Dynamics of climate and world history

Climate: Past, Present & Future Division program

European Geosciences Union - Vienna 2011

Dynamics of climate and world historyDynamics of climate and world history

Valentin B. Sapunov, Lev N. KarlinValentin B. Sapunov, Lev N. KarlinRussian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg, RussiaPetersburg, [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] affiliations

Poster Presentation <221> on <04.04.2011> from <CLO>

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Poster presentation

Poster main pThe main historical events are connected both with solar activity The main historical events are connected both with solar activity (Tchijevsky, 1924) and with global temperatures. The last is controlled by and (Tchijevsky, 1924) and with global temperatures. The last is controlled by and tectonic processes but solar. The effect of volcano eruptions is significant too. tectonic processes but solar. The effect of volcano eruptions is significant too. The global climate is under control of factors having both earth and space origin. The global climate is under control of factors having both earth and space origin. Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold snap Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold snap began. began.

Poster main illustrations)



Abstract• The main historical events are connected both with solar activity (Tchijevsky, 1924) and with global temperatures. The last The main historical events are connected both with solar activity (Tchijevsky, 1924) and with global temperatures. The last

is controlled by and tectonic processes but solar. The effect of volcano eruptions is significant too. The global climate is is controlled by and tectonic processes but solar. The effect of volcano eruptions is significant too. The global climate is under control of factors having both earth and space origin. Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then under control of factors having both earth and space origin. Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold snap began. The communists historians suggested that world history is based on class struggle. Russian global cold snap began. The communists historians suggested that world history is based on class struggle. Russian scientists L.Gumilev (Gumilev, 1990) suggested such phenomena as “passionarity”. That is number of directed mutations scientists L.Gumilev (Gumilev, 1990) suggested such phenomena as “passionarity”. That is number of directed mutations stimulating locomotion activity of peoples and revolutionary emergent. Despite of the fact of great honor of Gumilev, stimulating locomotion activity of peoples and revolutionary emergent. Despite of the fact of great honor of Gumilev, author suggests impossibility on multiple directed mutations. The climate changes were more important for people author suggests impossibility on multiple directed mutations. The climate changes were more important for people migration. Fig. 2 summarized literature and Internet data on global temperature dynamics. migration. Fig. 2 summarized literature and Internet data on global temperature dynamics.

• Temperature decrease during 4 – 5 century after Christmas was prerequisite for decrease of agriculture of North Europe. Temperature decrease during 4 – 5 century after Christmas was prerequisite for decrease of agriculture of North Europe. That stimulated migrations of some peoples to Mediterranean. This stimulated falling dawn of old Roma. Social destruction That stimulated migrations of some peoples to Mediterranean. This stimulated falling dawn of old Roma. Social destruction of this society accelerated this process. Temperature increase during 9 – 10 centuries stimulated social progress at the of this society accelerated this process. Temperature increase during 9 – 10 centuries stimulated social progress at the North Europe. Old Russia was founded having capital in Staraya (Old) Ladoga. Then center migrated to more south cities North Europe. Old Russia was founded having capital in Staraya (Old) Ladoga. Then center migrated to more south cities such as Kiev and Moscow. Decrease of temperature in North hemisphere stimulated nomadic peoples of Asia for migration. such as Kiev and Moscow. Decrease of temperature in North hemisphere stimulated nomadic peoples of Asia for migration. The basis of their food industry was stock-breeding needing a waste pastures. Crop-breeding was unable for the nations. The basis of their food industry was stock-breeding needing a waste pastures. Crop-breeding was unable for the nations. Nomad aggression for Russia had tragic results. At last, Russia as a strong state got freedom from east occupation.Nomad aggression for Russia had tragic results. At last, Russia as a strong state got freedom from east occupation.

• The hot temperature limited ices boundary to north. Colonization of Greenland and North America by Vikings began. Some The hot temperature limited ices boundary to north. Colonization of Greenland and North America by Vikings began. Some centuries latter climate began colder and Greenland was transformed to Whiteland. Colonization was stopped. The back centuries latter climate began colder and Greenland was transformed to Whiteland. Colonization was stopped. The back discovery and colonization of America was begun at 1492 by Column. Great geographical discovers were directed to tropical discovery and colonization of America was begun at 1492 by Column. Great geographical discovers were directed to tropical regions. The temperature minimum (little ice age) was accorded to crisis of Middle Ages and begin of New Time. Cold time regions. The temperature minimum (little ice age) was accorded to crisis of Middle Ages and begin of New Time. Cold time stimulated social turn to capitalistic societies. The warming prolonged till 1997 and then temperature turned to cold stimulated social turn to capitalistic societies. The warming prolonged till 1997 and then temperature turned to cold (www.egu).(www.egu).

• Hence we would get a new understanding of world history as class struggle taking place in accordance to global climate and Hence we would get a new understanding of world history as class struggle taking place in accordance to global climate and ecological processes.ecological processes.



Materials and methods Present work is analysis of EGU and IMO Present work is analysis of EGU and IMO

climate change data for many years in climate change data for many years in connection with historical data summarized connection with historical data summarized by A.Tschizhevsky, L.Gumilev and so on.by A.Tschizhevsky, L.Gumilev and so on.



According to modern data

Climate is controlled by number of Climate is controlled by number of component. The main of them is abiotical. component. The main of them is abiotical. Interaction between humanity and climate is Interaction between humanity and climate is ecology of culture. Knowledge of its principle ecology of culture. Knowledge of its principle is way for insure sustanable development.is way for insure sustanable development.



Factors, controlling climateFactors, controlling climate: : abiotical, biotical, socialabiotical, biotical, social



The main principle of solar effect on human history was The main principle of solar effect on human history was suggested by A.Tschizhevskysuggested by A.Tschizhevsky



Physical factors of history were studied by L.GumilevPhysical factors of history were studied by L.Gumilev



Cyclical process of climate were suggested by Cyclical process of climate were suggested by K.KondratyevK.Kondratyev



Many years temperature dynamics



Temperature extremums and main historical events

Century min/max events• I max prosperity of Roma• V min following of Roma• IX max foundation of Russia• XII max colonization of America• XIII min distribution of Gold Orda• XV min 2nd colonization of America• XVII min revolutions in Europe• XX max !



Dynamic of world temperature 1700 – 2059 - old data and prognosis

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1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1997 2009 2050temperature



Conclusion• The aim of work is consideration of world temperature dynamics and its prediction

for all over the world and influence of climatic changes on world culture and economical processes. The global warming took place from 17 till the end of 20 centuries. The mechanisms of the process are obscure. But it is clear that abiotic factors controlling climate are most significant. The global fall of temperature began from 1997. The climate appear to be dependent from interaction between abiotical, biotical and social spheres of Earth. The system of all spheres is very stable. Human activity has no significant importance for global climate processes. The results of modern temperature decrease would not be significant for all humanity. The temperature in Arctic would increase. The Antarctic climate would be colder. The average world temperature would decrease and more variable. Modern science is able to predict climate change. But serious climate study must be free on politic end economic pressure.

• The cultural development as a reflection of climatic changes is shown in the work.



References

• Карлин Л.Н., Самусевич И.Н. Глобальный климат, история и культура // Общество. Среда. Развитие. 1, 2010, с. 130 – 138.

• В.Б.Сапунов. Грядет глобальное похолодание. М. АСТ, 2011, 249 с.

• V.B.Sapunov. Effect of global climate on termites population. Effect of termites population on global climate // EGU General Assembly, Vol. 12, EGU2010-103.

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Dynamics of climate and world history