Direction on Guidelines Savings Definition Path: CONTINUED

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and Measure Interaction

Regional Technical ForumFebruary 19, 2014

2

January RTF MeetingPresentation

• Decision made on– Current Practice Baseline– Pre-Conditions Baseline

• Decision to postpone to February the discussion of RUL and Measure Life– Members asked to send alternate language, or

concerns to staff.

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Input Received Since January Meeting• From Staff– Edited “vote” on Measure

Interactions• Now “General Population

Characteristics” a “Yes****” for Lifetime Savings and First-year Savings. (previously a “No”)– If program participants match

general population

– Modified Proposed Motion Language

• From Others– …

1. Lifetime Savings

2. First-year savings

3. Observable Data

Council's Plan Yes No YesToday's Market Yes* Yes* YesForecasted Market Yes Yes NoToday's Conditions Yes* Yes* YesForecasted Condtions Yes Yes NoRUL = EUL No Yes NoRUL = EUL, with exceptions ** Yes NoSimple rule, e.g., RUL = 1/3 EUL No Yes NoSimple rule, with exceptions ** Yes NoForecast average RUL Yes Yes No***Remove Pre-Condition Baseline No No NoOnly Measure Identifiers Yes Yes YesFull Package No No NoProgram evaluation findings Yes Yes YesGeneral population characteristics Yes**** Yes**** Yes

*

**

***

**** If program participants match general population.

This option requires the use of qualitative data (or quantitative, if available). This could significantly improve the reliability of the estimate versus the other options.

Baseline for Current Practice

Remaining Useful Life

Baseline for Pre-Conditions

Measure Interactions

IndicatorPart Option

If sunset date is adjusted downward for quickly moving markets, it's close to representing the program's effect.

Depends on exceptions

+: Remember that “Option 3”, which was approved late last year, was a method to prorate “last measure in” savings to avoid under-counting (or over-counting) total savings.

(Ex: Option 3+)

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Measure Interactions

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Measure InteractionsProposal: “To the extent practical, measure identifiers should be used to account for significant measure interaction. For example, the identifier ‘heating system type’ could be used to account for the interactions between envelope improvements and heat pumps.

When measure identifiers are not sufficient to account for all significant interactions, measure savings should be estimated using data expected by the RTF to represent program participants during the sunset period. These data should describe the interactive measures present when each measure was installed, and which interactive measures were installed simultaneously. Data collected directly from a sample of recent program participants is likely to serve these needs if the characteristics of the program participants are not expected to be changing quickly. For measures where interactive measures are not expected to be installed simultaneously, general population characteristics or characteristics of eligible sites may be judged to sufficiently represent program participants.

The methods used to deal with measure interaction should be documented in the summary sheet.”

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“Significant”

• “Interaction is significant if the RTF determines that it is likely to account for more than 10%* of the measure savings. ”

• What tools would the RTF like to use to determine “significance”?

• What is the appropriate level of effort?

* Staff has interpreted this to mean +/- 10% (not +/- 5%).

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Proposed Significance Test Procedure

1. Identify Measure2. Identify all possible Interactive Measures3. Define the proposed expected conditions for each interactive measure, estimate

savings.– Example: General Population Characteristics, if available (and characteristics of subset

of eligible sites, if available).– The expected conditions for interactive measures are constant across the Baseline and

Efficient-case Conditions.4. Determine conditions for each interactive measure where Measure savings

differ by +/- 10% from savings calculated using proposed expected conditions (“Book-ends”)

5. RTF judges whether measure interaction is expected to be significant and whether candidate proxy is reasonable.– To help, we’ll look at distribution of existing conditions (RBSA), technically feasible

minimums and maximums, etc.

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Measure Interaction Decision Choices

1. Interaction is not significant (Proven)2. Include interactive measure as a measure

identifier ( Proven)3. Use available data (Proven)

I. Program Data, if representativeII. General Population Characteristics Data, if

representativeIII. Other Data, if representative

4. Collect data (Planning or Provisional)

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1.00

or l

ess

1.20

or l

ess

1.40

or l

ess

1.60

or l

ess

1.80

or l

ess

2.00

or l

ess

2.20

or l

ess

2.40

or l

ess

2.60

or l

ess

2.80

or l

ess

3.00

or l

ess

3.20

or l

ess

3.40

or l

ess

3.60

or l

ess

3.80

or l

ess

4.00

or l

ess

4.20

or l

ess

4.40

or l

ess

4.60

or l

ess

4.80

or l

ess

5.00

or l

ess

RBSA

Cou

nt

Showerhead Flow Rate (gpm)

Example 1• Measure

– Thermostatic Shower Restriction Valve, Retail Delivery

Interactive Measure

+/- 10% Book-end

Expected Condition

(RBSA)+/- 10% Book-end

Showerhead 2.00 gpm 2.21 gpm 2.44 gpm

Electric Water Heater Type

HPWH(51%)

99.7% Resistance

Resistance(0.2%)

GFX (ran out of time) (ran out of time) (ran out of time)

Source: RBSA

“+/- 10% Book-end”: Condition of the interactive measure which cause measure (i.e. TSRV) savings to vary by + or – 10% from the measure savings calculated using the “expected condition” of the interactive measure.

+/- 10% Book-ends

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Electric Water Heater Type

1. Savings interaction with water heater type is not significant

No Not true.

2. Include water heater type as a measure identifier

Maybe Would be difficultfor programs to pull off with a retail delivery

3.I. Use available representative program data

No No data available

3.II. Use RBSA data as representative of program

Yes Because of tiny fraction of HPWH in Region, RBSA water heater mix likely to represent program.

4. Collect water heater type data on a sample of measure installations

Maybe Good savings reliability, but program would need to be designed in a way to allow contact with participants difficult with retail delivery

GFX … … …

–

4. Collect showerhead flow rate data on a sample of measure installations

Maybe Good savings reliability, but program would need to be designed in a difficult with retail deliveryway to allow contact with participants –

3.I. Use available representative program data

No No data available

3.II. Use RBSA data as representative of program

Maybe May not be representative of program. Small gap between green bars.- Measure could be packaged with low flow showerhead, or - Program might be designed to target high flow showerheads

2. Include showerhead flow rate as a measure identifier

Maybe Would be difficult for programs to pull of with a retail delivery

Example 1 – Interactive Measure DecisionsMeasure Decision Choice Decision Notes

Shower-head

1. Savings interaction with showerhead is not significant

No Not true.

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0

10

20

0.250 -0.500

0.500 -0.750

0.750 -1.000

1.000 -1.250

1.250 -1.500

1.500 -1.750

1.750 -2.000

2.000 -2.250

2.250 -2.500

2.500 -2.750

Coun

t

Lighting Power Density (W/ft2)

0102030

0.025 -0.050

0.050 -0.075

0.075 -0.100

0.100 -0.125

0.125 -0.150

0.150 -0.175

0.175 -0.200

0.200 -0.225

0.225 -0.250

Coun

t

Floor U-Value

0

20

40

0.025 -0.050

0.050 -0.075

0.075 -0.100

0.100 -0.125

0.125 -0.150

0.150 -0.175

0.175 -0.200

0.200 -0.225

0.225 -0.250

Coun

t

Wall U-Value

02468

0.10

-…

0.20

-…

0.30

-…

0.40

-…

0.50

-…

0.60

-…

0.70

-…

0.80

-…

0.90

-…

1.00

-…

1.10

-…

1.20

-…

1.30

-…

1.40

-…

1.50

-…

1.60

-…

1.70

-…

Coun

t

Infiltration (ACHn)

Example 2Measure: Attic Insulation – R-0 to R-38• “Back of the Envelope”

– 1344 ft2 prototype, Portland Weather

Interactive Measure

+/- 10% Book-end

Expected Condition

(RBSA where Attic = R-0,

electric heat)

+/- 10% Book-end

Windows U-0.57 U-0.67 U-0.94

Infiltration 0.50 ACHn 0.62 ACHn 0.75 ACHn

Htg. System Heat Pump(40%) 24% HP Resistance

(12%)

Wall Ins. R-13 ~ R-7 ~ R-5

Floor Ins. ~ R-11 ~ R-5 ~ R-1

Duct Tight. 10% Supply12% Return

12% Supply 17.5% Return

23% Supply23% Return

CC&S PTCS 15% PTCS 0% PTCS

Lighting 90% CFL(6%) 30% CFL 0% CFL

(3%)

05

101520

0.20 -0.30

0.30 -0.40

0.40 -0.50

0.50 -0.60

0.60 -0.70

0.70 -0.80

0.80 -0.90

0.90 -1.00

1.00 -1.10

Coun

t

Window U-Value

Sour

ce: R

BSA

RBSA

RBSA

RBSA

RBSA

RBSA

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Level of Effort: Huge! (if no data)Weatherization Example

• Analyze Each Measure (33 iterations)– For each heating system: Heat Pump, eFAF, Zonal• Attic: R0-38, R11-38, R19-38• Floors: R0-30, R11-R30• Windows: Double-0.30, Single-0.30, 0.35-0.30• Walls, Duct Sealing, CC&S, Infiltration

– In each heating zone? (99 iterations)• Analysis and Decisions will need automation

Because of the difficulty for programs, the RTF may not want to deal with significant measure interaction through further disaggregation of measures (i.e. more measure identifiers). Instead, it may wish to consider use of RBSA data (choice 3.II) or program data collection (choice 4) for weatherization measures.

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DecisionMeasure Interactions

“I ________ move to adopt the following guidelines language:

To the extent practical, measure identifiers should be used to account for significant measure interaction. For example, the identifier ‘heating system type’ could be used to account for the interactions between envelope improvements and heat pumps.

When measure identifiers are not sufficient to account for all significant interactions, measure savings should be estimated using data expected by the RTF to represent program participants during the sunset period. These data should describe the interactive measures present when each measure was installed, and which interactive measures were installed simultaneously. Data collected directly from a sample of recent program participants is likely to serve these needs if the characteristics of the program participants are not expected to be changing quickly. For measures where interactive measures are not expected to be installed simultaneously, general population characteristics or characteristics of eligible sites may be judged to sufficiently represent program participants.

The methods used to deal with measure interaction should be documented in the summary sheet.”

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Remaining Useful Life (RUL)

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RUL

• Proposal:– For all pre-conditions measures, estimate RUL

based on best available information. If RUL is likely longer than the 20 year planning horizon, then RUL equals measure lifetime.

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

2

4

6

8

10

12

Today's Method Proposed Method

Year

Annu

al E

nerg

y Sa

ving

sUES Example:

Grocery ECMs for Display Cases (Replace existing Shaded Pole Motor with new ECM)

TodayMeasure Life =

Life of new ECM(RUL = EUL)

ProposedMeasure Life =

Remaining life of existing Shaded

Pole Motor

Note: 6-year estimate of remaining life of existing shaded pole motor is for illustration only.

Note:The issue of forecasting

the future current practice (at time = RUL) will be

discussed later, after the RTF decides on RUL.

Future Current Practice?

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UES Example: Attic Insulation R11-R38

(Add insulation to an existing attic with R11, go to R38)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 450

2

4

6

8

10

12

Today's Method Proposed Method

Year

Annu

al E

nerg

y Sa

ving

s

TodayMeasure Life =

Life of insulation

(RUL = EUL)

ProposedMeasure Life = Remaining life of existing R11=

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Standard Protocol - Discussion

• Two Optional Paths, depending on measure– “Deem” an RUL for all installations• Similar to UES

– Cannot “deem” the same RUL for all installations• Similar to Custom – See next slides.

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Custom Measure Example: Chiller Early Replacement

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

2

4

6

8

10

12

Today's Method Proposed Method

Year

Annu

al E

nerg

y Sa

ving

s

TodayMeasure Life =

Life of new ECM(RUL = EUL)

ProposedMeasure Life =

Remaining life of existing chiller

Note: 3-year estimate of remaining life of existing chiller is for illustration only.

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Custom Measure Issue: RUL is unknown and the fate of the measure depends on its value

• If RUL is big enough for cost-effective measure…

• If RUL estimate too short, measure not cost-effective…

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DecisionRemaining Useful Life

“I _______ move to adopt the following guidelines language:– For all pre-conditions measures, estimate RUL

based on best available information. If RUL is likely longer than the 20 year planning horizon, then RUL equals measure lifetime.”

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(Old) DecisionMeasure Interactions

“I ________ move to adopt the following guidelines language: • To the extent practical, measure identifiers should be used to account

for significant measure interaction. For example, the identifier ‘heating system type’ could be used to account for the interactions between envelope improvements and heat pumps. – When measure identifiers are not sufficient to account for all significant

interactions, measure savings should be estimated using data from a representative sample of recent program participants. These data should describe the interactive measures present when each measure was installed, and which interactive measures were installed simultaneously. • If collection of recent program participant data is not practical, and a reasonable proxy

for participant data is available, measure savings should be estimated using this proxy.

• The methods used to deal with measure interaction should be documented in the summary sheet.”