Disease-driven dynamics of evolutionary rescue from a game theoretic perspective Assumptions Continuous, direct disease transmission Recovery confers immunity Uniform susceptibility across life history No vertical transmission 1 National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, 2 University of Florida, 3 Tufts University, 4 Colorado College, 5 University of Tennessee Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Brandon Grandison 1,2 , Hannah Yin 1,3 , Ana Kilgore 1,4 , Jing Jiao 1 , & Nina Fefferman 1,5 OBJECTIVE Integrate epidemiology with game theory to find conditions and time scales for evolutionary rescue Acknowledgements This work was conducted with funding from the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, an Institute sponsored by the National Science Foundation through NSF Award #DBI-1300426, with additional support from National Security Agency and The University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Introduced Pathogen How might hosts exhibit evolutionary rescue? Disease dynamics affects breeding in the game that periodically replenishes susceptible population ASSUMPTIONS • Continuous, direct disease transmission • Recovery confers immunity • Uniform susceptibility across life history • No vertical transmission Disease Epidemic Evolutionary Game CONCLUSIONS 1. Evolutionary rescue can occur given our relative payoffs and selected parameters 2. How well a disease persists impacts whether evolutionary rescue can occur and its time scale FUTURE WORK • Bifurcation analysis to predict regime shifts • Add disease vectors, life history, and dynamic carrying capacity to test effects of coevolution and climate change • Add intermittent outbreaks, predator-prey dynamics, genotypic strategies, and gene flow SELECTED REFERENCES Carlson et al. (2014) Evolutionary rescue in a changing world. Trends in Ecol Evol 9: 521-530 Keeling MJ, Rohani P (2008) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton Univ Press, NJ. Boots et al. (2009) The role of ecological feedbacks in the evolution of host defence: what does theory tell us? Phil Trans R Soc B 364: 27-36 ASSUMPTIONS • Discrete, symmetric, simultaneous games • Homogeneous, well- mixed population • No intermediate phenotypes and mutations • Iteroparous hosts SUSCEPTIBLE, INFECTED, RECOVERED FRAMEWORK μ: Death rate ⍺: Birth rate ꞵ: Transmission rate : Recovery rate wt: Wild type mt: Mutant -: Noninfected +: Infected Preliminary Report Absolute Fitness ‘Rescue’ via adaptive evolution acting on mutation and standing genetic variation αwt- αmt- αwt+ αmt+ RELATIVE PAYOFFS: α wt- > α mt− > α mt+ > α wt+ Results In the presence of a highly virulent disease, there exists the possibility for a population with biologically plausible parameters to undergo evolutionary rescue. Wild Type Recovers Slightly Faster With Epidemic

Disease-driven dynamics of evolutionary rescue …Keeling MJ, RohaniP (2008) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton Univ Press, NJ. Boots et al. (2009) The role

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Page 1: Disease-driven dynamics of evolutionary rescue …Keeling MJ, RohaniP (2008) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton Univ Press, NJ. Boots et al. (2009) The role

Disease-driven dynamics of evolutionary rescue from a game theoretic perspective

AssumptionsContinuous, direct disease transmissionRecovery confers immunityUniform susceptibility across life historyNo vertical transmission

1National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, 2University of Florida, 3Tufts University, 4Colorado College, 5University of Tennessee Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology

Brandon Grandison1,2, Hannah Yin1,3, Ana Kilgore1,4, Jing Jiao1, & Nina Fefferman1,5

OBJECTIVEIntegrate epidemiology with game theory to find

conditions and time scales for evolutionary rescue

AcknowledgementsThis work was conducted with funding from the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, an Institute sponsored by the National Science

Foundation through NSF Award #DBI-1300426, with additional support from National Security Agency and The University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

Introduced Pathogen

How might hosts exhibit evolutionary rescue?

Disease dynamics affects breeding in the

game that periodically replenishes susceptible population

ASSUMPTIONS• Continuous, direct disease transmission• Recovery confers immunity• Uniform susceptibility across life history• No vertical transmission

Disease Epidemic Evolutionary Game

CONCLUSIONS1. Evolutionary rescue can occur given our relative payoffs and selected parameters2. How well a disease persists impacts whether evolutionary rescue can occur and its time scale

FUTURE WORK• Bifurcation analysis to predict regime shifts• Add disease vectors, life history, and dynamic carrying capacity to test effects of coevolution and climate change• Add intermittent outbreaks, predator-prey dynamics, genotypic strategies, and gene flow

SELECTED REFERENCESCarlson et al. (2014) Evolutionary rescue in a changing world. Trends in Ecol Evol 9: 521-530Keeling MJ, Rohani P (2008) Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton Univ Press, NJ.Boots et al. (2009) The role of ecological feedbacks in the evolution of host defence: what does theory tell us? Phil Trans R Soc B 364: 27-36

ASSUMPTIONS• Discrete, symmetric,

simultaneous games• Homogeneous, well-

mixed population• No intermediate

phenotypes and mutations

• Iteroparous hosts

SUSCEPTIBLE, INFECTED, RECOVERED FRAMEWORK

μ: Death rate⍺: Birth rateꞵ: Transmission rate𝛾: Recovery ratewt: Wild typemt: Mutant- : Noninfected+: Infected

Preliminary Report

Absolute Fitness

‘Rescue’ via adaptive evolution acting on mutation and standing genetic variation

αwt- αmt-

αwt+ αmt+