Upload
cyma
View
37
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
DRAFT Space Code of Conduct: Principles, Policies, Options. A Presentation by the Fletcher School’s Space Policy Working Group Dr. William Martel, Principal Investigator Elisa Perry, Tim Ridout , Anthony Sung, Basak Sefii , Ches Thurber, Peshala Wimalasena December 2, 2010. Outline. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
DRAFT Space Code of Conduct: Principles, Policies, Options
A Presentation by the Fletcher School’s Space Policy Working Group
Dr. William Martel, Principal Investigator
Elisa Perry, Tim Ridout, Anthony Sung, Basak Sefii, Ches Thurber, Peshala Wimalasena
December 2, 2010
2 /42
Outline• Problem statement
• Case study: Chinese ASAT
• Interference possibilities
• Responding to interference in space
• Code of conduct
• Applying code to case studies
• Directions for future research
/42
Problem Statement• Goal: peaceful and efficient use of space
• However, rapid increases in space activity heighten risks
• Lack of norms and consequences encourages actors to test boundaries of permissible conduct
• Critical importance of space to national security, economic systems
• Significant concepts of transparency and deterrence
3
4 /42
Transparency• Definition: open interactions among actors
in space to understand actions, intentions
• Transparency requires:− Space situational awareness− Clear rules of behavior− Communication among actors− Accountability for actions
5 /42
Deterrence• Definition: assure security through clear, credible
threat of retaliation
• Deterrence requires:− Clear rules of behavior
− Evident consequences, “red lines”
− Capability, will of actors to respond consistently
• To reduce risk of escalation:− Mutually agreed-upon rules, clearly understood
consequences
− Open channels of communication
6 /42
Previous Attempts at Space Code• Existing treaties, norms, proposed codes insufficient
• Stimson Center Code (2007)− Share information on space activities− Minimize debris− Refrain from interference− Implement domestic regulations
• EU Code (2010)− Register, report, and share information− Adopt Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines− Minimize accidents− Abide by ITU recommendations
• All express desire for peaceful use of space
• We need a code of conduct to guide behavior
7 /42
Our Solution• Code of Conduct
− Enhance transparency, predictability, security− Specify, codify permitted, prohibited behavior in
space− Provide communication mechanisms for
information sharing, dispute resolution − Clarify principles for legitimate responses to
interference− Credibly signal consequences to would-be rule-
breakers− Encourage consistent policy responses from
states
8 /42
Research Process (2009-2010)• Survey of space problem
− Demographics of space− Policy challenges
• Analysis of potential models of governance− Air and maritime analogies− Other proposed space codes− Existing regulatory and legal frameworks (ITU, OST)
• Study and brainstorm interference possibilities• Assess actors’ likely responses• Draft code of conduct• Suggest modes of implementation
9 /42
Outline• Problem statement
• Case study: Chinese ASAT
• Interference possibilities
• Responding to interference in space
• Code of conduct
• Applying code to case studies
• Directions for future research
10 /42
Case Study: 2007 Chinese ASAT• January 2007: China launches ground-
based SC-19 missile that destroys own FY-1 weather satellite in LEO
• Collision created considerable debris
• Diplomatic protests: Australia, Canada, EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, UK, US
• International response stronger than China anticipated
11 /42
Chinese ASATHighlights Central Problem
• No laws or norms prohibit China’s action
• Inability to predict international response
• No agreed framework on deterrence
• Absent clear rules, consequences, China conducts ASAT
• Results in escalation, damage to space environment
12 /42
Other Incidents of Concern• Radio frequency
− Cuba jams uplink of US broadcast signal to Iran (2003)
• Proximity operations− US, China test microsat proximity operations (2005, 2008)
• Laser dazzling− US claims Chinese lasers dazzle US satellites (2006)
• Hacking satellite systems− Hackers obtain control of British satellite (1999)
• Kinetic− Chinese ASAT (2007), US ASAT (2008)− Iridium/Cosmos accidental collision (2009)
13 /42
Outline• Problem statement
• Case study: Chinese ASAT
• Interference possibilities
• Responding to interference in space
• Code of conduct
• Applying code to case studies
• Directions for future research
14 /42
Types of Satellite Interference• Radio frequency
• Proximity operations
• Directed energy (laser dazzling)
• Cyber (hacking)
• Kinetic (damage, degrade, destroy)
15 /42
Satellite Interference Spreadsheet• Columns– Specific interference activity– Duration/intensity of attack– Level of damage caused– Level of proof needed to identify source/intent
• The interference methods (rows) are ordered by level of escalatory potential
16 /42
Outline• Problem statement
• Case study: Chinese ASAT
• Interference possibilities
• Responding to interference in space
• Code of conduct
• Applying code to case studies
• Directions for future research
17 /42
Potential Responses1) Absolutely nothing
2) Evasive, defensive action
3) Back-channel political communications
4) Public protest/shaming
5) Demand for compensation/ restitution
6) Official diplomatic responses
7) Economic sanctions
8) Selective retaliation,reversible consequences
9) Selective retaliation, irreversible consequences (satellites)
10) Selective retaliation, irreversible consequences (ground-based assets)
11) Outright war
18 /42
Criteria for Effective Responses• How should policymakers choose appropriate
responses from range of options?
• Criteria:1) Protect national security2) Minimize impact, end interference event3) Deter future attempts4) Comply with international laws and norms5) Minimize risk of further escalation
19 /42
Factors Affecting Level of Response
• Nature, degree, and intent of interference
• Quality of information: Interfering actor? Intent?
• Function of “victim” satellite
• Clarity of rules
• Previous attempts to resolve conflict peacefully
• International context
20 /42
Interference Response: Purposes • Clearly identify types of interference
• Categorize plausible responses
• Differentiate diplomatic to forceful responses
• Rationalize responses based on context
• Illustrate potential for escalation
21 /42
Satellite Interference ResponsesClassifying potential for escalation:
− Low potential− Medium potential− High potential
22 /42
Satellite Interference Responses Radio Frequency
23 /42
Satellite Interference Response Proximity
24 /42
Satellite Interference ResponsesDirected Energy
25 /42
Satellite Interference ResponsesCyber/Hacking
26 /42
Satellite Interference Responses Kinetic
27 /42
Outline• Problem statement
• Case study: Chinese ASAT
• Interference possibilities
• Responding to interference in space
• Code of conduct
• Applying code to case studies
• Directions for future research
28 /42
Code of ConductWhat It Should Do
• Enhance transparency, predictability, stability, and security
• Protect states’ capabilities
• Help distinguish between accidental and intentional actions
• Specifically prohibit or minimize certain provocative types of behavior in space
• Thus, provide written framework for avoidance, peaceful resolution of disputes
29 /42
Important Elements of the CodePositive Principles
• Promote peaceful and efficient use of space
• Protect equal access to space
• Satellites protected as sovereign property of state
30 /42
Important Elements of the CodeNegative Principles
• Prohibit dangerous, provocative acts in space:− Radio frequency jamming− Proximity operations− Cyber hacking− Directed energy attacks− Kinetic attacks− Unnecessary creation of debris
31 /42
Important Elements of the CodeDispute Resolution Mechanisms
• Joint efforts to improve space situational awareness
• Protocols for information sharing
• Protocols for communication in event of interference
• Forums for discussion of space disputes
• Possible mechanisms for arbitration, adjudication of disputes
32 /42
Important Elements of the CodePrinciples to Guide Responses
• Right to self-defense applies in space− Critical concept for state
• Limitations on self-defense also apply− Peaceful means should be exhausted first, when
possible− Responses must be proportional to level of
interference− Responses must be discriminate
• Actors may wish to declare more specific response policies− Unilaterally or through bilateral agreements
33 /42
Outline• Problem statement
• Case study: Chinese ASAT
• Interference possibilities
• Responding to interference in space
• Code of conduct
• Applying code to case studies
• Directions for future research
34 /42
2007 China ASAT Revisited• Code of conduct explicitly prohibits
such action– Rule against unnecessary debris creation– Potential rule prohibiting ASAT first-use
• Code narrows range of responses– Clear violation of established rule makes
lowest-level responses more likely
35 /42
Impact of Code on China ASAT• China likely expected “Green” response
• Code would make clear that “Yellow” response more likely
• By making consequences transparent, consistent, code enhances deterrence
• Uncertainty: With code in place, would China have been deterred from conducting ASAT?
36 /42
Microsatellite Case Study• Chinese microsatellite approaches US
imaging satellite
• Given unknown Chinese intentions, national security mission of US satellite creates dangerous situation
• Current legal regime provides no basis for determining who has right of way, how to respond
• Lack of clarity increases risk of escalation
37 /42
Microsatellite Case StudyPotential Application of Code
• Code clearly prohibits Chinese action− Satellite maintaining orbit has right-of-way− “Keep-out box” encircling US satellite establishes protected
“zone”
• Code clarifies possible responses− Clear violation makes lowest-level responses unlikely− Clear violation has implications for higher-level responses− Mechanisms for communication, dispute resolution make
higher-level responses less likely, unnecessary, provocative
38 /42
Microsatellite Case StudyImpact of Code
• Code establishes which satellite has right of way
• Imposes obligation on microsatellite to move away
• Communication and crisis resolution mechanisms increase likelihood of de-escalation− Cold War examples
• Clarity of rule, consequences may deter microsatellite approach to begin with
39 /42
Outline• Problem statement
• Case study: Chinese ASAT
• Interference possibilities
• Responding to interference in space
• Code of conduct
• Applying code to case studies
• Directions for future research
40 /42
Further Steps to Implementing the Code
• Unilateral policy declaration− National Space Policy
• Bilateral treaty− US-Soviet agreements
• Multilateral convention− Outer Space Treaty
• Customary international law− Maritime rights-of-way, rules of engagement
• Regulatory regime− ITU regulations for GEO− ICAO system for airspace
41 /42
Directions for Future Research• Study responses based on satellite type and
function
• Further development, analysis of code of conduct
• Create “model” bilateral, multilateral scenarios
• Study institutions to enforce code of conduct
• Analysis of forceful responses (Red Zone)
• Incorporate “traffic management” and other non-deliberate interference issues
Questions and Extended Discussion
42 of 41