© Fraunhofer

EU-Japan Seminar, Tokyo June 8th

, 2012

Dr. Lorenz GranrathFraunhofer Representative Office Japanwww.fraunhofer.jp

Technologies to change the energy system

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INTRODUCTION OF FRAUNHOFER

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Fraunhofer – Europes biggest applied reseach organisation

60 Institutes 20,000 employees Budget: 1.7 Bill. Euro

München

Holzkirchen

Freiburg

Efringen-Kirchen

FreisingStuttgart

PfinztalKarlsruheSaarbrücken

St. IngbertKaiserslautern

DarmstadtWürzburg

Erlangen

Nürnberg

Ilmenau

Schkopau

Teltow

Oberhausen

Duisburg

EuskirchenAachen St. AugustinSchmallenberg

Dortmund

PotsdamBerlin

RostockLübeck

Itzehoe

Braunschweig

Hannover

Bremen

Bremerhaven

Jena

Leipzig

Chemnitz

Dresden

CottbusMagdeburg

Halle

Fürth

Wachtberg

Ettlingen

Kandern

Oldenburg

Freiberg

Paderborn

Kassel

GießenErfurt

Augsburg

Oberpfaffenhofen

Garching

Straubing

Bayreuth

Bronnbach

Prien

Hamburg

Research for direct application in industry

Institutes work as profit centers Close link to universities Budget:

1/3 basic funding research ministry1/3 public/industry project funding1/3 industrial projects

Spin Offs by Fraunhofer researchers

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Health and nutrition Affordable healthcare

Challenges – ”The Markets Beyond Tomorrow”

Safety and security Disaster prediction and management

Information and communication

Mobility and transportation Low-emission, reliable mobility in urban areas

Energy and living Low-loss generation, distribution and use of electricity

Production and environment

Life-cycle production

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es ©

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unho

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ENERGY AND LIVING

Wind energy

Solar energy

Bioenergy

Efficient use of energy

Energy-efficient living

Intelligent energy distribution

Compact energy storage

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es ©

Fra

unho

fer;

MEV

;

We conduct research in the following areas:

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POSITION OF GERMANY AND JAPAN IN THE CHANGING ENERGY SECTOR

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Technologies needed to change the energy sector

Further improvement of fossile power generation

More efficient gas and coal power plants

CCS (Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage), reducing of CO2 emissions

RES and a »new energy economy«

Technologies to use sun, wind, water, geothermal energy

More decentrally organised new technologies for an intelligently networked »new energy economy«: CHPs, H2 generation and use, energy storage, smart grids

Energy efficiency

of buildings and appliances

of industrial process and manufacturing technologies

Improvement of existing and development of new technologies and concepts for energy supply and energy efficiency

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Global market trend in energy technologies

Worldwide marktvolume will surpass 1000 Bio. Euro/a

Especially strong increase renewable energy technologies in Newly Industrializing Countries

Securing market shares needs continuous technological development

CAGR: 5 %

Source: DIW/ISI; Roland Berger; ECORYS et al.

Energy supply Energy efficiency

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Dynamics of innovation

Since mid 2000s higher dynamics of innovation in the energy tournaround technologies

Especially renewable energy technologies are driving this dynamics

Increase in transnational patents

Source: Fraunhofer ISI

all patents

renewable/new energies

fossile power stations

energy efficiency

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Science base in „energy turnaround technologies“

USA, Germany and Japan are ahead

China and Korea follow up with high dynamism

Publication indi-cator shows a need to increase the knowledge base in Germany and Japan

Share of transnational patents and refered publications in 2009/2010

Source: Fraunhofer ISI

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High specialisation in Germany and Japan

Higher than average specialisation shows high importance of energy turnaround technologies in DE and JP

No specialisation but general innovation push in China and Korea

Challenges for Germany and Japan: Keep patent strenght Increase kowledge base in

publications Go into new fiels with high

innovation dynamics

Specialisation on energy turnaround technologies

RPA, RWA > 0 => specialisation higher than average

„energy change“ technologies

Specialisation patents (RPA)

Spec

ialis

atio

n ex

ports

(RW

A)

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ENERGY SECTOR IS ALREADY CHANGING

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European and German Energy Policy Targets

Basic year 2020 2050

EUROPEAN UNION

Reduction of Greenhouse Gas 1990 20% at least 80%

Increase of Energy Efficiency 1990 20%

Share of Renewable Energies 2009: 11.6% 20%

GERMANY

Reduction of Greenhouse Gas 1990 40% 80-95%

Increase of Energy Efficiency 2008 20% 50%

Share of RES total 2011: 12,2% 18% 60%

Share of RES on electricity 2011: 20,0% 35% 80%

=> Fundamental transformation of the energy system is necessary

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The shift towards Renewable Energies is ongoingNewly installed power capacity per year 1995 – 2010 in EU (MW)

Sou

rce

: E

WE

A 2

011

, EU

En

ergy

Pol

icy

to 2

050

Win

d

P

V

Coa

l

Nat

ural

Gas

Renewable Energies already exceeded fossil capacity installations

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EU: Renewables in the electricity mix 2005 / 2020Growth from 175 GW to 487 GW installed capacity expectedStrong shift towards Wind and Photovoltaics

Sou

rce

: E

WE

A 2

011

, EU

En

ergy

Pol

icy

to 2

05

0

Higher potential for Japan!

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Technologies needed

Efficiency

Grid expansion

Challenges to be tackled

Sustainable biomass

Higher costs for RES investments

New business models needed Governing the

transformation

Role of nuclearand fossil power

© Viktor Mildenberger / PIXELIO

Wind: No 1

© S

iem

ens

AG

PV: important

© Solarsiedlung

Mix of RES

E-mobility

Fluctuatingelectricity

© Kombikraftwerk

Storage© Talsperre ISA

Smart grid

© Fraunhofer

PHOTOVOLTAICS

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Photovoltaic world market 2011

Market size by region (GW / Share)

Europe 20.9 GW (76%)

Asia 4.1 GW (15%)

North America 1.9 GW (7%)

Rest of World 0.8 GW (3%)

Total 27.7 GW (100%)

Total installed world PV capacity end of 2011: 67.4 GW

Large European countries trying to reduce their PV market size: Germany, Italy, France

The share of Asia and North America is steadily growing

Data: EPIA PV market report 2011

© Fraunhofer 2012

Strong improvements by using Photovoltaics

System price reduced by 50% within 3 years

Electricity generation May 2012 in Germany: Wind and PV are significantly contributing

Gra

ph:

Will

eke

Monthly electricity production of Wind and PV in Germany from January to May 2012

Win

d PV

Fossil/nuclear power plants > 100 MW Wind Photovoltaics22.4 GW PV generation

(ca 30%) 25 May, 12:45 h

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Solar potential Japan - Germany

Source: Kinoshita et al. International Journal of Health Geographics 2007 6:34

Global solar radiation in Japan from 1971 to 2000

Source: European Comission, Joint Research Centre / PVGIS

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Research Example: Electric cars will be used widelyEfficiency of electro mobility is much higher than of combustion engines

Ultra-high-voltage grid Europe – North Africa

© Fraunhofer ISE

10 mx 10 m

Driving distance with energy from 100 m2 by different technologies

Vehicle efficiency Combustion engine: 20%Electric engine: 80%

Highest driving distance per square metre of energy harvest area for PV + e-mobility

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RESEARCH EXAMPLE High-efficiency concentrator solar cells and modules

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wavelength (nm)Po

we

r d

en

sity

(W

/m²

µm

)P

ow

er

de

nsi

ty (

W/m

² µ

m)

wavelength (nm)

Worse yield

Better yield

40% cellefficiency

30% moduleefficiency

25% plantefficiency

Puertollano (Spain)

Demonstration power plants show reliability and profitablility

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RES - STORAGE – SMART GRID – SAVING

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RESEARCH EXAMPLE Offshore wind park

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Twelve 5 MW class offshore wind turbines, water depth of 30m, 45 km off Borkum island

220 GWh per year

Clean energy for about 50.000 households

Coordination of research cooperation by Fraunhofer IWES

alpha ventus:

Worldwide unique test rig for Fraunhofer IWES offshore wind turbine rotor blades in Bremerhaven

Offshore-windpark alpha ventus in the North Sea

© Fraunhofer

Saving potential: lighting 80%, EU-15 Industrie: > 40 TWh/aEU-15 Residential: > 16 TWh/a

Saving potential: speed control drives can save 20 - 30% D Industry: 20-25 TWh/aD Residential: 8 TWh/a

Intelligent connection: virtual combi power station = 3 windparks, 4 biogas, 20 solar and a pumped hydro plant (Fraunhofer IWES)

Intelligent storage: 1) H2 production with RES, storage or use in FCV, etc. 2) electric cars serve as variable storage

10 TWh/a equals the production of one atomic power station, or two 500 MW coal power plants or 4000 wind turbines (1 MW class)

LED-street light

RESEARCH TOPIC

eEnergy – intelligent storage, connection, saving

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RESEARCH TOPIC Energy efficient buildings

Adaptedshading

Thermalinsulation

Tight buildingenvelopes

Latent-heatstorage

Advanced daylighting

Artificial ventilationwith heat exchanger

Solar heating

Solar cooling

Solarelectricity

Geothermal energy

Geothermal cooling

Future: Zero / plusenergy buildings

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Conclusions

A secure and cost-effective energy system with renewable energies is possible

Necessary is a mix of RES, with PV becoming a major pillar of the world energy system

Elements of the future energy system: - mix of renewable energies- efficiency in energy production distribution and consumption - smart grids- e-mobility- storages- zero energy buildings,…

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Thank you very much!

www.fraunhofer.jp