DIỄN ĐÀN KINH TẾ - XÃ HỘI VIỆT NAM TẠI BOSTON

Vietnam Economic Forum in Boston

Nguyên Tắc Chung

• Mục tiêu chính: Cùng giúp nhau nắm bắt thông tin về Việt Nam

• Định kỳ: Hàng tháng• Cấu trúc thảo luận

– Có khách mời hoặc không– 2 phần (một chủ đề lớn và các chủ đề nhỏ)– Thảo luận mở về tất cả các vấn đề trên tinh thần xây dựng– Chê hay phê bình vấn đề gì đó thì nên kèm theo giải pháp

• Chủ đề kỳ này: Sức cạnh tranh và triển vọng kinh tế Việt Nam đến năm 2020

Sức cạnh tranh và Triển vọng Kinh tế Việt Nam đến 2020

Competitive Ranking by the WEF• Vietnam ranks 75th/144 this year and switches positions with

the Philippines. • Over the last two editions, lost 16 places and is now the

second-lowest ranked among eight members of ASEAN. • The country loses ground in 9 of the 12 pillars of the GCI. • It ranks below 50th in all of the pillars, and dangerously close

to the 100th position on a majority of them. • As a sign of its fragility and extreme volatility, Vietnam

plunges 41 places in the macroeconomic environment pillar to 106th after it had recorded a 20-place gain in the previous edition.

Competitive Ranking by the WEF (con’t)

• Inflation approached 20 percent in 2011, twice the level of 2010, and the country’s sovereign debt rating worsened.

• In an effort to stem inflation, the State Bank of Vietnam tightened its monetary policy, thus making access to credit more difficult.

• Infrastructure (95th), strained by rapid economic growth, remains a major challenge for the country despite some improvement in recent years, with particular concerns about the quality of roads (120th) and ports (113th).

• Public institutions are characterized by rampant corruption and inefficiencies of all kinds.

Competitive Ranking by the WEF (con’t)

• Respect of property rights (113th) and protection of intellectual property (123rd) are all insufficient according to the business community.

• Private institutions suffer from poor ethics and particularly weak accountability (132nd).

• A few strengths: fairly efficient labor market (51st), large market size (32nd), and a satisfactory performance in the public health and basic education pillar (64th).

• Numerous and significant challenges require decisive policy action in order to put the country’s growth performance on a more stable footing.

Analysis by Economist Intelligence Unit

• The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) will maintain a firm grip on power in the forecast period.

• There is no prospect of major internal instability, despite factional splits between conservative hardliners and reformers.

• The poor performance of the economy in 2011-12 has forced reformers to concede ground to conservatives.

• Vietnam will continue to make strides in strengthening its ties with the West, despite intermittent tensions over human rights issues.

• Relations with China will remain strained over competing territorial claims in the South China Sea (East Sea).

Analysis by Economist Intelligence Unit

• A subdued global economy exerted a drag on Vietnamese GDP growth in 2012 and will continue to do so in 2013.

• Subsequently, a more favourable climate will lead to healthy real GDP growth averaging 6.9% a year in 2014-17.

• Inflation has slowed since mid-2011, and will average 7% in 2013-14 before accelerating to 8.4% on average in 2015-17.

• The ability of the authorities to support economic growth through monetary policy will be limited by strong price pressures in 2013-17.

• The current account: surplus in 2012, but deficit in 2013.• Inflows of foreign direct investment will strengthen in the

forecast period.

Đề án nâng mức tín nhiệm quốc gia• Đến 2020: Baa3 đối với xếp hạng tín nhiệm của Moody’s hoặc BBB-

đối với xếp hạng tín nhiệm của S&P hoặc Fitch (Xếp hạng hiện tại B2)• Tốc độ tăng trưởng GDP bình quân 7 - 8%/năm trong giai đoạn 2011-

2020.• Đến năm 2020 GDP theo giá so sánh bằng khoảng 2,2 lần so với năm

2010 và GDP bình quân đầu người theo giá thực tế ~ 3.000 USD.• Tỷ lệ bội chi ngân sách nhà nước < 4,5% GDP vào năm 2015 và khoảng

4% GDP trong giai đoạn 2016-2020.• Nợ công < 65% GDP, trong đó dư nợ Chính phủ <55% GDP; nợ nước

ngoài của quốc gia <50% GDP.

Discussions