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0000950137-08-001629.txt : 200802050000950137-08-001629.hdr.sgml
: 2008020520080205131744ACCESSION
NUMBER:0000950137-08-001629CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE:8-KPUBLIC
DOCUMENT COUNT:32CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT:20080205ITEM
INFORMATION:Regulation FD DisclosureITEM INFORMATION:Financial
Statements and ExhibitsFILED AS OF DATE:20080205DATE AS OF
CHANGE:20080205
FILER:
COMPANY DATA:COMPANY CONFORMED NAME:ARCH COAL INCCENTRAL INDEX
KEY:0001037676STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION:BITUMINOUS COAL
& LIGNITE SURFACE MINING [1221]IRS NUMBER:430921172STATE OF
INCORPORATION:DEFISCAL YEAR END:1231
FILING VALUES:FORM TYPE:8-KSEC ACT:1934 ActSEC FILE
NUMBER:001-13105FILM NUMBER:08575230
BUSINESS ADDRESS:STREET 1:CITY PLACE ONE STE 300STREET 2:ARCH
MINERAL CORPCITY:ST LOUISSTATE:MOZIP:63141BUSINESS
PHONE:3149942700
MAIL ADDRESS:STREET 1:CITYPLACE ONE SUITE 300STREET 2:ARCH
MINERAL CORPCITY:CREVE COEURSTATE:MOZIP:63141
FORMER COMPANY:FORMER CONFORMED NAME:ARCH MINERAL CORPDATE OF
NAME CHANGE:19970411
8-K1c23525e8vk.htmCURRENT REPORT
e8vk
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, DC 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section13 or 15(d)
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of report (Date of earliest event reported): February5,
2008 (February5, 2008)
Arch Coal, Inc.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Delaware
1-13105
43-0921172
(State or other jurisdiction of
incorporation)
(Commission File Number)
(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)
CityPlace One
One CityPlace Drive, Suite300
St. Louis, Missouri 63141
(Address, including zip code, of principal executive offices)
Registrants telephone number, including area code:
(314)994-2700
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is
intended to simultaneously satisfythe filing obligation of the
registrant under any of the following provisions:
o Written communications pursuant to Rule425 under the
Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
o Soliciting material pursuant to Rule14a-12 under the Exchange
Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule14d-2(b) under
the Exchange Act (17 CFR240.14d-2(b))
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule13e-4(c) under
the Exchange Act (17 CFR240.13e-4(c))
Item7.01 RegulationFD Disclosure.
On February5, 2008, Robert J. Messey, Senior Vice President and
Chief Financial Officer ofArch Coal, Inc., will deliver a
presentation at the Credit Suisse First Boston 2008 Energy
Summit,that will include written communication comprised of slides.
The slides from the presentation areattached hereto as Exhibit99.1
and are hereby incorporated by reference.
A copy of the slides will be available at
http://investor.archcoal.com/events.cfm for30days.
Item9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d)Exhibits
The following exhibits are attached hereto and furnished
herewith.
Exhibit
No. Description
99.1
Slides from the presentation at the Credit Suisse First Boston
2008 Energy Summit.
1
Signatures
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of
1934, the registrant has dulycaused this report to be signed on its
behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
Dated: February 5, 2008 Arch Coal, Inc.
By: /s/ Robert G. Jones
Robert G. Jones
Vice President Law, General Counsel andSecretary
2
ExhibitIndex
Exhibit
No. Description
99.1
Slides from the presentation at the Credit Suisse First Boston
2008 Energy Summit.
EX-99.12c23525exv99w1.htmSLIDES FROM PRESENTATION
exv99w1
Exhibit99.1
Credit Suisse First Boston 2008 EnergySummit
Robert J. Messey Senior Vice President andChief Financial
Officer
Vail, Colorado February5, 2008 0
Unearthing Value Arch Coal, Inc.
Slide 1
Forward-looking information
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that
is,statements related to future, not past, events. In this
context,forward-looking statements often address our expected
future businessand financial performance, and often contain words
such as expects,anticipates, intends, plans, believes, seeks, or
will.Forward-looking statements by their nature address matters
that are,to different degrees, uncertain. For us, particular
uncertaintiesarise from changes in the demand for our coal by the
domesticelectric generation industry; from legislation and
regulationsrelating to the Clean Air Act and other environmental
initiatives;from operational, geological, permit, labor and
weather-relatedfactors; from fluctuations in the amount of cash we
generate fromoperations; from future integration of acquired
businesses; and fromnumerous other matters of national, regional
and global scale,including those of a political, economic,
business, competitive orregulatory nature. These uncertainties may
cause our actual futureresults to be materially different than
those expressed in ourforward-looking statements. We do not
undertake to update ourforward-looking statements, whether as a
result of new information,future events or otherwise, except as may
be required by law. For adescription of some of the risks and
uncertainties that may affectour future results, you should see the
risk factors described fromtime to time in the reports we file with
the Securities and ExchangeCommission.
This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial
measures,including Adjusted EBITDA. These non-GAAP financial
measures are notmeasures of financial performance in accordance
with generallyaccepted accounting principles and may exclude items
that aresignificant in understanding and assessing our financial
results.Therefore, these measures should not be considered in
isolation oras an alternative to net income from operations, cash
flows fromoperations, earnings per fully-diluted share or other
measures ofprofitability, liquidity or performance under generally
acceptedaccounting principles. You should be aware that our
presentation ofthese measures may not be comparable to
similarly-titled measuresused by other companies. A reconciliation
of these financialmeasures to the most comparable measures
presented in accordancewith generally accepted accounting
principles has been included atthe end of this presentation.
Slide 2
Long-Term MacroFundamentals
Unearthing Value Arch Coal, Inc.
Slide 3
Developing nations will increase energy use, putting pressure
onglobal supplyElectricity Usage Passenger Vehicles per Capita
per1000 people
15,000 600U.S. U.S.Italy 12,000 Australia people Australia 450
9,000 U.K.S. Korea U.K.Russia Italy 300 -hours per capita 6,000
kilowatt S. Korea Malaysia cars per 1000 150 Russia3,000 Malaysia
Mexico Mexico
China0 0IndiaIndia China$0 0 0 0 0 $0
0 ,0 ,0 00 ,0 00 $10,000 $ 2 $ 30,000 $40,0 $ 10 $ 20 $ 30,000$
40,000GDP per capita (in U.S. $) GDP per capita (in U.S. $)Source:
United Nations Human Development Report 2005, Slide 42005 World
Development Indicators (World Bank)
The resurgence of resource nationalism threatens future U.S.
energysupply & securityOPEC will continue to increase its share
of theworld oil and liquid natural gas supply to more than
50percent by 2030Non-OPEC conventional crude oil and natural gas
productionexpected to peak in the next decade, further increasing
OPECsinfluenceSlide 5 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007
Coals advantage: abundant, secure and widely dispersedbillions
of tons Based on current production levels and proven
reserves,
of oil equivalent300 coal should outlast gas supplies and oil
reserves by morethan 2x and 4x, respectively200100
0 EuropeRussiaNorth AmericaMiddle EastChinaIndiaAfricaOther Asia
Central and South Pacific America
OilNatural GasCoalSlide 6 Source: Bank of America, BP
Statistical Review and Blackwell Energy Research
In the U.S., electric generation demand is projected to
outstripplanned supply growth
North American Reserve Margins Expected to Drop Below Target
Levels by:
2010
2009
California 2009 S. Nevada New England Arizona 2011 New Mexico
New York Rocky Mountain 2012
2009 2015
Slide 7 Source: NERC 2007 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
U.S. electric generation will increasingly rely on foreign
sources ofnatural gas| | |U.S. Natural Gas ProductionRigU.S.
Natural Gas SupplycfCount(in trillion cubic feet)| | |
30 2,0001,600 2920 22 1,2001000% 800 increase 10 in LNG
4000 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07U.S. Dry Gas Production
2006 2030
North American ProductionNorth American Rig CountImported
LNGSince 1997, U.S. dry natural Increased dependence on
gasproduction has remained foreign natural gas will be
essentiallyflat despite an required for natural gas just ever
increasingnumber of to maintain its share of rigs in production
electricgenerationSlide 8 Source: EIA, ACI and Baker Hughes
Significant nuclear expansion in the U.S. is necessary just
tomaintain shareU.S. Nuclear Capacity FactorsU.S. Nuclear
Plants14490%92% 10470%
50% 56% 30%1980 1990 2000 2002 2004 2007 2006 2030Since 2000,
growth in nuclear At least 40 new units are neededutilization has
been essentially flat just to maintain current share` New
plantadditions are unlikelyIt is unlikely that utilization can in
the next 10years increase further given refueling andmaintenance
requirements Current nuclear generating infrastructure is aging`By
2030, the average ageof nuclear infrastructurewill be 50years
oldSlide 9 Source: EIA and ACI
Coal is and will remain a vital part of Americasenergy future| |
|U.S. Energy ReservesU.S. Petroleum SupplyU.S. Fuel Prices
| | |(in trillion Btu) (million bbls per day) ($/mm Btu at
1/31/08)~20x $15.70
= $91 per bbl
~10xCoal: 94% DomesticI 40% $8.05
mp orts:60%$0. 85PRB 8800 Nat. Gas Crude Oil Coal Natural Gas
Oil Non-OPEC OPECDomesticFOB mineWellhead (Q2 2008)(Mar. 2008)Slide
10 Source: EIA, Platts, Argus Coal Daily and NYMEX
Climate Concerns and Clean-CoalTechnologies
Unearthing Value Arch Coal, Inc.
Slide 11
Since 1970, coal has been used in increasingly cleanways in the
U.S.200%+182% 150% Electricity from Coal
100%
50%
0%
-50% NOx -33% SO2 -55% -100% PM10 -83%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006
More progress is expected under existing regulations
Higher efficiency rates and the eventual deployment of
coalgasification technologies create opportunities for reducing
carbonintensity as well
Slide 12 NOx (Nitrogen Oxide), SO2 (Sulfur Dioxide),
PM10(Particulate Matter) Source: NMA
Developed world must adopt climate solutions and export these
todeveloping nations
CO2 Emission Trends
1990-2030
Rest of Non-OECD
China Rest of OECDUnited States
China likely surpassed the U.S. in greenhouse gas emissions in
2007 The growth rate ofgreenhouse gas emissions in developing
nations is likely to significantly exceed that of thedeveloped
world
Slide 13 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006, Guardian
Over the long-term, clean-coal technologies can broaden market
demandfor coal
A plug-in hybrid is one Coal can be converted Gasification
canreduce entry for coal into the into transportation fuel
emissions &transform transportation market coal into
pipeline-
` At current oil prices, quality naturalgas
` Likely to create coal-to-liquids significant facilities are
`IGCC & CCS should off-peakdemand economically enable coal to
for electricity feasible prosper in a carbon constrainedworld
Public policy initiatives aimed at domestic energy security
arespurring debate on energy legislation and incentives for
clean-coaltechnology development
Slide 14 Source: ACI
The U.S. coal industry is educating consumers about the benefits
of cleancoalIndustry advocacy campaign` High profile, national
scope` TV, radio, print, web, PRRaise awareness andincrease support
of coal asan American energy solution
www.americaspower.orgSlide 15 Source: ABEC
Current TrendsUnearthing ValueArch Coal, Inc.
Slide 16
U.S. coal market fundamentals strengthened in2007U.S. Coal
Industry Trends(2007, in million tons) Coal consumption rebounded
in 2007 due to more normal Consumption*+20 weather patterns -16.5
Production (ACI)Production declined due to supply constraints
andrationalizationSupply Decline by Region(2007, in million tons)
These trends reduced the 6 build ingenerator stockpiles 4 last
year20 Current stockpiles at year-endILB PRB (2)NAPPWBIT are
estimated at 51days(4)Other `Arch believes current levels (6)are in
target rangeLignite(8) (10)CAPPSlide 17 * Coal consumption for
electric generation Source: ACI, NMA and MSHA
Robust international coal markets are influencing domesticcoal
markets| |U.S. Export Growth
| |(in million tons)8049 592006 2007 2008EIn 2007, U.S. coal
exports reached highest level since 2000` Strong export market
driven by higher coalconsumption in Asia coupled with severe
supplyconstraints in traditional export nations` Weak U.S. dollar`
Growing global steel demandU.S. import growth muted as supply is
diverted intoseaborne trade In 2008, U.S. coal exports likely to
increasefurther` U.S. coal increasingly valued for purposes of
supply diversificationSlide 18 Source: ACI, NMA and MSHA
Largest coal plant build-out since 1980 will meaningfullyexpand
coal demandSupply Region for Coal Plants Under
Construction25,000
(Thousand) 20,000 15,000 Tons 10,000 5,000 0
2008 2009 2010 CAPP ILB PRB NAPPOther
Build-out of 14 GW translates into 50million tons of new annual
coal demand over next fouryears, with substantial increases in 2009
and 2010 Archs reserve base strategically positionedto service more
than two-thirds of these new plants Another 8 GWrepresenting an
additionalincremental 30million tonsis currently in advanced
permitting stagesSlide 19 Source: Platts and ACI
Arch CoalUnearthing ValueArch Coal, Inc.
Slide 20
About Arch Coal, Inc.One of the largest coal producers in the
U.S.Core business is providing U.S. power generators
withclean-burning, low-sulfur coal for electric generation`
Supplies roughly 12% of U.S. coal needs` Provides source fuel for
roughly 6% of U.S. electricityTalented workforce operates large,
modern mines Industry leader in mine safety, landreclamation and
productivitySlide 21 Source: ACI
Archs national scope of operations includes presence in four
majorU.S. coal basins
PowderRiver BasinIllinois Basin1. Coal Creek
2. Black Thunder 1 21 2 Knight Hawk3 4 214
3WesternBituminousCentral1. SkylineAppalachia2. Dugout 1. Mountain
Laurel3. Sufco 2. Coal-Mac4. West Elk 3. Cumberland River4.Lone
Mountain
3.0-Billion Ton Reserve BasePRBWBITILBCAPP(1,829) (464) (375)
(393)Slide 22 ComplianceLow-sulfurHigh-sulfurSource: ACI
Archs mines are strategically positioned to capitalize
onimproving market trends
Central Appalachia Western Bituminous Powder River Basin
Timing of start-up Supply pressures in Supply constraints of
Mountain Laurel eastern U.S. willand sufficient PRB longwall on
Oct. 1 influence pricing rail capacity should was advantageous
pullcoal east Arch benefits as Flexibility to sell largest producer
Arch should benefit 4-5milliontons into from rising international
and Recently signed domestic prices domestic met andsignificant
export business In discussions to PCI markets export coal
Slide 23 Source: ACI
Arch is advancing clean-coal technology development via a
CTLplant in WyomingU.S. Refined Product Consumption Mine-Mouth CTL
Plant(in million bbls per day, per EIA)
25.0 20.7Gasoline/DieselChemical Feedstock2006 2030
Domestic ImportsDomestic oil consumption needs are growing, and
increasingly will be Arch owns an equityinterest in supplied by
imports DKRW Advanced Fuels CTL can have a positive impact on
theProposed 13,000 bpd facility U.S. economy, security &
environment will capture CO2for enhanced oil recovery
Slide 24 Source: EIA and ACI
Archs future success hinges on three key pillarsof
performanceOperating the worlds safest coal mines
` Recognized in 2006 and 2007 with MSHAs Sentinels ofSafety
award for the nations safest underground coal mines` 2007 was
second-best year on record for total incident rate` Outperformed
the industry safety average by 2.5 times last yearActing as
responsible citizens and environmental stewards` Third National
Good Neighbor Award in past four years` 2007 was Archs best year on
record for environmental complianceAchieving industry-leading
productivity rates` Operated three of top ten most productive
longwall mines last year` Surface mines produced 170% more tons per
hour workedthan industry average in 2007
Slide 25 Source: ACI and Public Sources
Arch has one of the industrys strongest and cleanestbalance
sheetsNet Debt as Percentage of Capitalization83.9%58.0%46.2% 46.0%
38.9%12/31/00 12/31/02 12/31/04 12/31/06 12/31/07
Legacy Liabilities of Largest U.S. Coal CompaniesPro Forma
12/31/06 (in millions) $3,357Pension ReclamationPostretirement
Medical Workers Comp $1,296 $771 $397 $337Competitor #1 Competitor
#2 Competitor #3 Competitor #4 Arch CoalSlide 26 Source: SEC
filings compiled by ACI
Archs market-driven strategy in 2007 laid thefoundation for
future successReduced production targets during the weak market
cycle` Preserved value of reserves for future periodsLowered
capital spending
` Matched spending with market demand andreduced production
levels
Focused on cost control` Reoriented mines to maintain production
flexibilityRemained patient in sales contracting` Layered in sales
contracts as prices reboundedMaintained unpriced position for
future periodsOur strategy delivered Archs second-best year for
earningsdespite a weak coal cycle in much of 2007
Slide 27 Source: ACI
Arch expects a record performance in 2008Earnings Per
ShareEBITDA* Capital Spending**(in $millions) (in $millions)
$2.00-$2.50 $680-$790 $310-$340 $258 $472 $1.212007 2008E 2007
2008E 2007 2008EArch expects significant expansion in earnings per
shareand adjusted EBITDAContinue to execute a market-driven
approach with leverage tothe upside potential in coal
marketsUnpriced Volume 2008 2009 2010 (inmillion tons) 15-25 85-95
95-105Attractive valuation vis--vis coal peers* Refer to EBITDA
reconciliation at end of presentationSlide 28 ** Excluding reserve
additions Source: ACI
Arch continuously evaluates all avenues forvalue creationOrganic
Growth Strategic GrowthConsider acquisitions or other Invest in
core businesses to enhance profit growth andreturn on
capital,evaluate opportunities to further investments that
strategicallyfit, are accretive and create value upgrade and expand
reserve baseShareholder ReturnsMarket Expansion Capital Structure
EnhancementMaintain strong balance sheet, Consider investments to
expandmarket for coal (andimprove and consider other vehicles for
value creation, such as share coalsvalue proposition) through
Btu-conversion and other advanced coal technologiesrepurchases or
dividend increases,when advantageousSlide 29 Source: ACI
EBITDA Reconciliation ChartArch Coal, Inc.and
SubsidiariesReconciliation ofNon-GAAP Measures(In thousands, except
per share data)
Included in the accompanying release, we havedisclosed certain
non-GAAP measures as defined byRegulationG. The following
reconciles these items tonet income as reported under GAAP.
Adjusted EBITDA:
Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income beforethe effect of net
interest expense; income taxes; ourdepreciation, depletion and
amortization; expensesresulting from early extinguishment of debt;
and othernon-operating expenses.
Adjusted EBITDA is not a measure of financialperformance in
accordance with generally acceptedaccounting principles, and items
excluded to calculateAdjusted EBITDA are significant in
understanding andassessing our financial condition. Therefore,
AdjustedEBITDA should not be considered in isolation nor as
analternative to net income, income from operations, cashflows from
operations or as a measure of ourprofitability, liquidity or
performance under generallyaccepted accounting principles. We
believe thatAdjusted EBITDA presents a useful measure of ourability
to service and incur debt based on ongoingoperations. Furthermore,
analogous measures are used byindustry analysts to evaluate
operating performance.Investors should be aware that our
presentation ofAdjusted EBITDA may not be comparable to
similarlytitled measures used by other companies. The tablebelow
shows how we calculate Adjusted EBITDA.
Targeted Results Year Ended Year Ended December31,December31,
2008 2007 Low High (Unaudited) (Unaudited)
Net income $ 174,929 $ 290,000 $ 362,000 Income
tax(benefit)expense (19,850) 25,000 58,000 Interest expense,net
72,265 85,000 80,000 Depreciation, depletion andamortization
242,062 280,000 290,000 Expenses from earlydebt extinguishment and
other non-operating 2,273 -
Adjusted EBITDA $ 471,679 $ 680,000 $ 790,000
Slide 30
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