Do existing social protection programs address the emerging socioecological

vulnerability in Bangladesh?

Iftekhar HaquePhD Candidate,

School of of International Development and Global Studies, University of Ottawa, Canada

Paper presented at the 3rd Gobeshona Conference for Research on Climate Change in Bangladesh

ICCCAD, IUB, 10 January 2017.

1

2

Background: Theories

• Linkages between social protection and Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience (Davies et al, 2008; Newsham et al, 2011; Heltberg, 2011)

• Political economy of redistribution/allocation (Niskanen, 1971; Tridimas, 2001; Beseley et al, 2012)

Social protection programs in Bangladesh

• Around 2% of the GDP

• Around 13% of the total public expenditure in 2016-17

• Allocated budget (2016-17):

45,230 Crore BDT/ 5.79 billion USD

3

Social protection programs in Bangladesh

4

• Cash Transfer Programs

• Food Security Programs

• Social empowerment programs

1631, 54%1122, 38%

249,

8%

Allocation of Social Protection Programs in

FY15 (in million USD)

Cash Transfer Programs Food security program Social empowerment program

5

Food assisted social protection programs to reduce environmental vulnerabilities

• Open Market Sales (OMS)• Vulnerable Group Development (VGD)• Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF)• Test Relief (TR)• Gratuitous Relief (GR)• Food Assistance in CTG-Hill Tracts Area• Food For Work (FFW)• Employment Generation Programme for the Poor

6

Source: Coirolo et al (2013) calculated from HIES-2010

Eligibility of Social Protection Program beneficiaries

Methods

• Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) for each district

Hahn et al (2009) index was used to construct LVI

IFPRI’s Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS)-2011 was used to construct the index.

Components of LVI:Socio-Demographic Profile

Livelihood Strategies

Food

Social Networks Water

Health Natural Disaster and climate variables

𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥𝑠𝑑 =𝑆𝑑−𝑆𝑚𝑖𝑛

𝑆𝑚𝑎𝑥 −𝑆𝑚𝑖𝑛

Methods

• Districtwise allocation of food security programs

Allocation of total food grain for each district was divided by the number of poor.

Food Allocation data : Food Planning and Monitoring Unit, Government of Bangladesh

Poverty data: National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (2010)

Methods

• Regression Model to identify the determinants of allocation.

9

Map 1: Districtwise Livelihood Vulnerability Map

Map 2: Districtwise Allocation of Food grain (KG per capita poor)

LVI Map Food Allocation Map

Regression Analysis

• Dependent Variable: Allocation for each district in Kilogram

• Independent variables:Socio-economic: Poverty, Unemployment and LVIGeographic: Distance from Capital and size of the

districtPolitical: Number of Ministers, Years of

experience of MPs, and number of MPs in Central Committees f the concerned political parties

Demographic: Population

13

14

VARIABLES ln_allocation

LVI Score -0.689

(0.933)

Log_number of Poor -0.0189

(0.0930)

Unemployment Rate -0.00431

(0.00783)

ln_distance from Capita; -0.0161

(0.0794)

d_lagging district 0.0480

(0.155)

ln_area in sqkm 0.277**

(0.122)

ln_population 0.561***

(0.157)

Number of Minister -0.0349

(0.0669)

years of experience of MPs 0.0558

(0.0708)

Number of Central Leaders 0.0346

(0.125)

Constant 7.483***

(1.919)

Observations 64

R-squared 0.650

Prob>F 0.000

Standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Explaining the targeting failure at individual level

16