Disaster by Management:Disaster by Management:International Drug Cartels and International Drug Cartels and

the North State National Forest Landsthe North State National Forest Lands

Eugenie RovaiEugenie Rovai, CSU Chico, CSU Chico

Christine M. RodrigueChristine M. Rodrigue, CSU Long Beach, CSU Long Beachwith the assistance ofwith the assistance of

Janna WaligorskiJanna Waligorski, CSU Chico, CSU Chico

National Social Science AssociationNational Social Science Association

October 2007October 2007

Disaster by Management: Previous WorkDisaster by Management: Previous Work

NASA and the NASA and the Columbia accidentColumbia accident

FBI and 9/11FBI and 9/11 FEMA and KatrinaFEMA and Katrina

Disaster by Management: OverviewDisaster by Management: Overview

Disaster can result from the interaction of dangerous Disaster can result from the interaction of dangerous situations and institutional structuressituations and institutional structures Risk assessment messages are diluted and distorted as they Risk assessment messages are diluted and distorted as they

move up a managerial chain of command (telephone game)move up a managerial chain of command (telephone game)

They compete with other concerns at each level, which may They compete with other concerns at each level, which may seem more immediate and compelling to managersseem more immediate and compelling to managers

The structure of the institution affects message dilution: The structure of the institution affects message dilution: Each layer in a bureaucracy is an additional message filterEach layer in a bureaucracy is an additional message filter

““Getting away” with risky situations not turning into actual Getting away” with risky situations not turning into actual disasters (yet) can normalize anomaly, creating a blind spot disasters (yet) can normalize anomaly, creating a blind spot

Disaster by Management: ElementsDisaster by Management: Elements

Managers’ dilemma: Type I and Type II errorsManagers’ dilemma: Type I and Type II errors Risk messages from below contain uncertaintiesRisk messages from below contain uncertainties How does a manager balance uncertain risks and costs?How does a manager balance uncertain risks and costs?

Overreacting to a danger incurs direct and opportunity costs Overreacting to a danger incurs direct and opportunity costs Underestimating a serious danger to save resources can kill or injure Underestimating a serious danger to save resources can kill or injure

people and destroy propertypeople and destroy property

De minimisDe minimis principle principle versusversus the precautionary principle the precautionary principle How does the manager’s How does the manager’s managermanager balance these? balance these?

Disaster by Management: ElementsDisaster by Management: Elements

Managerial contextManagerial context ““Managerialism” – belief that private sector management Managerialism” – belief that private sector management

practices can improve cost efficiency in public sectorpractices can improve cost efficiency in public sector Cost pressures bias managers toward Cost pressures bias managers toward de minimisde minimis principles, principles,

dulling the urgency of risk messagesdulling the urgency of risk messages Normal accident theoryNormal accident theory

Accidents are inevitable in large, complex systems and in Accidents are inevitable in large, complex systems and in large, complex organizational structureslarge, complex organizational structures

Once disaster begins, events cascade in unpredictable ways Once disaster begins, events cascade in unpredictable ways and at speeds too great for humans to processand at speeds too great for humans to process

Disaster by Management: ElementsDisaster by Management: Elements

Institutional organizationInstitutional organization Multiple chains of command (functional or Multiple chains of command (functional or

institutional)institutional) Hierarchy can create timidity in pushing a risk message: Hierarchy can create timidity in pushing a risk message:

Risk assessment ranks lower than risk managementRisk assessment ranks lower than risk management ““Firewalls” between “stovepipes” may lose messagesFirewalls” between “stovepipes” may lose messages

Geographical organizationGeographical organization Spatiality implies hierarchy: HQ Spatiality implies hierarchy: HQ vs.vs. district offices district offices Messages originating in local or regional offices may be Messages originating in local or regional offices may be

weakened by lower status of their geographical originweakened by lower status of their geographical origin

Disaster by Management: OutcomesDisaster by Management: Outcomes

Local staff may be aware of a dangerLocal staff may be aware of a danger They may be unsure whom to notifyThey may be unsure whom to notify They may be reluctant to argue with a distracted superiorThey may be reluctant to argue with a distracted superior

Managers have a wide array of concernsManagers have a wide array of concerns Risk messages diluted among these other concernsRisk messages diluted among these other concerns Dilution greater the more levels there are Dilution greater the more levels there are Managers may have to prefer Managers may have to prefer de minimisde minimis over precautionary over precautionary

approaches because of cost (and ideological) constraintsapproaches because of cost (and ideological) constraints Upshot: Risk messages in bureaucracies may not Upshot: Risk messages in bureaucracies may not

trigger effective action until major tragedy strikestrigger effective action until major tragedy strikes

Disaster by Management: ProspectsDisaster by Management: Prospects

Is a potential “disaster by management” unfolding in the Is a potential “disaster by management” unfolding in the remote mountains of California?remote mountains of California?

International drug cartels respond to more border securityInternational drug cartels respond to more border security Large wilderness marijuana farms in National Forests and Parks Large wilderness marijuana farms in National Forests and Parks The cartels are violent, and their crews are heavily armedThe cartels are violent, and their crews are heavily armed

Consequences:Consequences: Confrontation between growers and backpackers, campers, Confrontation between growers and backpackers, campers,

hikers, riders, hunters, and fishers a growing dangerhikers, riders, hunters, and fishers a growing danger Significant environmental damage to groundwater, surface Significant environmental damage to groundwater, surface

water, slope stability, vegetation, and wildlife habitatwater, slope stability, vegetation, and wildlife habitat

2006 Plant Seizures in National Forests

Source: http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/shastatrinity/

Shift in Location to Public Lands

Source: http://caag.state.ca.us

Trends in Garden Size on Public Lands in Northern California

Compiled from articles in several newspapers, NPR, and interviews, 1993-2007

Whiskeytown National Recreation AreaWhiskeytown National Recreation Area

36 miles of shoreline 750 plant species 42,497 acres of land 3,200 acre lake 160 bird species 62 mammal species 8 (at least) marijuana gardens

raided in the past year 1,133,561 plants seized in

2006 (Shasta-Trinity NF)

Jurisdictions in Jurisdictions in Study AreaStudy Area

Whiskeytown-Shasta-Whiskeytown-Shasta-Trinity National Trinity National Recreation AreaRecreation Area U.S. Forest Service U.S. Forest Service

administers Shasta and administers Shasta and Trinity unitsTrinity units

National Park Service National Park Service administers Whiskeytown administers Whiskeytown UnitUnit

A Selection of Recent A Selection of Recent Park Closures and ShootingsPark Closures and Shootings

September 11, 2007 -- San Bernardino County Sheriff’s deputies and U.S. Forest Service personnel get into gunfight with three armed growers near Lytle Creek, killing one of them

August 31, 2007 -- A significant  portion of Whiskeytown NRA closes for visitor safety due to the possibility that a grower armed with a shotgun is at large. 

August 7, 2001 -- Sequoia National Park -- Roads closed to traffic due to gun shots heard during a garden raid

     

Drugs, Seeds, and BulletsDrugs, Seeds, and Bullets

Armed crews live with the plants for monthsArmed crews live with the plants for months Undocumented labor force brought in by cartels, left in Undocumented labor force brought in by cartels, left in

isolation, and provisioned periodically from burlap bags left isolation, and provisioned periodically from burlap bags left at pre-arranged pickup pointsat pre-arranged pickup points

Source: redding.com

Environmental Damage: PVC, Trash, Environmental Damage: PVC, Trash, Chemicals, LeadChemicals, Lead

Source: redding.com

Water Flow Disruption and ContaminationWater Flow Disruption and Contamination Diversions: channels, pipes, dams, poolsDiversions: channels, pipes, dams, pools Terracing of steep slopes and trail buildingTerracing of steep slopes and trail building Human waste and chemicalsHuman waste and chemicals Results: Results:

Chemical pollution downstreamChemical pollution downstream Fish kills downstreamFish kills downstream Slope instability/erosionSlope instability/erosion Aggradation/turbidity downstreamAggradation/turbidity downstream

Source: redding.com

Impacts on Vegetation and WildlifeImpacts on Vegetation and Wildlife Introduction of invasive exotic species on shoes and soilIntroduction of invasive exotic species on shoes and soil Killing and trimming of native trees for more lightKilling and trimming of native trees for more light Poaching of bears and deer for food, safety, recreationPoaching of bears and deer for food, safety, recreation

Source: B. Alberti, NPS

Cultural EvidenceCultural Evidence International drug cartels, largely from MexicoInternational drug cartels, largely from Mexico Smuggling labor instead of bulky marijuanaSmuggling labor instead of bulky marijuana Periodic provisioning mostly from local Wal-Marts, Periodic provisioning mostly from local Wal-Marts,

Costcos: plastic bags, Gatorade, Marlboro, Spam, Costcos: plastic bags, Gatorade, Marlboro, Spam, Budweiser, Hostess Cupcakes, …Budweiser, Hostess Cupcakes, …

Shrines to San Judas Tadeo, patron saint of difficult Shrines to San Judas Tadeo, patron saint of difficult and desperate situationsand desperate situations

Source: redding.com, fresnobeehive.com,& freewebs.com/sanjudastadeo

Plants Being Processed on SitePlants Being Processed on Site Laborers paid when crop collectedLaborers paid when crop collected September and October see a ramping up of September and October see a ramping up of

weaponry as the cartels come in to collect the weaponry as the cartels come in to collect the harvested and processed crop and the workersharvested and processed crop and the workers

Source: redding.com

Plants and Camps CamouflagedPlants and Camps Camouflaged

Remote Sensing: Remote Sensing: Cutting through the Cutting through the Camouflage?Camouflage?

Rarely explored and little Rarely explored and little applied for cost-effective applied for cost-effective detectiondetection

Hyperspectral imaging can Hyperspectral imaging can pick out:pick out: MarijuanaMarijuana IrrigationIrrigation DisturbanceDisturbance

Source: US Department of Justice

Source: US Geological Survey

Ad hocAd hoc “Management” at the Local Level “Management” at the Local Level

Source: redding.com

Disaster by Management? DiscussionDisaster by Management? Discussion

Competing chains of command: Law enforcement won’t share information with US Forest

Service and National Park Service (concern is tipping hand to cartels)

Impediment to effective land management: prescribed burning, habitat restoration, public education activities

USFS or NPS report gardens to law enforcement, which then stops all FS and PS activities, wiping out pre-planning and wasting resources

Disaster by Management? DiscussionDisaster by Management? Discussion

Stovepiping of information: Preventing predictive modelling by researchers using remote

sensing and GIS that would benefit both law enforcement and land management

Puts public at risk, an ironic outcome Concern for not tipping off cartels allows cartels to continue using

areas of high public interest and use Without the FS and PS knowing about the cartels’ activities, they

can’t target warnings to the public

Disaster by Management? DiscussionDisaster by Management? Discussion

Dilution of information: There is persistent reportage Local law enforcement and local districts of the FS and PS

are dealing with it, if at cross-purposes, by reassignment of their activities within their budgetary and staffing constraints

Federal entities express awareness (e.g., White House), but little concerted activity

Little public outcry and, so, other concerns at all levels have hindered effective response

Tragedies do occur, but these deaths and injuries are in small numbers not likely to amplify public concern and political response (analogy: car deaths versus plane crash deaths)

Disaster by Management? ConclusionDisaster by Management? Conclusion

The public is in danger, as are its common resources There is potential for the kinds of drug violence seen in parts of

Colombia and Mexico Environmental damage is serious, sustained, and expanding in

magnitude on our public lands The cartels’ geography is expanding to the north and east: This

is quickly becoming a national problem Delaying a unified national response may result in the problem

scaling beyond any possibility of management

This and related papers can be accessed at:http://www.csulb.edu/~rodrigue/research.html#disbymgt

For More InformationFor More Informationhttp://www.csulb.edu/~rodrigue/research.html

C.M. Rodrigue. 2006. Katrina/Rita and risk communication within FEMA. Paper presented to the Association of American Geographers, Chicago (March).

http://ag.ca.gov/bne/camp.php Office of the Attorney General, State of California, Department of Justice, Bureau of Narcotic Enforcment.

2007. Campaign Against Marijuana Planting (CAMP).

http://www.usdoj.gov/ndic/pubs10/10402/Department of Justice, National Drug Intelligence Center. 2005. Marijuana and methamphetamine trafficking on

Federal lands threat assessment. Remote Sensing of Environment 64: 192-201.

http://www.fs.fed.us/congress/108/house/oversight/gaffrey/101003.htmlGaffey, Art (Forest Supervisor, Sequoia National Forest). 2003. Statement before the US House of

Representatives.

http://www.sciencedirect.comDaughtry, C. and Walthall, C. 1998. Spectral discrimination of Cannabis sativa L. leaves and canopies. Remote

Sensing of Environment 64: 192-201.

http://web.redding.com/specials/Hidden_Harvest/Redding Record Searchlight. 2006. Hidden harvest. Special series of stories on marijuana farming in

California’s North State.

http://www.surfaceoptics.comSurface Optics Corporation. 2007. Hyperspectral imaging, hyperspectral applications, marijuana/cannabis

detection.

erovai@csuchico.edu, rodrigue@csulb.edu, jwaligorski@csuchico.edu