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Drivers and barriers to sustainable
energy development in the MENA region Prof. Emanuela Colombo,
Rector’s Delegate to “Cooperation and Development” - Politecnico di Milano
UNESCO Chair in Energy for Sustainable Development
Department of Energy
Engineering Without Border
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair 2
Energy
Development
Rights & Equity
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
…to the Sustainable Development paradigm
a strategy for an inclusive “growth” in the post 2015 agenda
From the 8 Millennium Development Goals…
the mainstream of development for DCs in Y2000
The Global SD Challenge
Global Society has to face interconnected & complex challenges: • Interdependency, Internal inequity, financial, economic and structural crises • Not equitable distribution of natural resources and raw materials
3
Economic Environmental Social
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
…what about Energy?
“Energy is essential to socio-economic development and to improve the quality of life”
International Energy Agency, 2005
Since then, energy has jumped at the forefront of the global agenda: • achievement of the MDGs
• global security (raw materials, food, water….) • environmental protection
• sustainable development
The Global SD Challenge and Energy
Sustainable Energy will be a pillar within the post 2015 agenda
4
http://unsdsn.org/
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Energy and the economic dimension
Total Primary Energy Supply Gross National Income
Versus Electric energy Consumption
Energy & Sustainable Development
Quantitative interdependency between Energy & Development
IEA, WB, UNDP 2012
5
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
R² = 0,78
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0
Hu
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Energy Development Index
Energy and the social and environmental dimension Human development index
Energy Development index
Versus
IEA, WB, UNDP 2012
Energy & Sustainable Development
Malnutrition
Versus
Share of modern fuels
6
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Sustainable Energy should be a “right” for all
Some Philosophical achievements that should drive policies
• Energy does not determine human dignity.
• With zero/poor access, fundamental rights may not be guarantee
Energy comes to be an instrumental right
Energy, Right & Equity
7
http://www.google.it/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.waterlex.org/?post_events%3Dwater-energy-and-human-rights&ei=ygppVIzZDI3jO-zjgeAF&bvm=bv.79142246,d.ZWU&psig=AFQjCNHsDlD-9jzKYqzPxOcsL4PwkURoLQ&ust=1416256574645411
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair 8
Energy, Right & Equity
An issue of QUANTITY: access to energy
1.3 billions No access to electricity
1 billion, no access to reliable electric grid, regular provision of EE
2.6 billions rely on traditional biomass for domestic need
95% in LIE 80% in rural area
90% in informal suburbs 5-15% annual outages
4 millions deaths /y 15% efficiency
Low income
countries
Middle Income
Country
High Income
Country 50-75 millions in EU are affected by “fuel poverty”
An issue of QUALITY: affordability (energy may cost 10 times EU standard) … reliability…. safety
IEA, 2014
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair 9
Energy
In the MENA Region
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Energy Needs in the MENA Region
MENA Region Profile Human Devlopment Index - > African average - Similar to South Africa (BRICS)
GDP - Less then 2 African average, - ½ then of South Africa
Population Share between urban and rural is
around 50%
• S . Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy
in Africa: A comprehensive data and policies review, Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, September 2014, Pages 656-
686, ISSN 1364-0321,
• Focus on Africa, WEO2014
IEA, WEO2014
10
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Energy Needs in the MENA Region
MENA region Forecast
GDP annual growth rate (%) : 2012 - 2040
3.4 4.7
3.6
MENA Region 4 %
Global Level
Africa
Middle East
SSA 5.1
Population
0.9 2.2
1.4 2.4
2 % Focus on Africa, WEO2014
11
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Energy Needs in the MENA Region
TPES per capita - Double then other Africa region, - 1/3 of South Africa
Electricity per capita - >> then other Africa regions, - ¼ of South Africa
CO2 per capita - >> then other Africa regions, - Even of those with similar TPES pc = > Fossil fuel driven mix
Energy Economy
S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - “Sustainable energy in Africa…”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept. 2014
12
TPES (Mtoe)
Energy Indicators
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Energy Resources in the MENA Region
Key notes for the MENA region
- Dominated by Oil (50%) - roughly 40% Gas
- Biofuels /bioenergy 10% - Few % for Hydro and Coal
Primary Energy Mix
S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - “Sustainable energy in Africa…”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept. 2014
13
TPES share by fuel
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Energy Resources in the MENA Region
Electricity Mix
Key notes for the MENA region
- Dominated by Gas ( 60%) - roughly 20% Oil
- Hydro is roughly
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Power Sector
Energy Resources in the MENA Region
2 over 5 energy pools in the African Regional Economic Communities - Comité Maghrébin de l’Electricité (COMELEC) - Central African Power Pool (CAPP) - Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) - West Africa Power Pool (WAPP)
- Southern Africa Power Pool(SAPP)
Key notes for the MENA region
- Algerian holds 41% of IC in COMELEC
- Egypt holds 78% in EAPP
- Capacity is dominated by thermal plants
- Hydro is expected to growth (=>in EAPP, WAPP and SAPP) - kW/100 habitants is higher in COMELEC, SAPP (< 1/2 the EU std)
S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - “Sustainable energy in Africa…”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept. 2014
15
Networking
Energy Indicators
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Energy & C02 Intensity and Pollution
Energy Effectiveness in the MENA Region
Key notes for the MENA region
Energy intensity - Static situation - Lower values if compared to other African
regions
CO2 intensity - Among the Highest in Africa - < South Africa, > Soutern Africa
S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - “Sustainable energy in Africa…”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept. 2014
Electricity intensity (toe/1000 USD)
C02 intensity (tonnes/1000 USD)
16
Effectiveness
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair 17
Main Enegy Issues In the
MENA Region
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Quantity: the Energy Development Indicator
Main Issues in the Mena region
S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - “Sustainable energy in Africa…”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept. 2014
EDI tracks the progress towards the use of modern fuels (electricity, LPG, natural gas, kerosene,paraffin, ethanol and biofuels ) and modern energy services
Key notes for the MENA region
- EDI is higher then the rest of Africa
- Low “installed power per capita” affect EDI
- Higher cost (lower affordability)
- only 1 M people over 650 in Africa without access to EE & modern fuels
EDI
18
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Quality: the reliability of the power sector
Main Issues in the MENA region
Key notes for the MENA region
- Low level of reliability, exacerbated by weak regional network
- Loss of productivity for African enterprises due to frequent outages
- Unreliable electricity is a main constraint for African firms’ business
- (off grid) Captive generation own genset (increase firms’ costs)
- (on grid) Emergency power systems (short term leases, few % of GDP)
S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - “Sustainable energy in Africa…”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept. 2014
Outages affects business in a direct
way by reducing annual sales
19
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Security: the energy strategy
OIL GAS
Key notes for the MENA region
- Africa is the second net exporter of Oil after Middle East
- Oil proven reserves are huge: similar to Latin America, 1/5 Middle East, 11 OECD EU
- Major Oil producers are in the North and
Weste: Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Algeria
- Africa is the second net exporter of Gas after non-OECD EU and Eurasia
- Gas proven reserves are huge: 2 Latin America, 1/5 OECD America, 3 OECD EU
- Major Gas producers are in the North
and West: Algeria Nigeria, Egypt, Libya
- Gas flaring practice is huge (7% in Algeria)
S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - “Sustainable energy in Africa…”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept. 2014
20
Main Issues in the MENA region
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Key notes for the MENA region
- Few contribution from renewable energies
- Large size plants are limited - Hydro > 1 GW (Egypt - Aswan ) - Wind > 500 MW (Egypt and Morocco) - Large scale Solar (Algeria and Morocco)
- High potential for the whole continent
=> a total potential of more than 13.700 TWh/year has been estimated by IRENA
- High potential in the MENA Region
- Mainly for Wind and Solar
- When compared with electricity TFC
Security: the energy strategy RENEWABLES Installed Capacity (MW)
Electricity Generation Potential / by electricity TFC (%)
21
Main Issues in the MENA region
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair 22
The way foreward
for the MENA Region
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
Towards a better-functioning of the MENA energy sector
The way forward for the MENA region
23
How to exploit domestic resources for improving the
national energy systems to boost
socio economic development
Thus overcoming some of exogenous and endogenous barriers linked to institutional and political , economic and financial, technical and cultural barriers
1. MENA countries are endowed with energy resources, fossils and renewable
2. Energy system is weak in term of quantity, quality & security of the supply
3. the opportunities a more reliable energy system might offer to sustain the economic growth are often missed
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
• Power sector investment, • achieving universal electricity access in urban areas • reducing power outages • Increasing the penetration of renewable energies
• Deeper regional co-operation and integration, • facilitating new regional-scale generation and transmission projects • expanding cross-border trade can be a cost-effective way to increase reliability and
affordability but this is often hindered by technical and political barriers
• Improved management of resources and revenues, • adopting robust and transparent processes, revision of subsidies policies … • more effective use of oil and gas revenue, when available
• Broad improvements in governance
• Relevance of the domestic capacity to formulate /implement sound energy policies
The way forward for the MENA region
1 dollar of additional power sector investment can boost GDP by $15.
……taking the “African Century Case” as an example….
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Key Actions toward a MENA Energy System boosting regional economy
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair
1. NOT the unique answer when high reliability & energy density are required
2. Direct advantages • decentralized /modular systems (captive power); • In some areas they are cost effective • unlock national resources thus increase energy security & efficiency • may open new export/revenues (carbon credits) • increase regional integration
3. Indirect advantages • REs act as booster for the education sector
• capacity building is needed for the required work force @ different level • research/innovation capacities are needed within local academia & institutions
• Provided that capacity building and integrated management of resources is established is set up other benefits may be added: • employment opportunities may increase • policies and strategies can be better assessed….
The way forward for the MENA region
Which role for Renewable energies (REs)?
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More complex to manage
Storage, control..
Smart grid system
Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair 26
Sustainable Energy strategies Technologies Business models Enabling Policies
long term development
Multiplier Socio-Economic effects Local Needs
… human capital is ALWAYS an asset
Equity
Local Resources
Thank you for you kind attention!!! And Good Luck for your “energy” future