Draft National Population Policy of Bhutan

Draft National

Population Policy

2018

Royal Government of Bhutan

List of abbreviations

BNUS Bhutan National Urbanization Strategy

BEO Bhutan Environment Outlook

BMIS Bhutan Multiple Indicator Survey

BLSS Bhutan Living Standard Survey

CDR Crude Death Rate

ECCD Early Childhood Care and Development

FR Fertility Rate

FYP Five Year Plan

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GNH Gross National Happiness

GNHC Gross National Happiness Commission

Gg Giga grams

GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst Flood

IMR Infant Mortality Rate

NSB National Statistics Bureau

NEC National Environment Commission

NECS National Environment Commission Secretariat

NCDs Non Communicable Diseases

NHS National Health Survey

NMR Neonatal Mortality Rate

NPPF National Pension and Provident Fund

MoH Ministry of Health

MMR Maternal Mortality Ratio

PAR Poverty Analysis Report

PM Particulate Matters

PHCB Population & Housing Census of Bhutan

RGoB Royal Government of Bhutan

RTA Road Traffic Accidents

SPM Suspended Particulate Matters

TFR Total Fertility Rate

TVET Technical and Vocational Education Training

U5MR Under-five Mortality Rate

WHO World Health Organization

Table of Contents

List of abbreviations........................................................................................................... 2

I. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 4

II. Vision ....................................................................................................................... 6

III. Overall Objectives: .................................................................................................. 6

IV. Policy Statements ..................................................................................................... 7

1. Population and Development ............................................................................................... 7

2. Ageing population ................................................................................................................ 8

3. Persons with Disabilities ...................................................................................................... 9

4. Demographic Change and Human Capital ........................................................................ 10

5. Demographic Change and Environment ............................................................................ 12

5.1 Land Use ..................................................................................................................... 13

5.2 Water, Air and Waste Pollution .................................................................................. 14

5.3 Climate Change .......................................................................................................... 15

5.4 Disaster Management ................................................................................................. 16

6 Migration and Urbanization ............................................................................................... 16

7 Demographic Change and Poverty .................................................................................... 18

8 Demographic Change and Gender ..................................................................................... 19

9 Demographic Change and the Economy ............................................................................ 20

10 Implementation Arrangement ........................................................................................ 21

I. Introduction

In view of the close inter linkages between population and development, the Royal Government

of Bhutan undertook various measures to address the impact of demographic change. In the past,

population related issues were confined largely to family planning and reproductive health

policies. In 1971 the 34th session of the National Assembly passed a resolution on family

planning following which family planning was integrated into the general health care system.

Bhutan signed the International Conference on Population and Development Plan of Action in

1994. This was followed by Royal Decree on population planning issued by His Majesty the

King in 1995. The Royal Decree states that:

“For the Royal Government of Bhutan, where the spiritual and temporal system exist in

harmony: To ensure continuing peace, prosperity and happiness for our people, to ensure

successful implementation of the Government’s policies and development plans, and to avoid

complications of the population explosions faced by other countries in the near future, it is very

important for every Bhutanese high and low, to understand and support the population planning

activities initiated by the health services.”

Bhutan 2020 – A Vision for Peace, Prosperity and Happiness, stipulates that a National

Population and Development Policy be developed. Some of the key strategies highlighted were

the inclusion of population education programmes, targeting young people and achieving

positive synergies in the areas of health (including reproductive health and family planning),

nutrition, employment, and basic education.

To further strengthen the positive synergies amongst the sectors and address emerging

population and development challenges, the need to develop a population policy was expressed

during the 5th GNHC meeting of the Gross National Happiness Commission (GNHC) in 2008. A

multi-sectoral task force1 formulated the Population Situation Analysis Report, Population

Perspective Plan and Action Plan. The 13th GNHC meeting in 29th August 2010 directed the

GNHC Secretariat to draft the National Population Policy. In pursuance to the directive, a

technical committee representing all relevant stakeholders was formed to develop the National

Population and Development Policy of Bhutan.

1 17 member task force from MoH, MoHCA, MoEA, MoWHS, MoE, MoAF, NECS, GNHCS, NPPF and

UNFPA

Rationale

The total resident population of Bhutan in 2017 was 727,145 of which 380,453 are males (52.3

percent) and 346,692(47.8 percent) are females, while the rural and urban composition was 62.2

per cent and 37.8 percent respectively. The 2017 PHCB saw an increase of about 100,571

persons (16 percent) compared to the 2005 PHCB. The Population grew at the rate of 1.3 percent

between 2005 and 2017. During the period 1980 and 2017 urban population increased from 5

percent of the total population to 30.9 percent in 2005 and to 37.8 percent in 2017.

Total fertility rate (TFR) declined from over six children per woman in 1984 to 3.5 children per

woman in 2005, 1.9 in 2017 and is estimated to reach 1.7 in 2032.

Bhutan has a young population with 45.8 percent of its population below 25 years of age. The

population projection2 indicates that the country’s population will reach 883,866 in 2047 with the

current fertility and mortality trends. It suggests a major shift in the country’s demographic

structure, which includes an ever-growing young population due to population momentum effect

despite having TFR below replacement level.

Changes in population dynamics affect various aspects of development, from economic, social,

and cultural, to politics, security, influencing consumption and the availability of natural

resources. The development agenda must promote sustainable development pathways to identify

the linkages of population dynamics.

Recognizing the inter-linkage of population and development, Bhutan needs to further strengthen the

integration of population concerns effectively with development programs within the framework of

the country’s development philosophy of gross national happiness. Population is linked to every

sector of development and is a major cross-cutting issue in all development plans. Appropriate

policy initiatives that respond to new realities (opportunities and challenges) must be adopted to

ensure “No one is left behind”.

In the past, population related issues were confined largely to family planning and reproductive

health policies. Till date proper comprehensive population related research and analysis has never

been conducted which has constrained policy-making and planning at all levels. The Vision 2020 set

population reduction growth rates as: 2.08 percent per annum by 2002, 1.63 percent by 2007 and

1.31 percent by 2012. It was also targeted to have a comprehensive population policy in place by the

end of the 8th FYP (1997-2002) as per Bhutan 2020: A Vision for Peace, Prosperity and Happiness.

The National Population Policy will provide clear directions for managing the changes in

demographic parameters and promoting sustainable development in keeping with the

development philosophy of Gross National Happiness.

2 National Population Projection, 2017-2047, National Statistical Bureau(NSB)

II. Vision

A strong and vibrant nation with healthy, productive, and happy citizens

III. Overall Objectives:

1. To achieve viable population for national security, identity, and socioeconomic

development

2. To guide and strengthen integration of population dynamics in the formulation and

implementation of development policies, plans and programmes.

IV. Policy Statements

1. Population and Development

Socio-economic development of a country should be generally influenced by the population size,

structure and distribution. The planners in every sector must take population into consideration

and address sectoral plans with reference to the relevant population issues. It is also very

important to ensure that the government pursues sustainable people-centred socio-economic

development in the country.

Further, the interplay of fertility, mortality, and migration are the three important factors

affecting size and structure of the population.

1.1 Demographic Trends (Fertility &Mortality)

The population growth rate has declined from 3.1 percent per annum in 1994 (NHS 1994) to 1.8

percent in 2005 (PHCB 2005), 1.3 percent in 2017 and estimated to drop to 0.27 in 2047. The

mortality rate, specifically the crude death rate (CDR)3 has declined from 13 deaths per 1000

population in 1984 (NHS 1984) to 7 in 2005 (PHCB 2005) and further dropped to 6.7 in 2017

(PHCB). Similarly, Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from around 6 children per woman in

1994 (NHS 1994) to 3.5 in 2005 and further dropped to 1.9 in 2017. TFR is further estimated to

drop to 1.7 in 2032. Life expectancy at birth increased from 47.5 years in 1984 to 70.2 in

2017(PHCB) and estimated to reach 76.8 years in 20474.

The decline in fertility and population growth rates might be due to the success of reproductive

health services, including family planning, which was intensified in the wake of high population

growth in the early 1990s. However, the reduction can also be attributed to overall socio-

economic development and increase in literacy rate because the objective of family planning

service in Bhutan was not to control population and it was always voluntary. The focus was on

maternal and child health to reduce mortality rate through appropriate birth spacing, preventing

unintended pregnancies and abortions.

The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)5 declined from 102.8 deaths per 1000 live births in 1984 (NHS

1984) to 40.1 in 2005(PHCB) and further to 15.1 in 2017(PHCB). The Under- Five Mortality

Rate (U5MR) has declined from 162.4 per 1000 live births in 1984 to 37.3 in 2012 (NHS, 2012)

and further to 34.1 in 2017(PHCB). The Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) has declined from 777

deaths per 100,000 live births in 1984 (NHS 1984) to 89 in 2017 (PHCB). The progress made in

reducing both infant and Under Five6 mortality is largely due to the reduction of deaths after the

neonatal period. Administrative data available suggests that neonatal mortality has not been

3No. of people dying in a given year divided by the number of people in the population mid-way through that year 4 Population Projection 2017-2047, NSB, 2019 5The number of deaths of infants under age 1 per 1000 live births in a given year.

6 Probabilityof a child born in a specific year dying before reaching the age of five, if subject to age-specific

mortality rates of that period.

reduced at the same pace and therefore it contributes to an increasing proportion of all child

deaths. The current estimated neonatal mortality rate (NMR)7 is 21 deaths per 1000 live births

(NHS 2012).

Bhutan is facing a double burden of diseases, that of existing, emerging and re-emerging

infectious diseases and an increasing trend of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Most of the

emerging diseases constitute public health emergencies and negatively impact the health of

populations and often overwhelm the response capacity. On the other hand, NCDs not only pose

a tremendous health burden but also have serious social and economic consequences. According

to WHO estimates in 2011, NCDs account for 55 percent of all deaths in Bhutan and the NCD

risk factor survey reported high prevalence of NCD risk among adult Bhutanese (STEP Survey

2014). There are also evidences of increasing burden of Road Traffic Accidents (RTA), injuries,

and occupational hazards in the country. With the ever increasing number of vehicles,

constructions of new roads, and the socioeconomic development the burden from RTA, injuries

and occupational hazards would keep on rising.

Policy Objective 1.1: To reverse the decline in Total Fertility Rate and ensure it does not

fall below the replacement level at all times.

Policy Statement 1.1.1: Institute appropriate interventions to manage changing fertility trends.

Policy Statement 1.1.2: Promote research on population dynamics including fertility trends and

related issues

Policy Objective 1.2: To increase life expectancy and ensure healthy lives.

Policy Statement 1.2.1: Reduce mortality rates.

Policy Statement 1.2.2: Ensure health and wellbeing of youth and adolescents through

reproductive health services

Policy Statement 1.2.3: Enhance prevention and control of existing, emerging and re-emerging

communicable diseases and NCDs including those related to mental

health.

2. Ageing population8

Ageing begins right from the mother’s womb. The nourishment and care that the mother and her

unborn baby receive determine how the newborn will fare in the world. Under-nutrition in the

7 Number of deaths during the first 28 completed days of life per 1,000 live births in a given year or period(World

Health Organisation). 8A process in which the proportions of adults and elderly increase in a population, while the proportions of children

and adolescents decrease. This process results in a rise in the median age of the population. Ageing occurs when

fertility rates decline while life expectancy remains constant or improves at the older age.

womb may lead to disease in adult life, such as circulatory disease, diabetes and disorders of fat

metabolism. Obese or overweight children and adolescents run the risk of developing chronic

diseases like diabetes, circulatory disease, cancer and musculoskeletal disorders in adult life and

old age. Thus, resulting in increased need for services and facilities to enable healthy and active

ageing.

Population ageing has implications on emergent social and financial aspects such as: a) financial

and social burden on younger generations; b) fiscal implications; c) labour force contraction and

decline in investment; d) public health burden; and e) burden on public infrastructure and

services. Further, there is no central agency to look after the social affairs as well as social

protection for the ageing population. There is no formal policy on healthy ageing and in response

to the increasing proportion of older persons, the Ministry of Health (MoH) has established a

geriatric care programme. The government has also created the National Pension and Provident

Fund (NPPF) to provide old-age retirement benefits.

The percentage of elderly people (65+ years) is projected to increase from 5.9 percent of the total

population in 2017 to 13.4 percent in 2047.

Policy Objective 2.1: To create an enabling environment for active and healthy ageing.

Policy Statement 2.1.1: Strengthen geriatric9 healthcare services.

Policy Statement 2.1.2: Establish/strengthen social security schemes.

Policy Statement 2.1.3: Enable participation of the elderly population in social and economic

activities and to live independently.

Policy Statement 2.1.4: Strengthen existing traditional familial relations and value systems.

3. Persons with Disabilities

The prevalence of persons with disabilities (PWDs) declined from 3.4 percent in 2005 to 2.1 percent

in 2017 as per the 2017 PHCB. Of the 2.1 percent (15,567) 8111(52.1%) were females and 7456(47.9

percent) percent were males. The prevalence rate was lower in the urban area (1.1 percent) compared

to the rural area (2.8 percent).The proportion of persons with disabilities living below the national

poverty line was 13.1 percent as per the BLSS 2017. The ratio of persons with disability who are

employed for every 100 members of the general population employed is 1.5.

The multi-disability prevalence rate in 2017 was 0.7 percent, which corresponds to 5,388 persons, of

which 2,585 persons were males and 2,803 were females. From the total persons with multi-

disability, 4,487 were in rural areas and 901 were in urban areas.

9The branch of medicine concerned with the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of disease in older people and the

problems specific to aging.

Some of the key issues that need to be addressed to overcome the difficulties faced by persons

with disabilities are the lack of user-friendly infrastructure, public transport services and attitudes

of people towards them. More focused plans and strategies are required to provide an enabling

and responsive environment for children with special needs.

Policy Objective 3.1: To ensure disability inclusive development.

Policy Statement 3.1.1: Create a conducive environment for persons with disabilities to avail

economic and social services.

Policy Statement 3.1.2: Provide social care and services for persons with disabilities.

Policy Statement 3.1.3: Ensure that persons with disabilities have equal access to quality

education and training that is more appropriate, enabling and

responsive.

Policy Statement 3.1.4: Ensure public infrastructures are accessible and disable friendly.

4. Demographic Change and Human Capital

As the population continues to grow, development of human capital will be essential for

sustainable socio-economic development of the country. Like any other capital for economic

production, human capital is the added value and is often measured as education, training and

experience. There are many ways in which education and the resulting human capital affect

human well-being at the individual and society levels. A huge body of literature shows that better

educated people tend to have better health, higher income and higher life satisfaction (Lutz

2009). Therefore, human capital development should be the cornerstone of long-term

development strategies.

4.1 Education, training, and lifelong learning

The Constitution of the Kingdom of Bhutan mandates the State to provide education to improve

and increase knowledge, values and skills of the entire population for full development of the

human personality. It also mandates the provision of free education to all children of school

going age up to tenth standard and ensures that technical and professional education is made

generally available and that higher education is equally accessible to all based on merit.

Bhutan has made commendable progress in this endeavour including creating access to education

services with the adjusted net primary enrollment ratio reaching 98.8 percent with 98.9 percent

for girls and 98.7 percent for boys in 2017.

Despite the progress made challenges remain in reaching the last mile and in provision of

equitable quality inclusive education. Education has been playing a crucial role in overall

personal development and in enhancing their emotional wellbeing by inculcating values such as

care, kindness, compassion, love, gratitude, inclusiveness, tolerance, honesty, respect for others.

Therefore, the ongoing programmes in schools and educational institutions need to be further

strengthened to upscale skills development and value education.

Youth employment is a major concern with half the country’s population under the age of 26.9

years with youth unemployment at 13.2 percent in 2016. It is imperative to provide employable

skills including life skills to this group of population through expansion, diversification and

improvement of vocational and technical education programs. Currently there are various

concerns related to changing lifestyles, gap between school education and market demands, the

skills development including inadequate intake capacities in the Technical, Vocational Education

and Training and relevance of programs to labor market needs.

The overall literacy rate of the country was estimated at 71.4 percent with 63.9 percent female

literate and 78.1 percent males literate(2017 PHCB). Acknowledging that learning is ‘lifelong’ and

“lifewide10,” which goes beyond education and training, the continuing and non-formal

education programme are provided for adults and youths who have missed formal schooling.

Similarly, traditional learning institutions also offer an alternative approach to education and

lifelong learning. In order to strengthen and support skills development and progression of

learning, the Non Formal Education Equivalency Framework has also been developed in

collaboration with Ministry of Labour and Human Resource.

Policy Objective 4.1: To ensure improved access to quality education and training.

Policy Statement 4.1.1: Institutionalize and strengthen Early Childhood Care and Development

(ECCD) for children from 0-8 years of age through government,

private and other initiatives.

Policy Statement 4.1.2: Ensure all children of school going age have equal access to free

quality and inclusive basic education.

Policy Statement 4.1.3: Integrate population and development issues in the monastic education

system.

10 Life-wide Learning is a strategy that aims to move student learning beyond the classroom into other learning

contexts. It requires teachers making good use of resources and settings available at their schools and in the

communities, in order to create suitable learning contexts (combinations of time, place and people) for particular

educational purposes. Such experiential learning enables students to achieve certain learning goals that are more

difficult to attain through classroom learning alone.

Policy Statement 4.1.4: Strengthen flexible pathways in education and training among general

education, Technical and Vocational Education Training (TVET) and

higher education, including traditional learning institutions.

Policy Statement 4.1.5: Promote school to work transition for employability.

Policy Statement 4.1.6: Provide continuing and life-long learning opportunities including skills

development for youth and adults for their meaningful participation in

the society.

Policy statement 4.1.7: Ensure vocational, professional, and higher education programs are

aligned to labour market needs.

Policy statement 4.1.8: Improve access, quality, and relevance of TVET and higher education

programmes.

Policy statement 4.1.9: Inculcate children with the right values and attitudes based on the

country’s unique values and culture.

5. Demographic Change and Environment

Environment conservation is one of the four themes for achieving the national development goal

of Gross National Happiness (GNH). It has thus received consistent priority in the country’s

development process. Of the total land area, 71 percent is covered with forests and 51.44 percent

is designated as protected areas and biological corridors (RNR, MoAF).

As per the Bhutan Environment Outlook (BEO) 2016 most environmental problems are localized

and generally associated with growing population density, urbanization and industrialization.

The increased number of people can pose a serious threat to the environment. Going by the

current trends of rural urban migration and urbanization, population distribution will continue to

be skewed towards urban areas. This will increase pressure on the natural environment. Impact

of climate change will further exacerbate environmental stresses and associated natural resources

such as water, land, etc. The adverse impacts of Climate change will also have bearing on the

population in terms of who is impacted, where and how thereby making it critical to adapt to

climate change.

It is the effect of changing population composition and life style patterns, including patterns of

consumption and the carbon footprint left by these changing lifestyles that requires attention,

along with the effect of environmental change on population.

5.1 Land Use

Growth of population has significant impacts on the land resources. Agriculture is the primary

occupation for the majority of people in Bhutan (57.2 percent). Bhutan has a total arable land of

less than eight percent, of which only about 2.93 percent is cultivated. The limited prime

agricultural land (especially paddy fields) is under increasing pressure from urbanization and

growth of peripheral towns. There is a net reduction of 13,437 acres of agricultural land due to

developmental activities. The conversion of arable land and forests into other land uses is

increasing at an alarming rate. The pressure is mostly from accelerated construction of farm

roads, electricity transmission/distribution lines, industries and urbanization. Further, agricultural

lands in rural areas are increasingly being left fallow due to labour shortages, wildlife, irrigation

facilities and rural urban migration. Such developments have a huge implication on the food and

nutrition security.

According to the agriculture survey 2013 the average rural land holding (own land cultivated +

land leased out + land left fallow) is about 3.4 acres per rural household. The small land holding

is expected to fragment further as a result of the growing population. This is one of the biggest

challenges in meeting the food sufficiency targets (97.6 percent). The steep slopes around the

country also compound the challenges associated with agricultural lands.

Important major impacts of current land use pattern in Bhutan are as follows:

Challenges in implementation of urban area plans and development of infrastructure

Loss of biodiversity, loss and fragmentation of habitat

Loss of food production and decreasing food security

Decreased ground water recharge and drying of water sources

Deterioration of water quality due to sedimentation from fragile soil areas

Decrease in forest resources and life sustaining components ecosystem services

Conversion of arable land for urbanization and industrialization

Extinction of endangered flora and fauna

Farmlands becoming fallow more

Policy Objective: Ensure that environmental concerns are mainstreamed into development

policies, plans and programmes and enhance green growth.

Policy Statement 5.1.1: Ensure holistic land use planning and sustainable landuse at all level

Policy Statement 5.1.2: Ensure protection and optimal utilization of agricultural land

Policy Statement 5.1.3: Ensure that the ecosystem is not fragmented.

5.2 Water, Air and Waste Pollution

A rapid assessment of rural drinking water quality in 2012 indicate that 17% of the stream water

sources and 28% of the spring water sources are safe for consumption (RCDC, 2012). Domestic

sewage is the main source of water pollution. Improper disposal of waste oil and other vehicle

effluents from workshops located close to rivers are also a serious environmental concern,

especially in places like Thimphu and Phuentsholing. Use of pesticides and herbicides in Bhutan

are a potential source of water pollution, the import of plant protection chemical which includes

herbicides, pesticides and disinfectants increased from 436.78 MT in 2013 to 564.44 MT in

2017. In 2017 the total quantity of fertilizers distributed was 2,883.3 MT (Urea 1273.7 MT, SSP

207.3 MT, Suphala 1385.7 MT, MoP 14.6 MT, Bone Meal 1.10 MT).

Rapid urbanization as a result of economic and social development has serious impacts both on

water demand in terms of quantity required and the associated pollution that impairs water

quality. Water demand by agriculture is also expected to increase due to the increase in

population and food demand.

Bhutan presently has a very pristine air with negligible levels of pollution. However, rapid

socio-economic development and urbanization is an emerging threat to the existing air quality.

Bhutan State of the Environment, 2016, estimates the total national GHG emissions increased by

45 percent from 1,549.64 Gigagrams of Carbon dioxide Equivalent (GgCO2e) in 2000 to

2,253.333 GgCO2e in 2010. Localized air pollution is already being experienced due to

increasing number of vehicles, manufacturing industries and increasing number of construction

activities, etc. as a result of urbanization and industrialization triggered by socio-economic

growth. Growing concern here is that there is an increasing trend in emissions. It is thus very

timely for policy interventions to prevent adverse impacts of uncontrolled air pollutions. The

NEC adopted the revised national air quality standards in 2007 and it prescribes different

maximum permissible limits based on the sensitivity of the local receiving environment over

different time periods.

Emissions from motor vehicles are one of the sources of local air pollution in Bhutan. According

to the second National Greenhouse Gas inventory, emissions from the transport sector have

increased from 117.90 Giga grams (Gg) in year 2000 to 230.36 Gg of carbon dioxide in 2009.

Windblown dust particles from the construction sites within the country are an emerging source

of Suspended Particulate Matter pollution. Besides the windblown dust from the construction

sites, vegetation loss around the urban centers to construction also contributes to increased

pollution.

Forest fires are another major factor contributing to local air pollution. In the last 15 years 1997-

2011, on an average of 62 forest fire incidences were recorded annually damaging about

18,188.23 acres of forest land annually (Forestry Facts, Figures & Trends 2011). Burning of

agricultural debris also contributes to air pollution.

Waste is emerging concerns in both urban and rural areas. According to NEC, only about 12

towns out of the 54 urban settlements had some form of solid waste management in place. The

operation of the waste management system is crude at best, and lacks an integrated management

system.

Policy Objective 5.2: To promote sustainable consumption and production practices, and

avoid or mitigate adverse impacts on water, air and land resulting

from increasing development needs.

Policy Statement 5.2.1: Ensure measures to prevent or mitigate air and water pollution are

mainstreamed into development policies, plans and programmes

Policy Statement 5.2.2: Adopt and Implement Integrated Waste Management Practices

5.3 Climate Change

Bhutan is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. In addition to being a land

locked and least developed country with a fragile mountainous environment, high dependence of

the population on agriculture and the significant role of hydropower for economic development

increase the vulnerability. Bhutan also faces increasing threats from climate hazards and extreme

events such as flash floods, glacial lake outburst floods, windstorms, forest fires and landslides.

There are also increasing incidence of pest and diseases and drying up of water sources.

Climate change poses a threat to sustainable development and to the pursuit of gross national

happiness. To remain carbon neutral, growing emissions from economic development will need

to be mitigated by pursuing low emission development pathways across all the sectors.

Therefore, measures to build resilience and reduce vulnerability are necessary to adapt to the

adverse impacts of climate change and minimize future climate risks.

Policy Objective 5.3: To provide strategic guidance to ensure that Bhutan remains carbon

neutral and protect the wellbeing of the people of Bhutan from

adverse impacts of climate change by adopting climate change

resilient strategies and measures

Policy Statement 5.3.1: Ensure balanced sustainable development while promoting justifiable

economic and social development by pursuing a low GHG emissions

development pathway.

Policy Statement 5.3.2: Building Climate Resilient Society

5.4 Disaster Management

Bhutan is prone to various natural hazards such as Glacial Lake Outburst floods, flashfloods,

fire, earthquakes, landslides and windstorm. There are several underlying vulnerabilities that

intervene in the translation of this physical exposure to hazards into disaster risks. Over the years

the interplay of social, economic and culture factor is increasing the impacts of hazards. The

factors that exacerbate disaster risk reduction in the country include rapid urbanization, unsafe

construction practices, lack of enforcement; lack of awareness & preparedness planning and

absence of culture of insurance.

It is widely accepted that disasters resulting from natural hazards such as earthquakes, cyclone,

floods, droughts, forest fires, landslides and so forth impact development in many ways.

Disasters not only cause loss of lives and livelihood but also result in huge financial losses;

consequently causing significant impact on development. Loss of lives in disasters result in

reduction in human capital and impact livelihood especially among the poor section of the

society who are more exposed to disasters. Moreover, disasters damage lifeline and critical

facilities such as road, bridges, schools, health, and communication. In addition, recovery and

reconstruction activities in the aftermath of a disaster require huge funding, often resulting in

diversion of government funds that were originally allocated for service provision activities.

Recent studies also suggest that apart from national governments donors also tend to divert their

funding support from development activities to the disaster response and rehabilitation activities.

Policy Objective 5.4: To Strengthen Disaster Risk Management and resilience to Climate

Change.

Policy Statement 5.4.1: Strengthen disaster resilience and institutionalization of a sustainable

and decentralized disaster management mechanism at all levels.

Policy Statement 5.4.2: Mainstream disaster risk reduction in all policies and plans to promote

risk reduction and resilience

6 Migration11 and Urbanization12

Based on the 2017 PHCB rural to urban migration (142,329) accounted for the highest population

move followed by rural to rural migration (130,886). This was similar to 2005, where rural to urban

migration (111,770) also accounted for the highest population move followed by rural to rural

migration (111,548) within the country.

11The movement of people across a specific boundary for the purpose of establishing a new or semi-permanent

residence. 12 Growth in the proportion of a population living in urban areas.

Rural-urban migration is likely to continue and is expected to put severe strains on the existing

urban services and pose serious developmental and environmental problems such as increasing noise

and air pollution, shortage of safe drinking water and electricity, inadequate sewerage facilities,

shortage of housing leading to proliferation of urban slums and squatter settlements, unemployment

and other social issues. This would also result in the continued loss of the active segment of the

rural society and creation of demand for urban housing, public transport and meeting the needs

of persons with disabilities.

The urban population has increased from 196,111 persons (30.9 percent) in 2005 to 274,967 persons

(37.8 percent) in 2017 and estimated to reach 56.8 percent in 2047. The growth in urban population

is largely due to migration from rural to urban areas. The Thromde population accounts for 22.2

percent of the total population in 2017.

The internal migration to urban areas has resulted in underutilization of social amenities in the

rural areas and overstressed in the urban infrastructure. The extension of the municipal boundary

is universal and the inclusion of rural population in the urban setting enhances the urban

population that is neither natural growth nor migration. Such expansion leads to changes in the

land use patterns. There are other settlements that have urban facilities and the potential for

urban development.

For the purpose of planning physical infrastructure the existing and additional population data

collected every decade and annual data will be necessary. It is imperative to establish a

coordination mechanism amongst data providers and rural and urban planners.

Policy Objective 6.1: To effectively manage migration and urbanization.

Policy Statement 6.1.1: Ensure balanced regional development that is environment friendly and

sustainable.

Policy Statement 6.1.2: Enhance rural development, agricultural production and access to

market.

Policy Statement 6.1.3: Ensure planned development of human settlements in both rural and

urban areas.

Policy Statement 6.1.4: Strengthen rural-urban linkages in recognition of their economic, social

and environmental interdependence.

Policy Statement 6.1.5: Ensure sustainability and quality of infrastructure and services.

Policy Statement 6.1.6: Ensure access to affordable home ownership.

Policy Statement 6.1.7: Ensure efficient and eco-friendly transportation system.

Policy Statement 6.1.8: Ensure the population changes including those resulting from migration

and urbanization are taken into consideration while planning for public

services and infrastructures.

7 Demographic Change and Poverty

Poverty is a consequence of economic and demographic conditions in the country. The degree of

poverty a society might experience depends on the volume and distribution of resources and on

the size and distribution of the population among households. The size and age structure of a

population are consequences of fertility decisions taken over past decades which were influenced

by the prevailing economic conditions. Demographic factors have both direct and indirect

impacts on the distribution of income. As the size and age composition of the population change,

the relative size of the labor force and the number of dependents also change, modifying the

dependency ratio of families, and therefore their level of poverty.

According to the Poverty Analysis Report 2017 income poverty incidence has declined from 12

percent in 2012 to 8.2 percent in 2017, According to the report, rural poverty was reduced from

16.7 percent in 2012 to 11.9 percent in 2017; and urban poverty reduced from 1.8 percent in

2012 to 0.8 percent in 2017. The report however, showed that the Gini-coefficient at national

level increased from 0.36 in 2012 to 0.38 in 2017.

The Bhutan Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index 2017 shows that 5.8 percent are under poverty

compared to 12.7 percent in 2012. Under this approach 8.1 percent of the rural population

estimated to be multi-dimensionally poor compared to only 1.2 percent of urban population in

2017.

As poverty in Bhutan is a rural phenomenon people depend on farming and livestock rearing as

food security, however, the wildlife has increasingly become burden/challenging task as the

cultivated crops as well as cattle are damaged/killed by wild animals i.e. the significant challenge

is to balance the needs of rural farmers, who not only live in close proximity to wildlife but also

share resources with wildlife.

Policy Objective 7.1: To eradicate poverty and reduce inequality

Policy Statement 7.1.1: Address the basic needs of the poor through the multi-dimensional

approach.

Policy Statement 7.1.2: Reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience of the poor to natural

calamities and human wildlife conflicts.

Policy Statement 7.1.3: Ensure equitable access to public goods and services.

8 Demographic Change and Gender

Gender disparities and the extent of gender equality in the country directly influence the timing

and shape of demographic change. As differences between males and females lessen and women

are able to control their reproductive lives, maternal and child health improves, and fertility and

mortality tend to decline. Consequently, population growth slows as women have more access to

knowledge on reproductive health and effective ways of controlling the timing and number of

childbirths. This translates into enabling women to broaden their horizons and participate in the

public sphere. As such, gender equality programmes are vital in shaping the demographic profile.

Currently, the female adult literacy rate of 57.1 percent stands much lower than the male adult

literacy rate of 75 percent (PHCB 2017). There is gender parity till the secondary level in terms

of enrolment in schools but at the tertiary level, Gender Parity Index (GPI) is 0.82 meaning there are

only 82 girls as against 100 boys in the tertiary level education

There is very low female participation in governance and decision-making roles with women

making up only 15.27 percent of the parliament. Similarly, the female labour force participation

is low at 52.2 percent compared to that of men at 73.1 percent. The female unemployment rate

(2.9 percent) is higher than the male unemployment rate (2.1 percent) and youth unemployment

rate higher with 12.9 percent compared to 9.2 percent for male (LFS, 2016).

As per the National Health Survey 2012, 74 percent of the women aged 15-49 years reported

acceptance of violence. As per the study by NCWC, One third (32.9 percent) of the ever

partnered women had experienced Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) in their lifetime. The

prevalence rate in rural areas (40.4 percent) was found to be close to double that of the

prevalence rate in urban areas (25.2 percent) in 2012. As per the report on Violence Against

Children study, 2016, 64 percent of children between the ages of 13 to 17 experienced some form of

Physical Violence at least once in their lifetime. As per the Royal Bhutan Police statistics, reported

cases related to violence against women, violence against children and children in conflict with the

law has almost doubled from 435 in 2016 to 800 in 2017.

Policy Objective 8.1: To achieve gender equality and enhance empowerment of women and

girls.

Policy Statement 8.1.1: Integrate gender issues into all development policies, plans and

programmes.

Policy Statement 8.1.2: Ensure an enabling environment for women and girls’ participation in

all spheres including adoption of temporary special measures, as

appropriate.

Policy Statement 8.1.3: Strengthen institutional and organizational coordination in addressing

gender issues.

Policy Statement 8.1.4: Ensure effective mechanism to prevent and reduce gender based

violence and violence against children.

9 Demographic Change and the Economy

During recent years there has been an increasing awareness of the direct influence of population

age structure on the economy. People’s economic behavior and needs vary at different stages of

life and as such, changes in a country’s age structure can have significant effects on its economic

performance. While young people require investment in health and education, prime-age adults

supply labour and savings, and the elderly require health care and retirement income.

With half the country’s population under the age of 26.9 years this large number of young people

has the potential to be a tremendous asset for the country provided the right conditions are

created. While the current unemployment rate is at 2.4 percent (PHCB 2017) down from 2.9

percent in 2013 and the youth unemployment rate is 12.713 percent. The unemployed youth

mostly comprise of those with university degrees and living in the urban areas (16.7 percent).

Currently, a large proportion of the population is of working age and people aged 65 or older are

gradually increasing. Although the decline in fertility has been observed, Bhutan would still have

the great majority of her population in the age group of 15-64 creating a demographic bulge.

This demographic bulge would create an especially large generation of individuals who will

supply greater amounts of labor and savings, and be healthier and better educated. This translates

to more human and physical capital, which would push out the frontier of production

possibilities of the economies in which they take place. Therefore, if Bhutan could adopt right

policies and take advantage of this demographic dividend, the country can attain considerable

improvements in the living standards of the people. As per the population projection (2017-2047)

report, the working age population is expected to remain at its peak to 69.5 percent in 2047 from

68 percent in 2017.

The economy continues to evolve into a modern economy with a decline in primary sector

growth as against the tertiary and secondary sectors, largely attributed to growth in the electricity

and construction sectors. Growth in the manufacturing and industrial base is relatively slow.

Unemployment and out-migration from rural areas increase challenges posed due to inadequate

labour.

The effect of demographic change on economic growth largely depends on policy measures that

are put in place to understand relationship between population change and economic

development. The current demographic transition offers significant and timely opportunities for

our country to mainstream population features and make its effect more pronounced.

13 Considering only Bhutanese population (excluding Non-Bhutanese), the country’s youth unemployment rate is 12.7%. For males and

females, the rate is 12.5% and 13.0% respectively.

Policy Objective 9.1: To ensure population dynamics contributes to socio-economic

development.

Policy Statement 9.1.1: Develop and implement measures to reap the benefits of the

demographic dividend

Policy Statement 9.1.2: Provide an enabling environment for private sector growth and

development.

Policy Statement 9.1.3: Explore economic opportunities and promote entrepreneurship

Policy Statement 9.1.4: Promote private sector employment through conducive working

condition and safe and healthy working environment.

Policy Statement 9.1.5: Enhance productivity of workforce through innovation and new

technologies

10 Implementation Arrangement

To have updated information on population is one of the most crucial elements in the whole

planning process of a country. It cuts across all sectors. However, challenges still remains with

strengthen national statistical systems at all levels to produce reliable, disaggregated and

internationally comparable statistics on population, social and economic development in a timely

manner. It is critically important to understand the demographic dynamics of development since

population and development are highly correlated. Recognizing the inter-linkage of population

and development, the country needs to continue with the integration of population policies

effectively with development programmes within the framework of the Gross National

Happiness.

Therefore, the National Population Policy is the very important first step which must be

translated into strategies and action plans. These strategies and action plans must be implemented

on the ground to be meaningful. As such, it is imperative to establish an institutional framework

to ensure that it is systematically implemented, using international, regional and national good

practices. It will also look into efficient and effective coordination mechanism involving civil

society, private sector, media and other stakeholders.

An institution on Population and Development should be established. This institution will be

responsible for formulating, reviewing, and updating population-related policies, proposals and

research. The institution will develop an efficient mechanism of coordination amongst the

various sectors concerning population data collection, updating, implementation, monitoring and

evaluation. The institution will also undertake a pivotal role for various sectors and agencies to

ensure efficient execution of the strategies and action plans towards achieving the goals and

strategies of the population perspective plan.

Policy Statement 10.1.1 Establish an institutional arrangement based on the requirement of this

policy

The functions of the institution on population and development in addition to the one above are

as follows:

The core functions of the institution are as follow:

1. Ensure implementation of the National Population Policy.

2. Review the National Population Policy every five years and revise if required.

3. Adopt strategies, action plans, and a monitoring and evaluation framework for achieving

specific population and development objectives.

4. Advise the government and provide guidance to other agencies on population and

development related issues.

5. Coordinate and monitor population related programmes of other organizations both

public and private within the country.

6. Ensure participation of the private sector and civil society organization in the

formulation, review and implementation of population related programmes.

7. Ensure collection, analysis and dissemination of information on population and

development.

8. Conduct or commission research on population and development related issues.

9. Advocate and create awareness on population and development related issues.

Fig. 1 : Graphical representation of the implementation framework

Line Agencies (Develop and implement

population related plans and

programmes)

Dzo.Adm. (Coordinate & implement at LG

level)

Dzongkhag

MSTF

Gewog Adm. (Coordinate & liaise with DPU, DSO &

implement activities at Gewog Level)

Cabinet (Approval)

Population and Development … (to be

established) ((Formulate, review, update, coordinate, monitor &

evaluate)

NSB (Census, survey, data collection &

dissemination)

Research Institutes (Research & impact assessment)

Pvt. Sector/ NGOs/CSOs (advocacy, awareness &

implementation)

National Multi

SectoralTask

Force (MSTF)

DSO (Coordinate with NSB & DPU,

data collection)

DT/ TT (Policy review related to LG level)

MoHCA and MoH (Vital Registration System)