Dr. Deborah Ann Sunter · United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Cities and Climate Change: Policy Directions (UN, 2011). New Construction Opportunity Mumbai 17/49 Urban

Dr. Deborah Ann Sunter

BS Cornell University

MS/Ph.D. University of California, Berkeley

Postdoc U.S. Department of Energy & UC Berkeley

2/49

City-Integrated Renewable Energy for

Meeting Global Sustainability Needs

World is Becoming More Urban

3/39United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, "World Urbanization Prospects:

The 2014 Revision, CD-ROM Edition," 2014.

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Cities and Climate Change: Policy Directions (UN, 2011).

Cities Responsible for 70% of

Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases

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A solution that addresses climate

change must also address cities.

“The battle for sustainable development…

is going to be largely won or lost

in our cities.”

Toepfer, Director of UN Environment Programme

City-Integrated Renewable Energy

7/49Bahrain Twin Towers CIS Tower: Manchester, UK

City-Integrated Photovoltaics

8/49

Creative Solar Solutions

Go Beyond Rooftop Solar

CIS Tower: Manchester, UK

City-Integrated Solar Thermal

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City-Integrated Geothermal

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City-Integrated Wind

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Renewable

electrical

generation

Mitigation of the

urban heat island

effect

Pollution

dispersion

Ventilation

Bahrain Twin Towers Guangzhou’s Pearl River Tower

Is City-Integrated Renewable Energy Capable of

Satisfying the Large Energy Needs of Cities?

12/49Bahrain Twin Towers CIS Tower: Manchester, UK

13/49

Power Density Needs Can’t be Met by

Commercially Available Technologies

Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability."

Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928

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Reduce Energy Consumption


Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928

15/49



Increase Power Density of Renewables


Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928

Reduce Urban Energy Consumption

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New Construction Opportunity

Mumbai

17/49

Urban

Buildings

80% of all buildings that will

stand in India in 2030 have yet

to be constructed as of 2010

https://in.finance.yahoo.com/photos/labourers-construction-

residential-building-mumbai-photo-043252658.html

More Affordable Than Expected

18/49Greening Buildings and Communities: Costs and Benefits, Good Energies, 2008.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nu

mb

er

of B

uild

ing

s

Public Perception:

17% added cost*

Median in Data:

< 2% added cost

*2007 opinion survey by World Business Council for Sustainable Development

Range of Reported Premiums

Additional Cost to Build Green:

Evidence from 146 Green Buildings

New Construction Mandates

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1 2 3 4 5 6

All Residential 148431 147753 148649 147889 155348 151432

Zero Net Energy 140 480 7432 14789 31070 151432

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

New

Constr

uction S

tart

s

California: Estimated Number of ZNE Homes Per YearCompared to New Construction Starts

New Residential Zero Net Energy Action Plan 2015‐2020. California Energy Commission

Efficiency Division & California Public Utilities Commission Energy Division.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Current Status


Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928

Reduce Energy Consumption 50%

21/49Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability."

Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928

22/49



Increase Power Density of Renewables


Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928

Photovoltaic Technology Innovation

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This plot is courtesy of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

Vertical Axis Wind Turbines Increase

Power Density by Order of Magnitude

24/49Dabiri JO, Greer JR, Koseff JR, Moin P, Peng J (2015)

“A new approach to wind energy: opportunities and

challenges,” AIP Conference Proceedings 1652: 51-57.

Sunter, Deborah A., Dabiri, John O., and Kammen, Daniel M.

Science. (E-Letter, June 24, 2016 and September 10, 2016)

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6288/922.e-letters.

Power Density of Renewables: Laboratory

Tested Efficiency, Optimal Resource

25/49Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability."

Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928

Improve Power Density of Renewables

26/49Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable

energy for urban sustainability." Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928.

27/49

Case Study:

Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban

Transportation Needs

Urban Transport Electrification

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Urban

Transport

% N

ew

Lig

ht

Duty

Vehic

le S

ale

s

Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “Electric Vehicles: Revolutionizing Energy.” 2011.

Urban Transportation Energy Consumption

29/49Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban

sustainability." Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928.

87 Global Cities Considered

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GoogleMaps: UITP Millenium Cities

Photovoltaic Coverage Needs

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𝑢transport

=𝑒transport

ρurban

𝑢solar= ηPV𝐺

% PV Coverage Required

=𝑢transport

𝑢solar

𝑢 = energy density

𝑒 = energy per capita

𝜌 = population density

𝐺 = solar insolation

Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., “City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs,”

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 204 (2016): 559-567.

City Attribute Analysis:

Data Science Technique

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• The UITP Millennium Cities Database

contains over 200 attributes, including

factors related to:– Urban form

– Existing transportation infrastructure and investment

– Behavioral patterns

– Time and energy efficiency of a variety of modes of transportation

– Transportation pricing and fines

• Extremely Randomized Forest– Well-suited for datasets with more attributes (200+) than

samples (87 cities)

City Attribute Analysis Results

33/49225 Features

% R

eduction in S

SR

(S

um

of

the S

quare

d R

esid

uals

)

Feature Importance Based on Extremely Randomized Forest



City Attribute Analysis Results

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% R

eduction in S

SR

(S

um

of th

e S

quare

d R

esid

uals

)

Total private passenger

vehicle kilometer per

urban hectare

Bus vehicle kilometer

per urban hectare

Annual road

investment per

kilometer of road



Highest Ranked Features

Private Passenger Vehicle Use Predicts

Feasibility of PV-Powered Transportation

35/49Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., “City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs,”


Solar Insolation Does Not Adequately Predict

Feasibility of PV-Powered Transportation

Solar Insolation Private Passenger Vehicle Use

36/49Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., “City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs,”


Policy Implications

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• Most cities required only moderate

coverage (<15% of the urban land

area).

• Only statistically significant feature:

total private passenger vehicle

kilometres per urban hectare.

• Comprehensive policies are needed

to not only encourage city-integrated

photovoltaics for use in the urban

transportation sector but also to

reduce urban transportation energy

needs through decreased private

vehicle use.

38/49

A solution to climate change may be

found in our cities.

39/49

Thank You

Documents

Dr. Deborah Ann Sunter · United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Cities and Climate Change: Policy Directions (UN, 2011). New Construction Opportunity Mumbai 17/49 Urban