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Dominoes in the Middle East: A Summary of So Far, and What May Happen

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By: Austin C. Howe, Columnist

It was thought by US foreign policy advisers in the 60s that if the US

government allowed Vietnam to fall to Communism, subsequent communisttakeovers would occur in neighboring countries such as Cambodia, referred to as

the Domino Theory. The theory had historical weight considering the

Communist revolution that occurred in Russia, leading to rebellions in China and

North Korea. And they were right. Not long after the US pulled out of Vietnam for

good, Cambodia also experienced an uprising, as did Laos.

A similar event is occurring in modern times.

What is already being called the Tunisian revolution began back in December

2010, rooted in the lack of political freedoms allowed by the regime of longtimedictator president Ben Ali, watered by stagflation: high unemployment, paired

with high inflation, especially in crucial food prices.1 Whilst protests had

occasionally occurred, their was still something missing that would lead to such

anger and fury as to overthrow a government. What it was missing was a man

named Mohamed Bouazizi.

The story is as follows: Bouazizi had an extended family of 8, which he

supported alone. His only source of income was from selling fresh vegetables on

an unlicensed cart. A policewoman one day comes by and confiscates the cart.

Mohamed attempts to pay the fine, after which the regulator spits in his face and

insults Mohameds late father. After failingly attempting to complain at the police

station, where he was ignored, he went out into the streets of Sidi Bouzid,

doused himself in gasoline, and set himself on fire.

Anti-government attitudes waved over the country more than ever before, and

slowly, more and more factions began to strike and protest in the streets: the

general trade union, lawyers, families from working class suburbs, etc. Police

tried to resist, but by the 14th of January, the military had become sympathetic to

the revolution, chasing Ali out, who dissolved his government and declared a

state of emergency.

Inspired by the events in Tunisia, protests immediately broke out in countries

across the Middle East, including Yemen, Libya, and our next stop, Egypt.

1This condition is so bad it is literally measured by a scale called the Misery

Index, created by economist Arthur Okun

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Besides the suicide by self-immolation, the revolution in Egypt played out in

almost exactly the same way as in Tunisia. In addition to lack of freedoms and

human rights, high unemployment paired with inflation led to unrest with Labor

unions, and the middle and lower classes. The military became sympathetic to

protestors almost immediately. President2 Hosni Mubarak, leader of Egypt

under emergency rule for over 3 decades insisted that he would not resign. Hekept on insisting until the day that surprise-surprise, he resigned.

The fiercest and most recent protests occurring right now are happening in

Libya. According to many reports, the official government, headed by Mumar

Ghadafi, has lost control of the entire eastern half of the country, and protestors

are slowly closing in on the capitol, Tripoli.

Ghadafis regime has enacted the most brutal crackdown on protests yet, using

real gunfire to control crowds and leading to actual fighting between police,

Ghadafi loyalists, and anti-government factions.

The United Nations representatives of Libya have all resigned their posts,

saying that they are loyal to the Libyan people, not the Libyan government.

After being ordered to perform a bombing run on protestors, two high-ranking

Libyan Air Force fighters, Colonels, defected to nearby Malta.

An opposition government has been established by former Libyan justice

minister Mustafa Jeleil3, even going so far as to claim Tripoli as its capital,

though its offices currently reside in nearby Benghazi.

In addition to the three fiercest, protests continue in Yemen, Iran, Oman,

Morocco, Algeria, and protests have even spread to China.

But a revolution and unrest continues long after the end of the initially protested

government. After all, we declared Independence in 1776, but the constitution

was not written and ratified until 1787.

Protests have already occurred against the newly established government in

Tunisia, and speculation is ongoing as to who will replace Mubarak in Egypt.

2Note the use of quotes around President. Presidents are supposed to

Preside. Theyre also supposed to be democratically elected by the people.

Neither Ali nor Mubarak have met these requirements in over 30 years.3Full name not printed in regular article text: Mustafa Mohamed Abud Jeleil.

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In addition, no one is entirely sure whether these new governments will keep

their alliance with the US, as many of them did. This is especially crucial in

Egypt, where their longtime alliance with Israel, sculpted by US President Jimmy

Carter in the late 70s, has been crucial to keeping Israel safe from invasions

from the south and southeast.

As always, everyone here at the Gatoratipromises continual, accurate updates

on the situation.