“The differing influence of public opinion is mediated largely through a president’s beliefs about the proper influence that public opinion

should have on foreign policy”1

American politics – two strands of democratic theory suggest alternative views of the manner in which elected officials respond to public

opinion:

DEMOCRATIC THEORIES

1. The delegate view: Officials act as the public’s representative by acting on their constituents’ wishes. Public opinion, it is argued, should

play a vital role in formulating policy, and policies should reflect public preferences on important matters, as expressed through available

mechanisms (voting, polls, and interest group activity).

2. The trustee view: elected officials rely more on their own judgment than on presumably uninformed opinions of their constituents. In this

view, officials handle the complicated issues facing the government, and the public’s involvement is limited primarily to selecting

candidates at the ballot box. This view portrays the public as uninformed.

Pluralist model: power is dispersed throughout the society, there is no one set of dominating interests. Media and public are independent

from political influence, and they act as constraints of the government.

Elite model: media and public are subservient of political elites. Media acts mobilizing consent in support of respective policies.

1 Foyle, Douglas, Counting the Public In Presidents, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy (New York, 1999), p. ix.

4 possible explanations of the correlation between public’s view and the actions of elected officials

Bernard Cohen: Powlick, Russet, Kusnitz: Page, Shapiro Graham:

P.O. plays little role, leaders

attempt to shape it.

It reflects the realist position.

1. Decision’s makers ignore P.O.

with public support automatically

following policy.

2. Decision’s makers ignore P.O.,

but, they support efforts to

change’s public’s mind after

setting the policy.

3.Media can perform an agenda

setting role: issues get attention

from politicians due to media

coverage, but, it had little impact

on their decisions.

P.O. influences by eliminating

F.P. options because of public

opposition.

P.O. set parameters of acceptable

alternatives.

Electoral consequences are seen

as the biggest constraint.

Successful policy needs to have

public support or lack of

disapproval.

P.O. and policy interact in a

manner that lies in the middle of

P.O. leadership and elites’

manipulation.

P.O. can cause decision makers to

choose policies the public prefers.

P.O. affected policy more often than

policy alters opinion.

High public approval ratings seem to

influence presidential decisions to

use military forces more than

international conditions do.

Democratic responsivness and

manipulation can exist at the same

time.

Elites may often turn to P.O to assess

policy means and ends.

P.O. often affect policies, but, this

depend on the level of public

support for a policy option.

*Decision makers can oppose to

P.O. If:

1.less than 59% supported the

policy.

2.levels of 60% or more decision

making.

3. Effectiveness of elite

communication strategies, the

stage of policy process and elite

awareness of the dimensions of

P.O> matter.

Other variables: proximity of

elections, type of issue under

consideration, individual

sensitivity to public opinion, and

decision context.

CLASSICAL REALISTS (trustee

perspective)

LIBERALS (delegate perspective) BELIEFS MODEL (Douglas Foyle,

1999)

Critical approaches (Herman and

Chomsky, 1988)

Public opinion=constraints the free hand

of policy makers to make wise foreign

policy. (Morgenthau).

Public’s slow response to events and

lack of information threatens the

wellbeing of any nation that relies on

public opinion to guide foreign policy.

(Lippman)

HOWEVER, ELITES USUALLY

IGNORE THE PUBLIC’S

PREFERENCES ALTOGETHER OR

PERSUADE THEM TO SUPPORT

THE CHOSEN POLICY.

WHY?

F.P. depends on:

*Complicated trade offs

*Access to secret information

*Sophisticated reasoning

CONCLUDE:

P.O.=EMOTIONAL

OFFICIALS:RATIONALS

Officials build public support after an

alternative has been chosen.

(Educational efforts)

Dominated much more of the period

after WWII

NEOREALISTS

Internal factors rarely influence state

decisions either in crises or under normal

conditions.

P.O. notoriously fickle in national

security issues and responsive to elite

manipulations and world events.

Elites are expected either to ignore or to

educate them.

P.O. should affect F.P. because of democratic

norms, influencing possibly adventurous and

overambitious elites.

F.P. is the virtuous guide: “Only a free people

could hold their purpose and their honour steady

to a common end and prefer interest of mankind

to any narrow interest on their own” (Woodrow

Wilson).

Democratic leaders should discern and

implement the public’s will.

*P.O. affects F.P. formulation by limiting

extreme elite tendencies, providing policy

innovations, and leading the government to

select the policy the public prefers.

*In democracies: the elites fear of loosing public

support (political capital)

*However, in decisions that require quick action

P.O. might constrain the range of responses, as it

takes time to gather the opinion from the

population.

*Officials respond to P.O. in policies that

develop over a long period of time.

Domestic influences are an important

determinant of foreign policy behaviour:

domestic considerations affect perceptions,

the development of options and policy

choices, and the timing of international action

in both crises or ordinary circumstances.

(can influence: crisis initiation, crisis

escalation, the use of force,, international

bargaining, and broader strategic policy).

Trustee, Delegate, Realist or

Liberals’ theories might explain

accurately the influences of P.O., but,

they also depend on the individual

and decision context.

3 Processes may affect F.P.:

*P.O. can affect policymaking

through a decision maker’s

anticipation of the public’s future

reactions.

(when policy is announced, next

election)

Decision makers use their previous

experiences to draw a possible

public’s preferences when no

specific information about the P.O.

exists. Even with information

available this can occur.

*Images of the existing P.O. context

may also affect policy.

(P.O. attitudes,

culture=PERCEPTIONS)

*Indicators of public attitudes can

change perceptions: polling data,

letters, editorial opinion, views of

assessors). It is regarded by Foyle

(1999) as the least influential.

Marxism and Critical Theories.

Economical and political interests.

*State is a function of elite groups.

The mass media sustain the

inequality=>propagate the interest of

elites.

(Opinions manufactured).

*Commercial imperatives act over

controversial issues.

(state interests=business interests).

*common in liberal democratic

states=> promotion of capitalist and

liberal values.

*Western mainstream media

perpetuate an image of western

democracies as the model to follow.

*Global information is dominated by

powerful states and economic

interests.

*Humanitarian treatment of

catastrophes is superficial.

*Media and public opinion are

secondary and elites mould them.