Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    1/75

    1%(5:25,1*3$3(56(5,(6

    ','/(*$/,=('$%257,21/2:(5&5,0("

    7HG-R\.H

    :RUNLQJ3DSHUKWWSZZZQEHURUJSDSHUVZ

    1$7,21$/%85($82)(&2120,&5(6($5&+

    0DVVD.KXVHWWV$YHQXH

    &DPEULGJH0$

    -XQH

    7KHYLHZVH[SUHVVHGKHUHLQDUHWKRVHRIWKHDXWKRUDQGQRWQH.HVVDULO\WKRVHRIWKH1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI(.RQRPL.5HVHDU.K

    E\7HG-R\.H$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG6KRUWVH.WLRQVRIWH[WQRWWRH[.HHGWZRSDUDJUDSKVPD\EH

    TXRWHGZLWKRXWH[SOL.LWSHUPLVVLRQSURYLGHGWKDWIXOO.UHGLWLQ.OXGLQJQRWL.HLVJLYHQWRWKHVRXU.H

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    2/75

    'LG/HJDOL]HG$ERUWLRQ/RZHU&ULPH"

    7HG-R\.H

    1%(5:RUNLQJ3DSHU1R

    -XQH

    -(/1R

    $%#%

    7KLV SDSHU H[DPLQHV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKHOHJDOL]DWLRQRI DERUWLRQ DQGVXEVHTXHQW

    GH.UHDVHVLQ.ULPH,QD.XUUHQWVWXG\UHVHDU.KHUVHVWLPDWHWKDWWKHOHJDOL]DWLRQRIDERUWLRQH[SODLQVRYHU

    KDOIRIWKHUH.HQWGH.OLQHLQQDWLRQDO.ULPHUDWHV7KHDVVR.LDWLRQLVLGHQWLILHGE\.RUUHODWLQJ.KDQJHVLQ

    .ULPHZLWK.KDQJHVLQWKHDERUWLRQUDWLRZHLJKWHGE\WKHSURSRUWLRQRIWKH.ULPLQDOSRSXODWLRQH[SRVHG

    WROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ,QWKLVSDSHU,XVHDQDOWHUQDWLYHLGHQWLIL.DWLRQVWUDWHJ\,DQDO\]H.KDQJHVLQ

    KRPL.LGHDQGDUUHVWUDWHVDPRQJWHHQVDQG\RXQJDGXOWVERUQEHIRUHDQGDIWHULQVWDWHVWKDWOHJDOL]HG

    DERUWLRQSULRUWR5RHY:DGH,.RPSDUHWKHVH.KDQJHVZLWKYDULDWLRQLQKRPL.LGHDQGDUUHVWUDWHV

    DPRQJ.RKRUWVIURPWKHVDPHSHULRGEXWZKRZHUHXQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ,ILQGOLWWOHHYLGHQ.H

    WRVXSSRUWWKH.ODLPWKDWOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ.DXVHGWKHUHGX.WLRQLQ.ULPH,.RQ.OXGHWKDWWKHDVVR.LDWLRQ

    EHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQG.ULPHLVQRW.DXVDOEXWPRVWOLNHO\WKHUHVXOWRI.RQIRXQGLQJIURPXQPHDVXUHG

    SHULRGHIIH.WVVX.KDV.KDQJHVLQ.UD.N.R.DLQHXVHDQGLWVVSLOORYHUHIIH.WV

    7HG-R\.H

    1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI(.RQRPL.5HVHDU.K

    )LIWK$YHQXH WK)ORRU

    1HZ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    3/75

    ,,QWURGX.WLRQ

    ,QDUH.HQWDQG.RQWURYHUVLDODUWL.OH'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWSUHVHQWHYLGHQ.HWKDWWKH

    OHJDOL]DWLRQRIDERUWLRQLQH[SODLQVRYHUKDOIRIWKHUH.HQWGH.OLQHLQ.ULPHD.URVVWKH86

    0RUHRYHUWKH\VXJJHVWWKDWWKHIXOOLPSD.WRQ.ULPHRI5RHY:DGHZLOOQRWEHIHOWIRUDQRWKHU

    \HDUV7RTXRWH2XUUHVXOWVVXJJHVWWKDWDOOHOVHHTXDOOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQZLOOD..RXQWIRU

    SHUVLVWHQWGH.OLQHVRISHU.HQWD\HDULQ.ULPHRYHUWKHQH[WWZRGH.DGHVS,IWUXH

    SROL.LHVWKDWUHGX.HDERUWLRQZRXOGEHH[SH.WHGWRLQ.UHDVH.ULPHZKHUHDVSROL.LHVWKDWLQ.UHDVH

    DERUWLRQVX.KDVWKHUH.HQWO\DSSURYHGDERUWLRQSLOOPLJKWKDYHWKHRSSRVLWHHIIH.W*LYHQWKH

    VR.LDO.RVWVDVVR.LDWHGZLWK.ULPHDQGWKH.RQWURYHUV\VXUURXQGLQJDERUWLRQD.DXVDOOLQN

    EHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQG.ULPHKDVSURIRXQGLPSOL.DWLRQVIRUVR.LDOSROL.\

    7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVSDSHULVWRDQDO\]HWKHDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQG.ULPH

    'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWSUHVHQWD.RPSHOOLQJ.DVHWKDWWKHDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQG.ULPHLV

    SRWHQWLDOO\.DXVDO$..RUGLQJWRWKHDXWKRUVLQ.UHDVHVLQWKHUDWLRRIUHSRUWHGDERUWLRQVWROLYH

    ELUWKVWKHDERUWLRQUDWLRDUHVWURQJO\DVVR.LDWHGZLWKORZHU.ULPHDQGDUUHVWUDWHV0RUHRYHU

    WKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHHIIH.WLVUHPDUNDEOH$SHU.HQWLQ.UHDVHLQWKHPHDQDERUWLRQUDWLRLV

    DVVR.LDWHGZLWKDQSHU.HQWGH.UHDVHLQYLROHQW.ULPHDQSHU.HQWGH.UHDVHLQSURSHUW\.ULPH

    DQGDSHU.HQWGH.UHDVHLQPXUGHU7KHVHHIIH.WVDUHJHQHUDOO\ODUJHUDQGPRUHSUH.LVHO\

    HVWLPDWHGWKDQWKHHIIH.WVRILQ.DU.HUDWLRQDQGSROL.HPDQSRZHU7KXVWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKH

    DVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQG.ULPHWKHXVHRIQRQH[SHULPHQWDOPHWKRGVDQGWKH

    .RQWURYHUVLDOQDWXUHRIWKHSROL.\LPSOL.DWLRQVVXJJHVWWKDWIXUWKHUH[DPLQDWLRQLVZDUUDQWHG

    0\HPSLUL.DODSSURD.KWRWKHDQDO\VLVRIDERUWLRQDQG.ULPHGLIIHUVIURPWKDWRI'RQRKXH

    DQG/HYLWWDQGIROORZVSUHYLRXVHIIRUWVWRDVVR.LDWHOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQZLWKIHUWLOLW\V.KRROLQJ

    DQG.KLOGSRYHUW\/HYLQHHWDO$QJULVWDQG(YDQV*UXEHU/HYLQHDQG6WDLJHU

    6SH.LIL.DOO\,HVWLPDWHDUHGX.HGIRUPHTXDWLRQLQZKL.K.KDQJHVLQDUUHVWDQGKRPL.LGH

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    4/75

    UDWHVDPRQJ.RKRUWVH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQLQWKHSHULRGSULRUWR5RHDUH.RPSDUHGZLWK

    .RKRUWVXQH[SRVHG,QILYHVWDWHV$ODVND&DOLIRUQLD+DZDLL1HZ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    5/75

    UHSRUWLQJLPSURYHVLWPD\VWLOOEHDSRRUSUR[\IRUXQLQWHQGHGELUWKVDYHUWHG'RQRKXHDQG

    /HYLWWDVVXPHWKDWGLIIHUHQ.HVLQDERUWLRQUDWLRVZLWKLQVWDWHVRYHUWLPHUHIOH.WGLIIHUHQ.HVLQ

    XQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJ)HZZRXOG.RQWHQGWKDWDERUWLRQLVDQXQDPELJXRXVPHDVXUHRI

    XQZDQWHGSUHJQDQ.\%XWLWGRHVQRWIROORZWKDWGLIIHUHQ.HVLQWKHJURZWKRIDERUWLRQZLWKLQ

    VWDWHVLQWKHSHULRGDIWHU5RHPHDVXUHUHODWLYH.KDQJHVLQSUHJQDQ.LHVWKDWZRXOGKDYHEH.RPH

    XQLQWHQGHGELUWKV)RULQVWDQ.HEHWZHHQDQGWKH86IHUWLOLW\UDWHIHOOIURPWR

    ELUWKVSHUZRPHQWRWKHUHSRUWHGOHJDODERUWLRQUDWHRYHUWKLVVDPHSHULRGURVH

    IURPDERUWLRQVSHUZRPHQWRLQWRLQ+RZHYHUIURPWR

    WKHIHUWLOLW\UDWHURVHWRGHVSLWHDSHU.HQWLQ.UHDVHLQWKHDERUWLRQUDWHIURPWR

    RRQLQHWDO6X.KVXPPDU\VWDWLVWL.VDUHDWEHVWVXJJHVWLYH1HYHUWKHOHVVWKH\

    XQGHUV.RUHWKHSRVVLELOLW\WKDWWKHOLQNEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGXQLQWHQGHGIHUWLOLW\LVZHDNHUWKDQ

    'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWDVVXPH

    $WKLUGDGYDQWDJHRIWKHUHGX.HGIRUPZLWK.DWHJRUL.DOPHDVXUHVRIDERUWLRQOHJDOL]DWLRQ

    LVWKDWSUHYLRXVVWXGLHVKDYHGHPRQVWUDWHGDPDUNHGGH.OLQHLQUHODWLYHIHUWLOLW\UDWHVLQUHSHDO

    VWDWHVEHWZHHQDQG%HUNRYDQG6NODU-R\.HDQG0R.DQ/HYLQHHWDO

    $QJULVWDQG(YDQV7KLVGH.OLQHLQIHUWLOLW\UDWHVUHSUHVHQWVDPRUH.UHGLEOHVRXU.H

    RILGHQWLI\LQJYDULDWLRQZLWKZKL.KWRXQ.RYHUDUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQG.ULPHWKDQ

    ZLWKLQVWDWH.KDQJHVLQUHSRUWHGOHJDODERUWLRQVEHWZHHQDQG

    )LQDOO\DUHGX.HGIRUPDQDO\VLVRIDUUHVWVDQGKRPL.LGHVE\VLQJOH\HDURIDJHDOORZVIRU

    DVLPSOHEXWGLUH.W.RPSDULVRQRI.RKRUWVH[SRVHGDQGXQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ'LGIRU

    H[DPSOHWKHDUUHVWUDWHIRUPXUGHUDPRQJ\HDUROGVIDOORULQ.UHDVHOHVVLQUHSHDOUHODWLYHWR

    QRQUHSHDOVWDWHVDPRQJWKRVHERUQEHWZHHQDQG"

    7KHQXPEHURIDERUWLRQVLVEDVHGRQWKH&HQWHUVIRU'LVHDVH&RQWURODQG3UHYHQWLRQ&'&VXUYH\RIVWDWHKHDOWKGHSDUWPHQWVZKL.KWHQGWREHORZHUWKDQWRWDOVUHSRUWHGE\WKH$ODQ*XWWPD.KHU,QVWLWXWH$*,,XVHWKH&'&HVWLPDWHVEH.DXVH$*,GLG

    QRWUHSRUWDERUWLRQVIRU

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    6/75

    ,.RQ.OXGHWKDWWKHDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQG.ULPHLVQRW.DXVDOEXWPRVWOLNHO\

    WKHUHVXOWRI.RQIRXQGLQJEHWZHHQWKHJURZWKLQDERUWLRQDQG.KDQJHVLQ.UD.N.R.DLQHDQG

    KDQGJXQXVH0\.RQ.OXVLRQLVEDVHGRQWKHIROORZLQJILQGLQJV

    )LUVWWKHDERUWLRQUDWHLQUHSHDOVWDWHVEHWZHHQWRLVDOPRVWGRXEOHWKDWRIQRQ

    UHSHDOVWDWHV

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    7/75

    DVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQIHUWLOLW\DQG.ULPH7KHVHUHJUHVVLRQVDUHSHUVXDVLYHIRUVHYHUDOUHDVRQV

    WKHZHOOGR.XPHQWHGGH.OLQHLQIHUWLOLW\DVVR.LDWHGZLWKOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQLQWKHSUH5RHSHULRG

    DSSHDUV.OHDUO\UHODWHGWRWKHGH.OLQHLQXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJWKHD..XUD.\ZLWKZKL.K

    ELUWKVDV.RPSDUHGWRDERUWLRQVDUHPHDVXUHGLQWKHVDQGHDUO\VHOLPLQDWHV

    PHDVXUHPHQWHUURUDQGWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIIHUWLOLW\UDWHVE\UD.HLQ.UHDVHVWKHSRZHUWRGHWH.W

    DQHIIH.WJLYHQWKHJUHDWHUGHPRJUDSKL.LPSD.WRIOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQRQEOD.NIHUWLOLW\

    )LQDOO\'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWVSULPDU\UHJUHVVLRQVDUHVHQVLWLYHWRIXQ.WLRQDOIRUP,WLV

    QRW.OHDUDSULRULZKDWWKH.RUUH.WIXQ.WLRQDOUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ.ULPHDQGXQLQWHQGHG

    .KLOGEHDULQJVKRXOGEH'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWUHJUHVVWKHQDWXUDOORJDULWKPRI.ULPHRQWKHOHYHORI

    WKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWLR:KHQ,UXQWKHH[D.WVDPHUHJUHVVLRQVEXWXVHWKHORJRIWKHHIIH.WLYH

    DERUWLRQUDWLRWKH.RHIIL.LHQWRQDERUWLRQEH.RPHVSRVLWLYHDQGVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQWWKH

    .RPSOHWHRSSRVLWHRIZKDWWKH\UHSRUW

    ,,(PSLUL.DO,VVXHV

    7KHUHDUHWZRHPSLUL.DO.KDOOHQJHVWRHVWDEOLVKLQJDOLQNEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQG.ULPH

    )LUVWRQHPXVWGHPRQVWUDWHDUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJ

    &OHDUO\DERUWHGSUHJQDQ.LHVDUHXQZDQWHG7KHSURSHU.RXQWHUID.WXDOKRZHYHULVXQZDQWHGRU

    PLVWLPHGSUHJQDQ.LHVWKDWZRXOGKDYHEH.RPHXQLQWHQGHGELUWKVKDGDERUWLRQUDWHVEHHQORZHU

    1HZ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    8/75

    &RUN%OXPVWHLQDQG:ROOPDQ0RUHRYHUWKHXSVXUJHLQ.ULPHZDV.RQ.HQWUDWHG

    DOPRVWH[.OXVLYHO\DPRQJWKRVHXQGHU\HDUVRIDJHDQGDIIH.WHGEOD.NVPRUHWKDQZKLWHV

    8QOHVVRQH.RQWUROVIRUWKHVHVRXU.HVRI.RQIRXQGLQJLWLVGLIIL.XOWWR.RQYLQ.LQJO\DWWULEXWHWKH

    GH.OLQHLQ.ULPHWRWKHOHJDOL]DWLRQRIDERUWLRQ

    $$ERUWLRQDQGXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJ

    $VRXWOLQHGE\'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWWKHUHDUHVHYHUDOZD\VLQZKL.KOHJDODERUWLRQ.DQ

    DIIH.W.ULPH&RKRUWVL]HLVRQH)HZHUELUWKVPHDQIHZHU.ULPLQDOVLQVXEVHTXHQW\HDUV

    /HJDODERUWLRQKRZHYHUPD\DOVRDIIH.W.ULPHUDWHVE\DOORZLQJZRPHQSUHGRPLQDQWO\SRRU

    \RXQJDQGPLQRULW\WRDYRLGDQXQLQWHQGHGELUWK6LQ.H.KLOGUHQIURPGLVDGYDQWDJHG

    ED.NJURXQGVDUHPRUHOLNHO\WR.RPPLW.ULPHVDVWHHQRUDGXOWVWKHUHVXOWRIWKLVVHOH.WLYH

    UHGX.WLRQLQXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJLVDGURSLQ.ULPHUDWHVDSSUR[LPDWHO\WR\HDUVODWHU

    7KHUHDUHWZR.RPSRQHQWVRIXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJWKURXJKZKL.KDERUWLRQPD\

    RSHUDWH/HJDODERUWLRQPD\LPSURYHWKHWLPLQJRIELUWKV$VDUHVXOW.KLOGUHQDUHERUQLQWR

    PRUHQXUWXULQJHQYLURQPHQWVWKDQWKH\ZRXOGKDYHEHHQKDGD..HVVWRDERUWLRQEHHQPRUH

    UHVWUL.WLYH/HJDODERUWLRQPD\DOVRUHGX.HIDPLO\VL]HZKL.KPD\LQ.UHDVHUHVRXU.HVGHYRWHG

    WRHD.K.KLOG(YLGHQ.H.RQVLVWHQWZLWKDUHGX.WLRQLQ.RPSOHWHGIDPLO\VL]HZRXOGEHDQ

    LQYHUVHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGIHUWLOLW\6WDWHVZLWKJUHDWHUDERUWLRQUDWHVZRXOGKDYH

    ORZHUIHUWLOLW\UDWHVDOOHOVH.RQVWDQW(YLGHQ.HWKDWDERUWLRQLPSURYHVWKHWLPLQJRIELUWKV

    ZRXOGEHPRUHGLIIL.XOWWRGR.XPHQW$IWHUDQLQLWLDOGH.OLQHLQIHUWLOLW\UDWHVZLWKWKHDGYHQWRI

    OHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQWKHUHPD\EHOLWWOHDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGIHUWLOLW\UDWHVDVGHOD\HG

    .KLOGEHDULQJLV.RPSOHWHG+RZHYHUHYHQLIDERUWLRQRQO\LPSURYHVWKHWLPLQJRIELUWKVWKHUH

    VWLOOVKRXOGEHDQLQYHUVHDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGWHHQIHUWLOLW\7KDWLVVWDWHVZLWK

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    9/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    10/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    11/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    12/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    13/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    14/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    15/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    16/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    17/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    18/75

    ,SHUIRUPDVLPLODUGLIIHUHQ.HLQGLIIHUHQ.HDQDO\VLVRIUD.HVSH.LIL.KRPL.LGHUDWHVIRU

    WHHQVWR\HDUVRIDJHDQG\RXQJDGXOWVDJHVWR$OPRVWDOOWHHQVLQUHSHDOVWDWHVWKDW

    .RPHRIDJHEHWZHHQDQGZHUHERUQDIWHUDQGWKXVZHUHH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HG

    DERUWLRQLQXWHURVHH7DEOH%\.RQWUDVWLQDOO\RXQJDGXOWVDJHVWRZHUH

    ERUQSULRUWRDQGZHUHXQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ&RQVHTXHQWO\.KDQJHVLQ.ULPH

    EHWZHHQDQGDPRQJ\RXQJDGXOWVLQUHSHDOVWDWHV.DSWXUHYDULDWLRQXQUHODWHGWR

    OHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQDQGVHUYHDVDPHDQVRIHOLPLQDWLQJSHULRGHIIH.WVDPRQJWHHQV

    2QO\KRPL.LGHGDWDDUHUD.HVSH.LIL.DQGSRSXODWLRQGDWDE\\HDUVWDWHDQGUD.HDUH

    DYDLODEOHRQO\LQILYH\HDUJURXSLQJV&RQVHTXHQWO\,ORVHVRPHSUH.LVLRQLQWKHDVVLJQPHQWWR

    H[SRVHGDQGXQH[SRVHGJURXSVDV.RPSDUHGZLWKWKHDQDO\VLVE\VLQJOH\HDURIDJH+RZHYHU

    WKHSDWWHUQRIKRPL.LGHYDULHVVLJQLIL.DQWO\E\UD.HDQGPRVWOLNHO\UHIOH.WVGLVSDUDWHUHVSRQVHVWR

    WKH.UD.NHSLGHPL.6LQ.HP\REMH.WLYHLVWRHOLPLQDWHSHULRGHIIH.WVVWUDWLIL.DWLRQE\UD.H

    HQKDQ.HVWKH.UHGLELOLW\RIWKH.RPSDULVRQJURXSV$QRWKHUDGYDQWDJHRIWKHPRUHDJJUHJDWH

    DJHJURXSLQJVLVWKDW,ORVHIHZHUREVHUYDWLRQVEH.DXVHRI]HURKRPL.LGHUDWHV7KHUHOHYDQW

    UHJUHVVLRQPRGHO.DQEHZULWWHQDVIROORZV

    5HSHDO7HHQ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    19/75

    EHIRUHDQGDIWHUH[SRVXUHWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQDPRQJWHHQVUHODWLYHWR\RXQJDGXOWVLQUHSHDO

    UHODWLYHWRQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV,IDERUWLRQORZHUV.ULPHWKHQVKRXOGEHQHJDWLYH

    ,9 5HVXOWV

    $ $ERUWLRQIHUWLOLW\DQGXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJ

    7KHILUVWVHWRIUHVXOWVSHUWDLQVWRWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVDPRQJDERUWLRQIHUWLOLW\DQG

    XQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJ)LJXUHGLVSOD\VWLPHVHULHVRIIHUWLOLW\DQGUHVLGHQWDERUWLRQUDWHVIRU

    UHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVEHWZHHQDQG

    7KHUDWHVDUHELUWKVRUDERUWLRQVSHU

    ZRPHQWR\HDUVRIDJH7KHILUVWREVHUYDWLRQLVWKDWWKHGLIIHUHQ.HLQIHUWLOLW\UDWHV

    EHWZHHQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVLVVPDOODERXWELUWKVSHUZRPHQDQGUHODWLYHO\

    .RQVWDQWEHWZHHQDQG7KHJDSZLGHQVDIWHUDQGLVHVVHQWLDOO\.ORVHGE\

    /HYLQHHWDO+RZHYHUWKHJDSLQDERUWLRQUDWHVEHWZHHQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVLV

    PX.KODUJHUDSSUR[LPDWHO\DERUWLRQVSHUZRPHQDQGGRHVQRWGLPLQLVKDIWHU

    ,PSRUWDQWO\WKHGLV.UHSDQ.\LQDERUWLRQUDWHVEHWZHHQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVLVQRW

    UHIOH.WHGLQDGLIIHUHQ.HLQIHUWLOLW\UDWHVDIWHU,IWKHDERUWLRQUDWH.DSWXUHVXQLQWHQGHG

    SUHJQDQ.LHVWKDWZRXOGKDYHEH.RPHXQLQWHQGHGELUWKVWKHQRQHZRXOGH[SH.WWRREVHUYHD

    JUHDWHUGLIIHUHQ.HLQIHUWLOLW\UDWHVEHWZHHQWKHWZRJURXSVRIVWDWHV

    2QHH[SODQDWLRQIRUWKHGLV.UHSDQ.\LVWKDWDERUWLRQLVXVHGPRUHIUHTXHQWO\DVD

    VXEVWLWXWHIRU.RQWUD.HSWLRQLQUHSHDOVWDWHVEH.DXVHWKH.RVWDQGVWLJPDDVVR.LDWHGZLWKDERUWLRQ

    DUHOHVV7KXVWKHUDWHRIXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJPD\EHVLPLODUD.URVVVWDWHVGHVSLWHGLIIHUHQW

    UDWHVRIDERUWLRQ$QRWKHULQWHUSUHWDWLRQ.RQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHWLPHVHULHVSDWWHUQVLQ)LJXUHLV

    WKDWDERUWLRQDIIH.WVRQO\WKHWLPLQJRIELUWKVDQGQRW.RPSOHWHGIDPLO\VL]H7KXVWKHLQLWLDO

    GH.OLQHLQIHUWLOLW\UDWHVDVVR.LDWHGZLWKHDUO\OHJDOL]DWLRQUHSUHVHQWVDVKLIWLQWKHWLPLQJRIELUWKV

    ,XVHUHVLGHQWELUWKDQGDERUWLRQUDWHV'DWDRQUHVLGHQWDERUWLRQZHUH.RQVWUX.WHGIURPWKH&HQWHUVIRU'LVHDVH&RQWURO+HQVKDZ)RUUHVW6XOOLYDQDQG7LHW]HDQG+HQVKDZDQG9DQ9RUW

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    20/75

    IURPDGROHV.HQ.HWRWKHHDUO\WZHQWLHVIURPWKHHDUO\WZHQWLHVWRWKHODWHUWZHQWLHVDQGVRRQ

    7KLVZRXOGSUHVHUYH'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWVDUJXPHQWWKDWVWDWHVZLWKJUHDWHULQ.UHDVHVLQDERUWLRQ

    KDGIHZHUPLVWLPHGELUWKVDQGORZHUVXEVHTXHQW.ULPHUDWHV+RZHYHULI'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWW

    DUH.RUUH.WZHVWLOOVKRXOGREVHUYHDQHIIH.WRIOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQRQWHHQIHUWLOLW\UDWHVLQWKH

    SHULRGDIWHU5RHVLQ.HQRDJHJURXSGHOD\V.KLOGEHDULQJLQWRDGROHV.HQ.H

    $VDIXUWKHUH[DPLQDWLRQ,HVWLPDWHGDVHULHVRIUHJUHVVLRQVZLWKWRWDODQGWHHQVWDWH

    IHUWLOLW\UDWHVDVWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH,QWKHILUVWPRGHO,UHJUHVVHGIHUWLOLW\UDWHVRQDVHWRI

    LQGL.DWRUYDULDEOHVIRULQWHUD.WLRQVEHWZHHQUHSHDOVWDWHVDQGSHULRGVEHIRUHDQGDIWHU5RH,Q

    WKHVH.RQGVHWRIPRGHOV,UHJUHVVHGIHUWLOLW\UDWHVRQWKHDERUWLRQUDWH7KHSRLQWLVWRHVWLPDWH

    WKHVLPSOH.RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGIHUWLOLW\DGMXVWHGIRUVWDWHDQG\HDUIL[HGHIIH.WV

    5HVXOWVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH&ROXPQVDQGODUJHO\UHSOL.DWHWKHUHVXOWVLQ/HYLQHHWDO

    6LQ.HWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHLVLQORJVWKH.RHIIL.LHQWRQ5HSHDOLQGL.DWHV

    WKDWWRWDOIHUWLOLW\UDWHVIHOOSHU.HQWDQGWHHQIHUWLOLW\UDWHVSHU.HQWPRUHLQUHSHDOUHODWLYHWR

    QRQUHSHDOVWDWHVEHWZHHQDQG&ROXPQVDQGSUHVHQWVWKHUHVXOWVRID

    UHJUHVVLRQRIORJIHUWLOLW\UDWHVRQORJDERUWLRQUDWHV7KHLQWHUD.WLRQWHUPEHWZHHQUHSHDOVWDWHV

    DQGDERUWLRQUDWHVDOORZVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGIHUWLOLW\WRYDU\EHWZHHQUHSHDO

    DQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV7KHLQWHUD.WLRQWHUPVDUHSRVLWLYHWKH\LQGL.DWHWKDWLQUHSHDOVWDWHVD

    RQHSHU.HQWLQ.UHDVHLQWKHDERUWLRQUDWHLVDVVR.LDWHGZLWKSHU.HQWLQ.UHDVHLQWKHIHUWLOLW\

    UDWHRIDOOZRPHQDQGDLQ.UHDVHLQIHUWLOLW\UDWHRIWHHQV

    ,QQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVWKH

    UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGIHUWLOLW\LVSRVLWLYHEXWVWDWLVWL.DOO\LQVLJQLIL.DQW,I,OLPLWWKH

    UHJUHVVLRQWRWKHSRVW5RHSHULRGDIWHUZKL.KDERUWLRQVZHUHPHDVXUHGPRUHD..XUDWHO\WKH

    SRVLWLYH.RHIIL.LHQWVIRUUHSHDOVWDWHVEH.RPHHYHQODUJHU>[email protected]

    $.WXDOO\,XVHGDWZR\HDUPRYLQJDYHUDJHRIWKHDERUWLRQUDWHWRD..RXQWIRUWKHPRQWKGLIIHUHQ.HLQWKHOHQJWKRISUHJQDQ.\EHWZHHQDQDERUWLRQDQGELUWK

    7KHVHHVWLPDWHVDUHREWDLQHGE\VXPPLQJDQGIRUDOOZRPHQDQGDQGIRUWHHQV

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    21/75

    DVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGWHHQIHUWLOLW\UDWHVLVLQ.RQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHVWRU\WKDWVWDWHVZLWK

    KLJKHUDERUWLRQUDWHVKDYHORZHUUDWHVRIXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJ(YHQLIDERUWLRQKDGQRHIIH.W

    RQ.RPSOHWHGIHUWLOLW\DQGRQO\DIIH.WHGWLPLQJZHVKRXOGVWLOOVHHDQHJDWLYH.RUUHODWLRQ

    EHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGWHHQIHUWLOLW\

    'HVSLWHDSRVLWLYHRULQVLJQLIL.DQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGIHUWLOLW\UDWHVRQH

    PLJKWDUJXHWKDWELUWKVLQVWDWHVZLWKJUHDWHUDERUWLRQUDWHVDUHPRUHIDYRUDEO\VHOH.WHGRUPRUH

    LQWHQGHG-R\.HDQG*URVVPDQ,QGHHG'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWVDUJXPHQWLVHVVHQWLDOO\WKDW

    OHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQLQ.UHDVHVWKHDJJUHJDWHLQWHQGHGQHVVRIELUWKV7KXVVWDWHVZLWK

    .RPSDUDWLYHO\KLJKDERUWLRQUDWHVVKRXOGKDYHDVPDOOHUSURSRUWLRQRIELUWKVIURPSUHJQDQ.LHV

    GHV.ULEHGDVXQLQWHQGHG7RSURYLGHVRPHLQVLJKWDVWRWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQG

    ELUWKVIURPXQLQWHQGHGSUHJQDQ.LHV,UHJUHVVHGGL.KRWRPRXVLQGL.DWRUVRISUHJQDQ.\LQWHQWLRQ

    RQVWDWHDERUWLRQUDWHVZLWKGDWDIURPWKH3UHJQDQ.\5LVNDQG$VVHVVPHQW0RQLWRULQJ6\VWHPRU

    35$06VHH6H.WLRQ,,,$5HVXOWVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH,Q.ROXPQVDQGWKHGHSHQGHQW

    YDULDEOHLVRQHLIDZRPDQGHV.ULEHGKHUSUHJQDQ.\DVXQLQWHQGHGPLVWLPHGRUXQZDQWHGDQG

    ]HURLILQWHQGHG,Q.ROXPQVDQGWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHLVRQHLIWKHSUHJQDQ.\ZDV

    XQZDQWHGDQG]HURRWKHUZLVH(D.KPRGHOLQ.OXGHV.RQWUROVIRUDJHUD.HDQG\HDUDQGKDOIWKH

    VSH.LIL.DWLRQVLQ.OXGHVWDWHIL[HGHIIH.WV7KHDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGXQLQWHQGHG

    SUHJQDQ.\LVSRVLWLYHDOWKRXJKVWDWLVWL.DOO\LQVLJQLIL.DQWLQWKHVSH.LIL.DWLRQZLWKVWDWHIL[HG

    HIIH.WV7KHUHLVDQHJDWLYHDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQWKHDERUWLRQUDWHDQGDQXQZDQWHGSUHJQDQ.\LQ

    WKHPRGHOZLWKIL[HGHIIH.WVEXWLWLVPHDVXUHGLPSUH.LVHO\

    7KHUHDUHWZR.DYHDWVWRWKLVH[HU.LVH)LUVW35$06LVDVXUYH\RIZRPHQWKDWJDYHELUWKDQGWKXVLVQRWWKHDSSURSULDWH

    .RXQWHUID.WXDOIRUDERUWHGSUHJQDQ.LHV6H.RQGWKHGDWDSHUWDLQWRZKHUHDV'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWXVHDERUWLRQGDWDIURP$ERUWLRQUDWHVKRZHYHUDUHKLJKO\VHULDOO\.RUUHODWHG'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWUHSRUWWKH\HDU.RUUHODWLRQWREH0RUHRYHUXQLQWHQGHGELUWKVDYHUWHGDUHXQREVHUYHG7KXVVX.KH[HU.LVHVDUHRQHRIWKHIHZZD\VDYDLODEOHRIDVVHVVLQJZKHUH.KDQJHVLQDERUWLRQUDWHVDUH.RUUHODWHGZLWK.KDQJHVLQELUWKVGHV.ULEHGDVXQLQWHQGHG

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    22/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    23/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    24/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    25/75

    DUUHVWUDWHVIRUYLROHQW.ULPHSURSHUW\.ULPHDQGPXUGHUEHWZHHQWKHDQGELUWK

    .RKRUWVIDOORUULVHOHVVE\DQGSHU.HQWUHVSH.WLYHO\LQUHSHDOUHODWLYHWRQRQUHSHDO

    VWDWHV6LPLODUGH.OLQHVDUHREVHUYHGIRUKRPL.LGHYL.WLPL]DWLRQDQGRIIHQGLQJUDWHV.ROXPQV

    $QXQH[SH.WHGUHVXOWKRZHYHULVWKDWWKHDGYDQWDJHDVVR.LDWHGZLWKHDUO\OHJDOL]DWLRQLQ

    UHSHDOVWDWHVRIWHQEH.RPHVJUHDWHUIRUPRUHUH.HQW.RKRUWV,QGHHGWKHUHODWLYHGH.OLQHLQ

    PXUGHUDUUHVWUDWHV7DEOH.ROXPQDPRQJ.RKRUWVERUQEHWZHHQLQUHSHDOVWDWHVLV

    DOPRVWILYHWLPHVJUHDWHUWKDQWKHUHODWLYHGH.OLQHH[SHULHQ.HGE\WKH.RKRUWV

    7DEOHVDDQGEGLVSOD\UHVXOWVLQZKL.KWKHUHGX.HGIRUPHIIH.WVRIOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ

    RQ.ULPHDUHDOORZHGWRYDU\E\DJHDQG.RKRUW&RHIIL.LHQWVLQHD.K.ROXPQVKRZWKHUHODWLYH

    GLIIHUHQ.HLQDUUHVWDQGKRPL.LGHUDWHVE\ELUWK.RKRUWVDQGVLQJOH\HDURIDJHLQUHSHDOUHODWLYHWR

    QRQUHSHDOVWDWHV%\DQGODUJHWKHHVWLPDWHVTXDQWLI\WKHSDWWHUQVREVHUYHGLQ)LJXUHV

    &RQVLGHUWKH.RPSDULVRQRIWKHDQGELUWK.RKRUWVIRUWHHQV\HDUVRIDJH

    2QO\RIWKH.RHIIL.LHQWVLQ7DEOHVDDQGEDUHQHJDWLYHDQGQRQHDUHVWDWLVWL.DOO\

    VLJQLIL.DQWDWWKHSHU.HQWOHYHO>.ROXPQVLQ7DEOHVDDQGE@5HVXOWVDUHWKH

    RSSRVLWHDPRQJ\RXQJDGXOWVDJHVWRWZHQW\VHYHQRIWKH.RHIIL.LHQWVLQWKHORZHUKDOI

    RI.ROXPQVDQGDUHQHJDWLYHDQGRYHUKDOIDUHVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQW,QDGGLWLRQWKH

    PDJQLWXGHRIWKHHIIH.WRIDERUWLRQOHJDOL]DWLRQRQKRPL.LGHLVRIWHQODUJHZLWKUHODWLYHGH.OLQHV

    RIEHWZHHQDQGSHU.HQWDPRQJ.RKRUWVLQUHSHDOUHODWLYHWRQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV

    (VWLPDWHVIRUWKH.RKRUWVEXWHVSH.LDOO\WKHELUWK.RKRUWVDUHDOVR

    XQH[SH.WHG$V*UXEHU/HYLQHDQG6WDLJHUDUJXHRQHZRXOGH[SH.WWKH.RHIIL.LHQWVIRU

    .RKRUWVLQUHSHDOVWDWHVERUQDIWHU5RHY:DGHWRWHQGWR]HURDVQDWLRQDOOHJDOL]DWLRQRIDERUWLRQ

    OHDGVWRUHODWLYHGH.UHDVHVLQ.ULPHLQWKHQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVZKDWWKHDXWKRUVWHUPERXQ.HED.N

    1RWHDOVRWKDW,VKRZKRPL.LGHYL.WLPL]DWLRQUDWHVE\VWDWHRIUHVLGHQ.H.ROXPQDQGVWDWHRIELUWK.ROXPQ7KH

    VLPLODULW\RIWKH.RHIIL.LHQWVVXJJHVWVWKDWPLJUDWLRQIURPVWDWHRIELUWKWRVWDWHRIUHVLGHQ.HPD\QRWEHDQLPSRUWDQWVRXU.HRIPLV.ODVVLIL.DWLRQLQWKHH[SRVXUHPHDVXUH

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    26/75

    ,QVWHDG,ILQGWKDWWKH.RHIIL.LHQWVRQROGHUWHHQVERUQEHWZHHQLQUHSHDOVWDWHVDUH

    QHJDWLYHODUJHLQPDJQLWXGHDQGVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQW

    7DNHQWRJHWKHUWKHWLPHVHULHVSORWVDQGUHGX.HGIRUPUHJUHVVLRQVDUHLQ.RQVLVWHQWZLWKD

    VWURQJ.RKRUWHIIH.W:K\VKRXOGWHHQVH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQUHVSRQGGLIIHUHQWO\IURP

    \RXQJDGXOWV":K\GRGLIIHUHQ.HVEHWZHHQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVZLGHQDQGQRWQDUURZ

    ZLWKQDWLRQDOOHJDOL]DWLRQ",WLVLPSRUWDQWWRUH.DOOWKDWWHHQVERUQEHWZHHQ.RPHRIDJH

    EHWZHHQDQGDSHULRGRIUDSLGLQ.UHDVHLQYLROHQW.ULPH

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    27/75

    VHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHLUHVWLPDWHVWRWKHSHULRGEHIRUHDQGDIWHU,UHHVWLPDWHG'RQRKXHDQG

    /HYLWWVUHJUHVVLRQVRIORJDUUHVWVE\VLQJOH\HDURIDJHIRUWHHQVDQG\RXQJDGXOWV,QWKHVH

    UHJUHVVLRQVWKHDXWKRUVGRQRWXVHWKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWLREXWLQVWHDGDVVLJQHD.KDJHWRWKH

    VWDWHDERUWLRQUDWLRWKDWH[LVWHGWKH\HDUSULRUWRELUWK)RULQVWDQ.HDUUHVWVIRU\HDUROGVLQ

    1HZ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    28/75

    WKHUHIRUHLVWRILQGRWKHUPHDQVRIVHSDUDWLQJSHULRGIURP.RKRUWHIIH.WVLQWKHDEVHQ.HRI

    .RQVLVWHQWGDWDRQ.UD.NXVHE\\HDUDQGVWDWH

    :LWKLQVWDWH.RPSDULVRQJURXSVE\VLQJOH\HDURIDJH

    $QDOWHUQDWLYHPHDQVRIDGMXVWLQJIRUSHULRGHIIH.WVLVWRXVHDZLWKLQVWDWH.RPSDULVRQ

    JURXS,QWKLVDQDO\VLV,.RPSDUH.KDQJHVLQ.ULPHE\VLQJOH\HDURIDJHEHWZHHQWKHDQG

    ELUWK.RKRUWVZLWK.KDQJHVLQ.ULPHDPRQJWKHDQGELUWK.RKRUWVVHSDUDWHO\

    ZLWKLQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV,WKHQ.RQWUDVWWKHVHGLIIHUHQ.HLQGLIIHUHQ.HVEHWZHHQ

    UHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV2QO\WKH.RKRUWLQUHSHDOVWDWHVZDVH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HG

    DERUWLRQDQG\HWDOO.RKRUWVH[SHULHQ.HGWKHVDPHSHULRGHIIH.WV,IIRULQVWDQ.HWKHVSUHDGRI

    .UD.NDQGJDQJYLROHQ.HGLIIHUHGLQWLPLQJDQGV.RSHEHWZHHQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVWKHQ

    DZLWKLQVWDWH.RPSDULVRQJURXSZLOODGMXVWIRUVX.K.RQIRXQGLQJ

    7KHDGYDQWDJHRIXVLQJDQGDVWKHH[SRVXUHSHULRGLVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ7DEOH

    7KHUHLVDQSHU.HQWGURSLQIHUWLOLW\UDWHVDPRQJWHHQVDQGDSHU.HQWGURSLQWKHIHUWLOLW\UDWH

    RIDOOZRPHQLQUHSHDODV.RPSDUHGWRQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVEHWZHHQDQG0RUHRYHUWKH

    .KDQJHEHWZHHQDQGGRPLQDWHVWKHWRWDO.KDQJHEHWZHHQDQG7KH

    UHODWLYHIHUWLOLW\UDWH.KDQJHIURPWRDPRQJDOOZRPHQLQUHSHDOVWDWHVLVSHU.HQWRI

    WKHWRWDO.KDQJHWKDWR..XUVEHWZHHQDQG7KLVLVSODXVLEOHVLQ.HOHJDOL]DWLRQ

    R..XUUHGVXGGHQO\LQ1HZ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    29/75

    7KHUHVXOWVLQ7DEOHVKRZSURSRUWLRQDWH.KDQJHVLQ.ULPHIRU.RKRUWVH[SRVHGUHODWLYH

    WR.RKRUWVXQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ)RUHD.K.ULPHWKH''HVWLPDWHV.RQWUDVW.KDQJHV

    LQ.ULPHEHWZHHQWKHWZRDJHJURXSVZLWKLQUHSHDOVWDWHVRQO\WKH'''HVWLPDWHV.RPSDUH

    UHODWLYH.KDQJHVEHWZHHQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV

    7KHUHDUHSRWHQWLDOO\REVHUYDWLRQV

    JLYHQGDWDE\DJH\HDURIELUWKDQGVWDWH+RZHYHUGXHWRPLVVLQJGDWDRU]HURKRPL.LGHV

    D.WXDOVDPSOHVL]HVYDU\IURPIRUDUUHVWUDWHVIRUYLROHQWDQGSURSHUW\.ULPHWRIRU

    PXUGHUDUUHVWUDWHV,QHD.K.ROXPQWKH\RXQJHUDJHJURXSLVIURPWKHDQGELUWK

    .RKRUWVDQGWKHROGHUDJHJURXSLVIURPWKHDQGELUWK.RKRUW,IOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQLV

    DVVR.LDWHGZLWKORZHU.ULPHDQGDUUHVWUDWHVWKHQWKH''DQG'''HVWLPDWHVVKRXOGEHQHJDWLYH

    ,ILQGWKDWH[.HSWIRUKRPL.LGHDPRQJDQG\HDUROGV.ROXPQWKHUHLVOLWWOHWR

    VXJJHVWWKDWWKH.KDQJHLQ.ULPHDPRQJWKRVHH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQGLIIHUHGIURPWKRVH

    XQH[SRVHG)RULQVWDQ.HDUUHVWUDWHVIRUYLROHQW.ULPHLQUHSHDOVWDWHVIHOORQHSHU.HQWPRUH

    DPRQJUHODWLYHWR\HDUROGVEHWZHHQDQG.ROXPQ:KHQDGMXVWHGIRU

    VLPLODU.KDQJHVLQQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVWKHUHODWLYHGH.OLQHDPRQJ\HDUROGVZDVSHU.HQW

    1HLWKHU.KDQJHZDVVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQW,QGHHGWKHUHLVQRWRQHVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQW

    .KDQJHLQDQ\DUUHVWUDWHIRUDQ\DJHJURXS$QRWKHUQRWHZRUWK\UHVXOWLVWKDW.KDQJHVLQ

    KRPL.LGHDQGPXUGHUDUUHVWUDWHVDPRQJ\RXQJDGXOWVWR\HDUROGVDUHDOPRVWDOZD\V

    VPDOOHUWKDQWKHWR.KDQJHVLQ7DEOHVDDQGE7KLVVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHXVHRI

    .RPSDULVRQJURXSVZLWKLQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVQHWVRXWVKDUHGSHULRGHIIH.WVPRUH

    HIIH.WLYHO\WKDQDVSH.LIL.DWLRQZLWKRQO\VWDWHDQG\HDUIL[HGHIIH.WV

    7KHUHDUHODUJHQHJDWLYHDQGVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQWHIIH.WVRIDERUWLRQOHJDOL]DWLRQRQ

    KRPL.LGHYL.WLPL]DWLRQDQGRIIHQGLQJUDWHVDPRQJUHODWLYHWR\HDUROGV.ROXPQORZHU

    PLV.ODVVLIL.DWLRQZRXOGWHQGWRELDVHVWLPDWHVGRZQZDUGV7KXV,DOVRSHUIRUPDQDO\VHVLQZKL.KWKHSUHDQGSRVWH[SRVXUH

    SHULRGLVIURPWRDQGWKHDJHGLIIHUHQ.HEHWZHHQWKHWUHDWPHQWDQG.RPSDULVRQJURXSLVWZR\HDUVLQVWHDGRIRQH7KXV\HDUROGVDUH.RPSDUHGWR\HDUROGV\HDUROGVDUH.RPSDUHGWR\HDUROGVHW.

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    30/75

    KDOI7KHVHHVWLPDWHVDUHLQ.RQVLVWHQWQRWRQO\ZLWK.KDQJHVLQKRPL.LGHDPRQJRWKHUDJH

    JURXSVEXWDOVRDUHLQ.RQVLVWHQWZLWKUHVXOWVIRUDUUHVWUDWHVDPRQJUHODWLYHWR\HDUROGV

    WRSKDOIRI.ROXPQ)RUD.ORVHUORRNDW.ULPHDPRQJDQG\HDUROGV,SORWWHGWKH

    QDWXUDOORJDULWKPRIDUUHVWDQGKRPL.LGHUDWHVIRUDQG\HDUROGVLQ)LJXUHVDI

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    31/75

    DQGUHPDLQUHODWLYHO\IODWLQQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV6H.RQGWUHQGVLQKRPL.LGHHVSH.LDOO\KRPL.LGH

    RIIHQGLQJDPRQJ\RXQJDGXOWVDQGWHHQVZLWKLQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVDUHTXLWHVLPLODU

    %RWKWHQGWRULVHSHDNDQGIDOODWURXJKO\WKHVDPHWLPHDQGUDWH)LJXUHVDQG

    ,QDQDQDO\VLVRIWKH\HDUVWHHQVLQUHSHDOVWDWHVDUHWKHWUHDWPHQWJURXS

    DQG\RXQJDGXOWVWKH.RPSDULVRQJURXS

    $.RQWUDVWRI.ULPHUDWHVEHWZHHQDQG

    UHYHUVHVWKHH[SHULPHQW6SH.LIL.DOO\E\DOOWHHQVLQUHSHDOVWDWHVKDGEHHQH[SRVHGWR

    OHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQZKHUHDVRQO\DWHQWKRI\RXQJDGXOWVKDYHEHHQH[SRVHG

    %\DOO

    \RXQJDGXOWVLQUHSHDOVWDWHVKDGEHHQH[SRVHG7KXVWKH''IRUUHSHDOVWDWHVEHWZHHQ

    DQGVXEWUD.WVWKH.KDQJHLQ.ULPHDPRQJWHHQVIURPWKH.KDQJHLQ.ULPHDPRQJ\RXQJ

    DGXOWV6LQ.HWHHQVH[SHULHQ.HQR.KDQJHLQH[SRVXUHGXULQJWKLVWLPHWKH\VHUYHDVWKH

    .RPSDULVRQJURXSIRU\RXQJDGXOWV,HVWLPDWHDVLPLODUVHWRI''VIRUWKHQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV

    DOWKRXJKWKH.RQWUDVWLQH[SRVXUHLVQRWDVJUHDWDVLWLVLQWKHUHSHDOVWDWHV

    (VWLPDWHVRIWKH''DQG'''IURPHTXDWLRQDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHWRSSDQHORI7DEOH

    7KHDQDORJRXVHVWLPDWHVIRUWKH.RPSDULVRQRI\RXQJDGXOWVDQGWHHQVEHWZHHQDQG

    DUHVKRZQLQWKHORZHUSDQHO7KHUHDUHSRWHQWLDOO\DJHVWDWH\HDUREVHUYDWLRQVIRU

    HD.KUD.LDOJURXSEHWZHHQDQGDQGREVHUYDWLRQVIRUWKH.RPSDULVRQV

    'XHWRPLVVLQJGDWDRUOD.NRIUHSRUWHGKRPL.LGHVDYDLODEOHREVHUYDWLRQVDUHOHVV(D.K

    ,QJHQHUDO.RPSDULVRQVEDVHGRQDQGDVWKHSUHDQGSRVWH[SRVXUHSHULRGDUHODUJHO\.RQVLVWHQWZLWKUHVXOWVUHSRUWHGLQ7DEOH5H.DOOWKDWDOOWHHQVLQKDGEHHQERUQEHIRUHDQGWKXVZHUHXQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQLQXWHURE\DOOWHHQVKDGEHHQERUQDIWHUDQGWKHUHIRUHKDGEHHQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ%\.RQWUDVWQRQHRIWKH\RXQJDGXOWVDJHV

    WREHWZHHQDQGKDGEHHQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQLQXWHURZKL.KPDNHVWKHPDUHOHYDQW.RPSDULVRQJURXS

    5HIHUWR7DEOH2QO\\HDUROGVLQZHUHH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQEHWZHHQDQG*LYHQDJHJURXSVDQGWZR\HDUVWKHUHDUHSRVVLEOH.HOOVRIH[SRVXUHWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQEHWZHHQDQG$JDLQUHIHUWR7DEOH%HWZHHQDQGRIWKHSRVVLEOHWHHQDJHJURXSVKDGEHHQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ

    5H.DOOWKDWH[SRVXUHLQQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVEHJLQVZLWKWKHELUWK.RKRUW7KXVEHWZHHQDQGWKHLQ.UHDVHLQH[SRVXUHWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQLVJUHDWHUDPRQJ\RXQJDGXOWVWKDQDPRQJWHHQVLQQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVEXWWKH.RQWUDVWLVQRWDVJUHDWDVLQUHSHDOVWDWHV(TXDWLRQ.DQHDVLO\EHPRGLILHGWRUHIOH.WWKHDQDO\VLVRIWKLVVH.RQGH[SHULPHQW

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    32/75

    VSH.LIL.DWLRQLQ.OXGHVWKHVDPHVHWRI.RQWUROYDULDEOHVDVZHUHXVHGE\'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWW

    (VWLPDWHVIURPWKHILUVWWKUHHURZVRI7DEOHDUJXHDJDLQVWDQ\UHGX.WLRQLQKRPL.LGH

    IURPH[SRVXUHWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ7KH''HVWLPDWHVLQURZVDQGLQGL.DWHWKDWKRPL.LGH

    UDWHVLQ.UHDVHGUHODWLYHO\PRUHDPRQJWHHQVWKDQ\RXQJDGXOWVEHWZHHQDQG6HYHQRI

    HLJKW''HVWLPDWHVDUHVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQW7KH''HVWLPDWHVLQURZDUHLQVWUX.WLYH

    EH.DXVHWKH\UHIOH.WWKHILQGLQJUHSRUWHGHOVHZKHUHWKDWWKHXSVXUJHLQKRPL.LGHZDVUHODWLYHO\

    JUHDWHUDPRQJWHHQVWKDQ\RXQJDGXOWV%OXPVWHLQ7KH'''HVWLPDWHVLQURZ

    .RPSDUHWKHUHODWLYH.KDQJHVLQ.ULPHDPRQJWHHQVLQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVDIWHU

    HOLPLQDWLQJVWDWHVSH.LIL.UHSHDOYVQRQUHSHDOSHULRGHIIH.WV,IDERUWLRQORZHUV.ULPHWKHQ

    HVWLPDWHVLQ7DEOHVKRXOGEHQHJDWLYH7KHUHLVQRHYLGHQ.HWKDW.ULPHIHOOPRUHDPRQJWHHQV

    H[SRVHGDV.RPSDUHGZLWKXQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQ

    5HVXOWVIRU\RXQJDGXOWVDUHGLVSOD\HGLQWKHORZHUSDQHORI7DEOH,QWKLVDQDO\VLV

    WHHQVVHUYHDVWKH.RPSDULVRQJURXSVLQ.HWKHLUH[SRVXUHLQUHSHDOVWDWHVGLGQRW.KDQJH5RZ

    VKRZVWKH''HVWLPDWHVIRUUHSHDOVWDWHV7KHHVWLPDWHVDUHVPDOODQGVWDWLVWL.DOO\LQVLJQLIL.DQW

    IRUERWKZKLWHVDQGEOD.NV7KH''HVWLPDWHVIRUQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVDUHLQURZ7KH''

    HVWLPDWHVLQURZDQGWKH'''HVWLPDWHVLQURZVKRXOGEHLQWHUSUHWHGPRUH.DXWLRXVO\7KH

    H[SHULPHQWLQQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVLVOHVVVKDUSEHWZHHQDQGVLQ.HWHHQVWKH

    .RPSDULVRQJURXSZHQWIURPSDUWLDOO\H[SRVHGWRIXOO\H[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQRYHUWKLV

    SHULRGVHHIRRWQRWH7KH''HVWLPDWHVIRUZKLWHVLQURZDUHODUJHDQGVWDWLVWL.DOO\

    VLJQLIL.DQWVXJJHVWLQJWKDWDERUWLRQKDGDQLPSRUWDQWGLIIHUHQWLDOLPSD.WRQKRPL.LGHDPRQJ

    \RXQJZKLWHDGXOWV)RUEOD.NVWKH''HVWLPDWHVVXJJHVWOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQKDGQRHIIH.W7KH

    '''HVWLPDWHVVKRZDSRVLWLYHDQGLQVLJQLIL.DQWHIIH.WRIOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQRQKRPL.LGHUDWHV

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    33/75

    :KDWRYHUDOO.RQ.OXVLRQ.DQEHGUDZQIURPWKHUHGX.HGIRUPHVWLPDWHVLQ7DEOHV"

    7KHUHVXOWVLQ7DEOHWKDWDVVR.LDWHH[SRVXUHWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQZLWKDUUHVWDQGKRPL.LGHUDWHV

    IRUWR\HDUROGV.ROOH.WLYHO\DUHODUJHO\.RQVLVWHQWZLWK'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWVILQGLQJV

    VWDWHVWKDWUHSHDOHGDERUWLRQSULRUWR5RHY:DGHH[SHULHQ.HGHDUOLHUGH.UHDVHVLQ.ULPHWKDQ

    QRQUHSHDOVWDWHV+RZHYHUWKLVLQLWLDODVVR.LDWLRQLVQRWUREXVWWRDPRUHUHILQHGDQDO\VLVE\

    DJHUD.HDQGVXESHULRGV$V7DEOHVDDQGELQGL.DWHWKHUHLVQRDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQ

    H[SRVXUHWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQDQGDUUHVWDQGKRPL.LGHUDWHVDPRQJWHHQV0RUHRYHUWKHUHLVQR

    DVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQDQG.ULPHDPRQJ\RXQJDGXOWVWR\HDUVRIDJH

    ZKHQ,XVHZLWKLQVWDWH.RPSDULVRQJURXSV)LQDOO\,ILQGQRDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQWKH

    OHJDOL]DWLRQRIDERUWLRQDQG.ULPHDPRQJEOD.NWHHQVDQG\RXQJDGXOWVJURXSVIRUZKRPWKH

    GHPRJUDSKL.LPSD.WRIDERUWLRQZDVJUHDWHVW7KXVP\.RQ.OXVLRQDWWKLVMXQ.WXUHLVWKDWWKH

    DVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQDQG.ULPHDVUHSRUWHGE\'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWLVSUREDEO\

    VSXULRXVGXHWRWKHLQDELOLW\WR.RQWUROIRU.KDQJHVLQ.UD.NXVHDQGLWVVSLOORYHUHIIH.WV

    &&ULPHDQGXQLQWHQGHGELUWKVDYHUWHG

    7RWKLVSRLQWWKHDQDO\VLVRI.ULPHDQGDERUWLRQKDVUHOLHGRQDUHGX.HGIRUP.RPSDULVRQ

    RI.ULPHDQGDUUHVWUDWHVLQUHSHDOUHODWLYHWRQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWKRZHYHU

    HPSKDVL]HWKHGLUH.W.RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQODJJHGDERUWLRQUDWLRVDQG.ULPHLQDQHIIRUWWR

    PHDVXUHWKHHIIH.WRIXQLQWHQGHGELUWKVDYHUWHG

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    34/75

    $..RUGLQJO\,XVHWKH'''IUDPHZRUNIURPDERYHDQGUHJUHVVD.RKRUWVUD.HVSH.LIL.

    KRPL.LGHUDWHLQSHULRGWRQWKHUD.HVSH.LIL.IHUWLOLW\UDWHLQ\HDUWDDQGWKHLQWHUD.WLRQRIWKH

    IHUWLOLW\UDWHDQGH[SRVXUHWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQLQ\HDUWDZKHUHDLVWKHDJHRIWKH.RKRUWDW

    WLPHW7KHREMH.WLYHLVWRGLIIHUHQ.HRXWWKHXQGHUO\LQJUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQIHUWLOLW\DQG.ULPH

    DPRQJJURXSVXQH[SRVHGLQRUGHUWR.DSWXUHWKHGLIIHUHQWLDOHIIH.WRIDIDOOLQIHUWLOLW\DPRQJ

    JURXSVH[SRVHG7RLOOXVWUDWH.RQVLGHUHTXDWLRQ

    DMWWWMMDWMDMWDDMWDMW H767HHQ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    35/75

    7KHUHVXOWVLQWKHWRSSDQHORI7DEOHVKRZWKH''DQG'''HVWLPDWHVIURPWKH

    HVWLPDWLRQRIHTXDWLRQ7KHORZHUSDQHOVKRZVUHVXOWVIURPWKHVDPHH[HU.LVHEXWIRUWKH

    SHULRGZKHQ\RXQJDGXOWVZHUHWKHH[SRVHGJURXSDQGWHHQVWKH.RPSDULVRQJURXS

    7KHUHLVOLWWOHHYLGHQ.HRIDQ\DVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJDVSUR[LHGE\

    GLIIHUHQWLDO.KDQJHVLQIHUWLOLW\DQGKRPL.LGH7KH'''HVWLPDWHVLQURZDUHVPDOODQG

    VWDWLVWL.DOO\LQVLJQLIL.DQW7KHUHVXOWVIRU\RXQJDGXOWVDUHHTXDOO\XQVXSSRUWLYHRIDUHODWLRQVKLS

    EHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQG.ULPH

    '6HQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VHV

    )XQ.WLRQDOIRUP

    'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWV.RQ.OXVLRQWKDWOHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQORZHUHG.ULPHLVEDVHGSULPDULO\

    RQUHJUHVVLRQVRIWKHQDWXUDOORJRIWKHWRWDO.ULPHUDWHRQWKHOHYHORIWKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWLR

    7KHVSH.LIL.DWLRQLPSOLHVDQH[SRQHQWLDOUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ.ULPHUDWHVDQGDERUWLRQ

    +RZHYHUZHDUHUHDOO\LQWHUHVWHGLQWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ.ULPHDQGXQLQWHQGHGELUWKV

    DYHUWHGZKL.KLVXQREVHUYDEOH%\HQWHULQJWKHOHYHORIWKHDERUWLRQUDWLRLQDUHJUHVVLRQRIORJ

    .ULPHUDWHV'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWDVVXPHWKHUHODWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGXQLQWHQGHG

    ELUWKVDYHUWHGLVDOVROLQHDU2WKHUIXQ.WLRQDOIRUPVDUH.OHDUO\SRVVLEOH

    7RDVVHVVWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHLUHVWLPDWHVWRDQDOWHUQDWLYHVSH.LIL.DWLRQ,UHHVWLPDWHG

    'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWVUHJUHVVLRQVDVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHRIWKHLUSDSHU,VXEVWLWXWHGWKHQDWXUDO

    ORJDULWKPRIWKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWLRIRUWKHOHYHORIWKHDERUWLRQUDWLR7KHUHVXOWVDUH

    GLVSOD\HGLQ7DEOH7KHILUVWURZRI.RHIIL.LHQWVUHSOL.DWHVWKHUHVXOWVLQ'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWW

    /HW&EHWKH.ULPHUDWH8WKHUDWHRIXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJDQG$WKHDERUWLRQUDWH'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWUXQ/Q&D8ZKHUHD!+RZHYHU8LVXQREVHUYHG&RQVLGHU8E/Q$ZKHUHE7KLVLPSOLHVGLPLQLVKLQJUHWXUQVWRDERUWLRQ

    ZKL.KZRXOGEHSODXVLEOHLIVXEVWLWXWLRQRIDERUWLRQIRU.RQWUD.HSWLRQLQ.UHDVHGDVWKHUHODWLYHSUL.HRIDERUWLRQIHOO6XEVWLWXWLQJIRU8LQWKH.ULPHHTXDWLRQ\LHOGV/Q&./Q$ZKHUH.DE

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    36/75

    7KHVH.RQGURZRI.RHIIL.LHQWVLVIRUWKHORJRIWKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWH7KHVH

    .RHIIL.LHQWVDUHSRVLWLYHLQHYHU\.DVHDQGVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQWLQILYHRXWRIVL[UHJUHVVLRQV

    $QLPSRUWDQWOLPLWDWLRQRIXVLQJWKHQDWXUDOORJDULWKPRIWKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWLRLV

    WKDWVPDOODEVROXWHLQ.UHDVHV.DQEHYHU\ODUJHUHODWLYHLQ.UHDVHVLIWKHLQLWLDOOHYHOLVORZ7KH

    WKLUGURZRI7DEOHVKRZVWKHZHLJKWHGPHDQVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQDQGWKHPLQLPXPDQG

    PD[LPXPYDOXHRIWKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWLRLQWKHVDPSOH7KHUHLV.OHDUO\DQH[WUHPHUDQJH

    RIYDOXHVIRUWKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWLR7ROHVVHQWKHLPSD.WRIVX.KH[WUHPHUHODWLYH.KDQJHV

    ,VWUDWLILHGWKHVDPSOHE\UHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVDQG,UHVWUL.WHGLWWRWKH\HDUV

    7KLVLQ.UHDVHGWKHPHDQVORZHUHGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVDQGWLJKWHQHGWKHUDQJHEHWZHHQWKH

    PLQLPXPDQGPD[LPXP,WKHQUHHVWLPDWHGWKHUHJUHVVLRQVIRUWKHVXEVDPSOHZLWKERWKWKH

    OHYHODQGWKHORJDULWKPRIWKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWLR7KHUHVXOWVLQWKHORZHUWZRSDQHOVRI

    7DEOHPLUURUWKRVHIURPWKHIXOOVDPSOHDQHJDWLYHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHQDWXUDOORJRI

    WKH.ULPHUDWHDQGWKHOHYHORIWKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWLREH.RPHVSRVLWLYHLQHYHU\LQVWDQ.H

    ZKHQWKHQDWXUDOORJDULWKPRI.ULPHLVUHJUHVVHGRQWKHQDWXUDOORJRIWKHHIIH.WLYHDERUWLRQUDWLR

    7UDYHODQGPLJUDWLRQ

    (IIH.WVRIDERUWLRQOHJDOL]DWLRQRQ.ULPHZLOOEHELDVHGLIZRPHQLQQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV

    WUDYHOHGWRUHSHDOVWDWHVWRREWDLQDERUWLRQ

    $VDVLPSOH.KH.N,.UHDWHGD.DWHJRU\RIERUGHU

    VWDWHVWKDW.RQVLVWHGRIDQ\VWDWHWKDWVKDUHGDERUGHUZLWK&DOLIRUQLD1HZ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    37/75

    VKRXOGDOVREHQHJDWLYHEXWVPDOOHULQDEVROXWHYDOXHWKDQWKH.RHIIL.LHQWRQ5HSHDO

    7KHUHVXOWVZHUHQRW.RQVLVWHQWZLWKWKLVH[SH.WDWLRQQRWVKRZQ,QGHHGWKHUHZDVQR

    .RQVLVWHQWSDWWHUQWRWKHUHVXOWV)RUIRXURXW.RPHV.RHIIL.LHQWVRQWKHERUGHUVWDWHWHUPVZHUH

    SRVLWLYHDQGRIWHQVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQW)RUYLROHQW.ULPHDUUHVWUDWHVWKH.RHIIL.LHQWZDVPRUH

    QHJDWLYHWKDQWKH.RHIIL.LHQWRQUHSHDOVWDWHVDQGVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQW

    $QRWKHUVRXU.HRIELDVLVWKDWPRVW.ULPHVWDWLVWL.VDUHPHDVXUHGE\VWDWHRIUHVLGHQ.H

    ZKHUHDVWKHLQGL.DWRUVRIDERUWLRQOHJDOL]DWLRQPHDVXUHH[SRVXUHE\VWDWHRIELUWK2QHXVHIXO

    DVSH.WWKH1&+6YL.WLPL]DWLRQGDWDLVWKDWWKH\DUHDYDLODEOHE\VWDWHRIELUWKDVZHOODVVWDWHRI

    UHVLGHQ.H7KHUHVXOWVLQ7DEOHVEDQGVKRZOLWWOHPHDQLQJIXOGLIIHUHQ.HEHWZHHQHVWLPDWHV

    RIDERUWLRQDQGKRPL.LGHYL.WLPL]DWLRQDVPHDVXUHGE\VWDWHRIUHVLGHQ.HDQGE\VWDWHRIELUWK,

    LQWHUSUHWWKLVDVVRPHHYLGHQ.HWKDWUHOR.DWLRQWRDQRWKHUVWDWHLVQRWDVLJQLIL.DQWVRXU.HRIELDV

    6DPSOHVHOH.WLRQDQGVWDWH\HDUIL[HGHIIH.WV

    ,QDOODQDO\VHV,GURSSHGREVHUYDWLRQVLIWKHUHZHUH]HURKRPL.LGHVLQDVWDWH\HDUDJH

    .HOO7RDVVHVVWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHHVWLPDWHVWRWKLVORVVRIGDWD,UHUDQWKHUHJUHVVLRQVLQ

    7DEOHVDDQGIRUYLROHQW.ULPHDQGSURSHUW\.ULPHDUUHVWUDWHVIRUWKHVXEVDPSOHRIVWDWH

    \HDUDJH.HOOVWKDWZHUHDYDLODEOHIRUPXUGHUDUUHVWUDWHV7KHUHZDVOLWWOHGLIIHUHQ.HEHWZHHQ

    WKHVH.RHIIL.LHQWVDQGWKRVHLQ7DEOHVDDQGQRWVKRZQ7KHUHVXOWLVQRWVXUSULVLQJ

    VLQ.HWKHUHJUHVVLRQVZHUHZHLJKWHGE\WKHVWDWHSRSXODWLRQDQGWKHGURSSHGREVHUYDWLRQVWHQGHG

    WREH\RXQJHUDJHJURXSVIURPVPDOOVWDWHV

    ,XVHG.RPSDULVRQJURXSVZLWKLQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDOVWDWHVWRDGMXVWIRUZLWKLQVWDWH

    WUHQGVLQ.ULPHWKDWPD\KDYHGLIIHUHGEHWZHHQWKHVHWZRW\SHVRIVWDWHV$OHVVUHVWUL.WLYH

    DGMXVWPHQWLVWRLQ.OXGHVWDWH\HDURIELUWK7DEOHRUVWDWH\HDU7DEOHLQWHUD.WLRQV7KH

    LQ.OXVLRQRIVWDWHVSH.LIL.WUHQGVKDGTXDOLWDWLYHO\OLWWOHHIIH.WRQWKHHVWLPDWHVEXWGLGLQ.UHDVH

    WKHVWDQGDUGHUURUVUHVXOWVQRWVKRZQ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    38/75

    9&RQ.OXVLRQ

    'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWSUHVHQWDQLQWULJXLQJDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQWKHJURZWKLQ

    DERUWLRQDQGWKHGH.UHDVHLQ.ULPHLQWKHV7KHHYLGHQ.H,KDYHSUHVHQWHGGRHVQRWVXSSRUW

    D.DXVDOLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKLVDVVR.LDWLRQ7KHSULPDU\GLIIHUHQ.HEHWZHHQ'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWV

    DSSURD.KDQGPLQHLVRQHRILGHQWLIL.DWLRQ,KDYHDUJXHGWKDWWKHPRVWXVHIXOVRXU.HRI

    LGHQWLI\LQJYDULDWLRQZLWKZKL.KWRXQ.RYHUDUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHOHJDOL]DWLRQRIDERUWLRQ

    DQG.ULPHLVD.RPSDULVRQRI.RKRUWVH[SRVHGDQGXQH[SRVHGWRWKHSUH5RHUHSHDORIDERUWLRQ

    ODZVEHWZHHQDQG7KHUHLVVXEVWDQWLDOHYLGHQ.HWKDWWKHSUH5RHOHJDOL]DWLRQRI

    DERUWLRQUHGX.HGIHUWLOLW\DQGE\H[WHQVLRQXQZDQWHG.KLOGEHDULQJ%\.RQWUDVW'RQRKXHDQG

    /HYLWWUHO\RQWKHDGMXVWHG.RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQUDWLRVIURPWRDQG.ULPHUDWHV

    IURPWR+RZHYHUDERUWLRQLVSRRUO\PHDVXUHGSULRUWR5RHPRUHRYHULWLVPRUH

    GLIIL.XOWWRGHPRQVWUDWHDQDVVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQDERUWLRQDQGXQLQWHQGHG.KLOGEHDULQJLQWKH

    SHULRGDIWHU5RHZKL.KUDLVHVXQ.HUWDLQW\DVWRZKDWGLIIHUHQWLDO.KDQJHVLQDERUWLRQZLWKLQ

    VWDWHVDUHPHDVXULQJ

    7KHRWKHUPDMRUGLIIHUHQ.HEHWZHHQWKHLUVWXG\DQGPLQHLVWKHHIIRUWWR.RQWUROIRU

    .RQIRXQGLQJIURPXQREVHUYHGSHULRGHIIH.WVVX.KDV.UD.NDQGKDQGJXQXVH,XVHGWKHUHODWLYH

    .KDQJHLQ.ULPHDPRQJ.RPSDULVRQJURXSVRIVLPLODUDJHDQGUD.HZLWKLQUHSHDODQGQRQUHSHDO

    VWDWHVWRPLQLPL]H.RQIRXQGLQJ7KH.RPSDULVRQJURXSVZHUHHLWKHUXQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HG

    DERUWLRQRUH[SHULHQ.HGQR.KDQJHLQH[SRVXUHGXULQJWKHVWXG\SHULRG7KHDVVXPSWLRQZDV

    WKDWYDULDWLRQLQWKH.ULPHUDWHRIWKH.RPSDULVRQJURXSZDVDUHDVRQDEOH.RXQWHUID.WXDOIRUZKDW

    ZRXOGKDYHEHHQREVHUYHGDPRQJWKHWUHDWPHQWJURXSKDGWKHUHEHHQQROHJDOL]DWLRQRI

    DERUWLRQSULRUWR5RH'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWXVHG.RQWUROVIRUQDWLRQDOWUHQGVWRDGMXVWIRU

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    39/75

    .KDQJHVGXHWRKDUGWRPHDVXUHID.WRUVWKDWDIIH.W.ULPH+RZHYHUWKHDUULYDODQGGLIIXVLRQRI

    .UD.NYDULHGE\VWDWHZKL.KOLPLWVWKHXVHIXOQHVVRIQDWLRQDOWUHQGVDVD.RQWUROIRUVX.K

    .RQIRXQGLQJ,QVXPHYHQLIRQHZHUHWR.KDOOHQJHP\.KRL.HRIGDWDVHOH.WLRQRI.RPSDULVRQ

    JURXSVRUDUJXHIRUDSDUWL.XODUIXQ.WLRQDOIRUPWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHHIIH.WVUHSRUWHGE\

    'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWWWKHLQDELOLW\WR.RQWUROIRUVWDWH\HDUHIIH.WVWKHIUDJLOLW\RIWKHLU

    HVWLPDWHVDQGWKH.RQWURYHUVLDOSROL.\LPSOL.DWLRQVLQGL.DWHWKDWIXUWKHUPRUHUHILQHGDQDO\VHV

    DUHQHHGHGEHIRUH.DXVDOLQIHUHQ.HVDUHGUDZQ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    40/75

    $.NQRZOHGJHPHQWV

    7KLVZRUNZDVVXSSRUWHGE\DJUDQWIURPWKH2SHQ6R.LHW\,QVWLWXWH-RKQ'RQRKXH,,,DQG

    6WHYHQ/HYLWWJUD.LRXVO\VKDUHGWKHLUGDWDDQGSURJUDPVZKL.KJUHDWO\ID.LOLWDWHGP\DQDO\VLV

    7KH\DOVRJDYHPHKHOSIXO.RPPHQWVRQDQHDUOLHUGUDIW,PXVWDOVRWKDQN*UHJ&ROPDQIRU

    UHVHDU.KDVVLVWDQ.HDQG%REDHVWQHU0L.KDHO*URVVPDQ6DQGHUVRUHQPDQ3KLOLS&RRN

    :LOOLDP(YDQV3KLOOLS/HYLQH-RKQ/RWWDQGQXPHURXVVHPLQDUSDUWL.LSDQWVIRUKHOSIXO

    .RPPHQWV7KHYLHZVDQGHUURUVLQWKLVPDQXV.ULSWDUHPLQHDQGQRWWKRVHRIWKH2SHQ6R.LHW\

    ,QVWLWXWH%DUX.K&ROOHJHRUWKH1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI(.RQRPL.5HVHDU.K

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    41/75

    5HIHUHQ.HV

    $.NHUORI*HRUJH

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    42/75

    $QQXDO6XPPDU\$WODQWD*HRUJLD&HQWHUVIRU'LVHDVH&RQWURO

    &RRN3KLOLSDQG-RKQ+/DXE7KH8QSUH.HGHQWHG(SLGHPL.LQ&RPSXWHU)LOH@,QWHU8QLYHUVLW\&RQVRUWLXPIRU3ROLWL.DODQG6R.LDO

    5HVHDU.KYHUVLRQV%RVWRQ0$1RUWKHDVWHUQ8QLYHUVLW\&ROOHJHRI&ULPLQDO-XVWL.H

    >SURGX.HU@$QQ$UERU0L.KLJDQ,QWHU8QLYHUVLW\&RQVRUWLXPIRU3ROLWL.DODQG6R.LDO

    5HVHDU.K>GLVWULEXWRU@

    )R[-DPHV$ODQ'HPRJUDSKL.VDQG86+RPL.LGH7KH&ULPH'URSLQ$PHUL.D$OIUHG

    %OXPVWHLQDQG-RHO:ROOPDQHGV1HZ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    43/75

    *DUURZ'DYLG/6H[XDOLW\DQG/LEHUW\WKH5LJKWWR3ULYD.\DQGWKH0DNLQJRI5RHY:DGH

    %HUNHOH\&$8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD3UHVV

    *HURQLPRXV$UOHQHDQG6DQGHUVRUHQPDQ7KH6R.LRH.RQRPL.&RQVHTXHQ.HVRI7HHQ

    &KLOGEHDULQJ5H.RQVLGHUHG7KH4XDUWHUO\-RXUQDORI(.RQRPL.V

    *HURQLPRXV$UOHQHDQG6DQGHUVRUHQPDQ0DWHUQDO

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    44/75

    +HQVKDZ6WDQOH\)RUUHVW-D.TXLOLQH'DUUR.K6XOOLYDQ(OOHQDQG&KULVWRSKHU7LHW]H

    $ERUWLRQ1HHGVDQG6HUYL.HVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV(D.K6WDWHDQG

    0HWURSROLWDQ$UHD1HZ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    45/75

    XEL.ND/=0DWHM.HN+3'DYLG='\WU\.K:%0LOOHUDQG=5RWK&KLOGUHQIURP

    8QZDQWHG3UHJQDQ.LHVLQ3UDJXH&]H.K5HSXEOL.5HYLVLWHGDW$JH7KLUW\$.WD

    3V\.KLDWUL.D6.DQGLQDYL.D

    /DGHU/DZUHQ.H$ERUWLRQ,,0DNLQJWKH5HYROXWLRQ1HZ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    46/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    47/75

    7DEOH

    $VVR.LDWLRQ%HWZHHQWKH)HUWLOLW\5DWH$ERUWLRQ/HJDOL]DWLRQDQGWKH$ERUWLRQ5DWH

    86

    'HSHQGHQW9DULDEOH

    /RJ)HUWLOLW\5DWH /RJ7HHQ)HUWLOLW\5DWH

    5HSHDO[ 5HSHDO[

    5HSHDO[

    /RJDERUWLRQUDWH

    /RJDERUWLRQUDWHUHSHDO

    VWDWH

    $GMXVWHG5

    1

    D$OOUHJUHVVLRQVLQ.OXGH.RQWUROVIRUVWDWHDQG\HDUHIIH.WVDQGDOODUHZHLJKWHGE\WKHUHVLGHQW

    SRSXODWLRQRIZRPHQWR\HDUVRIDJHLQWKHVWDWH5HSHDOLVDGXPP\YDULDEOHWKDWLVRQH

    IRUWKHVWDWHVRI$ODVND&DOLIRUQLD:DVKLQJWRQ'&+DZDLL1HZ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    48/75

    7DEOH

    $VVR.LDWLRQEHWZHHQ3UHJQDQ.\,QWHQWLRQDQGWKH6WDWH$ERUWLRQ5DWHVEDVHGRQWKH3UHJQDQ.\5LVN$VVHVVPHQWDQG0RQLWRULQJ6\VWHP35$06

    8QLQWHQGHG3UHJQDQ.\ 8QZDQWHG3UHJQDQ.\

    $ERUWLRQUDWH[

    6WDWHIL[HGHIIH.WV 1R

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    49/75

    7DEOH

    $UUHVWV$UUHVW5DWHV0XUGHU9L.WLPL]DWLRQ5DWHVDQG0XUGHU2IIHQGLQJ5DWHVE\%LUWK&RKR

    5HSHDODQG1RQUHSHDO6WDWHV

    /QYLROHQW /QSURSHUW\ /QPXUGHU /QPXUGHU /QPXUGHU /QP DUUHVWUDWHV DUUHVWUDWHV DUUHVWUDWHV 9L.WLPL]DWLRQ RIIHQGLQJ YL.WLPL]

    UDWHVUHVLGHQW UDWHV UDWHVELUWK

    %LUWK.RKRUWV

    5HSHDO

    5HSHDO

    5HSHDO

    1

    5VTXDUHDGM

    &RHIIL.LHQWVLQEROGVWDQGDUGHUURUVEHORZDUHUHODWLYH.KDQJHVLQDUUHVWDQGKRPL.LGHUDWHVIRUELUWK.R

    UHODWLYHWRQRQUHSHDOVWDWHV7KHRPLWWHG.DWHJRU\LVWKHELUWK.RKRUW$OOVSH.LIL.DWLRQVLQ.OXGLQWHUD.WLRQVRIDJHDQGVWDWHDVZHOODVDJHDQG\HDURIELUWKVHHHTXDWLRQLQWH[W6WDQGDUGHUURUVKDY

    IRULQWUD.ODVV.RUUHODWLRQZLWKLQVWDWHDQG\HDURIELUWK.HOOV7KHUHDUHSRVVLEOH.HOOVDJHJURX

    YDULHGQXPEHURIDJH\HDU.HOOVVLQ.HWKHVDPSOHLVOLPLWHGWR.RKRUWVERUQEHWZHHQDQG7KREVHUYDWLRQVHLWKHUEH.DXVHVWDWHVGLGQRWUHSRUWLQWKRVH\HDUVRUWKHUHZHUHQRKRPL.LGHVRUDUUHVWVLQD

    VWDWH\HDU.HOO$OOUHJUHVVLRQVKDYHEHHQZHLJKWHGE\WKHVWDWHSRSXODWLRQ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    50/75

    7DEOHD

    $UUHVW5DWHVE\6LQJOH

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    51/75

    &RHIIL.LHQWVLQEROGVWDQGDUGHUURUVEHORZDUHUHODWLYH.KDQJHVLQDJHVSH.LIL.DUUHVWUDWHVIRUELUWK.RK

    UHSHDOVWDWHV7KHRPLWWHG.DWHJRU\LVWKHELUWK.RKRUW$OOVSH.LIL.DWLRQVLQ.OXGHIL[HGHIIH.WVI

    VWDWHDVZHOODVDJHDQG\HDURIELUWK6WDQGDUGHUURUVKDYHEHHQDGMXVWHGIRULQWUD.ODVV.RUUHODWLRQZLWK.HOOV$OOUHJUHVVLRQVKDYHEHHQZHLJKWHGE\WKHVWDWHSRSXODWLRQ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    52/75

    7DEOHE

    0XUGHU9L.WLPL]DWLRQDQG2IIHQGLQJ5DWHVE\$JH%LUWK&RKRUWVDQG5HSHDODQG1R 0XUGHU9L.WLPL]DWLRQ6WDWHRI

    5HVLGHQ.H

    0XUGHU2IIHQGLQJ5DWHV 0XUGHU

    %LUWK

    ELUWK.RKRUWV ELUWK.RKRUWV

    $JH

    $JH

    $JH

    $JH

    $JH

    $JH

    $JH

    $JH

    $JH

    $JH

    5VTXDUHDGM 1

    &RHIIL.LHQWVLQEROGVWDQGDUGHUURUVEHORZDUHUHODWLYH.KDQJHVLQDJHVSH.LIL.DUUHVWUDWHVIRUELUWK.RK

    UHSHDOVWDWHV7KHRPLWWHG.DWHJRU\LVWKHELUWK.RKRUW$OOVSH.LIL.DWLRQVLQ.OXGHIL[HGHIIH.WVI

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    53/75

    VWDWHDVZHOODVDJHDQG\HDURIELUWK6WDQGDUGHUURUVKDYHEHHQDGMXVWHGIRULQWUD.ODVV.RUUHODWLRQZLWK

    .HOOV$OOUHJUHVVLRQVKDYHEHHQZHLJKWHGE\WKHVWDWHSRSXODWLRQ

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    54/75

    7DEOH

    'LIIHUHQ.HLQGLIIHUHQ.H(VWLPDWHVRI5HODWLYH&KDQJHVLQ)HUWLOLW\5DWHV$PRQJ7HHQV

    DQG$OO:RPHQLQ5HSHDODQG1RQUHSHDO6WDWHV

    &KDQJHLQ/Q)HUWLOLW\5DWHVLQ5HSHDOYV1RQUHSHDOVWDWHV

    7HHQV

    5HODWLYHWR

    $OOZRPHQ

    5HODWLYHWR

    7KHGLIIHUHQ.HLQGLIIHUHQ.HVDUHDVIROORZV/Q)5MWUHSHDO/Q)5MUHSHDO/RJ)5MWQRQUHSHDO/Q

    )5MQRQUHSHDOZKHUH)5MWLVWKHIHUWLOLW\UDWHRIDJHJURXSMLQ\HDUWDQG/QLVWKHQDWXUDOORJDULWKP

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    55/75

    7DEOH

    5HODWLYH&KDQJHVLQ$UUHVWDQG+RPL.LGH5DWHVDPRQJ&RKRUWV([SRVHGWR/HJDOL]HG$ERUWLRQ

    EHWZHHQDV&RPSDUHGWR&RKRUWV8QH[SRVHGEHWZHHQLQ5HSHDODQG

    1RQUHSHDO6WDWHV

    &ULPH

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    56/75

    6WDQGDUGHUURUVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVHV$OOVSH.LIL.DWLRQVLQ.OXGHVWDWHIL[HGHIIH.WVDQGVWDQGDUGHUURUVKDYHEHHQ

    DGMXVWHGIRU.OXVWHULQJZLWKLQVWDWHDQG\HDURIELUWK,QHD.K.ROXPQ.RKRUWVIURPWKH\RXQJHUDJHJURXSZHQWIURP

    XQH[SRVHGWRH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQLQXWHUREHWZHHQWKHROGHUDJHJURXSLQHD.K.ROXPQLV

    IURPWKHRUELUWK.RKRUWDQGZDVXQH[SRVHGWROHJDOL]HGDERUWLRQGXULQJWKLVSHULRG7KHUHDUHSRWHQWLDOO\

    REVHUYDWLRQVJLYHQGDWDE\DJH\HDURIELUWKDQGVWDWH'XHWRPLVVLQJGDWDRU]HURKRPL.LGHVD.WXDOVDPSOH

    VL]HVYDU\IURPIRUDUUHVWUDWHVIRUYLROHQWDQGSURSHUW\.ULPHWRIRUPXUGHUDUUHVWUDWHV9L.WLPL]DWLRQ5LV

    IRUKRPL.LGHYL.WLPL]DWLRQE\VWDWHRIUHVLGHQ.HDQG9L.WLPL]DWLRQ%LVIRUKRPL.LGHYL.WLPL]DWLRQE\VWDWHRIELUWK

    S

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    57/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    58/75

    7DEOH

    5HODWLYH&KDQJHVLQ+RPL.LGH5DWHVZLWK5HVSH.WWR5HODWLYH&KDQJHVLQ/DJJHG)HUWLOLW\

    5DWHV$PRQJ7HHQVDQGHTXDWLRQLQWH[W@6WDQGDUGHUURUVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVHV7KHIHUWLOLW\UDWHLVODJJHG\HDUVIRUWHHQKRPL.LGHDQG\HDUVIRU\RXQJDGXOWKRPL.LGH0RGHOVLQ.OXGH.RQWUROVIRU

    SULVRQHUVSROL.HLQ.RPHSRYHUW\$)'&JHQHURVLW\.RQ.HDOHGJXQODZVDQGEHHUWD[DVLQ

    'RQRKXHDQG/HYLWW$OOPRGHOVLQ.OXGHVWDWHDQG\HDUIL[HGHIIH.WV5HJUHVVLRQVDUHZHLJKWHGE\WKHUD.HVSH.LIL.SRSXODWLRQWR\HDUVRIDJH

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    59/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    60/75

    Figure 1

    Fertil ity and Abortion Rates for Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal

    Fertility rate NR

    Fertility rate R

    Abortion ra

    Abortion rate R

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79

    Year

    BirthorAbortions/women15-44

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    61/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    62/75

    Figure 2c

    Ln Violent Crime Arrrest Rates for 20 & 21 Year Olds by Birth

    Cohort and Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal States (NR)

    21_NR

    21_R

    20_NR

    20_R

    1.6

    1.9

    2.2

    2.5

    2.8

    68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79

    Birth Cohort

    LnArrestsper1000

    Figure 2d

    Ln Violent Crime Arrrest Rates for 22 & 23 Year Olds by Birth Cohort

    and Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal States (NR)

    22_NR

    22_R

    23_NR

    23_R

    0.6

    1.1

    1.6

    2.1

    2.6

    3.1

    68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79

    Birth Cohort

    LnArrestper1000

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    63/75

    Figure 3a

    Ln Property Crime Arrrest Rates for 16 & 17 Year Olds by Birth Cohort

    and Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal States (NR)

    16_NR

    16_R

    17_NR

    17_R

    3.30

    3.35

    3.40

    3.45

    3.50

    3.55

    3.60

    3.65

    3.70

    68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79

    Birth Cohort

    LnArrestsper1000

    Figure 3b

    Ln Property Crime Arrest Rates for 18 & 19 Year Olds by Birth Cohort

    and Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal States (NR)

    18_NR

    18_R

    19_NR

    19_R

    2.80

    2.90

    3.00

    3.10

    3.20

    3.30

    3.40

    3.50

    3.60

    68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79

    Birth Cohort

    Arrestsper1000

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    64/75

    Figure 3c

    Ln Property Crime Arrrest Rates for 20 & 21 Year Olds by Birth Cohort

    and Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal States (NR)

    21_NR

    21_R

    20_NR

    20_R

    2.60

    2.70

    2.80

    2.90

    3.00

    3.10

    3.20

    3.30

    68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79

    Birth Cohort

    LnArrestsper1000

    Figure 3d

    Ln Property Crime Arrrest Rates for 22 & 23 Year Olds by Birth Cohort

    and Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal States (NR)

    22_NR

    22_R

    23_NR

    23_R

    2.40

    2.50

    2.60

    2.70

    2.80

    2.90

    3.00

    3.10

    68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79

    Birth Cohort

    LnArrestsper1000

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    65/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    66/75

    Figure 4c

    Ln Murder Arrrest Rates for 20 & 21 Year Olds by Birth Cohort and

    Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal States (NR)

    21_NR

    21_R

    20_NR

    20_R

    2.80

    2.90

    3.00

    3.10

    3.20

    3.30

    3.40

    3.50

    3.603.70

    3.80

    3.90

    68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79

    Birth Cohort

    Ln

    Arrestsper10000

    0

    Figure 4d

    Ln Murder Arrrest Rates for 22 & 23 Year Olds by Birth Cohort and

    Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal States (NR)

    22_NR

    22_R

    23_NR

    23_R

    2.90

    3.00

    3.10

    3.20

    3.30

    3.40

    3.50

    3.60

    3.70

    3.80

    68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79Birth Cohort

    LnArrestsper100000

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    67/75

    Figure 5a

    Ln Murder Victimiation Rates by State of Residence for 16 & 17 Year

    Olds by Birth Cohort and Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal States (NR)

    16_NR

    16_R

    17_NR

    17_R

    0.40

    0.90

    1.40

    1.90

    2.40

    2.90

    3.40

    3.90

    68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79Birth Cohort

    LnArrestsper100000

    Figure 5b

    Ln Murder Victimization Rates by State of Residence for 18 & 19 Year

    Olds by Birth Cohort and Repeal (R) and Non-Repeal States (NR)

    18_NR

    18_R

    19_NR

    19_R

    2.00

    2.20

    2.40

    2.60

    2.80

    3.00

    3.20

    3.40

    3.60

    3.80

    68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79

    Birth Cohort

    LnArrestsper100000

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    68/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    69/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    70/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    71/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    72/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    73/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    74/75

  • 7/29/2019 Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime Joyce2001

    75/75