Research By:UDIT JAIN, DR.P.K.SARKAR, ANUPAM VIBHUTIDEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT PLANNINGSCHOOL OF PLANNING & ARCHITECTURE, NEW DELHI

DYNAMIC MODELFOR BENCHMARKING OF

PERSONAL RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM

BACKGROUND• Personal rapid transit (PRT) is one of the latest trends in urban publictransport.• It can be implemented either around a particular route like MRTS or in astand alone grid network.• It is a public transport which gives the joy of travelling like in personal car.• It has small automated electric ‘podcars’ to provide taxi-like services forindividuals or small groups.• The ‘podcars’ run on an exclusive guide way which provide uninterrupted &sustainable journey.• The PRT stations are off-line stations which ensure non stop point to pointjourney.

URBAN RAIL URBAN RAIL + PRT STAND ALONE LOOPS OF PRT

CASE STUDY AREA -DWARKA, DELHI

• 15 sectors out of total 29sectors were selected forplanning of PRT in Dwarkasub city.• Household survey,establishment survey,willingness to shift (WTS)and willingness to pay (WTP)surveys were conducted forthe estimation of traveldemand.• Based on the Travel Demandand the Origin DestinationMatrix obtained, a network of18km was planned to cater tothe Intra Dwarka Trips in theselected Case Study Area.

MRTS STATIONMRTS ROUTEPRT ROUTE

TRAVEL DEMAND ASSESSMENT

• Based on the analysis the base year trips were calculated to be 6,08,392trips/day.

• Binary Logit models were built to estimate the percentage shift from the baseyear trips to PRT from each of the existing mode.• The total shift to PRT was 36.6% and the estimated travel demand was

2,22,782 trips/day• Average trip length was found to be 1.6km• A route network of 18km length was planned such that it compliments theexisting metro line and covers all major residential and commercial areas.FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

• A detailed financial feasibility was carried out for the project using discountedanalysis technique.• NPV was calculated to be 1324.5 Crores and IRR 18%• Following were the inputs taken into consideration while conducting thefinancial feasibility

FACTORS VALUE

TIM

E CONCESSION PERIOD 30 YrsCONSTRUCTION PERIOD 2 Yrs

OPE

RATI

ONA

L HEADWAY 80 mSPEED 30 kmphNO. OF PASS IN EACH POD 4 PersonAVG TRIP LENGTH 1.6 kmROUTE LENGTH 18 km

DEM

AND

BASE YEAR TRIPS 6,07,496% TRIPS SHIFT TO PRT AT MINFARE 36.6 %DESIRED FARE PER KM Rs 10ESTIMATED DEMAND(TRIPS/DAY) 2,22,465RIDERSHIP GROWTH RATE 5 %% INCREASE IN FARE EVERY 3YEARS 20 %

COST

S

CAPITAL COST PER KM 44.48 crOPERATION & MAINTENANCECOST (O&M)a) MAN POWER COST 29 cr/yrb) ELECTRICITY COST 9.9 cr/yrc) AMC & ROYALTY 5% of Fare

FINA

NCI

AL

DEBT-EQUITY RATIO 2 : 1INTEREST RATE 13 %LOAN REPAYMENT PERIOD 10 YrsTAX HOLIDAY 100% for5 YrsTAX EXEMPTION 30 % for 5YrsTAX RATE 35 %DEPRECIATION RATE (PODS) 20 %DEPRECIATION RATE (CIVILSTRUCTURE) 5 %DISCOUNT RATE 10 %

INPUT FACTORS FOR FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

DYNAMIC MODEL• Based on the operational & financial feasibility, seventeen factors were selectedand categorized under three planning heads –1. DEMAND PARAMETERS2. OPERATIONAL PARAMETERS3. FINANCIAL PARAMETERS• An interactive model was developed using visual basic in MS-Excel which can beused as a benchmarking tool for Personal Rapid Transit Systems.• Each of these parameters have several factors, which can be tweaked usingsliders attached to each factor.• The model gives outputs like Base Year Trips, Base Year Travel Demand, Numberof PODS required, PRT System Capacity, NPV and IRR of the project.• The model can be used to see how a change in any of the factors will impact theoperational and financial feasibility of the project.• It can also be used to carry out a sensitivity analysis or to justify thedevelopment of a PRT system according to the needs of some other area.

DYNAMIC MODEL

BENCHMARKS ANDCONCLUSIONSAssuming that IRR of 18% isacceptable to the investors,relationships have beendeveloped using the modelbetween1. POPULATION & FARE2. DEMAND & FAREFor different route length and fare/km, population and demand have been calculatedsuch that the IRR of the project remains 18%.•To demonstrate the type of inferences that can be drawn from the graph, see thepurple line of Route length 15km.•If the Route Length of the PRT system is 15km, then at least 4 Lakh Population isrequired to maintain an IRR of 18% and the Fare should be Rs 20 per km.•If one wishes to run the PRT system at a minimum fare of Rs 10 per km, then 5.5Lakh population is required for a PRT Route Length of 15km

• The Travel Demand is a function of willingness to shift to PRT system and the baseyear trips.• Travel Demand decreases as the fare per km increases because the willingness toshift to PRT system decreases with the increase in fare.• The significance of the graph is that a project may yield an 18% IRR even at Rs 30per km, but the demand served would be very low as compared to the demandserved if the fare would have been Rs 10 per km.

BENCHMARKS AND CONCLUSIONS

BENCHMARKS AND CONCLUSIONS

To observe how the IRR and NPV vary with the change in Fare per km, two graphshave been generated for a fixed route length of 18km which is the proposed routelength for Dwarka.Similar graphs may be generated for any route length, but the shape of the graph andthe relationship remains same. Both the graphs form a bell shaped curve.It should be noted from the inferences of Figure 6 that even though the NPV and IRRare higher at Fare Rs 20 per km, the travel demand served decrease as the Fareincrease from Rs 10 per km to Rs 20 per km.

BENCHMARKS AND CONCLUSIONS

• These graphs can be used for quick assessment of fare per km and routelength required to achieve an IRR of 18% if the base year trips or the traveldemand is known in an area.• The dynamic model can be used to carry out the detailed financial feasibilityand the sensitivity analysis for any PRT project at an area level or city level.• This dynamic benchmarking tool can be used as a decision support tool whileconsidering any new PRT system in an area or a city.

THANK YOUUDIT JAINuditjain.er.pl@gmail.com