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Vol 1 Issue 6 March 2010

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ISSUE MARCH 2010

A R T I C L E S

Afghan imbroglio

O T H E R S

O T H E R S

Indo-Afghan relations:An Indian view 10Dr. Vedpratap Vaidik

Afghanistan:Future scenario 16Lt. Gen. (Retd.) R. Sawhney

Failing campaign? 25Brig. (Retd.) Rahul Bhonsle

Dismantle PAKISTANIfulcrum 30Haroun Mir

America in Afghanistan:operat ional dil emmas 32Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Afsir Karim

Dont panic likethe rest 36Dr. Harsh V. Pant

Afghanistan:Liberati on in sight? 40Brig. (Retd.) Chitranjan Sawant

Foreign Investment:Iffy Future 44Ramtanu Maitra

Afghanistan: time tocurb the law of inert ia 50Luis Peral

Pak Agenda 57Brig. (Retd.) Arun Sahgal

Crucible or cauldron? 63Prof. KalimBahadur

Western alliance:end of the tryst? 68Vishal Chandra

convergence of

internati onal interests 72Nivedita Das Kundu

Afghan Chronicle 82Rohit Srivastava

Mil an 2010 7676DEFEXPO 2010 7878NEWSdefence and securi ty 86

JOKES 8585CARTOON 8888

contents

AFGHANISTAN SPECIAL

March 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT6 March 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT 7

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he declaration of President Barack Hussein Obamas Af-Pakpolicy and the successful conclusion of the London Conference onAfghanistan are a welcome development. They are correct steps

in the right direction. However, the current situation in Afghanistan hasthrown up several new challenges. It is nearly impossible to wind up thewar and stabilize Afghanistan without analyzing these challenges andfinding their appropriate answers. irst of all, the proposed withdrawal ofthe International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) from Afghanistan byJuly 2011 has provided a sharp focus to the war on terror going on listlesslyfor the last eight years. George Bush, like the well known character of theMahabharatWar,Abhimanyu, did enter the strategic trap (Chakravyuh )of Afghanistan but did not know how to wriggl e out of it. He and some ofhis officials had reconciled to the possibility of staying in Afghanistan forat least a decade or so. Obamas bold decision and the firm declaration ofthe beginning of the withdrawal of the Western forces by July 2011 had adramatic political impact on the people of Afghanistan. It has hit the veryfoundation of the resurgence of the Taliban.

Afghan imbroglio

Dr. Vedpratap Vaidik

NEW CHALLENGES

T

An Indian ViewAn Indian ViewIndo-Afghan relations:Indo-Afghan relations:


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Afghan imbroglio SMOULDERING

A F G HA N I S T A NF U T U R E S C E N A R I O

:

The moment US President Barack Obama set a date for withdrawalof US troops from Afghanistan the world felt that he had lost the plot.He did half a genuflexion to the tenets of counter-insurgency byincreasing the number of troops by 30,000 but the larger picturehas become kaleidoscopic. One thing is clear, if the US and its alliescut and run India must prepare itself to confront a cut-throat WahabiCaliphate stretching from the Iranian border to Pakistans Punjab afar cry from the eclectic, friendly Kabuliwalas of yore.

Lt. Gen. (Retd.)

R.K. Sawhney


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Afghan imbroglio NATO STRATEGY

failingfailingcampaign?campaign? Brig. (Retd.) Rahul BhonsleIf Mullah Omar, the one-eyed Amir of the Afghan Shura operating out ofIf Mullah Omar, the one-eyed Amir of the Afghan Shura operating out ofa Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence safe haven in Quetta, playsa Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence safe haven in Quetta, playsall the aces he is being dealt by the back-pedalling Western Allianceall the aces he is being dealt by the back-pedalling Western Alliancewithfinesse, he can trigger a Saigon-style stampede with US troopswithfinesse, he can trigger a Saigon-style stampede with US troopshanging on by theirfingernails to helicopters. India was not invited tohanging on by theirfingernails to helicopters. India was not invited tothe Istanbul conclave and was isolated at the London meeting when itthe Istanbul conclave and was isolated at the London meeting when itsaid that there is no such thing as a good Taliban. India must preparesaid that there is no such thing as a good Taliban. India must prepareits own defences against the emerging Wahabi Caliphate next door.its own defences against the emerging Wahabi Caliphate next door.

March 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT 25

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DEFT DIPLOMACY

dismantle

P A K I S T A N IP A KI S T A NIA K I S T A N IP A KI S T A NIA K I S T A N IP A KI S T A NIHaroun Mir

If President Obama wants his Af-Pak policy to succeed hewill have to step on Pakistans tail and force it to stop givingsafe havens to all terrorist groups on both sides of the DurandLine. If he allows himself to be led up the garden path like how

Musharraf did to Bush by serving up the small fry and protectingthe masterminds, the consequences not just for Afghanistanand Pakistan but the whole world will be horrendous.

fulcrum

Afghan imbroglio

March 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT30

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Afghan imbroglio HIGH STAKES

MAJ. GEN. (RETD.)

AFSIR KARIM

operational dilemmasoperational dilemmasin Afghanistan:in Afghanistan:

The US-led InternationalSecurity Force sweep intothe Taliban strongholdin Helmand province isa study in microcosm ofAmerican policy for theregion. To surround 1000Talibanfighters in a townand then allow as many asthose who wanted to leave,to go with their weapons,was as harebrained as itcould get. To be able to

ever corner that many fullyarmed guerrilla fighters theUS will need 20,000 troopsif the British counter-terrorparadigm in Malaya is thebenchmark. Chinas MaoZedong and Cubas CheGuevara studies say 50,000will now be needed to do thesame job.Ame r i caA me r i c a


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Afghan imbroglio INDIAN OPTIONS

like the restlike the rest

Dr. Harsh V. Pant

It will be the height of naivette if Indians believe that there is noconnection or orchestration between the Pakistan governmentsinsistence on talks on Kashmir and much more and the openlystated possibility that not doing so will encourage the terrorists.The Pune blast underscores all the vile games that are beingplayed with the blood of innocents. India must defend itself andits strategic interests with everything at its command. We arenot a soft nation but we have a long way to go to ensure failsafeinternal security. Once that happens the terrorists and theirmasters in Pakistan will lose the leverage.


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Afghan imbroglio STORMI NG THE CITADEL

Liberation in sight?

Forget history, wherein the tactics andunderlying principles of guerrilla warfareas enunciated by Mao Zedong and CheGuevara the early practitioners of thecraft are embedded, the Americans andtheir allies appear to have lost track ofgeography as well. They have beguntheir campaign against the Talibanat Merja in Helmand province in thesame ham-handed manner as they did

in Somalia in East Africa many yearsearlier. Here the warlike tribes have acode all their own which makes it verydifficult for foreigners tofight sustainedcampaigns and win. The British shouldknow.

Brig. (Retd.)

Chitranjan Sawant, VSM

AFGHANISTAN:


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Afghan imbroglio SECURING CIVI LIANS

time to curb the law of inertia

Afghanistan:

Luis Peral

World history is replete withexamples that Nation building hasnever been accomplished by anexternal or occupying power. Activesupport and participation of thelocal people only can initiate theprocess of reconciliation, transforma war-ravaged Nation and lead it toa path of Peace and Progress.


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Afghan imbroglio FOXY MOVES

Brig. (Retd.)

Arun Sahgal

Recent developments in the Af-Pak region are pointers to devious games

of intrigue and counter-intrigue being played by all the stakeholders,

from inside and outside of Afghanistan. Pakistans aspiration of regainingstrategic depth in Afghanistan, is at the centre of this conundrum being

created by naked ambitions of Pakistan military honchos. Indian strategic

interests must be protected and strategic assets created to offset insidious

developments that may seriously impact Indian security.

Pakagenda


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Afghan imbroglio TORMENTED STATE

Crucibleor

There is no gainsaying the fact that Afghanistan has left an indeliblestamp on history. Not for nothing has it been described as thegraveyard of dynasties as one or another of its neighbours havetried to impose their own jurisdiction on the land and its people.This time Sunni Islam, laced with Saudi Wahabism has spawneda cult that threatens to hold sway far beyond what former Britishcommissioner Olof Caroe hinted in his bookThe Pa tha nswhenhe wrote po l itic a l am a lga m a t ion , shou ld i t eve r c om e , wou ld takea very d i ffe ren t sha p e , Peshaw ar wo u ld a b sorb Kab u l , no t Ka b u l

Peshawar

cauldron?Prof. Kalim Bahadur


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Afghan imbroglio

Nivedita Das Kundu

convergenceof internationalinterestsinterests

In the midst of thepermutations andcombinations of

the strategic self-interests of thenations borderingAfghanistan andon the extendedfrontiers Indiasuddenly finds itselfgroping for spaceon the margins.In all theflurry ofdiplomatic activityone cardinalfactor has becomesubmerged the terrorists aredictating theagenda. The

fallaciousness ofdoing business withthe good Talibanis staring everyonein the face and itcould become theenduring tragedyof the region as awhole that Indiashould be the oddman out.

NEW GAME


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lit toral navies MARITIME CHALLENGES

MILAN 2010:ILAN 2010:MILAN 2010:Humanitarian AssistanceHumanit arian Ass ist ance

Naval Cooperation for

Rohit Srivastava

Navies have distinct responsibility of carrying outdiplomatic relations with other nations. Milan 2010 was aneffort to develop interoperability between Asian nations forcommon maritime interest and challenges.


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DEFEXPO 2010report

DEFEXPO 2010Recently concluded DEFEXPO, largest in all its editions, mostattended and covered, was befitting to the worlds largest defenceequipment importer. Enthusiasm and bonhomie shown by the defencemanufacturers from across the globe to India and nascent Indiandefence industry is testimony of their desire to play long innings here.A win-win situation for all. The big news that Indias projected arms spendover the next 10 years is going to be to the tune of USD 100 billion isalready buzzing. Now time will tell how well India plays its cards.


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DEFEXPO 2010report

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ILL-STARRED SAGAAfghan imbroglio

Based on true life-story and observations of an Indian who lived inAfghanistan for 37 years, sharing his experiences withDSA correspondentRohit Srivastava for this Afghanistan special.

Afghan ChronicleAfghan Chroniclefghan ChronicleAfghan ChronicleMarch 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT82 March 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT 83

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j okes LAUGH N RELAX!

J o k e s o f t h e m o n t h


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Maoists kill 24 security personnel in WestBengalOn 15th February Eastern Frontier Rifles (EFR), lost at least 24 ofits personnel in attack on EFR camp at Sildha in West MidnaporeDistrict in West Bengal by Communist Party of India-Maoist(CPI-Maoist) cadres. The attack was claimed by Maoists politburomember Koteshwar Rao alias Kishan ji. The maoists first attackedthe camp with bombs, then indiscriminate firing on unsuspectingpersonnel. Maoists took away arms of security forces with them.They planted landmines on roads to prevent any quick chase fromsecurity forces.

Maoists kill innocent villagers in Bihar

In an incidence of revenge killing Maoists attacked Phulwariavillage in Jamui District on 17 February costing 12 lives. It is beingsuspected that the village was not sympathetic towards Maoistsand villagers were involved in spying for police. Around 150 armedMaoists attacked unarmed villagers at night. Police suspects theincident could be related to the killing of Maoists in the past.

Bomb blast in Pune, 9 killed, 60 injuredAfter a lull of 14 months terror again struck India, killing nine peoplein the German Bakery in Koregaon Park in Pune at 7.30 pm (IST)on February 13, including two foreigners. The bomb was kept in abag under the table. Incidentally the bakery is located near the JewishChabad House. Investigation suggests use of RDX through IED.

DEFENCE AND SECURITY

The Bakery was also very close to the Osho Ashram, which wasvisited by Lashkar-e-Toeba (LeT) operative David ColemanHeadley. Abdur Rehman Makki, the deputy to the Jamaat-ud-Daawas (JuD) warned that Pune could be a target onFebruary 5 in Islamabad in Pakistan.

The responsibility of the attack was taken by an unknownPakistan-based terrorist outfit Lashkar-e-Toeba al-Almi,through an operative named Abu Jindal. Indias refusal to

discuss Kashmir with Pakistan was the reason behind thebombing claimed by him in his message to media. IndianMujahideen Kashmir also claimed the responsibility. Al-Qaedaaffiliated Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) commanderMuhammad Ilyas Kashmiri was reported to have sent ane-mail to a Pakistani journalist, claiming responsibility for theattack. So many claimants for one attack suggest diversionarytactics by the terror groups to avoid any direct blame.

KLNLF puts down armsThe Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills Liberation Front in apublic ceremony laid down arms on February 11, at Kasastadium in the Diphu area of Karbi Anglong. Hage Khaathar,groups acting chairman, with his top leaders includingcommander-in-chief Songja Timong and general secretaryThong Teron, with 416 cadres. This is considered a verysignificant development as the insurgent groups are comingforward to lay down arms. Arrest of many top leaders fromULFA is turning the tide in favour of peace.

n e w s

Groups across the border ready toperpetrate terrorist acts: Prime MinisterInaugurating the Chief Ministers Conference on InternalSecurity in New Delhi on February 7, Prime MinisterManmohan Singh, said, terrorists from across the border areready to perpetrate terrorist acts in our country and Jammuand Kashmir bears the brunt of the acts of these groups.

There has been decline in the number of terrorist incidents from2008 to 2009 in Jammu and Kashmir. He expressed his concernat the increase in the number of infiltration bids. North eastand Left-Wing Extremism are other major threats to nation, hefurther added.

Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram, called Pakistan-basedterrorist outfits, dark forces, which were implacably opposedto India. Their weapons are mayhem and violence, and theirgoal is forcible annexation of Kashmir. Let me make it clear thatthese dark forces will not succeed in their designs, he furthersaid.

BSF to add another 29 battalionsCentre has approved additional 29 battalions, around 29,000personnel in coming years. Border Security Force (BSF) ispremier border guarding force manning borders with Bangladeshand Pakistan with additional internal security responsibilities.

Indo-Bangladesh border would get around 16 battalions to man

riverine areas, rest will be to provide rest and recuperation tofatigued battalions. The force needs reserve battalions to decreasefatigue and improve efficiency. Minister of State for HomeMr. Ajay Maken, speaking at the Passing-Out-Parade of a freshbatch of 129 BSF officers at Tekanpur in Madhya Pradesh, onFebruary 20. Two battalions have been raised last year and sevenare expected during 2010-2011.

To cater for additional administrative requirement, three frontier

headquarters and seven sector headquarters will come up,Mr. Maken added.

Indian Navys Fleet Tanker launched in ItalyThe first of the two Fleet Tankers (Yard 6186) for the IndianNavy was launched at a colourful ceremony at Muggiano, Italybeing built at M/s Fincantieri Shipyard. The ship has beenconstructed using modern and state-of-the-art ship constructionmethods and concepts with double hull configuration,which provides greater safety against accidental oil spillagein accordance with latest MARPOL regulations. The trials ofthe ship will start in April 2010 and delivery of the ship andcommissioning is scheduled in India in the later part of 2010.The second Fleet Tanker is under construction at the FincantieriYard of Sestri Ponente, Genoa, and is scheduled for delivery in2011. The ship, christened Deepak was launched byMrs. Farida Khan, wife of His Excellency Shri Arif S. Khan, theIndian Ambassador in Rome, who was the Chief Guest.

Be globally competitive: Antony to DRDOWe want the private sector to play a more prominent role inthe defence sector. We are revising the Defence ProcurementPolicy. Our aim is to motivate private companies to invest morefinancial and human resources in R&D, speaking on the threeday DRDO Directors Conference, in Delhi, Defence MinisterMr. A.K. Antony said.

Speaking further Antony said, With increasing participationof foreign companies and the private sector, organisations likeDRDO are left with no choice, but to be globally competitive.

DRDO has had tremendous growth in 50 years and itsachievements span the fields of missile development, electronics,tactical weapons and the development of critical defencetechnologies for our Armed Forces. DRDO has also played a keyrole in the launch ofINS Arihant, Indias first nuclear poweredsubmarine. The successful test of the Interceptor missile inendo and exo atmospheric roles has enhanced Indias capabilityin Ballistic Missile Defence Capability. The development ofindigenous surface to air missile systems Akash and its offshootsof Weapon Locating Radar and 3D surveillance radar will boost

our defence preparedness. Recently, DRDO has also handed over45 MBTs and six stations of Divya Drishtito our Armed Forces.

If DRDO is to m eet its mandate of providing the worlds bestequipment to our Armed Forces. DRDO will have to become aforward-looking and a receptive organisation and not remainrooted to old mindsets, he pointed out.

NAVY INDUCTS MiG-29KThe 19th day of February 2010, was marked with the take off-ofthe Indian Navys new fighter aircraft - the MiG-29K with its fullafterburners. The new fighter displayed its agility by breakinginto an almost vertical climb within seconds after take-off. Thegrand ceremony to formally induct MiG-29K Air DominanceFighter aircraft, into the Indian Navy, was held at INS Hansa,Vasco da Gama, Goa.

With todays induction of the MiG-29K, coupled with futureinductions of aircraft carriers our navys capability will see aquantum jump, Honble Defence Minister Mr. A.K. Antony,the Chief Guest for the ceremony, said in his inaugural address.He stated that such an addition to our inventory was in factoverdue as the operational role of the Indian Navy has increasedmanifold.

The new MiG-29K belongs to the 4+ generation and is capable offulfilling multiple roles. The new aircraft is more than30 per cent heavier than the MiG-29B (IAF). The MiG-29K willbe equipped with anti-aircraft Beyond Visual Range Missiles,guided Anti-Ship Missiles, smart guided-bombs and rockets.Computers proliferate all the systems on board the MiG-29K,including weapon systems, navigation systems, instrumentation,

flight controls and safety systems. The pilots helmet is equippedwith advanced features permitting the pilot to shoot a targetby merely looking at it. With all these systems, the MiG-29K isindeed a fighter to reckon with and is arguably one of the best inthe sub-continent today.

The Indian Navy has decided to go ahead with its expansionplans at the Dabolim airport. Preparations are underway tobuild a Shore Based Test Facility (SBTF) which will be used byits Light Combat Aircrafts (LCAs) and MiG-29K fighter jets.Commanding Officer (CO) of the INS Hansa, Captain SurendraAhuja, said that the SBTF in India will be only the second of itskind in the world, with Russia being the only ot her country tohave this facility.

Since the MiG-29Ks flight operation on the aircraft carrierwill be in the Short Take Off But Arrested Landing (STOBAR)configuration, two wire arresting systems are also being set up atthe INS Hansa naval base.


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cartoon LAUGH N RELAX!

March 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT88

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