Diamond Dollars Case Competition Presentation 11-10-15

The 2015 Free Agent Pitching

MarketDiamond Dollars Case Competition

Columbia 2015

Syracuse UniversityWillie Kniesner | Brandon Lane | Olivia Lavelle

Jeremy Losak | Evan Weiss

Table of Contents1.Methodology2.Player Pages3.Final Rankings 4.Contracts and Years Pre Qualifying Offer5.After The Qualifying Offer6.After Accounting For Market Depth

Methodology

Definitions

• fWAR used in all references of WAR. Steamer used for all WAR projections of 2015 FA.

• Aging Curve: -0.4 WAR per year

• FA Score:

ARaWeightedWwWAR

AgeaAge )(

Value Modely = Value Variable

x1 = Projected WAR Per Season x2 = Agex3 = Qualifying Offerx4 = Past Injuriesx5 = Pitches Thrown In The Majorsx6 = Pitches Thrown/Season x7 = Consistency Variable (season to season)

Value Variable:• 1-10 rating where the higher

the rating, the better you are compared to the other individuals on this list.

• Model uses free agents who made over $10M AAV dating back to 2010.

• $10M cutoff to analyze a subset of top quality free agents.



Projected WAR Per Season• WAR per season throughout

the contract. • For 2015 FA, Steamer WAR

used. 0.4 WAR is subtracted per projected year of the contract.

• For previous year FA where projected Steamer WAR is not available, projected WAR is calculated as part of a projection model using the two previous season WARs.



Age:• Age entering the season you

signed the contract.



Qualifying Offer:• Yes/No variable. • For players under the Type A/B

FA, Yes/No dummy variable if the player was designated a Type A FA.

• For 2015 FA:• Average free agent score

calculated for all free agents 2010-2014 receiving a qualifying offer.

• A free agent that has a FA Score greater than one standard deviation below the mean is projected to receive a qualifying offer for this analysis.



Past Injuries:• Yes/No variable used to

determine if a player has a history of chronic injuries.

• Player has the same injury two times in a three year span prior to free agency.



Pitches Thrown:• Used to measure mileage on

arm leading up to free agency. • Pitches thrown measures total

mileage while pitches thrown per season measures how much of a workhorse that player is.

• Total pitches only available since 2002.

• Pitches thrown per season only includes player seasons with at least 15 starts.



Consistency:• WAR Variance between seasons.• How consistent is a player? Do

you know what you’re going to get?

Player Profiles

Value Score 8.82Projected WAR

3.7 (1)

Age 30Qualifying Offer

No

Injury Risk NoPitches Thrown In Majors

22,725 (10)

Pitches Thrown/Season

2,840 (2)

Consistency 2.79 (13)The Good:

• Consistent workhorse

• Multiple Top Pitches

• High K’s low BB’s

The Bad?:• Mileage? • The Price Tag

David Price


1.9 (7)


No

Injury Risk YesPitches Thrown In Majors

22,785 (11)


2,848 (1)

Consistency 1.82 (8)

The Good:• Consistently top pitcher• Top production for

relatively lower contract

The Bad?:• Delivery raises health

questions• Kansas City Struggles?

Johnny Cueto

Zack Greinke


3.0 (2)


Yes


33,193 (14)


2,766 (5)


The Good:• Command makes

up for average velocity

• Has elite movement on his pitches

• Limits baserunners and contact

• He can hit

The Bad?:• Wrong side of 30

long-term contract

• Will continuing decrease in velocity be an issue down the line?

Jordan Zimmermann


1.8 (8)


Yes


16,794 (7)


2,399 (8)

Consistency 1.22 (7)The Good:• No lingering effects

from 2009 Tommy John surgery

• Low BB%• Fastball sets up

breaking pitches

The Bad:• Fastball was not

particularly effective last season


2.1 (4)


Yes

Injury Risk YesPitches Thrown In Majors

10,930 (2)


1,561 (13)


Name Team ERA FIP GB% K% BB% HR/FBJaime Garcia Cardinals 2.43 3.00 61.20% 19.00% 5.90% 7.10%Dallas Keuchel Astros 2.48 2.91 61.70% 23.70% 5.60% 13.60%

Jaime Garcia

The Good:• Low risk/high reward• Lives and dies (but

mostly lives) on the ground ball

• Slider as a potential out pitch

The Bad:• Injury history• Waiting for a

complete season


1.7 (9)


Yes


11,316 (3)


2829 (3)


Wei-Yin Chen

The Good:• CONSISTENT

The Bad:• CONSISTENT


2.9 (3)


Yes


9428 (1)


2357 (9)


Hisashi Iwakuma

The Good:• Consistently above

average pitcher• Finesse stuff• Lowest BB% on

this list

The Bad:• Age (but with

low MLB mileage)

• High contact percentage against


1.6 (11)


Yes


15,907 (5)


1,988 (11)

Consistency 0.49 (4)Jeff Samardzija

The Good:• Workhorse• Four pitches, each with

above average movement and velocity

• Clear value The Bad:• Significant decrease in K%• Allows plenty of HRs


1.4 (12)


No


16,277 (6)


2,713 (6)

Consistency 0.27 (3)The Good:• Age• Low mileage on

arm• ConsistentThe Bad:• Too much contact• Low strikeouts• Low Velocity

Mike Leake


0.9 (13)


Yes


24,992 (12)


2,777 (4)


The Good:• All of his pitches

have above average movement

The Bad:• K% decreasing• Allowing plenty of

baserunners

Yovani Gallardo

Yovani Gallardo

The Good:• All of his pitches

have above average movement

The Bad:• K% decreasing• Allowing plenty of

baserunners


0.9 (13)


Yes


24,992 (12)


2,777 (4)


Bottom Four: Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada

Scott Kazmir

Ian Kennedy

J.A. Happ Marco Estrada

Value Score 5.46 5.38 4.16 3.48Projected WAR 2.1 (6) 2.1 (5) 1.6 (10) 0.2 (14)Age 32 31 33 32Qualifying Offer No Yes No NoInjury Risk No No No NoPitches Thrown In Majors

26,835 (13) 20,469 (9) 17,643 (8) 11,866 (4)


2,440 (7) 2,274 (10) 1,960 (12) 1,483 (14)

Consistency 0.16 (2) 2.60 (11) 0.83 (6) 1.94 (10)

Rankings And Contract Projections

Final Player Rankings1.David Price (8.82)2. Johnny Cueto (8.44)3.Zack Greinke (8.31)4. Jordan Zimmermann (7.13)5. Jaime Garcia (6.95)6.Wei-Yin Chen (6.861)7.Hisashi Iwakuma (6.857)

8. Jeff Samardzija (5.98)9.Mike Leake (5.87)10. Yovani Gallardo (5.72)11. Scott Kazmir (5.46)12. Ian Kennedy (5.38)13. J.A. Happ (4.16)14. Marco Estrada (3.48)

Initial Contract Projections

Rank

Name Years

Total Dollars

AAV

8 Jeff Samardzija

4 $78.0 M $19.5 M

9 Mike Leake 3 $42.0 M $14.0 M

10 Yovani Gallardo

3 $45.0 M $15.0 M

11 Scott Kazmir 3 $49.5 M $16.5 M

12 Ian Kennedy 2 $22.0 M $11.0 M

13 J.A. Happ 3 $39.0 M $13.0 M

14 Marco Estrada

2 $15.0 M $7.5 M

Rank

Name Years

Total Dollars

AAV

1 David Price 7 $227.5 M $32.5 M

2 Johnny Cueto 5 $115.0 M $23.0 M

3 Zack Greinke 6 $165.0 M $27.5 M

4 Jordan Zimmermann

5 $122.5 M $24.5 M

5 Jaime Garcia 2 $23.0 M $11.5 M

6 Wei-Yin Chen 4 $66.0 M $16.5 M

7 Hisashi Iwakuma 3 $43.5 M $14.5 M

Contract Projections After Qualifying Offer

Rank

Name Years

Total Dollars

AAV

8 Jeff Samardzija

4 $76.0 M $19.0 M

9 Mike Leake 3 $42.0 M $14.0 M

10 Yovani Gallardo

3 $42.0 M $14.0 M

11 Scott Kazmir 3 $49.5 M $16.5 M

12 Ian Kennedy 2 $20.0 M $10.0 M

13 J.A. Happ 3 $39.0 M $13.0 M

14 Marco Estrada

2 $15.0 M $7.5 M

Rank

Name Years

Total Dollars

AAV

1 David Price 7 $227.5 M $32.5 M

2 Johnny Cueto 5 $115.0 M $23.0 M

3 Zack Greinke 6 $162.0 M $27.0 M

4 Jordan Zimmermann

5 $120.0 M $24.0 M


6 Wei-Yin Chen 4 $63.5 M $16.0 M

7 Hisashi Iwakuma 3 $42.0 M $14.0 M

Contract Projections After Market Depth

Rank

Name Years

Total Dollars

AAV

8 Jeff Samardzija

4 $68.0 M $17.0 M

9 Mike Leake 3 $39.75 M $13.25 M

10 Yovani Gallardo

3 $39.75 M $13.25 M

11 Scott Kazmir 3 $45.75 M $15.25 M

12 Ian Kennedy 2 $19.0 M $9.5 M13 J.A. Happ 3 $38.25 M $12.75

M14 Marco

Estrada2 $15.0 M $7.5 M

Rank

Name Years

Total Dollars

AAV

1 David Price 7 $196.0 M $28.0 M

2 Johnny Cueto 5 $105.0 M $21.0 M

3 Zack Greinke 6 $141.0 M $23.5 M

4 Jordan Zimmermann

5 $106.25 M $21.25 M


6 Wei-Yin Chen 4 $61.0 M $15.25 M

7 Hisashi Iwakuma 3 $39.75 M $13.25 M 8586.0)(

WARpaWeightedawWAR

aAgepaAge

Change In Contract AAV After Adjustments

• David Price $32.5 M $28.0 M• Johnny Cueto $23.0 M $21.0 M• Zack Greinke $27.5 M $23.5 M• Jordan Zimmermann $24.5 M $21.25 M• Jaime Garcia $11.5 M $10.0 M• Wei-Yin Chen $16.5 M $15.25 M• Hisashi Iwakuma $14.5 M

$13.25 M

• Jeff Samardzija $19.5 M $17.0 M

• Mike Leake $14.0 M $13.25 M• Yovani Gallardo $15.0 M

$13.25 M • Scott Kazmir $16.5 M $15.25 M• Ian Kennedy $11.0 M $9.5 M • J.A. Happ $13.0 M $12.75 M• Marco Estrada $7.5 M $7.5 M

Any Questions?

Documents

Diamond Dollars Case Competition Presentation 11-10-15