Dr. Jochen Tholen jtholen@uni-bremen 3.2 Tholen_Shipyard activities_201… · Dr. Jochen Tholen ([email protected]) Traditional and new fields for shipyards´ activities – some

Dr. Jochen Tholen ([email protected])

Traditional and new fields for shipyards´ activities – some

selected ideas

Presented to the OECD Council Working Party on Shipbuilding (WP6): Workshop

on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, Paris, 9 November 2015

University of Bremen, Germany

Traditional and new fields for shipyards´ activities – some selected ideas

mailto:[email protected]

Content

1. Pre-Remarks and State of the Art 2. Future trends and Global Maritime Technology Market

(Expectations) 3. Cluster (Meso Level), Diversification (Micro level), Path

dependent developments of shipbuilding/shipyards 4. Industrial policies by maritime countries as a framework

for the development for shipbuilding/shipyards 5. New Markets/new forms of Organization for Shipyards 6. Example: Offshore Wind Energy 7. Conclusions


2

Pre-Remarks and State of the Art-1

No Market Forecast (see OECD, SEA Europe, Fairplay, Clarkson Research, Douglas-Westwood and national associations et al), but a brief introduction into the State of the Art – current situation of shipbuilding: Overcapacities and oversupply (see in detail Session 1, see alsoVSM 2015, 38): New slump in the global market. Despite low crude oil prices&low interest rates, shipbuilding investments are low. Supply of transport capacities exceed demand (sharpened by a large number of ships still on order) New ship orders fell substantially during the 1st half of 2015 (ship sizes tended to increase)


3

Pre-Remarks and State of the Art-2

Korea reclaims in 2015 the lead in the market share among the shipbuilding nations (followed by Japan and China) In 2015 (first half) container vessels were ordered more frequently, doubling their market share (compared to 2014); demand for cruide oil tankers has recovered whereas the market share of bulk carriers has been cut in half. In 2015 many yards, including major companies in Korea, Japan and China, have incurred substantial losses while smaller yards went bancrupt. Between December 2014 and July 2015, newbuilding prices have dropped by 5 percent.


4

Future trends and Global Maritime Technology Market (Expectations) - 1

Maritime Technology Market (Expectations): Despite the current glooming situation of shipbuilding, there is a bright future for the maritime industries by using new technologies, the emergence of new markets and sustainable trends (= as drivers for future development): • Development of global population and commodity flow.

Despite the sluggish increase of the world population, many people (especially in parts of Asia, Africa, Latin America) want to increase their living conditions. That means that in the future global trade will increase, and due to this, sea-borne trade (roughly 90 percent of global trade) as well.


5


• Diversification/shift away from the traditional economic centres (Europe, North America, East Asia): In the future the „rest of Asia“, Latin America, Africa will be more included into the global flows (McKinsey 2014)

• Trend of currently non-shipping countries to build up their own shipping lines

• Climate Change - Sustainability • Rising Demand of Energy – Renewable Energy • Rising demand of food – other basic foods (like algae) • Shortage of raw materials – (not only continental areas

of mining)


6


This offers opportunities for „traditional“ maritime branches like shipbuilding, shipping, fisheries, and non-maritime branches (like mining, elictricity & energy, IT, construction, food processing industries etc. etc.) Threats: Political instability, lack of will to cooperate (between companies, branches, countries and world regions), technical risks, environmental uncertaincies, difficulties of financing


7


Global Maritime Technology Market – Sales Expectancy = 355 Billion USD per annum (Brodda 2015). From that 1. 197 billion USD come from system integration;

shipyards; project developer (Building of new ships incl. Floating Offshore); Repairing&Retrofitting; Marine-Navy (newbuilding and repair), Fixed Offshore Structure, Offshore Wind Energy, Boat Building

2. 169 billion USD come from Equipment, Materials, Services (see items Point 1 + Offshore Subsea, Port Equipment, Maritime Monitoring and Security Systems).


8

Vorführender

Präsentationsnotizen

Please note, sometimes there is a double booking/counting, according to Brodda And: The beneficiaries of this global maritime technology markets are not only traditional maritime sectors, but also other sectors like energy companies, mechanical and plant engineering industry, construction.


These expectations are not including so called expectation markets like • Deep Sea Mining (from 2025 onwards 5 – 12 billion

EURO per annum) • Gas Hydrates • Other Renewable Energies than Offshore Wind • Maritime biological populations (like algae etc.) Remark: The expectation of capital expenditure only of the Offshore Wind Energy market between 2015 and 2024 is in total 240 billion Euros – that means 24 billion Euros per annum (Douglas Westwood 2014a) – details see below


9

Cluster (Meso Level), Diversification (Micro level), Path dependent developments of

shipbuilding/shipyards - 1

How to meet these challenges/opportunities? 1. Construction of Clusters (Meso Level), assisted by

Public Industrial Policies (for the latter, see below). Features are:

• Regional Concentration/Focus • Flexible/spatial Specialization • Competition and Cooperation • Innovation based Knowledge • Joint Identity and Trust


10


shipbuilding/shipyards - 2

2. Diversification of shipyards (Micro level), to be understood as enlargement of the product portfolio or of the business domain. Here different dimensions can be identified: • Markets (regions, groups of customers, groups of

demand) • Items (products, performance, technologies) • Resources (raw/basic material, facilities/equipment,

manpower, Know How/knowledge).


11


shipbuilding/shipyards - 3 The starting point of the concept of „focussed diversification“ are the core competences of the respective shipyard. Target is to develop and to marketize new products within new markets by using and further development of existing competences. This lead to the path depedency of the shipyards´ focussed diversifaction strategies: On-path evolution (Martin 2010)=Continuous (and not abrupt) change, by modified competition rules, new competitors, technological developments and new locations. Traditional and new fields for shipyards´ activities – some

selected ideas

12


shipbuilding/shipyards - 4 Decisive factors for the success of path-dependent developments of shipyards are: • Special capabilities • Market opportunities • Regional conditions • Pushing actors: Entrepreneurship and Public Industrial

Policies


13

Industrial policies by maritime countries as a framework for the development for

shipbuilding/shipyards 1. There are different understandings of „Industrial Policy“, coming

from the „Varieties of Capitalism“ (Hall, Soskice 2001) considering the different, historically grown understandings, options of acting and strategies by single countries or/and world regions (e.g. EU, East Asia, North America).

2. Saying this, the core of Industrial Policies is Innovation Policy: National support programs for R&D + industrial innovation become increasingly important for economic development. Typical characteristics are:

stronger emphasis on stimulating market forces, innovation-enhancing framework conditions, support of cooperation activities, networks and regional clusters („open innovation“).


14

Vorführender


Further remarks to Innovation policy: Some movement away from supply-side policies and traditional „picking-up the winner“ policies can be observed, Since the global financial crisis in 2008/9, manufacturing innovation has also become an issue in many countries, as well as the stronger involvement of government in stimulation innovation and industry renewal.

New Markets/new forms of Organization for Shipyards - 1

Drafting from „FutureTrends“ (see charts 5&6), new markets/new forms of organizations are waiting for shipyards to be entered/applied: • Deep Sea Mining • Offshore – Oil and Gas • Green Shipping: New forms of Propulsion like LNG;

Waste Converting; Charging Amperage/Rates onshore (in harbours); etc.


15

Vorführender


New Markets/new forms of Organization for Shipyards - 2

• IT/Smart Factory: A new – digitized – platform is moving between customer and shipyard. Only this cooperate, which will govern this digital platform, will govern the production platform too. Recommendation: Governing both (digital and production) platforms.

Keyword 1: „Connected Smart Ship“ – sensor- driven ship (e.g. cooperation between Hyunday Heavy Industries/Korea and Accenture), Keyword 2: Supply Chain Management (e.g. „Touchpoint Cockpit“). • Renewable Energy: On- and Offshore Wind Energy (see in detail

below). Shipyards can (or already do) participate in these new markets/new forms of Organization by designing/building/providing ships, components/assemblies and services (including Know-How).


16

Vorführender


Touchpoint cockpit is a digital system, to organize and systematize human attitudes and behaviours. Out from a multitude of offers (e.g. from the maritime supply industry) the shipyard is able to select the most promising one. This system has been already adopted by AMAZON and the US Army in the Iraq. It is extremely flexible and cost saving.

Example: Offshore Wind Energy

To summarize, the need for reorientation of global shipbuilding (because of oversuppy and overcapacities), the future trends of traditonal and new (maritime and non-maritime) markets, and the industrial policies by countries and world regions, show clearly the strenghts and opportunities, but also the weaknesses and threats of these path-dependent developments of shipyards. This will be demonstrated now by the example of offshore wind energy (OWE):


17

Offshore-Construction-Platform

Jack-up vessel

Jack-up vessel

Cable-Layer Jack-up vessel

Station Ship

Tender


New markets for the shipbuilding industry: Ships, Components,

Service, Kow How

18

Source: GWEC, Global Wind Statistics 2014

Top Ten cumulative capacity until the end of

2014 (Onshore + Offshore Wind Energy)

19

Country MW % Share China 114,763 31.0 USA 65,879 17.8

Germany 39,165 10,6 Spain 22,987 6.2 India 22,465 6.1

UK 12,440 3.4 Canada 9,694 2,6 France 9,285 2,5

Italy 8,663 2,3 Brazil 5,959 1,6

Rest of World 58,275 15,8

Total Top 10 311,279 84,2

World Total 369,553 100.00

China

USA German

y

Spain

India UK

Canada France

Italy Brazil

Rest of World


Vorführender


Insgesamt beträgt die weltweit kumulierte Windleistung bis Ende 2014 ca. 369 GW. Dabei entfallen etwa 84 Prozent dieser Leistung auf zehn Länder. Zu diesen zehn Ländern zählen 5 europäische Staaten. Doch die ersten Plätze, bezogen auf die bislang installierte Windleistung, machen China und die USA unter sich aus. In China wurden bis Ende 2014 insgesamt über 114 GW Windenergie Leistung fertig gestellt. Dies entspricht einem Anteil an der weltweit installierten Leistung von 31 Prozent. Die USA liegen mit einem Anteil von 18 Prozent dahinter. Deutschland folgt auf Platz drei mit knapp 11 Prozent. _______ At all the worldwide accumulated windperformance in the end of 2014 is about 369 GW. About 84 percent of the performance are allotted to ten countries. Five of these ten countries are European countries. But on Top of these ranking are China and the USA. China produced about 114 GW in 2014, that is about 31 percent of the world wide performance. The USA produced about 18 percent. Third place goes to Germany with about 11 percent, followed by Spain with 6 percent.


Source: GWEC, Global wind report 2014

Wind energy market forecast till 2019 (Onshore + Offshore Wind Energy)

20


Source: GWEC, Global wind report 2014

Cumulative market forecast till 2019 by regions

(Onshore + Offshore Wind Energy) Forecast from 2014

21

OWE Market Forecast till 2020/5 - 1

• Global Annual Added Capacity: From 2.0 GW in 2014 up to 57 GW by 2024, driven by continued established markets (e.g. UK, Germany, China) and bolstered by emerging markets (e.g. US and France)development: The UK will install till 2024 more than 11 GW; as well as Germany. China is expected over 8 GW capacity. US and France are expected to have their first operational windfarms in 2015 resp. 2017. In the next years till 2024 the US is expected to install 1.8 GW, France 3.2 GW (Douglas-Westwood 2014a). Additional vessels WTIV required by 2025: 40-42 (= 177 % of the current fleet). Other vessel types such as jack-up barges or liftboats are expected to continue to participate in the market , limiting further growth for WTIVs (Douglas Westwood 2014, OECD 2015)


22

Vorführender


WTIV = Wind Turbine Installation Vessels

OWE Market Forecast till 2020/5 - 2

• Increasing wather depth (in the German North Sea Shelf Sea: 42 meters) und turbine size (now 10 MW), together with larger distances from shore (in Germany up to 100 km), will likely see requirements for larger cranes, challenging converter platforms on sea (transform energy at sea into co-current flow and onshore into alternating current) and long-distance cables between the offshore windfarms and the shore.

• Not only OWE vessels and components, but service (Know-How) is a further promising market for shipyards.


23

Vorführender


Co-current flow =Gleichstrom Alternating current = Wechselstrom

Various stages of expansion, offshore wind markets in March 2014

by non-European world regions

• China – 14 offshore projects in operation

(fully commissioned) – 14 offshore projects under

construction – 39 offshore projects authorized

• USA – 1 offshore project under


• Japan – 9 offshore projects in operation – 2 offshore projects authorized

• South Korea

– 1 offshore project in operation – 1 offshore project under

construction – 2 offshore project authorized


Source: offshore.com/windfarms ; 03.02.2014 24

Vorführender


Neben den europäischen Ländern, auf die im nächsten Abschnitt eingegangen wird, sind es insbesondere China und die USA, die den Ausbau der OWE vorantreiben, sich jedoch in ganz unterschiedlichen Ausbau-Stadien befinden. In China wurden bereits 14 OWE Projekte fertig gestellt. Die Gesamtkapazität der OWE Parks in China beläuft sich auf über 400 Megawatt. Weitere 14 Windparks befinden sich im Bau. Zudem wurden in China bereits 39 OWE Projekte genehmigt. In den USA befinden sich sehr viele OWE Projekte derzeit in frühen Planungsstadien. Ein Projekt befindet sich im Bau und vier weitere OWE Projekte wurden bereits genehmigt. Beyond some European countries (see below), especially China and the USA are drivers for the development of OWE, but being on diffferent stages of development: In China the overall capacity of the 14 windfarms in operation is over 400 MW (Status February 2014). Further 14 windfarms are under construction. And further 39 windfarms are already authorized. In the USA many OWE windfarms are in an early stage of planning. One project is already under construction, and 4 further windfarms are authorized. Quelle/Source: 4C Offshore, URL: http://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/


Example Europe 1: New installed European offshore wind energy

capacity from 2000-2013

Source: EWEA, Wind In Power: European statistics 2012, own sources for 2013

4 51 170

259

90 90 201 210

366

584

883 874

1.166

1.567

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

25

Vorführender


Nach einer kleinen Stagnation in 2011 wuchs die Anzahl neu installierter Offshore-Windanlagen um ca. 30% in 2012 im Vergleich zum Vorjahr. _______ After a short stagnation in 2011 the amount of new installed offshore windperformance increased about 30% in 2012.

Example Europe 2: Various stages of expansion,

offshore wind markets in March 2014 in Europe

• Germany – 7 offshore projects in operation – 9 offshore projects under construction – 22 offshore projects authorized

• Denmark – 14 offshore projects in operation – 1 offshore project authorized

• United Kingdom – 22 offshore projects in operation – 6 offshore projects under construction – 8 offshore projects authorized

• Netherlands – 4 offshore projects in operation – 13 offshore projects authorized


• Norway – 3 offshore projects in operation – 5 offshore projects authorized

• France – 2 offshore projects under construction – 1 offshore project authorized

• Europe – 69 offshore projects in operation – 19 offshore projects under


26


To be installed capacity (MW)

Example Europe 3: Political targets for offshore wind in Europe until

2020, status July 2014

Source: EWEA, WAB Industry report 2011; NREAPs, own sources

16.000

6.500 6.000 5.178 2.400 1.339 900 750 680 563 500 300 182 255

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000(8,000) Sum

42 GW

27

All European countries


Source: EWEA, WAB Industry report 2011

Leading European countries until 2020 (GW)/Selection

To be installed offshore power in all European countries (GW)

Example Europe 4: Leading markets until 2020 (Offshore wind energy)

Status: July 2014

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Example Europe 5: Political programs existing for the

development of the offshore wind energy/ status March 2014

• NREAP (total wind energy capacity 2.5 GW by 2020 [onshore & offshore], no specific plans for the development of offshore capacities)

• NREAP (8-16GW by 2020, 39 GW by 2030) • Renewable Energy Strategy 2009 • Renewables Obligation (RO) • Offshore Wind Capital Grants Scheme • (Energy Technologies Institute)

• NREAP • Renewable Energy Plan

2011 - 2020 (750 Mw by 2020)

• NREAP (500 MW offshore wind energy until 2020)

• Energy Policy of Poland until 2030 • NREAP (total wind energy capacity of 4 GW by 2020 [onshore & offshore])

• Offshore Energy Act • Energi21

• NREAP • EEG ([German Renewable Energy

Act] 6.5 GW by 2020, 15 GW by 2030)

• Law on Energy an Climate Fund • Kfw Programme Offshore Wind

Energy • Federal States Support for

Renewable Energy


• NREAP (6 GW by 2020) • Offshore wind tendering

mechanism

Source: www.iea.org/policiesandmeasures/renewableenergy/

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Vorführender


Norway Offshore Energy Act (Ministry of Petroleum and Energy) provides legal framework for issuing licences provides regulating conditions related to planning, constructing, operating and removing facilities for producing renewable energy and for transforming electricity at sea is based on area assessments with associated procedures for impact assessments Energi21 (Ministry of Petroleum and Energy) Sets out desired course for research, development and demonstration of new technology Objectives: Providing a coherent, long-term, industry-driven strategy that extends across he entire range of the energy sector Bring together the various stakeholders to work towards achieving a common goal Promoting research in areas relevant to the industry, with the aim of boosting value creating through technological development Norway-Sweden Green Certificate Scheme for electricity production (Ministry of Petroleum and Energy) Objection: increase the production of electricity from renewable sources (including owe) by 26.4 TWh by 2020 in both countries On 01.02.2012 a norwegian-swedish market for electricity certificates was established. The scheme runs until 2035 Finland NREAP 2020 targets: 33% of electricity demand met by electricity generated from renewable energy sources Total wind energy capacity of 2.5 GW, but no specific plan for offshore wind energy Germany NREAP 2020 targets: 37% of electricity demand met by electricity generated from renewable energy sources Energy and Climate Fund (EKFG), (Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety [BMU]) Special purpose energy and climate fund The money is dedicated to the promotion of of an environmentally-friendly, reliable and affordable energy supply KfW Programme Offshore Wind Energie Loans to finance offshore wind energy projects in Germany (up to 10) There are 3 loan amount versions (€400m, €700m, €100m) Federal States Support for Renewable Energy Federal states also provide their own support for renewable energy sources EEG (German Renewable Energy Act), (Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety) – revised August 2014 Aims of the scheme: To facilitate a sustainable development of energy supply To reduce the costs of energy supply to the national economy (also by incorporatingexternal long-term effects) To conserve fossil fuels and to promote the further development of technologies for the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources To achieve this the act aims to increase the share of renewables energy sources in electricity supply to 35% by 2020 50% by 2030 65% by 2040 80% by 2050 Target: To install 6.5 GW until 2020/15 GW until 2030 Contains a feed-in tariff structure For offshore wind: Initial tariff 0.15 €/kWh After 2018 the tariff for new turbines will be decreased by 7% annually (objection is to accelerate repayment of investment in offshore wind farms) There is an optional feed-in tariff model, which offers an initial tariff of 0.19 €/kWh paid for 8 years Poland Polish Energy Policy until 2030 (Ministry of Economy) Outlines a long-term strategy for the entire Polish energy sector, fuel and energy demand forecasts Primary directions: To improve energy efficiency To enhance security of fuel and energy supplies To diversify the electricity generation structure by introducing nuclear energy To develop the use of renewable energy sources, including biofuels To develop competitive fuel and energy markets To reduce the environmental impact of the power industry Sets following targets for renewable energy development: 15% share of r.e.s. initial energy consumption in 2020 10% market share of biofuels in transport fuels in 2020, while striving to make greater use of 2nd generation biofuels The development of agricultural biogas plants, biomass plants, onshore and offshore wind farms will be supported NREAP 2020 Targets: 15% share of renewable energy 500 MW offshore wind energy capacity Spain NREAP 2020 targets: 22.7% of share of energy generated from renewable sources Renewable Energy Plan 2011-2020 (Cabinet of Ministers / IDAE [Institute for Energy Diversification and Saving]) Sought to integrate the primary elements of the NREAP, plus additional analysis, among which stands out a detailed sectorial analysis covering, among other aspects, a technological development outlook and costs forecast adjusted the national 2020 target to 20.8% share of renewable energy (to respond to the effects of the current economic downturn) Royal Decree 1028/2007 (Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade) establishes the administrative procedures for processing permit applications for electricity generation facilities in Spains territorial waters. For offshore wind farms, this rule requires a minimum installed capacity of over 50 MW and establishes a system of competing bids. France NREAP 2020 targets: 23% of share of energy generated from renewable sources 6 GW offshore wind energy capacity Offshore wind tendering mechanism 2 rounds of tender in 2012, each auctioning 3 GW of offshore installed capacity UK NREAP 2020 targets: 15% share of energy generated from renewable sources 13 GW offshore wind energy capacity Renewable Energy Strategy (Renewable Fuels Agency [RFA]) Outlines how the UK will meet its legally-binding target to ensure 15% of energy comes from renewable energy sources by 2020 Contains 3 primary 2020 targets: Over 30% of electricity to be generated from renewable energy sources (mostly from wind power) 12% of heat to be generated from renewable sources 10% of transport energy to come from renewable energy sources To achieve these targets the strategy contains some key measures Renewables Obligation (Department of Energy and Climate Change; The Office of Gas and Electricity Markets) The governments main support mechanism for renewables market-based mechanism, designed to provide a substantial incentive for all eligible forms of renewable electricity Companies can meet their obligation by: presenting Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) paying a buy-out price equivalent to GBP 37.19/MWh in 2009/10 and adjusted each year with RPI a combination of the two Offshore Wind Capital Grants Scheme funds a number of demonstration projects that help reduce the costs and risks involved in such developments, and to maximise the contribution to the Government’s target for renewable electricity supply three rounds of offshore wind grants totalling £117 million have already been allocated. The aim was to stimulate early development of a significant number of offshore wind farms Energy Technologies Institute Partnership between international industrial companies (focus on energy) and the UK government remit is to invest in research and development to accelerate the development of secure, reliable and cost-effective low-carbon energy technologies

Example Europe 6: The European Perspective 1: Existence of networks

bringing together the different branches (Shipbuilding and Wind Energy

Industry)/status March 2014


Finnish Wind Power Association (FWPA) Wind Power Technology Group Shipyards take part: YES

RenewableUK East of England Energy Group Shipyards take part: YES

Wind Energy Association (AEE) Spanish Maritime Cluster (CME) Shipyards take part: YES

Offshoreenergy.dk Danish Marine & Offshore Group Danish Wind Industry Association Shipyards take part: YES

French Maritime Cluster (CMF) Shipyards take part: YES Polish Wind Energy Association

Shipyards take part: YES

No network: no participation of unions and/or shipyards

WindEnergy Network e.V. WAB - Wind Energy Agency Verband für Schiffbau und Meerestechnik Stiftung OFFSHORE-WINDENERGIE VDMA AG Schiffbau- und Offshore-Zulieferindustrie Nationale Maritime Konferenz Shipyards take part: YES

30

Vorführender


Finland Finnish Wind Power Association (FWPA) founded 1988 aim: creation of good conditions for wind energy development in Finland this is accomplished by mediating knowledge, participating in discussions and collaborating with authorities, organizations and the industry 280 members (230 private persons, 150 companies) the FWPA publishes a magazine called Tuulienergia Wind Power Technology Group Aim: intensify the cooperation between supplier companies 19 members Germany WindEnergy Network e.V. platform for all value creation chains in the offshore wind energy sector Aim: strengthening of domestic companies, settlement of new wind energy companies, connect interested parties with sector companies, universities, research facilities, administration and politics accomplished by active lobbying work, company networking, pooling of information and know-how and the representation of the network at trade-fairs 118 members WAB – Wind Energy Agency Contact point for involved parties in northwestern Germany and beyond Aim: bring existing contacts closer together and expand cooperation, connecting the different parties More than 350 members Organizes events, seminars, meetings etc. (e.g.: Windforce - Direction Offshore) Verband für Schiffbau und Meerestechnik e.V. (VSM) Provides members with specialist advisory and support services, represents the members interests in public and political institutions, promotes technical and commercial development in the shipbuilding and ocean industry 125 members Stiftung OFFSHORE-WINDENERGIE Aim: to strengthen the role of offshore wind energy in Germany and Europe, to promote the development of offshore wind energy Brings together different protagonists from politics, commerce and research; provides members and public with information; coordinates research VDMA Arbeitsgemeinschaft Schiffbau- und Offshore-Zulieferindustrie The Shipbuilding and Offshore Supply Industry Working Group is a part of VDMA (Europe’s biggest industry association) Aim: To create, through association activities, entry into new, important shipbuilding business markets; to ensure worldwide open markets and fair competitive conditions by encouraging efficient economic policies; to represent the technical and economic significance of this sector to the public 226 members Nationale Maritime Konferenz a biennial conference, which brings together protagonists from politics, the different maritime industries, research and trade unions Focus areas: Shipbuilding, maritime shipping, marine technology, offshore industry, protection of the environment and climate Poland Polish Wind Energy Association Aim: to improve the existing and to establish new legislative provisions, to increase political and social awareness in the area of wind energy to contribute to its dynamic development and increased use, which is the Associations primary goal pursued through joint activity of the members and by establishing a lobby, representing the sector’s interests towards local and national authorities and European institutions Spain Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) Aim: to promote the use of wind energy in Spain, Europe and worldwide by coordinating research into the areas surrounding wind energy and providing networking services Over 200 members Spanish Maritime Cluster (CME) Different networking activities like organizing meetings with politicians and round tables on specific topics 69 members France French Maritime Cluster (CMF) Aim: to promote the French maritime industries through their professionals and their economic activities and to identify synergies between them Main areas of activity: Communication Lobbying Networking activities 240 members Denmark Offshoreenergy.dk Aim: to strengthen and support the Danish offshore sector Main activities: networking activities in between businesses and between businesses and universities; Management of technical and industry-wide development projects; Knowledge sharing activities 275 members Focus areas are oil and gas, offshore wind, the offshore maritime area and wave energy Danish Marine & Offshore Group Platform for cooperation and knowledge exchange across industry boundaries Aim: Export of Danish marine and offshore products and solutions; joint system solutions; new business opportunities achieved by: Export networks; contact meetings; export drives; cooperation on national stand at international offshore exhibitions About 100 members Danish Wind Industry Association Aim: development of wind energy industry and its products About 280 members United Kingdom RenewableUK Aim: to create the right condition for the development of renewable energies carries out research, coordinates statistics and intelligence on marine and wind power Current priorities: Securing an effective Energy Bill, future role of onshore wind, developing the UK’s offshore supply chain, bringing down offshore wind costs, delivering long term support for wave and tidal energy, getting the feed-in-tariff right, preparing the skills base for renewables 660 members East of England Energy Group (EEEGR) Aim: development of energy sector in the East of England achieved through networking activities, hosting conferences and other events, lobbying, spreading information through the EEGR News Magazine Over 400 members

Example Europe 7: The European Perspective 2:

Shipyards involved in Offshore Wind Energy Business/

status March 2014


STX Turku (900 empl): Multipurpose cargo vessel is under construction: it will be used f.e. in transport of offshore wind farm structures. Also other offshore wind energy projects are part of shipyards‘ strategy, especially floating platforms. STX Rauma (700 empl): In shipyards‘ strategy building of foundations for offshore wind energy farms is important, but nothing really has happened yet. Technip Pori (800 empl): Manufacturing fixed and floating offshore windmills, but it is only a smaller part of business.

NAVANTIA (5,546 empl.): Offshore wind technical programs in deep water. CNN (Construcciones Navales del Norte) (230 empl.): Technical programs and offers of installing boats

STX France (2,200 empl.): Building one prototype of jacket for Alstom Groupe DCNS (12,500 empl.): Offshore floating wind turbines

Gdansk Shipyard Group: Tower manufacturing, subsea structures, support and construction vessels Crist S.A.: Jack-Up Vessels, Supply Vessels

Damen Shipyards Galati (1,994 empl.): Is currently building a cable-laying vessel for Van Oord

Fjellstrand AS (100 empl.): Support vessels Havyard Group: Support vessels Ulstein (800 empl.): Installation support vessel

SIAG/NSWE (900 empl.): Foundations and turbines A&R (470 empl.): SWATH-based offshore-support-vessels J.J. Sietas Shipyard (900 empl.): Jack-Up-Vessel for Offshore-Construction P+S Werften (2,000 empl.): Offshore-Installation-Vessels, Cable-Layer NORDIC Yards (700 empl.): Converter Platforms NOBISKRUG (300 empl.): Converter Platforms

31

Example South Korea 1, OWE and shipyards

Status July 2014

• Installed wind energy capacity (onshore & offshore): – 2012: 483 MW; New 2013: 79 MW; Total (End 2013): 561 MW

• Target: 23 GW installed wind energy capacity in 2030 (2.5 GW offshore) • Korean shipyards involved in offshore wind:

– Hyundai Heavy Industries (26,000 empl.; Turbines) – Samsung Heavy Industries (13,000 empl.; Turbines, Installation Vessels) – Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (30,000 empl.; Turbines) – STX Corporation (44,000 empl.; Turbines)

• The Korean Wind Energy Industry Association (KWEIA) promotes the wind power industry through building and strengthening cooperation projects, exchanging information and experience between its members

• The shipyards mentioned above are members of the KWEIA


32

Example South Korea 2: political programs 1, concerning OWE

Status July 2014

• Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) – Enforces power producers to supply a certain amount of the total power generation by new and

renewable energy – Aim: to create a competitive market environment for the sector; to accelerate Korea’s renewable energy

deployment

• National Strategy for Green Growth 2009-2050 – provides outline for further sustainable, environmentally friendly, based on renewable energy and energy

efficiency economic development – The strategy specifies various agendas in order to meet different goals like: Increase use of renewable

energy sources; Development of green technologies; Engineering a structural basis for the green economy

• The First National Energy Master Plan 2008-2030 – outlines future energy policy direction, such as the realization of low-carbon society, and calls for energy

security increase, rational use of energy, and environment protection – the government will actively support the development and deployment of non-fossil energy (new and

renewable energy, nuclear energy)

• Import tax reduction for renewable energy products – 50% import duty reduction on 31 products used in the generation of renewable energy


33

Example South Korea 3: political programs 2, concerning OWE

Status July 2014

• Act on the promotion of the development, use and diffusion of new and renewable energy

– aim: protect natural environment; promote sustainable development and economy; diversify energy sources through promotion and deployment of new and renewable energy technologies

– establishes New and Renewable Energy Policy Council under the Ministry of Knowledge Economy responsible for development and implementation of the policies in the sector of renewable energy in Korea

• 2nd Basic Plan for NRE Technology Development, Utilisation and Deployment – Research, Development and Deployment Plan for new and renewable energy: framework for further

development of renewables – Funding: US$ 7.6 billion – Grants and tax credits for companies investing in renewable energy RD&D

• Subsidy programme (Renewable energy demonstration and deployment) – Provides grants for renewable energy demonstration projects (to build a basis for new technology

development) and for general deployment of new renewable energy technologies (aimed at market expansion by partially subsidising installation costs)


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Evidence from an Empirical Project on Offshore Windindustry and Potentials for Shipyards in Germany (Ludwig, Seidel,

Tholen 2012)

Rev

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WP 1

WP 2

WP 4

WP 6

WP 3

WP 5

October

Novem

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Decem

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January

February

March

April

Myi

June

July

August

September

October

Novem

ber

Decem

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January

2010 2011 2012

Developing tools for the empirical work

45 qualitative Expert Interviews with representatives from Maritime and Offshore Windenergy sectors, politics (regionaol, national and Euroepan level)

Quantitative Survey of Shipyards and Offshore Windfarm Companies

4 Case studies

Final Report

Dissemination of Results

Ext

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Results 1: Abstract of the answers given by windpark operators/Germany

• Up to 2012 there were no ideas about ordering special types of ships from German shipyards.

• Cooperation between operators of windfarms and shipyards in planning the windfarms could hardly be found.

• Windfarm operators mainly prefer to charter instead of ordering new OWE ships

• BUT: Shipyards are able to produce converter platforms or basic structures like tripods/monopiles/floating construction platforms


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Results 2: Different perceptions by shipyards and by offshore-windfarm

operators in Germany

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There is a significant discrepance between the perception of the role of the shipyards in relation to their attendance in OWE business on the one hand and vice versa the perception of the windfarm operators in relation to the role of shipyards on the other hand.

Please note: Apart from the types of products the energy and shipbuilding sectors are very different:

• Mentalities • Supply industry and customes • Financing etc.


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Vorführender


• Just a few shipyards bring theirselves strategically into line for producing special ships for the Offshore-Wind Farms

• Others are involved in building up components and assemblies (e.g. converter platforms, basic structures like tripods, monopiles, floating construction platforms)

• Most of the shipyards do not have a spezific strategy. They hope for effects of pull-in steps.


Results 3: The German shipyards, do they benefit from the OWE?

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Results 4 (Case Studies): Typology of market entry strategies of shipyards

Corporation Concentraion on product ship

Integration of strategical

business partner

Financial condition for reorientation

Primarily shipbuilding

market

Intervention by politics +

innovation policies

Active, strategical reorientation

passive, externally controlled reorientation Cooperative collaboration of shipyards

Independent reorientation of shipyards


Homework: Please find out the position of your shipyard applying this typology

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Vorführender


This typology could be applied by all shipyards to find out their role within this new market. Can you describe the stage of development of your shipyard(s)?

Conclusions 1


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Conclusion/Germany: After a one year the „Gold Rush Fever“ of shipyards and energy companies (2011/12) evaporated, followed by a 2 years start of learning process (2012-2014) of the industries and the government (energy and industrial policy) in terms of new technology, financing (1 windfarm 1,5 billion Euro) and prices (for products and energy). From July 2014 onwards a realistic compromise between the government (EEG law), windfarm operators and windfarm constructors and the industry (among these: shipyards) was agreed = ongoing learning curve. Conclusion/World Market: The OWE market remain small as compared to offshore gas and oil, but this will be changed in the future. Furthermore, as we have seen before, especially in the OWE market, several types of policies by the respective governments and world regions (like the EU) have a significant impact on shipbuilding in the context of renewable energy. Additionally the OWE includes big challenges in terms of logistics, large investment requirements and construction/technological risks.


Conclusions-2 (can be adapted to all path-dependent developments/all

market entries of shipyards)

Both branches will be successful in the international competition, if they will follow the trends like

• (Partly) De-Clining of borders between corporates (here: merger of OWE company & Shipyard, especially of R&D and Processing);

• (Partly) De-Clining of borders between branches (here: between energy & Shipbuilding Industry & Maritime Supply Industry);

• Implementing core changes within the companies according to the concept of „Smart factory“. Characterized by adaptability, resource efficiency and advanced kowledge (labour force) as well as integration of customers, business partners, supply companies and value processes, or in short words: Bringing together the core businesses of Internet Companies and Manufacturing Companies (Networking of the Know How not only from shipyards, but from various branches as maritime supply industry, energy companies, mechanical and plant engineering industry);

• Advanced Human Resource Management.

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References

Brodda, J. 2015 (Balance Consulting, Bremen, Germany): Maritime Technologien. Innovative Industrie mit Zukunft, Berlin/Germany (Federal Ministry for Economics and Energy) July Douglas-Westwood 2014: Offshore Vessel, Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit&Floating Production Unit. Market Review, in OECD C/WP6(2014)13/Final, 17 December, Paris/France Douglas-Westwood 2014a: World Offshore Wind Market Forecast 2015-2014, http://www.douglas-westwood.com/report/renewables/world-offshore-wind-market-forecast-2015-2024/?gclid=CJK5t93E8cgCFcZuGwod-soA6A Hall, P.E.; Soskice, D. (2001): Varieties of Capitalism, Oxford University Press, Oxford/UK Ludwig, T.; Seidel, H.; Tholen, J. 2012: Offshore Windenergie: Perspektiven für den deutschen Schiffbau, edition Hans Böckler Stiftung, 270, Düsseldorf/Germany Martin, R. 2010: Rethinking regional path-depence: beyond lock-in to evolution, in: Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press/UK, 86,1: 1-27 McKinsey Global Institute 2014: Global Flows in a Digital Age, April OECD 2015: Shipbuilding and the Offshore Industry, C/WP6(2015)5/Final, Paris/France VSM (Verband für Schiffbau und Meerestechnik) 2015: Schiffbauindustrie, 02/2015, Hamburg/Germany


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Thank you very much for your attention

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Documents

Dr. Jochen Tholen jtholen@uni-bremen 3.2 Tholen_Shipyard activities_201… · Dr. Jochen Tholen ([email protected]) Traditional and new fields for shipyards´ activities – some