Does (will) global environmental change accelerate immigration?

'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006

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Does (will) global Does (will) global environmental change environmental change

accelerate immigration?accelerate immigration?

Prof. Andrew MillingtonProf. Andrew Millington

Dept. of Geography, TAMUDept. of Geography, [email protected]@geog.tamu.edu

22'Migration, Immigration & Changing Bor'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006ach, Dec 1st 2006

Would you know an environmental migrant Would you know an environmental migrant if you saw one?if you saw one?


Environmental migrants and Environmental migrants and refugeesrefugees

175 million people live outside their country of birth 175 million people live outside their country of birth

10-11 million refugees from armed conflicts10-11 million refugees from armed conflicts

12-25 million refugees from natural disasters and famine12-25 million refugees from natural disasters and famine

Majority of environmental migrants/refugees have moved Majority of environmental migrants/refugees have moved since 1980since 1980

Cross-border migrants Cross-border migrants currently mainly social and economic opportunistscurrently mainly social and economic opportunists economic migrants fastest growing groupeconomic migrants fastest growing group

Internally displaced persons Internally displaced persons currently mainly environmental and political refugeescurrently mainly environmental and political refugees


Refugees and environmental Refugees and environmental refugeesrefugees

Conflicts and Disasters

Traditional Refugees:

Persecution, Human rights violations,

Repression, Conflict

Environmental Refugees:

Natural disasters,Environmentaldegradation

EnvironmentalRefugees:

Anthropogenic disasters


Refugees and environmental Refugees and environmental refugeesrefugees

Similarities between traditional and environmental Similarities between traditional and environmental refugeesrefugees

Forced nature of migrationForced nature of migration Need for material assistanceNeed for material assistance Need for permission to re-locateNeed for permission to re-locate

Debate raging at present:Debate raging at present: Should environmental migrants be treated, and have same status Should environmental migrants be treated, and have same status

as, traditional refugees as codified in International Law and as, traditional refugees as codified in International Law and guarded by the UN?guarded by the UN?


Defining environmental refugeesDefining environmental refugees

Originally identified and broadly defined by UN researcher El-Originally identified and broadly defined by UN researcher El-Hinnawai (1985). Hinnawai (1985).

““People who migrate from their usual residence due to changes in People who migrate from their usual residence due to changes in their ambient non-human environment” their ambient non-human environment” Diane BatesDiane Bates (2002) (2002)

INVOLUNTARYINVOLUNTARY COMPELLEDCOMPELLED VOLUNTARYVOLUNTARY

ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEEREFUGEE

ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL EMIGRANTEMIGRANT

MIGRANTMIGRANT


(Global) Environmental change(Global) Environmental change

Global environmental Global environmental changechange Systemic changeSystemic change

Climate changeClimate change Cumulative changeCumulative change

Deforestation, desertificationDeforestation, desertification

Regional and local Regional and local environmental changeenvironmental change Water pollutionWater pollution


Migrants from disastersMigrants from disasters

FOR MORE INFO... Link> Montserrat Juicy Geography

Rapid onsetRapid onset

Natural or technologicalNatural or technological


Migrants from expropriationMigrants from expropriation

FOR MORE INFO... Link>International Rivers Network

Rapid onsetRapid onset

Development or EcocideDevelopment or Ecocide


Migrants from deteriorationMigrants from deterioration

FOR MORE INFO... Link> UNEP GRID

Slow onsetSlow onset

Pollution or DepletionPollution or Depletion


Internal DisplacementInternal Displacement

FOR MORE INFO... Link> Population Reference Bureau

AfghanistanAfghanistan 200, 000200, 000 June 2005June 2005

AngolaAngola 91 00091 000 Aug 2005Aug 2005

Indonesia Indonesia (Aceh)(Aceh)

533 000533 000 Dec 2004Dec 2004

Sri LankaSri Lanka 800 000800 000 June 2005June 2005

SudanSudan 6 000 000 6 000 000 Mar 2005Mar 2005

Internally displaced persons - IDPsInternally displaced persons - IDPs


Earthquakes and IDPsEarthquakes and IDPs

FOR MORE INFO... Link> Population Reference Bureau

NumberNumber Total Total deathsdeaths

Total Total affectedaffected

(mills)(mills)

AfricaAfrica 6464 329329 1.81.8

AmericasAmericas 229229 195 740195 740 24.824.8

AsiaAsia 447447 1 302 1891 302 189 60.660.6

EuropeEurope 215215 346 801346 801 10.710.7

OceaniaOceania 3838 439439 0.090.09Earthquake data 1901-2005 (Pop Ref Bureau)Earthquake data 1901-2005 (Pop Ref Bureau)



Environmentally-IDPs in the USAEnvironmentally-IDPs in the USA

Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina ““In…14 days the hurricane scattered In…14 days the hurricane scattered

as many as 1 million evacuees as many as 1 million evacuees across the US…”across the US…”

““Many evacuees are putting down Many evacuees are putting down roots in new areas and saying they’ll roots in new areas and saying they’ll never return.” never return.”

“…“…the largest displacement of the largest displacement of Americans in 150 years…as if the Americans in 150 years…as if the entire Dust Bowl occurred in 14 entire Dust Bowl occurred in 14 days” days” Peter Grier, Christian Science Peter Grier, Christian Science Monitor, Sept 12 2005Monitor, Sept 12 2005


Environmentally-IDPs in the USAEnvironmentally-IDPs in the USA


International environmental International environmental refugees: Haitirefugees: Haiti

20% (1.3 million) of 20% (1.3 million) of population emigrated, population emigrated, 300 000 to USA300 000 to USAPolitical oppressionPolitical oppressionEnvironmental basisEnvironmental basis

High population growthHigh population growth 33% of land suitable for 33% of land suitable for

cultivated: 60% cultivatedcultivated: 60% cultivated 80% population chronically 80% population chronically

malnourishedmalnourished

Cost of Haitian migrants to Cost of Haitian migrants to Florida $250 millionFlorida $250 million17x USAID annual spent on 17x USAID annual spent on environmental safeguards environmental safeguards in entire Caribbeanin entire Caribbean


International environmental International environmental migration: historical contextsmigration: historical contexts


Migration gradientMigration gradient

Driven outright by Driven outright by environmental environmental pressurespressures

Voluntary Voluntary economic economic opportunistsopportunists

PovertyPoverty


Where are today’s 25 million Where are today’s 25 million environmental migrants?environmental migrants?

Africa – 16 millionAfrica – 16 million Sahel (5 mill), Horn and Sudan (4 mill)Sahel (5 mill), Horn and Sudan (4 mill)

China – 6 millionChina – 6 million

Mexico – 1 millionMexico – 1 million

135 million - threatened by severe desertification135 million - threatened by severe desertification

550 million – nations with chronic water shortages550 million – nations with chronic water shortages


……and tomorrow’s environmental and tomorrow’s environmental migrants?migrants?

37 million by 201037 million by 2010 Most in sub-Saharan AfricaMost in sub-Saharan Africa

Global changeGlobal change Drought – 50 millionDrought – 50 million Sea Level Rise – 162 million Sea Level Rise – 162 million

Bangladesh 26, Egypt 21, China 73, India 20, Small Island States 31Bangladesh 26, Egypt 21, China 73, India 20, Small Island States 31

180 million - threatened by severe desertification180 million - threatened by severe desertification

1 billion – nations with chronic water shortages1 billion – nations with chronic water shortages

FOR MORE INFO... Link>Tearfund ‘Feeling the Heat’


Tomorrow’s environmental migrants – Tomorrow’s environmental migrants – Tomorrow’s worldTomorrow’s world

Asian migrants to Europe Asian migrants to Europe and North America?and North America?

Caribbean and Latin Caribbean and Latin American migrants to American migrants to North America and North America and Europe?Europe?

Asian migrants to Asian migrants to Australia and NZ?Australia and NZ?

Internally displaced Internally displaced persons?persons?


Does (will) global environmental change Does (will) global environmental change accelerate immigration?accelerate immigration?

Does global environmental change accelerate Does global environmental change accelerate immigration?immigration?√ √ Majority of 25million environmental migrants since 1980 – 1995 Majority of 25million environmental migrants since 1980 – 1995

? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards

X Most of IDPs, not immigrantsX Most of IDPs, not immigrants

Will global environmental change accelerate Will global environmental change accelerate immigration?immigration?√ √ Environmental migrants projected to double by 2010 Environmental migrants projected to double by 2010

? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards

X Many still IDPs, but more will migrateX Many still IDPs, but more will migrate


Responsibilities and ResponsesResponsibilities and Responses

Analogies with the ‘polluter pays principle’Analogies with the ‘polluter pays principle’

Increase the legal scope of refugeeIncrease the legal scope of refugee

Better understanding of interplay of causes of Better understanding of interplay of causes of migrationmigration

Better targeting of aid moniesBetter targeting of aid monies

Recognition of the value of refugees in a Recognition of the value of refugees in a globalized economy globalized economy


Would you know an environmental migrant Would you know an environmental migrant if you saw one?if you saw one?

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Does (will) global environmental change accelerate immigration?