AUA Hellas

Christos A. Karavitis

Stavros Alexandris

Vassilia Fassouli

Dimitris Tsesmelis

Dimitris Stamatakos Nikos Skondras

Agricultural Agricultural UniversityUniversity of Athens of Athens

HellasHellas

Drought Vulnerability IndexDrought Vulnerability Index

AUA Hellas

Assessment MethodologyAssessment Methodology

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

Definition of DroughtDefinition of Drought

A creeping phenomenon, a “non-event”

• Operational definitions attempt to demarcate the severity, onset and termination point of droughts

• Conceptual definitions attempt to identify the boundaries of the drought event

AUA HellasCopyright © 2004 National Drought Mitigation Center

AUA Hellas

Water DeficienciesWater Deficiencies

AUA Hellas

Drought

• a usually unexpected and unpredicted time period of abnormal dryness which affects water supply" (Grigg, N.S., 1988).

• The state of adverse and wide spread hydrological, environmental, social and economic impacts due to less than generally anticipated water quantities (Karavitis, 1992)

AUA Hellas

Social and Economic Drought /Water resources Engineering

• Gap between supply and demand of economic goods such as – water,

– food,

– raw materials,

– hydroelectric power,

– transportation

• depends on the time and space processes of supply and demand

• Social Stresses – Economic impacts

AUA Hellas

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

[a][a] Fragile Physical EnvironmentFragile Physical Environment

= environmental degradation= environmental degradation

= lack of ecosystem resilience= lack of ecosystem resilience

= history of extreme hydrological events= history of extreme hydrological events

[b][b] Fragile EconomyFragile Economy

= economic inequalities/disparities= economic inequalities/disparities

= inadequate funding= inadequate funding

[c][c] Lack of Local InstitutionsLack of Local Institutions

= lack of social resilience= lack of social resilience

= poor social protection= poor social protection

= marginalization= marginalization

= capacity for recuperability= capacity for recuperability

[d][d] Lack of PreparednessLack of Preparedness

= inadequate warning systems= inadequate warning systems

= lack of training= lack of training

= lack of community mobilization= lack of community mobilization

AUA Hellas

DROUGHT FORECASTINGDROUGHT FORECASTING

• Statistical predictions: based on lagged relationships between regional meteorological patterns (i.e. rainfall) and actual data.

• Probabilistic predictions: by trying to estimate the mathematical probability of a given phenomenon in a certain time frame based usually on analysis of time series data.

• Deterministic predictions: which attempt to model important features of the existing system and provide a basis for contingency analysis through simulation

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Years

0

2

4

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Pe

rce

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mm

Percentage of rain days with rain more than 20 Percentage of rain days with rain more than 20

mm from 1891 to 2004 over mm from 1891 to 2004 over Athens (NOA)Athens (NOA)

AUA Hellas

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Years

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Pe

rce

nta

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mb

er

of

da

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pre

cip

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tio

n >

30

mm

Percentage of rain days with rain more than 30 Percentage of rain days with rain more than 30

mm from 1891 to 2004 over mm from 1891 to 2004 over Athens (NOA)Athens (NOA)

AUA Hellas

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Years

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Pe

rce

nta

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of

nu

mb

er

of

da

ys w

ith

pre

cip

ita

tio

n >

50

mm

Percentage of rain days with rain more than Percentage of rain days with rain more than

50 mm from 1891 to 2004 over 50 mm from 1891 to 2004 over Athens (NOA)Athens (NOA)

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

Cook et al., 2004Cook et al., 2004

Percent area affected by drought (PDSI) Percent area affected by drought (PDSI)

AUA Hellas

• Prevailing crisis management attitude

• Natural Hazards Emergency Response Procedures

• Protocols for Processes and Procedures

• Create a wider menu of options and alternatives

Why are Drought Contingency Why are Drought Contingency

Policies Needed?Policies Needed?

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

Drought Drought FloodingFlooding

Pro

ba

bil

ity

Pro

ba

bil

ity

P (

x)

P (

x)

XX (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.)(e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.)

Coping rangeCoping range

Drought vulnerability is a variable.Drought vulnerability is a variable.

Adapted from work by Barry Smit, University of GuelphAdapted from work by Barry Smit, University of Guelph

Within every society, Within every society,

there is a certain capacity there is a certain capacity

to cope with drought.to cope with drought.

Societal changes can Societal changes can

increase or decrease increase or decrease

this coping range.this coping range.

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

Coordinator:Coordinator:

Ass. Ass. ProfProf.. Christos A. KaravitisChristos A. Karavitis

AAgricultural gricultural

UUniversity of niversity of

AAthens thens

EE--mailmail: : ckaravitis@aua.grckaravitis@aua.gr

TECHNOLOGIES FOR WATER TECHNOLOGIES FOR WATER

RECYCLING AND REUSE IN LATIN RECYCLING AND REUSE IN LATIN

AMERICA CONTENT: ASSESSMENT, AMERICA CONTENT: ASSESSMENT,

DECISION TOOLS AND DECISION TOOLS AND

IMPLEMENTABLE STRATEGIES IMPLEMENTABLE STRATEGIES

UNDER AN UNCERTAIN UNDER AN UNCERTAIN FUTUREFUTURE

http://www.coroadohttp://www.coroado--project.euproject.eu

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

Methodological Framework

• Drought Impact database

• Impact assessment-Resilience

• Vulnerability assessment

• Vulnerability visualization

AUA Hellas

Interdependencies of Impacts

EcologyEcology EconomyEconomy SocietySociety

Ecological StateEcological State

Drought induced Changes of Water Quality and Water QuantityDrought induced Changes of Water Quality and Water Quantity

Ecological ContinuityEcological Continuity

Damage to animal speciesDamage to animal species

Damage to plant Damage to plant

communitiescommunities

Use Value of WaterUse Value of Water

Costs of Water SupplyCosts of Water Supply

Other economic effectsOther economic effects

HealthHealth

ConflictsConflicts

Quality of LiveQuality of Live

Demand for Evaluation Criteria (Indicators, Indices)Demand for Evaluation Criteria (Indicators, Indices)

AUA Hellas

Primary Meteorological, Agricultural or Hydrological Drought Indices

• Percent of Normal

• Deciles

• Palmer Drought Index– PDSI, PHDI, CMI

• Surface Water Supply Index

• Standardized Precipitation Index (PSI)

• Vegetation indices (NDVI, VCI, SVI)

• U.S. Drought Monitor– Composite index approach

AUA HellasFrom V. Yevyevich and E. Vlachos, 1983; C. A. Karavitis and N.SFrom V. Yevyevich and E. Vlachos, 1983; C. A. Karavitis and N.S. Grigg, 1992, 1999. Grigg, 1992, 1999

AUA Hellas

TOOLBOX FOR SUPPLY

MANAGEMENT RESPONSES

AUA Hellas

TOOLBOX FOR DEMANDMANAGEMENT RESPONSES

AUA Hellas

TOOLBOX FOR IMPACT MINIMIZATION RESPONSES

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

Synoptic table on mitigation practices

applied in drought periods

SEE Drought Impacts Policy Action

Countries Supply Enhancement Demand Reduction Impact Minimization infrastucture

Slovenia Drainage systems Irrigation Retention of snow infrastructure

Reservoirs, dams etc Tillage Establishment of the windbreakmaintance needs

GreeceReservoirs, dams etc

No irrigation possible in drought

periodsCrisis management

Improvement of the existing

maintenance procedures, conservation,

groundwater use, and emergency water

hauling by ships

WD -WS = DEFICIT COST

Announcement of master

plan 2008

Public information campaign on water

conservation, rationing water

new dams construction

FYROM

Albania

AUA Hellas

FeedbackFeedback……..

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

The relation between DVI components and drought aspectsThe relation between DVI components and drought aspects

AUA Hellas

Components:Components:

1. SPI 6 and SPI 12 1. SPI 6 and SPI 12 –– Agricultural and non Agricultural and non

agricultural useagricultural use

2. Supply and Demand 2. Supply and Demand –– Description of Supply Description of Supply

capacity and demand coveragecapacity and demand coverage

33. Impacts . Impacts –– Description of loses due to Supply Description of loses due to Supply ––

Demand deficitsDemand deficits

44. Infrastructure . Infrastructure –– Level of deficiencyLevel of deficiency

AUA Hellas

StepsSteps

1. SPI 6 and SPI 12 calculation and Kriging1. SPI 6 and SPI 12 calculation and Kriging

2. Supply and Demand Data2. Supply and Demand Data

33. Impact Data. Impact Data

44. Infrastructure Data on the Level of deficiency. Infrastructure Data on the Level of deficiency

5. Index Calculation5. Index Calculation

6. Index Visualization6. Index Visualization

AUA Hellas

Components Components

ClassificationClassification

Less Vulnerable 0 Wet ≥ 1,50 0 No Deficits 0 No Deficits 0 None 0 Complete

Vulnerable 1 Quite Wet 0 to 1,49 1 15% Deficits 1 15% Deficits 1 15% Losses 1 15% Deficiency

Highly Vulnerable 2 Quite Dry 0 to -1,49 2 16-50% Deficits 2 16-50% Deficits 2 16-50% Losses 2 16-50% Deficiency

Extremely Vulnerable 3 Dry ≤ -1,50 3 >50% Serious Deficits 3 >50% Serious Deficits 3 >50% Losses 3 >50% Deficiency

Vulneraility LevelSCALES

SPI Supply Demand Impact Infrastructure

AUA Hellas

Index ClassificationIndex Classification

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

Index VisualizationIndex Visualization

AUA Hellas

AUA Hellas

Questions ?Questions ?

AUA Hellas

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention