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Dr. Gus KoehlerDr. Gus Koehler• Dr. Gus Koehler (Principal Consultant) Time StructuresDr. Gus Koehler (Principal Consultant) Time Structures• Adjunct Faculty (Regional and Economic Development) Adjunct Faculty (Regional and Economic Development)
at the University of Southern California. at the University of Southern California. • Time Structures Focuses on Temporal (Time) Issues Time Structures Focuses on Temporal (Time) Issues
Associated with Business and Policy Development and Associated with Business and Policy Development and Implementation. Implementation.
• Consulting Areas:Consulting Areas:– Planning for Transport Systems to the European UnionPlanning for Transport Systems to the European Union– Computer Public Policy Simulations to RANDComputer Public Policy Simulations to RAND– California Legislature’s Joint Committee for Preparing California Legislature’s Joint Committee for Preparing
California for the 21st Century. California for the 21st Century. – NSF grant to Develop a Computer Simulation on the Timing of NSF grant to Develop a Computer Simulation on the Timing of
Public Policy Interventions and the Affects on Industry Public Policy Interventions and the Affects on Industry Clusters.Clusters.
CaliforniaCalifornia• California Redevelopment Association provides California Redevelopment Association provides
policy research and legislative advocacy support.policy research and legislative advocacy support.• Former Director of Community Colleges Economic Former Director of Community Colleges Economic
Development ProgramDevelopment Program– led a successful statewide legislative effort to led a successful statewide legislative effort to
reauthorize the program, receiving unanimous approval reauthorize the program, receiving unanimous approval from both Houses and the Governor. from both Houses and the Governor.
– Created ten initiatives to directly address workforce and Created ten initiatives to directly address workforce and economic development training concerns, the economic development training concerns, the transferring of technology to business, business transferring of technology to business, business development services, and international trade. development services, and international trade.
– Developed and Implemented a performance reporting Developed and Implemented a performance reporting system, including ROI and C/B analysis of outcomes.system, including ROI and C/B analysis of outcomes.
ResearchResearch• Senior Policy Analyst with the California Research Senior Policy Analyst with the California Research
BureauBureau• Conducted Policy Research for the California State Conducted Policy Research for the California State
LegislatureLegislature• The Governor and other elected officials.The Governor and other elected officials.• His research responsibilities included identifying His research responsibilities included identifying
and evaluating state economic development issues and evaluating state economic development issues and recommending strategies to address them.and recommending strategies to address them.
• 27 years in government service in such as areas 27 years in government service in such as areas as disaster response and management, consumer as disaster response and management, consumer protection, and health services. protection, and health services.
Technical Advisor and Technical Advisor and AuthorAuthor• Provided Technical AdviceProvided Technical Advice
– California Economic Development Strategy Panel, California Economic Development Strategy Panel, – Senate Select Committee on Economic Development Senate Select Committee on Economic Development – California Council on Science and TechnologyCalifornia Council on Science and Technology– The Workforce Investment Board’s Small Business Advisory The Workforce Investment Board’s Small Business Advisory
CommitteeCommittee– The Legislative Internet CaucusThe Legislative Internet Caucus– The Assembly Standing Committee on Jobs, Economic The Assembly Standing Committee on Jobs, Economic
Development and the EconomyDevelopment and the Economy– Member of the Council of Economic Advisors to the Workforce Member of the Council of Economic Advisors to the Workforce
Investment Board. Investment Board. • Prepared public policy reports onPrepared public policy reports on
– Biotechnology, California’s foreign trade policy, bio-industry, Biotechnology, California’s foreign trade policy, bio-industry, small manufacturing, business networks, and California small manufacturing, business networks, and California economic development. economic development.
• Received a Small Business Administration Vision 2000 award Received a Small Business Administration Vision 2000 award for his research on early-stage venture capital investment. for his research on early-stage venture capital investment.
• Written over 100 Academic Articles and StudiesWritten over 100 Academic Articles and Studies• Presented Papers and Speeches to various government, Presented Papers and Speeches to various government,
academic and private sector organizations.academic and private sector organizations.• Ph.D. in Political Science and Sociology, University of Ph.D. in Political Science and Sociology, University of
California at Davis.California at Davis.
Connections Make All The Connections Make All The DifferenceDifference
Gus KoehlerGus KoehlerTime StructuresTime Structures
Sacramento, CASacramento, CA916-564-8683916-564-8683
[email protected]@earthlink.net
The Problem:The Problem:• A disconnect between the velocity of government A disconnect between the velocity of government
and its capacity to envision and manage complex and its capacity to envision and manage complex regulatory and programmatic interventions, and regulatory and programmatic interventions, and the velocity of the regulated sector, producing the velocity of the regulated sector, producing unexpected future outcomes. unexpected future outcomes.
The Solution:The Solution:• Ideally, adaptive Governance permits Ideally, adaptive Governance permits
government to pattern an intervention to match government to pattern an intervention to match the velocity of a regulated sector thereby the velocity of a regulated sector thereby achieving a desired future goal.achieving a desired future goal.
Global Competition Factors Affecting Firms and Global Competition Factors Affecting Firms and JobsJobs
• Trained, productive laborTrained, productive labor• Faster technology churnFaster technology churn• Rapid product Rapid product
developmentdevelopment• Price and quality Price and quality
competitioncompetition• Protection or invasion of Protection or invasion of
marketsmarkets• Information technologyInformation technology• Flexible strategiesFlexible strategies• Global alliances and Global alliances and
networksnetworks
• Global availability of talentGlobal availability of talent• Increased innovation Increased innovation
globallyglobally• Converging competitive Converging competitive
advantage of high-tech advantage of high-tech regionsregions
• Global adoption of Global adoption of Information and Information and Communications Communications technologytechnology
• Regional independence Regional independence conditioned multinational conditioned multinational corporations, new forms of corporations, new forms of business networking and business networking and associated global associated global distribution systems.distribution systems.
Firms: Regions:
California’s “Six-Surge” Economy
gold
Civil War
WWI
Depression
1860
1900
1930
1950
WWII
1970
Vietnam
Warend
ColdWarend
Bubbleburst2000
1990
2000
railroads agriculture
Hollywoodoil
defense
micro-electroni
cspc
Internet
Velocity of Government Policy TimeVelocity of Government Policy Time
• 6 months to 2 years for an issue to become politically 6 months to 2 years for an issue to become politically visiblevisible
• 10-20 minutes to advocate concept to Legislator or 10-20 minutes to advocate concept to Legislator or staffstaff
• 1-2 years to complete legislative process1-2 years to complete legislative process
• Urgency bill 9 monthsUrgency bill 9 months
• 10 days to 6 months for emergency regulations10 days to 6 months for emergency regulations
• 1-2 years for non-emergency regulations1-2 years for non-emergency regulations
• 1-2 years to design and staff or seriously change 1-2 years to design and staff or seriously change existing government programsexisting government programs
• 6 months to 1 year to make and refine policy 6 months to 1 year to make and refine policy initiatives based on field experienceinitiatives based on field experience
• Litigation of various time (years)Litigation of various time (years)
New Economy Product Cycle and Government Regulatgory Activity Compared
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
Months
New EconomyProduct Cycle
GovernmentStatute andRegulatoryImplementationBuilding Permitand Inspections
Government vs. New Economy Growth and Time Frames
Future
Appears to be:
Timing of Actions is:
Change is: Growth is:
Government Predictable Linear Clock: Budget cycle Regulatory
Bounded by Legal Process
Hierarchical or "Tree-Like"
New Economy
Uncertain or Unpredict-able
Cyclical (product) Punctuated (Stock Market), Etc.
Emergent, Emotional, Spontaneous, Orderly, or?
Complex and Multi- Dimensional or "Rhizomic"
Nodes, Hubs, And LinksNodes, Hubs, And Links
Node: a point—person at aparty for example—having aboutThe same number of linksto another (road map)
Hub: a point with multiplelinks to many nodes (airporthub).
A
BC
DE
F
A
F
Links: The higher the ConnectivityThe less the distance, the faster theDispersion of information, ideas, products
Government Nodes and Government Nodes and LinksLinks
State Agency
Dept. 1 Dept.2 Dept. 3
Division a Division b Division c
Branch 1
Branch 2
Division a Division b Division c Division d
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3Section 1
Local
Government HubGovernment Hub
CCST
Unions
Biotech
Nano
SBDCTrade
Multi-M
Manufacturing
Agency
TTCA
CalEdChamber
CoordinationUnit
Percolation And LinksPercolation And Links
50% Connectivity makes Networks grow like a Forest fire.Think: ideas, information, and products
SE Bakersfield: Enterprise SE Bakersfield: Enterprise ZoneZone
Regional LevelWorkplaceLearning
JDIF Biotech MultimediaIDRC
InternationalTrade
Health
ContractEd.
Environ.Tech
Applied Comp.Tech
SBDCAdv. Trans.
Tech..
TTCA, CCCO, EDDRegional Collabs.
ManufacturingExcellence Prog.
ED>Net AdvisoryCommittee
ED>Net
Dept. of Education
Technology, Trade and Commerce
EmploymentDevelopment Dept.
ChancellorsOffice
Los RiosState Level
MEP/Coordination
Local Community
Workers/BusinessesOf An Industry Cluster
RegionalTech. AllianceTrade
OfficesLoan
ProgramsLabor Union
BusinessAssoc.
RegionalCollab.
Local Econ. Dev. Comm.
EDD-One Stop
Vocational Education
WorkforceInvestment Board Board
Foundations
CCAOE
ETP
Connections: SummaryConnections: Summary
• Government is a Government is a hierarchyhierarchy of of nodesnodes. It is rigid, . It is rigid, suitable for mass productionsuitable for mass production
• Economic Development services are resources, Economic Development services are resources, ideas and information nodes connected by ideas and information nodes connected by hubs.hubs. They are They are rhizomicrhizomic like industry like industry
• New industry clusters are new connections and New industry clusters are new connections and rapidly disseminated information, resources, rapidly disseminated information, resources, products (percolating)products (percolating)
• Interlocking policy and management networks Interlocking policy and management networks create hubs that keep the network productive and create hubs that keep the network productive and reduces vulnerability to failure particularly if reduces vulnerability to failure particularly if percolationpercolation is encouraged. is encouraged.