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Does Policy Uncertainty Matter?
Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University & NBER) based on research with Scott Baker (Kellogg) & Steve Davis (Chicago)
G20, April 16th 2015
Uncertainty has been in the media a lot
But not everyone agrees
Three Questions on Policy Uncertainty
1) Theory: why might policy uncertainty matter for growth?
2) Data: can we measure policy uncertainty?
3) Empirics: has policy uncertainty lowered growth since 2008?
Three key theory channels for uncertainty
1) Cost of capital: Tobin (1958) shows how risk raises borrowing
cost for firms and consumer, cutting investment and spending
2) Real options: Arrow (1959) & Bernanke (1983) highlight how
uncertainty cuts demand by making firms and consumers
cautious when mistakes are costly: they want to “wait & see”
3) Financial constraints: Recent papers like Gilchrist, Sim and
Zakrajsek (2010) focus on how uncertainty can exacerbate
financial constraints (e.g. firms hoard “dead cash”)
Further reading: “Fluctuations in uncertainty”, by Nicholas Bloom,
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2014
http://www.stanford.edu/~nbloom/JEP_Uncertainty.pdf
Three Questions – from Theory to Empirics
1) Theory: why might policy uncertainty matter for growth?
2) Data: how can we measure economic policy uncertainty
3) Empirics: has policy uncertainty lowered growth since 2008?
Uncertainty barometer
Uncertainty – including policy uncertainty - is hard
to measure because it is not directly observed
Unfortunately,
no “uncertainty
barometer” exits
One measure is the Economic Policy Uncertainty
(EPU) index from computer searches of newspapers
• For 10 major US papers get monthly counts of articles with:
E {economic or economy}, and
P {regulation or deficit or federal reserve or congress or legislation or white house}, and
U {uncertain or uncertainty}
• Divide the count for each month by the count of all articles
• Normalize and sum 10 papers to get the U.S monthly index
50
1
00
1
50
2
00
2
50
3
00
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Gulf
War I
9/11
Clinton
Election
Gulf
War II Bush
Election
Stimulus
Debate
Lehman
and TARP
Euro Crisis, and
Midterm Elections
Russian
Crisis/LTCM
Debt Ceiling
Debate
Black
Monday
Fis
cal C
liff
Shutd
ow
n
Po
licy U
ncert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
US News-based economic policy uncertainty index
Source: “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty” by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, all data at
www.policyuncertainty.com. Data normalized to 100 prior to 2010.
Which policy areas account for high US policy
uncertainty in 2008-2012? Articles point to fiscal
and healthcare policies (not monetary policy)
Source: “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty” by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, all data at
www.policyuncertainty.com. Data normalized to 100 prior to 2010.
Can run the US index back to 1900 with 6 papers, see
rises in: (i) the Great Depression, (ii) since the 1960s 1
00
2
00
3
00
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Po
licy U
ncert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
Versailles
conference
9/11 and
Gulf War II
Debt
Ceiling
OPEC II
Lehman
and TARP Great
Depression,
New Deal
and FDR
Truman-
Dewey
election
Great
Depression
Relapse Gulf
War I Black
Monday
Start of
WW I
OPEC I
Asian Fin.
Crisis
Watergate
Assassination
of McKinley
Gold
Standard Act
Berlin
Conference
McNary
Haughen
farm bill
Source: “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty” by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, all data at
www.policyuncertainty.com. Data normalized to 100 prior to 2010.
0
10
0
20
0
30
0
40
0
Po
licy U
ncert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
9/11
Papandreou calls
for referendum,
then resigns
Italy Rating
Cut
Lehman
Bros.
Greek Bailout
Request, Rating Cuts
Northern
Rock &
Ensuing
Financial
Turmoil
Treaty of
Accession/
Gulf War II
Nice Treaty
Referendum
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com. Based on 10 papers (El Pais, El Mundo, Corriere della Sera,
La Repubblica, Le Monde, Le Figaro, the Financial Times, Times, Handelsblatt, FAZ.)
Russian
Crisis/LTCM
French and Dutch Voters
Reject European Constitution
Ongoing
Eurozone
Stresses
European Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
UK Policy Uncertainty Index – note many of the
policy events are international (why G20 is helpful)
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com. Data from 2 UK newspapers (Times and Financial Times)
Po
licy U
ncert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
0
100
200
300
400
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Treaty of
Accession/
Gulf War II
Russian
Crisis/LTCM
Northern
Rock &
Global
Financial
Crisis
General
Election
Euro Crisis
US
Sh
utd
ow
n
Lehman
Bros.
9/11
0
10
0
20
0
30
0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
India Economic Policy Uncertainty Index In
dia
Based
Po
licy U
ncert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
Exchange
Rate
Fluctuations
Euro crisis and US
debt ceiling debate
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com. Data from 7 Indian newspapers (Economic Times, Times of
India, Hindustan Times, Hindu, Statesman, Indian Express, and Financial Express)
Congress Party wins
National Election
Bear
Stearns
Lehman Bros
India-US
Nuclear Deal Price
Hikes
US
Sh
utd
ow
n
0
10
0
20
0
30
0
40
0
China Economic Policy Uncertainty Index C
hin
a B
ased
Po
licy U
ncert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
9/11
Political Transition and new National
Congress
Rising Interest Rates
Inflation and Export Pressure
Eurozone Fears and Protectionism
China Stimulus
China Deflation and Deficit
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com. Data until August 2014. Based on newspaper articles from
the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
199210
199310
199410
199510
199610
199710
199810
199910
200010
200110
200210
200310
200410
200510
200610
200710
200810
200910
201010
201110
201210
201310
Orange
Revolution
in Ukraine
Duma
elections
and
ensuing
protests
Kizlyar hostage crisis;
PM Chubais resigns C
on
stitu
tio
nal
Crisis
Russian
financial
crisis
Acting PM
Gaidar
resigns
Russian
military
exits
Chechnya
Timoshenko
resigns;
Terror attack
in Nalchik
Parliament
dismissed
In Ukraine
Terror
attacks in
Nalchik &
Stavropol Putin
becomes
PM
Le
hm
an
Bro
the
rs F
ailu
re
Pu
tin
ele
ctio
n
Kiev
Euromaidan;
Crimea
accession
16
Russian Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (beta)
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com. Data from Kommersant daily newspaper (1992-2014)
Ru
ss
ia B
as
ed
Po
lic
y U
nc
ert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
Japanese Economic Policy Uncertainty (beta) Jap
an
ese P
olicy U
ncert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com. Based on newspaper articles from the Asahi and Yomiuri
daily newspapers.
0
50
100
150
200
250
New Prime Minister Kaifu;
Gulf
War
LDP wins fewer
than half
the seats in
Japan's Diet;
Electoral
Reform
LDP regains Prime Ministership
Collapse of
Yamaichi
Securities New Prime
Minister Obuchi
General Election
Prime Minister Mori steps down
Invasion of Iraq
General Election
BOJ Introduces Monetary Easing General
Election
Prime Minister Fukuda Resigns; Lehman Brothers Failure
New Prime Minister Noda
US
Shu
tdo
wn
Koizumi-Takenaka banking reforms
Abe resigns
Trying to extend this out to the full G20 – for
example, working on Australia, Brazil, Canada,
and South Korea
50
1
00
1
50
2
00
2
50
North Korean Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
Po
licy U
ncert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com. Data from 0 North Korean newspapers
But can we rely on newspapers search data?
20
A) Evaluation of Policy Uncertainty Index: Market Use
Market use suggests information in our policy uncertainty data
I) Numerous users including: Goldman Sachs, Citibank, JP
Morgan, Blackrock, Wells Fargo, IMF, Fed, ECB etc
II) This has led Bloomberg, FRED, Reuters and Haver to stream
our data for their financial and policy users
10
2
0
30
4
0
50
6
0
50
1
00
1
50
20
0
25
0
9/11
WorldCom
& Enron
Gulf
War II
Credit Crunch
Asian
crisis
Gulf
War I
Obama
Election,
Banking
Crisis
Debt
Ceiling
LTCM
default
B) Evaluation: comparison to stock volatility (e.g. VIX)
Correlation 1-month VIX and EPU index = 0.55
Correlation 10-year VIX synthetic and EPU index = 0.73
Large
interest
rate cuts
Clinton
election
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com
VIX
im
plie
d v
ola
tility
on
th
e S
&P
50
0 in
de
x (
red
)
Ec
on
om
ic P
olic
y U
nc
ert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
(B
lue
)
Fis
ca
l C
liff
Sh
utd
ow
n
C) Evaluation: Running Detailed Human Audits
10 undergraduates read ≈ 10,000 newspaper articles using a 63-page audit guide to code articles if they discuss “economic policy uncertainty”
23
Find humans and computers give similar results in
large samples (in fact both make mistakes)
Source: www.policyuncertainty.com
0
50
1
00
1
50
2
00
2
50
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Computer
Human
Po
lic
y U
nc
ert
ain
ty I
nd
ex
Three Questions – from Theory to Empirics
1) Theory: why might policy uncertainty matter for growth?
2) Data: how can we measure economic policy uncertainty
3) Empirics: has policy uncertainty lowered growth since 2008?
Evaluate the impact of policy uncertainty in 3 ways
1. Surveys
2. Firm-level analysis (firm panel regressions)
3. Macroeconomic analysis (VAR estimations)
1) Surveys: claim uncertainty has been a major drag
December 2012
International WEF survey evidence also highlights
uncertainty as a major drag – Global CEO survey
2) Firm-level analysis: Use econometric analysis to
see how firms respond to policy uncertainty
Yit = Fi + Pt + α*Expj*Govt + β*Expj*EPUt + εi,t
Firm stock
price volatility,
or investment
or hiring
Firm
fixed
effects
Period
fixed
effects
Firm government
exposure × government
expenditure
(1st moment effect)
Firm government
exposure × policy
uncertainty
(2nd moment effect)
i=firm, j=industry, t=quarter
Estimated firm by quarter 1996-2012, standard-errors clustered by j
Find: (A) firms with greater government exposure -
e.g. construction, defense and healthcare - have
higher stock volatility when policy uncertainty rises
Source: Baker, Bloom and Davis (2014), “Measuring policy uncertainty” www.policyuncertainty.com
Find: (B) firms with greater government exposure
have about 25% lower investment and hiring when
policy uncertainty rises – uncertainty cuts growth
Source: Baker, Bloom and Davis (2014), “Measuring policy uncertainty” www.policyuncertainty.com
3) Macro estimates: US data predicts the rise in
policy uncertainty seen from 2006 to 2008-2012 is
followed by a drop in output of about 1% to 1.5%
Ind
ustr
ial
Pro
du
cti
on
, (%
)
Months after the economics policy uncertainty shock
Em
plo
ym
en
t Im
pact,
(%
)
-1.5
-1-.5
0.5
1
0 6 12 18 24 30 36year
-.6-.4
-.20
.2
0 6 12 18 24 30 36year
-1.5
-1
-.
5
0
0 6 12 18 24 30 36
Months after the policy uncertainty shock
Ind
ustr
ial
Pro
du
cti
on
Im
pact
(% d
evia
tio
n)
Baseline (+ symbol)
Bivariate (EPU and
industrial production)
Six months of lags
Adding stock volatility Reverse bivariate (industrial
production & EPU)
Dropping stock-price
No country
or time FEs
We also examine our 12 country panel and find
similar 1% to 1.5% drops in output following the
2008-2012 increases in policy uncertainty
Conclusions
1. Economic theory has long emphasized the damaging effects
of uncertainty on investment, hiring and consumer spending
2. Policy uncertainty is an important and ‘controllable’ element
of uncertainty, and appears to have risen during 2008-2013
3. We estimate rising policy uncertainty may have cut output by
1%-1.5%, particularly in construction, defense & healthcare
4. This rising policy uncertainty comes from fiscal & regulatory
uncertainty – monetary policy uncertainty has been flat
Policy Implications – Three Strands
1. Monetary (Fiscal) Policy: should be predictable, transparent
and stabilizing to (continue to) reduce policy uncertainty
2. Financial Stability: supporting the financial system in 2008+
helped avoid a Great Depression sized surge in uncertainty
3. International Coordination: the G20 can promote international
policy stability, and reduce cross-country policy “tidal wash”
Data available at: www.policyuncertainty.com
Finally, note all the data and research is online
Does Policy Uncertainty Matter?
Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University & NBER) based on research with Scott Baker (Kellogg) & Steve Davis (Chicago)
G20, April 16th 2015
