Economic and Community Impacts of Promise Programs:

Initial Results from Kalamazoo

Dr. Michelle Miller-AdamsAssociate Professor, Grand Valley State University

Research Fellow, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

April 14, 2014

The Kalamazoo PromiseAnnounced November 2005, to continue in

perpetuityFunded by anonymous private donorsFirst-dollar program (before other financial aid)Place-based: Kalamazoo Public Schools

Covers 65-100% of tuition and fees at any in-state, public post-secondary institution for KPS graduates

Minimum 4-year residency & enrollment requirement

Universal: Every graduate is eligibleStudents have 10 years in which to use funding

Promise Programs as Tools for Community Transformation

Promise programs seek to change the culture of a community, not simply award scholarships. They are:

Place-based – focus on a geographically bounded community

Universal or near-universal – everyone has a stake; broad buy-in throughout the community

Long-term – allow time for people to make choices based on the program’s benefits

The Promise movement takes off…Since the Kalamazoo Promise was announced, more

than 30 other communities have created Promise programs, with more in the works.

Annual PromiseNet conference draws representatives from 50+ communities.

Promise programs exist in all parts of the country, in communities of all sizes and types.

Goals include expanding higher education opportunities, creating a college-going culture in K-12 system, and economic/community development or revitalization.

Promise programs are not all alike… Models vary by:

Student eligibility Universal (all graduates eligible) or merit-based(usually 2.5, some

3.0 ,plus attendance requirement); a few needs-based

Eligible post-secondary institutionsFunding

First- or last-dollar Private, philanthropic, public (tax-based financing)

* Universal approach most likely to achieve economic development goals.

Economic Development RationaleEducation → Productivity → Economic Growth

Higher skilled workforce leads to faster rates of income growth, benefits even less educated workers

Higher rate of college-educated workers has a positive effect on a community’s employment growth

Strength of Urban Core → Regional Economic VitalityImportance of a healthy central cityInterdependence of cities and suburbsQuality education system essential for business investment

and in-migration by residents

Education and Economic Growth - Results

Students across all demographic groups are using the Kalamazoo Promise at roughly equal rates

High-school graduation rates in Kalamazoo are rising relative both to the past and to other urban districts

Promise recipients outpace the national average in college-going, retention, and completion

Highest-achieving students are shifting to in-state, public institutions in line with incentives provided by scholarship

Two-thirds of Promise recipients use scholarship to attend local institutions

Taken together, these trends suggest that the Kalamazoo Promise is having a positive impact on human capital development in the region.

Question: Where will these better educated residents choose to live and work as adults?

Future research needed on workforce participation and earnings by Promise recipients.

Education and Economic Growth - Results

Strengthening the Urban Core - ResultsEnrollment growth in Kalamazoo Public Schools

25% increase since 2005Fastest growing urban district in MichiganHas brought school district:

New financial resources (est. $28 million)New school construction (est. $30 million)New hiring (est. $11 million)

Improved perceptions → virtuous circleSales and recruitment tool for realtors and

businesses

12

Kalama-zoo Promise An-nounced

Changing Perceptions of the Public Schools– results of a media content analysis

Improving school district at center of region is strengthening perception of Kalamazoo regionally and nationally

Question: How can benefits be directed to urban core when school district extends beyond the City of Kalamazoo and encompasses some suburban areas?

Future research needed on impact of Kalamazoo Promise on housing market, population, juvenile crime, downtown development, and more.

Strengthening the Urban Core - Results

Challenges of Assessing Economic ImpactTime frame for economic development

impacts to unfoldDifficulty of determining causalityAbsence of a good counterfactual exampleDifficulty of quantifying effects on civic culture

Community alignment around educationCatalyst for other, broader efforts

Upjohn Institute Resources

Stakeholder consultationIn-person or virtual

Review of best practicesLandscape assessmentsFeasibility, design, and impact studiesCost estimates

Proprietary model developed through work with more than a dozen communities

Evaluation

Additional Resources

Questions or comments:miller-adams@upjohn.orghttp://michellemilleradams.comhttp://thepromiseofkalamazoo.org

W.E. Upjohn Institute - Kalamazoo Promise ResearchSpecial Topics: Kalamazoo Promisehttp://www.upjohn.org

Promise Research ConsortiumFuture PromiseNet conferences