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Doug ElliottSask Trends Monitor
444 19th AvenueRegina, Saskatchewan
S4N 1H1 306-522-5515
The Demographics of the The Demographics of the Saskatchewan Labour MarketSaskatchewan Labour Market
a presentation to the
Saskatchewan Centennial SummitJanuary 2005
January 2005 2
Twenty Year Labour Market ProjectionTwenty Year Labour Market Projection
• A projection of the Saskatchewan labour force to 2023 has been prepared for Saskatchewan Learning. This Labour Market Trends report updates a previous report published in 2000 and is the basis for the material in this presentation.
• Projecting the size of the labour force involves i) projecting the population, and then ii) projecting labour force participation rates. The assumptions underlying the projection are:– a “present trends continue” scenario for the population;– modest improvements in inter-provincial migration flows;– declining fertility rates among Aboriginal women, stable rates for
non-Aboriginal women;– no change in mortality rates;– increasing labour force participation rates for women and the
Aboriginal population.
January 2005 3
Natural Growth Rate (births less Natural Growth Rate (births less deaths)deaths)
• The “natural growth rate” has fallen to 2,000 persons per year from over 10,000 in the early 1980s. It will continue to be low.
• That means the size of the provincial population will be determined by migration to an even greater extent than it is now.
Natural Population Growth in Saskatchewan
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1971-72
1976-77
1981-82
1986-87
1991-92
1996-97
2001-02
2006-07
2011-12
2016-17
2021-22
July to June:
thousands
Births
Deaths
NaturalGrowth
projectedactual
January 2005 4
Interprovincial MigrationInterprovincial Migration• International migration
to Saskatchewan in the 1990s averaged about 2,000 persons per year; too small to have much of an aggregate effect.
• Interprovincial migration has been and will continue to be the most important determinant of population growth.
• The projection assumes that net interprovincial migration will fluctuate near zero over the forecast period.
Interprovincial Migration To/ From Saskatchewan
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1973-74
1976-77
1979-80
1982-83
1985-86
1988-89
1991-92
1994-95
1997-98
2000-01
2003-04
July to June:
thousands
outgoing
incoming
net
January 2005 5
Population ProjectionPopulation Projection
• With these assumptions, the population will continue to fluctuate near one million as it has in the past.
• Within the one million residents, a number of important changes in the age distribution will take place.
Saskatchewan PopulationActual and Projected
840
860
880
900
920
940
960
980
1,000
1,020
1,040
1,060
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
as of July 1
thousands
projectedactual
January 2005 6
Age Distribution of the Sask Age Distribution of the Sask PopulationPopulation
• The older end of the “baby boom” generation is already contemplating retirement. (The average age of retirement in Canada is now 60 years.)
• The “echo” in is relatively large compared with Canada as a whole because of the Aboriginal population.
• There is Saskatchewan’s competitive advantage - the presence of a large potential labour force - to mitigate the effects of a shortage caused by retiring boomers.
Age Distributions in 2003
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80
Canadaequivalent
Boom
Bust
Echo
January 2005 7
Age Distribution in 2003Age Distribution in 2003
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78
2003Total =995,000
Aboriginal = 14%
25 to 59 years of ageTotal = 454,000
Aboriginal = 12%
Non Aboriginal
Aboriginal
January 2005 8
Projected Age Distribution in 2013Projected Age Distribution in 2013
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78
2013Total =994,000
Aboriginal = 17%
25 to 59 years of ageTotal = 466,000
Aboriginal = 15%
Non Aboriginal
Aboriginal
January 2005 9
Projected Age Distribution in 2023Projected Age Distribution in 2023
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78
2023Total =988,000
Aboriginal = 20%
25 to 59 years of ageTotal = 435,000
Aboriginal = 21%
Non Aboriginal
Aboriginal
January 2005 10
The Size of the Labour ForceThe Size of the Labour Force• An increase in labour
force participation rates will be required to keep the decline in the population from translating into a decline in the labour force.
• The key to increasing these rates is the Aboriginal population. With increases in education levels, 22% of new labour force entrants could be Aboriginal in 2015.
Effect of Participation Rate Scenarios on the Size of the Labour Force
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
Increasing participation rates
Constant participation rates
thousands
projectedactual
January 2005 11
Some Implications for the Labour Some Implications for the Labour MarketMarket• This kind of general decline in the labour market will happen here
before it does in other provinces. There is disagreement among economists about the impact but we expect one or more of the following will happen.– The demand for labour will generate an increase in wage rates, attracting
workers from other provinces or countries.– The same increase in wage rates will attract those not employed
(particularly seniors) to enter or re-enter the labour market.– The economy will shift from labour intensive activities to capital intensive
ones.– There will be an increasing number of “occupation-specific” skill shortages.– There will be a general economic slowdown.
• To avoid the economic slowdown, the province needs to – increase international and interprovincial migration to the province, – retain our young well-educated youth, and – raise education levels in the population generally and the Aboriginal
population specifically.
January 2005 12
Employment Rates Need to IncreaseEmployment Rates Need to Increase
• In 2001, only a third of First Nation residents in Saskatchewan were employed. This compares with 59% of Métis and 78% of the non-Aboriginal population.
• Lower levels of completed education in the Aboriginal population explain most of the difference.
Employment Rates in 2001, Saskatchewan, 15 to 64 Years of Age
35%
59%
78%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
First Nations Métis and other Non-Aboriginal
January 2005 13
Education is the KeyEducation is the Key
• Employment rates are above 80% among those who have completed high school and above 85% if they have a post-secondary degree, certificate, or diploma.
• Increasing the education levels of the Saskatchewan population in general and the Aboriginal population specifically is the key to avoiding an economic slowdown because of labour shortages.
Employment Rates by Education, Saskatchewan, 2003, 25 to 64 years
50%
67%
82%78%
85% 86%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less thangrade 9
Grade 9 to11
Highschool
Incompletepost-sec
Certificateor diploma
Degree
CopiesCopies
copies of this presentation and the Labour Market Trends Report are available on:
www.sasked.gov.sk.cawww.sasktrends.ca
for more information contact Doug Elliott at:[email protected]
