Do you know what it takes to manage

global change wisely?

?!

EARTH System

Analysis

Why do we need Earth System Analysis ?!

[…] there is no previous analogue for the current operation of the Earth System […]

Modus Operandi

terrestrial ecosystems

marine ecosystems

human dimensions

atmosphere

terrestrial ecosystems

marine ecosystems

human dimensions

atmosphere

terrestrial ecosystems

marine ecosystems

human dimensions

atmosphere

terrestrial ecosystems

marine ecosystems

human dimensions

atmosphere

Do we know how good old earth is working now?

E S ATo complex for a single mind, a single

discipline, a single nation, a single interest.

Thus…

…inter-disciplinary

…inter-nationational

…inter-objective (balance of interests)

ESA ESM

Limits to Growth – WORLD3• World3 – complex but basically simple

• Causal relationships between the earth‘s biological systems and human (economic) development

• It‘s all about the development of stocks, such as…

…human population…industrial capital…environmental pollution…natural resources

WORLD3 is not about absolute figures…

…it‘s about trends, causal relationships, feedback loops

World3 assumes…

…unlimited Growth of…

…population

…capital

until the physical limit is reached

World3 Central question:

What happens now?!

Population growth 1

time

Earth‘s ecological capacity

world population

sour

ce:

limits

to

grow

th –

30y

upd

ate

Population growth 2

Earth‘s ecological capacity

world population

time sour

ce:

limits

to

grow

th –

30y

upd

ate

Population growth 3

Earth‘s ecological capacity

world population

time

we are here

sour

ce:

limits

to

grow

th –

30y

upd

ate

Population growth 4

Earth‘s ecological capacity

world population

time

we are here

sour

ce:

limits

to

grow

th –

30y

upd

ate

source: limits to growth – 30y update

Safe landing

?!

source: limits to growth – 30y update

Has anything changed (because of WORLD3) ?!

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

IGBP Objective

• To describe and understand Earth System dynamics

• focusing on the interactive biological, chemical and physical processes

• the changes that are occurring in these dynamics

• and the role of human activities in these changes

IGBP II Structure

sour

ce:

http

://w

ww

.igbp

.net

/pag

e.ph

p?pi

d=18

4

Earth System Science Partnership

Health

START

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

sour

ce:

http

://w

ww

.igbp

.net

/pag

e.ph

p?pi

d=18

4

Integrated Regional Studies

•assess the influence of regional processes on Earth System functioning (and vice-versa)

•be integrative (natural and social sciences, all components of the Earth System, planning to synthesis)

•contribute sound scientific understanding in support of sustainable development in the region

•be scientifically-driven by scientists in the region, with global collaboration

Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA)

•80 research groups - 600 scientists

•How does Amazonia function as a regional entity (e.g., natural cycles of water, energy, aerosols, carbon, nutrient and trace-gases)?

•How will changes in land use and climate affect the biological, chemical and physical functioning of Amazonia, including its sustainability and influence on global climate?

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

Take home message

Earth system analyses/models show trends, not figures.

ESA can be used as an early warning system

ESM should be used as a political tool to design rough national and international strategies for decades to come

IRS should be used a regional planning tool for sustainable development wherever available

For more information on ESA, ESM and global change research, visit:

http://www.igbp.net

Comments for Lars Schmidt from Manfred Stock

1. To be finished .....