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Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment
Strengthening capacity
to sustainably manage
ecosystems for
human well-being
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MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT PROJECTASSESSMENT PROJECT
River Basin Sub-global River Basin Sub-global AssessmentsAssessments
Sherry Heileman & Dave MacDevette
UNEP - Division of Early Warning and Assessment
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MILLENNIUM ASSESSMENT MILLENNIUM ASSESSMENT BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND
• A 4-year (2001-2005) international assessment of current and future ability of ecosystems to meet human needs for goods and services
• Under the auspices of the CBD, the CCD, the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, and other partners
• Funded by the GEF, UNF, Packard Foundation, World Bank, Government of Norway, and UNEP
• In-kind contributions from other UN Agencies, EC, and USA
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OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES
1. to meet needs of users for peer reviewed, policy relevant scientific information on ecosystems, the goods and services they provide, and options for meeting policy goals
2. to build capacity at all scales to undertake integrated ecosystem assessments and to act on their findings
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THE MILLENNIUM ASSESSMENTTHE MILLENNIUM ASSESSMENTA demand-driven assessment
USERS
• Ecosystem-related conventions
- Convention to Combat Desertification
- Convention on Biological Diversity
- Ramsar Convention on Wetlands• National (sub-national) government• Local Communities • Civil society• Private sector
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The MA will
•Assess how changes to ecosystems will affect their ability to meet human demands for goods and services
•Examine economic, public health, and social consequences of changes
•Address impacts of multiple drivers
•Seek to provide information that can be used to better weigh trade-offs among ecosystem goods and services through integrated assessments
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Driver
Response
HumanImpact
MA will address impacts of multiple drivers
IPCC
Climate Change
Energy Sector Biodiversity Food
Supply Water
Health Economics Social
Ecosystems
Health Economics Social
ClimateChange
Land CoverChange
BiodiversityLoss
NutrientLoading Etc.
MA
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DESIGNDESIGN
The MA is a “multiscale” assessment (local to global spatial scales)
At global level- • assessment of ecosystem state and trends• development of scenarios• exploration of response options
At subglobal level-• assessments will be conducted at local,
national, and regional scales
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UNITS OF ANALYSISUNITS OF ANALYSIS
The MA uses the ecosystem as one unit of analysis
Ecosystem: A system formed by the interaction of a community of organisms with their environment
- e.g. lake, river basin, politically defined region
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RIVER BASIN ASSESSMENTSRIVER BASIN ASSESSMENTS
OBJECTIVES
• Provide information for decision-making
• Build capacity for integrated ecosystem assessments
• Develop and test methodology for integrated multiscale ecosystem assessments
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RIVER BASIN ASSESSMENTSRIVER BASIN ASSESSMENTS
The Lancang-Mekong river basin
Norway – the Glomma
Sweden – a semi-urban watershed
Switzerland, Germany, Austria - Lake
Constance Drainage Basin
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SOUTHERN AFRICA RIVER BASIN SOUTHERN AFRICA RIVER BASIN ASSESSMENTSASSESSMENTS
Multinational river basins-
Gariep river basin Zambezi river basin Okavango river basin
An experiment-Assessments conducted at local, river basin and
regional scales, with integration across scales
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LOCATION OF RIVER BASINSLOCATION OF RIVER BASINS
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THE GARIEP RIVER BASINTHE GARIEP RIVER BASIN
Objective
To assess the current and future impacts of human activities on the capacity of ecosystems within this catchment to meet present and future needs
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THE GARIEP RIVER BASINTHE GARIEP RIVER BASIN
Activities
1. Development of indicators (at each scale)
Driving forces (e.g. land use changes, climate change)
Response (e.g. vegetation cover, water quality)
State (e.g. % arable land/crop type, % habitat loss)
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THE GARIEP RIVER BASINTHE GARIEP RIVER BASIN
Activities
2. Status quo assessment consolidation of all indicators into a single, consolidated view of ecosystem health and resilience
3. Scenario development (economic & social decline, rampant economic growth, sustainable development)
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THE GARIEP RIVER BASINTHE GARIEP RIVER BASIN
Activities
4. Software and report generation CD-based dynamic system model for
scenario exploration by decision-makers
Scientific and popular reports
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THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASINTHE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
Objectives
1. Characterize the regional ecosystems and assess the condition of goods and services in the countries of the Zambezi catchment.
2. Define scenarios of future state and major drivers of change at catchment and subcatchment levels
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THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASINTHE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
Assessment will include
1. Condition/state (land cover, forest and soil carbon, water supply & quality, climate data & characteristics)
2. Pressures (on major land cover types & uses, forcing factors, population projections)
3. Scenarios of major drivers of change4. Impacts of land use change5. Responses and policy options (with stakeholder
groups)
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THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASINTHE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
Activities
1. Map land use and cover to give 1990 and 2000 baselines
2. Define major drivers of environmental change at catchment and subcatchment levels
Identify regional level ecosystem contributions to livelihood systems
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THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASINTHE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
Activities
Analyze the interrelationships between the ecological, climate and socio-economic systems in the basin, including adverse impacts of land degradation and climatic extremes (through integrated assessment and modeling)
Build capacities of southern African individuals and organizations in ecosystem assessments
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THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASINTHE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
Outputs
Near real-time state of land use and land cover Provision of integrated information for all
countries A dynamic representation of the
interrelationships between different factors Data and insights into regional connectivity in
pressures and impacts One stop shopping for data on broad suite of
variables
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DATA MANAGEMENTDATA MANAGEMENT
The model for the Southern Africa data management system is the Safari 2000 data and information system. It consists of three elements:
A data sharing agreement between project
participants
A commitment to provide the regional facilitator with metadata
A mechanism for post project data archive and dissemination
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CONTACTS CONTACTS
Gariep basinProf. Albert S. van JaarsveldCentre for Environmental Studies University of PretoriaSouth [email protected]
Zambezi basinDr. Paul V. DesankerDepart of Environmental Science, University of Virginia, 104 Clark Hall, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA
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MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENTASSESSMENT
WEBSITE
www.millenniumassessment.org
