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Nay Pyi Taw, MyanmarNovember 22, 2013

Development of Myanmar

National Electrification Plan Toward Universal Access

---- An Overview

Dr. Xiaoping WangSenior Energy Specialist,

World Bank

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Key Messages from May 2013 Workshop on Achieving Universal Access to Electricity in Myanmar

Access to modern energy service has direct bearing on poverty reduction and rural development. Globally, 70% of the poor and 85% of those without access to electricity live in rural areas.

Universal Access to Electricity by 2030 is achievable and affordable – as proven in other countries, the goal can be achieved with sustained government’s commitment, targeted sector policies, and significant financial support from donors

The National Electrification Plan (NEP) should chart out a path towards universal access designed specifically for Myanmar, embrace both grid and off-grid solutions, and include appropriate policy and technical innovation to lower cost, improve reliability, and provide timely service to all households

The World Bank Group will support NEP Development. Both financial support for investments, and technical assistance for institutional development will be available to Myanmar for the implementation of NEP

1976 1986 1996 20060%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2.5%

61%

98%

87%

1986

1993

1997

2004

2011

10%14%

Electrification Rate Increased Rapidly in Vietnam Between 1993-2011

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Laos also Made Rapid Progress in Electrification Since 1995

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

15%

1995

2013Access to Electricity

84%

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Asian Countries Saw Rapid Increase in Electrification Rate at Relatively Low GDP Level

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Government of Myanmar is Strongly Committed to Achieving Universal Access to Electricity

• Goal to achieve > 50% coverage in 2016 - The Government is developing an implementation plan to increase electricity coverage in 2016.

• Renewable Energy for Rural Electrification - A Rural Electrification and Potable Water Resource Committee was established through the recent Presidential Decree where one of the mandates is to promote renewable energy for rural electrification.

• Integrated Rural Development and Rural Electrification - With the new mandate of Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural Development on rural electrification, rural development and rural electrification are fully integrated.

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Government Commitment to Universal Access Aligns with UN Sustainable Energy for ALL (SE4ALL) Objectives

• Myanmar and SE4LL - Myanmar endorsed the UN SE4ALL Initiative, a goal to ensure universal access to modern energy services by 2030, co-led by the UN Secretary General and the President of the World Bank.

• Myanmar an high impact country - Myanmar is identified as one of the high impact countries that offer the most potential to make rapid progress by SE4ALL.

• Myanmar is one of the first countries, and currently the only country in the East Asia and Pacific Region, to receive significant grant support (approximately $2 million) from the World Bank/ESMAP SE4ALL Technical Assistance Program.

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Myanmar National Electrification Plan (NEP) 2015-2030

• NEP is envisaged to be a comprehensive action plan for developing, financing, and implementing electricity access scale-up program nationwide, with the target of achieving universal access by 2030.

• NEP aims to align support from different stakeholders with the implementation program for achieving national access targets and syndicates financing on a timely, ongoing and programmatic basis.

Key Elements:

1. Geospatial Least Cost Electrification Rollout plan (grid and off-grid)

2. Road Map and Investment Prospectus

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Geospatial Least Cost Electrification Rollout Plan

A high level geospatial rollout plan comprising:

• A systematic grid network rollout connection plan

• A complementary spatial plan for off-grid investments

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Scope of Work

• Electricity demand and connection projection at a disaggregated level (district or lower)

• Comparison of different technologies and electricity supply options, and estimate total costs of electrification at each sub-location

• Create GIS-based spatial least-cost electrification planning platform with geo-referenced data layers that cover both grid extension, and off-grid applications by sub-location

• Data gathering and analysis to support the spatial planning platform

• Examine the sensitivity of select outputs of the least cost plan to key policy variables such as connection charge, changes in grid supply cost per unit of electricity, deployment of proven low cost network designs, and equipment enables to reduce investment requirements

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Grid Roll-out

Grid roll-out plan shows demand growth, grid expansion, and consolidation of

municipal grids to form a single, larger regional or national grid

Roll-out: By Branch (MV)Connect most cost-effective

branches first

Phase 1 < 20

Phase 2 20 – 25

Phase 3 > 25

Unit Investment

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Road Map and Investment Prospectus

A road map to achieving universal access to electricity by 2030, including:

• Long-term and intermediate targets for 2015-2030• investment financing framework for 2015-2020 (short-term)• action plan to address enabling policy and institutional

framework• capacity strengthening initiatives for key institutions and

agencies

Road Map and Investment Prospectus

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Scope of Work

• Establish institutional framework for NEP implementation - Establish key roles for gov agencies, private sector, implementation agencies

(YESB, MESB, ESE, private sector, etc), and DPs- Oversight, policy, regulatory, and legal framework - Near term action plan for capacity strengthening

• Gap analysis and financing plan for prospectus (2015-2020) - Analyze sector-wide financing gap for the first time slice (2015-2020) of NEP- Recommend policy platform and framework for syndicating annual financing

requirements from different stakeholders

• Draft final road map and investment financing prospectus - Roadmap, geospatial rollout plan summary, implementation plan, financing

gap and policy platform- Investment financing prospectus 2015-2020- Plan for updating and approval of Geospatial Plan and Prospectus.

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Work Plan

Two consulting firms have been competitively selected to assist in NEP development, and bring in technical expertise and international experience.

• Columbia University— Geospatial least cost electrification rollout plan— With experience in Indonesia, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania,

• Castalia – Roadmap and Investment Prospectus– with experience in Indonesia, Rwanda, Kenya, Vanuatu

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Work Plan

• MOEP and MOLFRD jointly lead the NEP preparation with participation from other NEMC member agencies and assistance from the World Bank and ADB.

• MOEP and MOLFRD co-manage the consulting firms together with World Bank. This includes strategic guidance to data collection, review of key deliverables, organization of workshops and study tours.

• Consultants work closely with the government teams throughout the NEP preparation process

• Close coordination with ADB, JICA and other donors on respective, related initiatives.

• Details on work plan and study methodology of each element will follow in the next sessions.

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Proposed Key Milestones and Deliverables

Milestone Date Deliverable

1st Consultation Workshop May 2013 Reached consensus on NEP development

2nd Consultation Workshop November 2013 Inception report, including methodology and work plan

South-south Exchange January 2014 Visit of select gov officials to select countries in SEA

3rd Consultation Workshop March 2014 Interim results report

4th Consultation Workshop July 2014 Draft final results report

NEP Adopted Oct 2014 Gov approval of NEP