DIAL-IN INFORMATION: 855-831-5534, Access Code … · Natural Gas Hedges and Interest Rate Swaps 5 of 29. ... (Bear Stearns Swaps) ARP 2011A1 (6,382,854) ... Source Actual Budget

TO: FMPA Executive Committee FROM: Mark Larson/Jim Arntz DATE: December 29, 2016 RE: Executive Committee Telephonic Rate Workshop Monday, January 9, 2017 at 2:00PM PLACE: Florida Municipal Power Agency, 8553 Commodity Circle, Orlando, FL

1st Floor Conference Room, Orlando, Florida

DIAL-IN INFORMATION: 855-831-5534, Access Code 13254# (If you have trouble connecting via phone, please call 407-355-7767)

Chairman Howard McKinnon, Presiding

AGENDA 1. Call to Order and Roll Call 2. Information Items:

a. Natural Gas Markets Update b. Liquidity Update c. Pool Operations Update for December d. Overview of December Loads e. Review of December Costs f. Review of December ARP Rate Calculation g. Estimated Rate Ranges for January 2017 – February 2017

3. Member Comments

4. Adjournment

The participants in the above referenced public meeting will conduct the public meeting by telephone, via a telephone conference hookup. There will be a speaker telephone made available for any interested person to attend this public meeting and be fully informed of the discussions taking place by telephone conference hookup at FMPA’s headquarters, located at 8553 Commodity Circle, Orlando, Florida 32819-9002. If anyone chooses to appeal any decision that may be made at this public meeting, such person will need a record of the proceedings and should accordingly ensure that a verbatim record of the proceedings is made, which includes the oral statements and evidence upon which such appeal is based. This public meeting may be continued to a date and time certain, which will be announced at the meeting. Any person requiring a special accommodation to participate in this public meeting because of a disability, should contact FMPA at (407) 355-7767 or 1-(888)-774-7606, at least two (2) business days in advance to make appropriate arrangements. Any interested person may contact FMPA for more information on this public meeting by calling (850) 297-2011 or (877) 297-2012 or writing to: Open Government Law Compliance Coordinator, Florida Municipal Power Agency, 2061-2 Delta Way, Post Office Box 3209, Tallahassee, Florida 32315-3209.

December 2016

Rate Calculation Highlights

Natural Gas Prices

Natural gas prices during December were very volatile and trended up during the month. As a result the Energy rate is $3.65 higher than anticipated last month. The forward price for natural gas as of 1/5/2017 has decreased from the forward curve of 12/5/2016, which reduces expected energy rates for February and beyond, however, January’s expected energy rate is still expected to increase due to locking in 50% of January’s gas supply at first of the month prices.

Monthly Resource Stack

During December Cane Island 2 was on outage for maintenance. Lakeland Mac 5 unit completed its forced outage and returned to service in mid‐December.

Net pool sales were about 94,000 MWh lower than budget due to the forced loading of the coal units for water management at Stanton Energy Center. Cane Island 3 was cycled off mid‐month due to pool load conditions and did not return to service in order to reduce excessive cycling of units.

FMPA was a seller to our pool partners 627 of 744 hours. CHP Prices ranged from a high of $44.15 per MWh to a low of $19.03 per MWh and averaged $24.34 per MWh.

Monthly Loads and billing determinants

December was warmer than normal but did not drive significant air conditioning load. The ARP peak was about 3.5% over budget due to more cooling load on a couple days during the month, while energy sales were 3.4% lower than expected.

ARP cost variances – budget to actual

The ARP is about 10% under budget for the first two months of the new fiscal year. This was largely due to purchasing less gas than anticipated in the budget due to pool sales being lower than expected, plant maintenance costs being less than anticipated and direct charges starting out low in the first months.

Cash positon and rate calculation

ARP O&M cash amounted to $67,687,087 or an estimated 54 days of cash. The decrease in the number of days of available cash is primarily due to the normal fall cash push back and an increased cash requirement due to the rise in the forward price of natural gas. As a result rates are set using a 58% confidence level for fuel pricing which calculates a demand rate of $21.62 per kw month, an energy rate of $23.59 per MWh, and a transmission rate of $2.72 per kw month.

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1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

Apr16

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan18

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Natural Gas Price in 2017 Budget Compared to CurrentDecember 2016

6/2/2016 ‐ Budget

Contract Close

12/5/2016

1/5/2017

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2.000

2.200

2.400

2.600

2.800

3.000

3.200

3.400

3.600

3.800

4.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Daily FMPA Gas PriceDecember 2016

Daily FMPA Gas Price ‐ $/Mmbtu FMPP Dispatch Gas Price FGU Average Gas Price for Month

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Collateral Posting Required & Lines of Credit

All-Requirements Project

Close of Business

12/30/2016

$ Market Value

of Positions

$ Margin / Posting

Threshold

$ Collateral

Posting Required

FGU / NewEdge (Storage Agreement) Gas Hedges -

NewEdge Natural Gas Hedges - 0 0

-

JPMorgan Natural Gas Hedges (674,215) (10,000,000) -

Interest Rate Swaps (51,402,182) (220,000,000) -

Total Posting Required 0

Required Collateral Postings:

Funded with draws on Lines of Credit

Funded with use of ARP O&M Cash & Investments 0

Potential funding from ARP O&M Cash & Investments if notified 0

Total Posting Funded (1) 0

JPMorgan Line of Credit 75,000,000

Wells Fargo Line of Credit 25,000,000

$ Lines of Credit - Total 100,000,000

JPMorgan Draw for Discount Pricing 5,000,000

Draws for Collateral Posting 0

Uses of Lines of Credit 5,000,000

$ Lines of Credit - Available, net 95,000,000

Benchmarks:

Prompt month Natural Gas $ Price: 3.57

(1) Represents potential posting liability. However, not required to move funds until $1,000,000 (per Swap) over threshold.

Natural Gas Hedges and Interest Rate Swaps

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INTEREST RATE SWAPS

Bond Swap Credit Credit Posting

Counterparty Issue MTM Available Used Required

Bank of America / Merrill Lynch #2 ARP 2008C (5,631,617) (32,000,000) (5,631,617) 0

Goldman Sachs ARP 2008C (5,640,618) (16,000,000) (5,640,618) 0

JP Chase #1 ARP 2011A 1 & B (5,427,293)

ARP 2011A 1 & B (1,776,450)

ARP 2008C (427,383) (34,000,000) (7,631,126) 0

JP Chase #2 (Bear Stearns Swaps) ARP 2011A1 (6,382,854)

ARP 2008C (3,191,427)

ARP 2008C (34,979) (60,000,000) (9,609,260) 0

Morgan Stanley ARP 2008C (5,506,877) (32,000,000) (5,506,877) 0

UBS AG ARP 2008C (2,126,675) (10,000,000) (2,126,675) 0

Wells Fargo ARP 2011 A2 (10,415,474) 0

ARP 2008C (4,840,535) (36,000,000) (15,256,009)

(51,402,182) (220,000,000) (51,402,182) 0

Benchmarks Prompt NG

12/30/2016 February is Prompt Month 3.568

12/23/2016 3.735

12/16/2016 3.353

12/9/2016 3.567

12/2/2016 3.471

11/25/2016 January is Prompt Month 3.255

11/18/2016 2.898

11/11/2016 2.667

11/4/2016 2.848

10/28/2016 December is Prompt Month 3.150

10/21/2016 3.007

10/14/2016 3.260

10/7/2016 3.194

9/30/2016 November is Prompt Month 2.905

9/23/2016 2.949

9/16/2016 2.956

9/9/2016 2.820

9/2/2016 October is Prompt Month 2.764

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Source Actual Budget Variance

Contracts 2,286 0 2,286Nuclear 26,871 26,784 87Coal 102,379 45,909 56,470Large Combined Cycle Units 391,300 570,013 (178,713)Small Combined Cycle Units 0 0 0Peakers 568 347 221Pool Purchase 8,704 0 8,704Pool (Sale) (95,426) (189,896) 94,470

Off Line Auxiliaries (951) (800) (151)Share of KUA Transmission Losses (185) (836) 651SEC Transformer Losses (1,134) (505) (629)Inadvertent (141) 0 (141)Non Member Sales (3,121) 0 (3,121)Transmission Losses (9,665) (11,638) 1,973

421,485 439,378 (17,893)

FMPA All-Requirements ProjectResource StackDecember 2016

MWH

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16,000

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20,000

22,000

MW

MW

HFMPA - ARP December 2016 Daily and Hourly Loads

Preliminary Information - Subject to Change - Does not Include CROD Loadas of December 31st

December 5, HE 19 821 MW

Budgeted Peak 792 MWDaily Loads

December 2016Daily LoadsDecember 2015

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December 2016Number of days in month for Load Factor Calculation 31 Member Energy Demand Co-Incident Peak Time Load Factor Resource Energy Demand

BSH 12/1/2016 1,737,531 3,173 12/5/16 7:00 PM 73.60% CLW St. Lucie 1,452,000 1,984CLW 12/1/2016 7,849,958 15,639 12/5/16 7:00 PM 67.47% FTP St. Lucie 10,012,000 13,699FTM 12/1/2016 3,029,200 6,575 12/5/16 7:00 PM 61.92% GCS St. Lucie 1,154,000 1,583FTP 12/1/2016 42,330,837 80,052 12/5/16 7:00 PM 71.07% JXB St. Lucie 4,828,857 6,602GCS 12/1/2016 8,142,983 14,840 12/5/16 7:00 PM 73.75% KUA St. Lucie 6,084,000 8,473HVA 12/1/2016 1,904,536 2,830 12/5/16 7:00 PM 90.45% LBG St. Lucie 1,532,531 2,095JXB 12/1/2016 51,102,368 100,956 12/5/16 7:00 PM 68.04% STK St. Lucie 1,465,000 1,995KUA 12/1/2016 111,658,152 229,684 12/5/16 7:00 PM 65.34% NBY St. Lucie 121,232 166KWS 12/1/2016 60,963,644 107,923 12/5/16 7:00 PM 75.92% FTM St. Lucie 221,380 303LBG 12/1/2016 34,429,636 66,990 12/5/16 7:00 PM 69.08%NBY 12/1/2016 2,611,922 5,107 12/5/16 7:00 PM 68.74% TOTAL 26,871,000 36,900

OCL 12/1/2016 93,580,392 183,966 12/5/16 7:00 PM 68.37%STK 12/1/2016 5,172,830 9,344 12/5/16 7:00 PM 74.41%

Total Net Energy for Load (NEL) 424,513,989 827,079 Excluded Resources (26,871,000) (36,900)

Billing Determinants 397,642,989 790,179

Total Net Energy for Load (NEL) 424,513,989Less CROD NEL (3,029,200)NEL per Resource Stack 421,484,789

mem monthly: mv 90 allrq schedule

Original Budget NEL 439,378,000 799,000Over (Under) Budget (14,864,011) 28,079

Percent Over (Under) Budget -3.38% 3.51%

Member Usage Date Excluded Resources

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Florida Municipal Power AgencyAll-Requirements Project

12/31/16

Reconciled GeneralLedger Balance Total

Operations & Maintenance Fund

O&M Account 72,687,087.25LOC Balance (5,000,000.00)Interest Rate Margin Balance 0.00New Edge Cash Balance 0.00JP Morgan Cash Balance 0.00Capital Expense Transfer 0.00

Total Cash Available for Rate Setting 67,687,087.25

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Actual YTDNovember

Budget YTDNovember

(Over)UnderYTD

Percent(Over) Under

REVENUESDemand Revenues

Demand - Members 34,989 36,650 1,661 4.53%Customer Charge & Other 209 44 (164) (371.13%)Interest Income 917 27 (889) (3235.29%)

Total Demand Revenue 36,115 36,722 607 1.65%

Energy RevenuesEnergy 16,343 17,750 1,407 7.93%Sale of Physical Natural Gas 483 2,000 1,517 75.86%Sale of Interchange Energy 3,201 6,951 3,750 53.96%Other 60 67 6 9.32%

Total Energy Revenue 20,087 26,768 6,681 24.96%

Transmission RevenuesTransmission - Others 3,551 3,297 (254) (7.71%)

- KUA 394 412 18 4.41%Standby Transmission 101 78 (23) (29.57%)Low Voltage Delivery 14 15 1 3.69%Seminole Transmission Agreement 83 83 0.00%

Total Transmission Revenue 4,144 3,885 (259) (6.66%)TOTAL REVENUES 60,346 67,375 7,029 10.43%

ExpensesDemand Cost Centers

Member Capacity 4,777 4,580 (197) (4.29%)Contract Capacity 2,753 2,872 119 4.15%ARP Owned Capacity 7,901 9,143 1,242 13.58%Debt & Capital Leases 19,777 19,730 (47) (0.24%)Direct Charges and Other 2,613 3,644 1,031 28.29%Gas Transportation 5,565 6,560 995 15.17%

Total Demand Expense 43,385 46,529 3,144 6.76%

Energy Cost CentersContract Capacity 260 153 (107) (69.74%)Direct Charges & Other 117 117 0.28%Purchased Power 232 225 (7) (3.02%)Fuels 23,307 28,152 4,845 17.21%

Total Energy Expense 23,916 28,647 4,731 16.52%

Transmission Cost CentersTransmission - Others 3,714 3,626 (88) (2.43%)

- KUA 394 412 18 4.41%Total Transmission Expense 4,108 4,038 (70) (1.73%)

TOTAL EXPENSES 71,408 79,214 7,806 9.85%

NET INCOME BEFORE FAS 71 (11,063) (11,839) (776) 6.56%

1/3/201712:21 PM

Florida Municipal Power AgencyAll-Requirements Project

Statement of Revenues, Expenses, & Changes in Fund Net AssetsFor the Two Months Ending Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Whole Thousands (US$)

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0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

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Oct‐16 Nov‐16 Dec‐16 Jan‐17 Feb‐17 Mar‐17 Apr‐17 May‐17 Jun‐17 Jul‐17 Aug‐17 Sep‐17

MWH

ARP Net Energy for Load Energy ‐ Budget & Actual

Monthly Budget MWH Monthly Actual MWH Cumulative Budget MWH Cumulative Actual MWH

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

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1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Oct‐16 Nov‐16 Dec‐16 Jan‐17 Feb‐17 Mar‐17 Apr‐17 May‐17 Jun‐17 Jul‐17 Aug‐17 Sep‐17

KW

ARP Net Energy for Load Coincident Peak ‐ Budget & Actual

Monthly Budget kW Monthly Actual kW Cumulative Budget kW Cumulative Actual kW

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Line #Actual / Forecast Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

1 Demand Rate2 Member Capacity 2,545 2,545 2,545 2,538 2,538 2,538 2,388 2,388 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,3673 Contract Capacity 1,357 1,357 1,357 1,361 1,287 1,540 1,376 1,376 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,600 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,824 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,4044 ARP Owned Capacity 3,602 4,228 3,033 3,243 3,935 3,935 4,118 3,783 4,247 4,143 4,397 4,177 4,458 4,508 4,158 4,175 4,517 4,137 4,202 4,747 4,165 4,059 4,305 4,093 4,377 4,420 4,074 4,093 4,434 4,0735 Debt 11,172 11,452 11,470 7,763 7,586 7,290 9,512 10,265 10,908 9,865 9,865 10,238 9,865 9,865 10,238 9,865 9,865 10,313 9,865 9,865 10,905 9,865 9,865 10,235 9,865 9,865 10,235 9,865 9,865 10,3106 Direct Charges & Other 1,546 1,482 1,456 1,946 1,784 2,198 1,491 1,122 1,912 1,761 1,806 1,906 1,758 1,825 1,934 1,779 1,840 1,932 1,934 1,907 2,012 1,862 1,908 2,009 1,863 1,931 2,042 1,888 1,950 2,0487 Gas Transportation 2,664 2,812 2,979 3,119 3,199 2,617 3,000 2,565 3,329 3,332 2,968 2,892 3,080 3,599 3,595 3,699 3,726 3,396 3,038 3,040 3,047 3,329 3,008 2,673 3,146 3,610 3,497 3,731 3,690 3,60189 Non-Rate Revenue (824) (452) (859) (69) (510) 2,066 (574) (552) (36) (35) (35) (35) (35) (36) (37) (37) (37) (38) (35) (35) (36) (35) (35) (35) (36) (36) (37) (37) (37) (38)

10 Total Demand Costs 22,062 23,424 21,981 19,901 19,819 22,184 21,311 20,947 24,037 22,743 22,678 22,855 22,803 23,438 23,565 23,158 23,588 23,417 22,971 23,295 23,864 22,851 22,822 23,166 22,986 23,561 23,582 23,311 23,673 23,765111213 Energy Rate14 Member Capacity 5 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 015 Contract Capacity 93 201 480 846 390 248 198 62 49 49 51 67 56 89 80 50 50 95 142 62 63 49 49 144 52 74 72 49 52 10716 Direct Charges & Other 58 58 58 58 58 58 0 117 58 59 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 5817 Purchased Power 270 127 (144) 1,210 1,265 391 196 36 51 71 109 59 247 56 60 60 115 134 152 52 68 62 57 266 216 50 65 386 187 4918 Fuels 8,405 9,502 13,755 16,698 15,327 13,597 12,015 11,292 13,424 18,130 14,188 14,626 15,356 18,744 19,934 21,027 21,657 18,487 16,232 15,438 17,290 18,791 16,118 14,604 15,113 16,956 17,156 19,716 19,089 17,6141920 Non-Rate Revenue (2,071) (1,794) (2,403) (2,407) (2,902) (292) (747) (2,997) (2,141) (5,308) (4,377) (3,510) (3,424) (5,006) (4,155) (4,001) (4,167) (3,587) (2,626) (4,282) (4,084) (4,901) (4,737) (2,820) (4,154) (4,686) (3,640) (4,373) (3,753) (4,082)21 Total Energy Costs 6,760 8,099 11,753 16,405 14,138 14,002 11,662 8,510 11,441 13,001 10,029 11,300 12,294 13,941 15,977 17,195 17,713 15,187 13,959 11,328 13,395 14,060 11,545 12,252 11,286 12,452 13,711 15,837 15,633 13,7462223 Transmission Rate24 Transmission 2,022 2,091 2,968 2,481 2,568 2,270 1,956 1,758 1,712 2,153 2,026 1,708 1,812 2,023 2,210 2,202 2,285 2,127 2,024 1,715 1,770 2,219 2,090 1,765 1,872 2,086 2,251 2,243 2,327 2,16525 Transmission - KUA 255 197 197 186 197 197 197 197 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 22726 Non-Rate Revenue (101) (101) (102) (102) (102) (101) (100) (99) (88) (91) (91) (88) (88) (89) (90) (90) (90) (90) (89) (87) (88) (91) (91) (88) (88) (89) (90) (90) (90) (90)27 Total Transmission 2,176 2,187 3,063 2,565 2,663 2,366 2,053 1,856 1,830 2,268 2,141 1,826 1,930 2,140 2,326 2,318 2,401 2,243 2,162 1,855 1,909 2,355 2,226 1,904 2,011 2,224 2,388 2,380 2,464 2,302282930 Total Costs 30,998 33,710 36,797 38,871 36,620 38,552 35,026 31,313 37,308 38,012 34,848 35,981 37,027 39,519 41,868 42,671 43,702 40,847 39,092 36,478 39,168 39,266 36,593 37,322 36,283 38,237 39,681 41,528 41,770 39,8133132 60 Day Cash Amount 64,708 70,507 75,668 75,491 75,172 73,578 66,339 68,621 75,320 72,860 70,829 73,008 76,546 81,387 84,539 86,373 84,549 79,939 75,570 75,646 78,434 75,859 73,915 73,605 74,520 77,918 81,209 83,298 81,583 79,2233334 Cash Balance 57,375 58,607 60,071 63,311 71,027 82,504 82,687 73,686 67,687 69,603 70,464 70,546 71,093 72,229 74,247 76,733 79,333 80,899 80,622 79,259 78,396 78,406 77,732 76,878 76,167 75,819 76,281 77,464 79,028 79,7903536 Days Cash on Hand 53.2 49.9 47.6 50.3 56.7 67.3 74.8 64.4 53.9 57.3 59.7 58.0 55.7 53.2 52.7 53.3 56.3 60.7 64.0 62.9 60.0 62.0 63.1 62.7 61.3 58.4 56.4 55.8 58.1 60.43738 Rate Schedule Confidence Level 58% 65% 65% 65% 58% 43% 35% 50% 58%3940 Cash True - Up - Est 1,324 2,118 3,833 4,569 2,021 (1,905) (3,193) (494) 1,916 861 82 547 1,136 2,018 2,486 2,600 1,566 (277) (1,363) (863) 10 (674) (854) (711) (348) 462 1,183 1,564 762 (166)41 - To Actual (92) (654) (593) 3,147 9,456 2,088 (5,808) (5,505)42 Cash Change Next Month43 Cash Effect - Billing 1,232 1,464 3,240 7,716 11,477 183 (9,001) (5,999) 1,916 861 82 547 1,136 2,018 2,486 2,600 1,566 (277) (1,363) (863) 10 (674) (854) (711) (348) 462 1,183 1,564 762 (166)4445 Billing Determinants46 Demand 988 1,032 1,181 1,232 1,212 1,077 953 807 790 1,024 987 781 879 1,025 1,122 1,117 1,161 1,072 979 736 770 1,027 989 782 881 1,027 1,124 1,119 1,163 1,07447 Energy 410,755 491,253 560,555 619,338 600,866 535,239 471,957 376,654 397,643 421,138 366,445 398,651 407,367 466,823 520,373 561,499 569,891 502,791 447,822 377,354 413,249 421,764 366,933 389,569 415,505 467,435 521,002 562,437 571,086 515,36448 Transmission Others 728 758 865 905 889 795 683 613 590 783 762 596 655 762 830 829 857 795 725 563 604 784 763 596 655 762 830 829 857 79549 Transmission KUA 288 302 343 354 349 309 298 225 230 268 253 215 255 292 319 317 332 305 283 204 196 269 254 216 256 293 321 318 334 30750 Cost per Unit51 Demand 22.33 22.70 18.61 16.15 16.35 20.60 22.36 25.96 30.43 22.21 22.98 29.26 25.94 22.87 21.00 20.73 20.32 21.84 23.46 31.65 30.99 22.25 23.08 29.62 26.09 22.94 20.98 20.83 20.36 22.1352 Energy 16.46 16.49 20.97 26.49 23.53 26.16 24.71 22.59 28.77 30.87 27.37 28.35 30.18 29.86 30.70 30.62 31.08 30.21 31.17 30.02 32.41 33.34 31.46 31.45 27.16 26.64 26.32 28.16 27.37 26.6753 Transmission Others 2.78 2.76 3.43 2.74 2.89 2.86 2.86 2.87 2.90 2.75 2.66 2.87 2.77 2.65 2.66 2.66 2.67 2.68 2.79 3.05 2.93 2.83 2.74 2.96 2.86 2.74 2.71 2.71 2.72 2.725455 Rate if Cash Effect to Energy56 Demand 22.88 22.74 22.72 21.62 21.69 19.56 19.47 20.37 21.62 23.57 23.19 23.16 24.37 24.66 24.24 23.41 22.60 21.71 21.77 22.25 24.21 25.62 24.68 24.24 25.23 25.32 24.76 23.81 22.95 21.9957 Energy 19.87 20.57 27.54 32.98 26.81 22.73 17.51 22.10 33.59 32.92 27.59 29.72 32.97 34.19 35.48 35.25 33.83 29.65 28.13 27.73 32.44 31.74 29.14 29.63 26.32 27.63 28.59 30.94 28.71 26.3558 Transmission Others 2.34 2.42 2.47 2.69 2.66 2.71 2.74 2.73 2.72 2.73 2.70 2.66 2.66 2.65 2.63 2.61 2.59 2.58 2.66 2.66 2.71 2.72 2.72 2.69 2.72 2.71 2.69 2.67 2.65 2.635960 60% Load Factor All in Rate 78.25 78.81 85.85 89.25 83.18 74.28 68.92 75.57 89.94 93.79 87.53 89.48 95.56 97.41 97.67 95.48 92.15 85.89 84.68 85.39 94.75 97.36 92.57 91.97 91.02 92.53 92.14 92.23 87.97 83.3561 50% Load Factor All in Rate 89.93 90.46 97.51 100.51 94.45 84.59 79.20 86.27 101.21 105.97 99.52 101.43 108.07 110.05 110.11 107.53 103.82 97.13 95.99 96.92 107.21 110.48 105.26 104.44 103.96 105.51 104.86 104.49 99.82 94.7562 70% Load Factor All in Rate 69.91 70.49 77.52 81.21 75.12 66.92 61.58 67.93 81.89 85.10 78.97 80.94 86.62 88.38 88.79 86.88 83.82 77.85 76.60 77.16 85.85 87.98 83.51 83.06 81.78 83.26 83.06 83.48 79.50 75.216364 Shaded Values are Actuals6566 Under (Over) Collected Demand 1,445 1,401 (3,450) (10,185) (16,655) (15,537) (12,781) (8,272) (1,315) (2,710) (2,922) 1,843 3,220 1,384 (2,248) (5,239) (7,893) (7,750) (6,095) 824 6,046 2,582 993 5,203 5,959 3,512 (741) (4,072) (7,091) (6,946)6768 Under (Over) Collected Transmission (578) (422) 308 252 353 368 353 338 355 282 158 195 175 87 27 (23) (50) (65) (55) 75 122 115 37 109 115 43 (31) (92) (125) (144)6970 ARP All in Rate Cost / MWh 75.47 68.62 65.64 62.76 60.95 72.03 74.21 83.13 93.82 90.26 95.10 90.26 90.89 84.66 80.46 75.99 76.68 81.24 87.29 96.67 94.78 93.10 99.73 95.80 87.32 81.80 76.16 73.84 73.14 77.25

20182017

FMPAAll Requirements Project

December 2016 Rate Calculation - FYE 2017 Budget Rates and Rate Projection - Schedule B-1 Methodology - Four Month Spread of Rate/Cost & Liquidity Differences

2016

13 of 29

Line #Actual / Forecast Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

1 Demand Rate2 Member Capacity 2,545 2,545 2,545 2,538 2,538 2,538 2,388 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,290 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,367 2,3673 Contract Capacity 1,357 1,357 1,357 1,361 1,287 1,540 1,376 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,387 1,600 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,824 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,4044 ARP Owned Capacity 3,602 4,228 3,033 3,243 3,935 3,935 4,118 4,859 4,247 4,143 4,397 4,177 4,458 4,508 4,158 4,175 4,517 4,137 4,202 4,747 4,165 4,059 4,305 4,093 4,377 4,420 4,074 4,093 4,434 4,0735 Debt 11,172 11,452 11,470 7,763 7,586 7,290 9,512 9,865 10,908 9,865 9,865 10,238 9,865 9,865 10,238 9,865 9,865 10,313 9,865 9,865 10,905 9,865 9,865 10,235 9,865 9,865 10,235 9,865 9,865 10,3106 Direct Charges & Other 1,546 1,482 1,456 1,946 1,784 2,198 1,491 1,808 1,912 1,761 1,806 1,906 1,758 1,825 1,934 1,779 1,840 1,932 1,934 1,907 2,012 1,862 1,908 2,009 1,863 1,931 2,042 1,888 1,950 2,0487 Gas Transportation 2,664 2,812 2,979 3,119 3,199 2,617 3,000 3,242 3,329 3,332 2,968 2,892 3,080 3,599 3,595 3,699 3,726 3,396 3,038 3,040 3,047 3,329 3,008 2,673 3,146 3,610 3,497 3,731 3,690 3,60189 Non-Rate Revenue (824) (452) (859) (69) (510) 2,066 (574) (35) (36) (35) (35) (35) (35) (36) (37) (37) (37) (38) (35) (35) (36) (35) (35) (35) (36) (36) (37) (37) (37) (38)

10 Total Demand Costs 22,062 23,424 21,981 19,901 19,819 22,184 21,311 23,416 24,037 22,743 22,678 22,855 22,803 23,438 23,565 23,158 23,588 23,417 22,971 23,295 23,864 22,851 22,822 23,166 22,986 23,561 23,582 23,311 23,673 23,765111213 Energy Rate14 Member Capacity 5 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 015 Contract Capacity 93 201 480 846 390 248 198 49 49 49 51 67 56 89 80 50 50 95 142 62 63 49 49 144 52 74 72 49 52 10716 Direct Charges & Other 58 58 58 58 58 58 0 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 58 59 58 5817 Purchased Power 270 127 (144) 1,210 1,265 391 196 40 50 71 123 63 256 58 61 61 115 136 152 52 67 58 56 265 209 48 63 373 186 4818 Fuels 8,405 9,502 13,755 16,698 15,327 13,597 12,015 11,083 16,798 18,101 15,719 15,630 15,768 19,241 20,134 21,378 21,765 18,751 16,245 15,452 16,959 17,724 15,918 14,537 14,772 16,300 16,736 19,206 18,958 17,2571920 Non-Rate Revenue (2,071) (1,794) (2,403) (2,407) (2,902) (292) (747) (2,411) (5,218) (5,308) (4,377) (3,510) (3,424) (5,006) (4,155) (4,001) (4,167) (3,587) (2,626) (4,282) (4,084) (4,901) (4,737) (2,820) (4,154) (4,686) (3,640) (4,373) (3,753) (4,082)21 Total Energy Costs 6,760 8,099 11,753 16,405 14,138 14,002 11,662 8,819 11,737 12,972 11,574 12,308 12,715 14,440 16,178 17,547 17,821 15,453 13,972 11,342 13,063 12,989 11,344 12,184 10,938 11,794 13,289 15,314 15,501 13,3882223 Transmission Rate24 Transmission 2,022 2,091 2,968 2,481 2,568 2,270 1,956 1,660 1,712 2,153 2,026 1,708 1,812 2,023 2,210 2,202 2,285 2,127 2,024 1,715 1,770 2,219 2,090 1,765 1,872 2,086 2,251 2,243 2,327 2,16525 Transmission - KUA 255 197 197 186 197 197 197 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 22726 Non-Rate Revenue (101) (101) (102) (102) (102) (101) (100) (87) (88) (91) (91) (88) (88) (89) (90) (90) (90) (90) (89) (87) (88) (91) (91) (88) (88) (89) (90) (90) (90) (90)27 Total Transmission 2,176 2,187 3,063 2,565 2,663 2,366 2,053 1,779 1,830 2,268 2,141 1,826 1,930 2,140 2,326 2,318 2,401 2,243 2,162 1,855 1,909 2,355 2,226 1,904 2,011 2,224 2,388 2,380 2,464 2,302282930 Total Costs 30,998 33,710 36,797 38,871 36,620 38,552 35,026 34,014 37,604 37,983 36,393 36,989 37,448 40,018 42,069 43,023 43,810 41,113 39,105 36,492 38,836 38,195 36,392 37,254 35,935 37,579 39,259 41,005 41,638 39,4553132 60 Day Cash Amount 64,708 70,507 75,668 75,491 75,172 73,578 69,040 71,618 75,587 74,376 73,382 74,437 77,466 82,087 85,092 86,833 84,923 80,218 75,597 75,328 77,031 74,587 73,646 73,189 73,514 76,838 80,264 82,643 81,093 78,5263334 Cash Balance 57,375 58,607 60,071 63,311 71,027 82,504 82,687 73,686 73,192 73,810 73,960 73,831 73,966 74,695 76,324 78,442 80,705 81,972 81,466 79,883 78,795 78,337 77,345 76,517 75,794 75,312 75,648 76,756 78,334 79,1573536 Days Cash on Hand 53.2 49.9 47.6 50.3 56.7 67.3 71.9 61.7 58.1 59.5 60.5 59.5 57.3 54.6 53.8 54.2 57.0 61.3 64.7 63.6 61.4 63.0 63.0 62.7 61.9 58.8 56.5 55.7 58.0 60.53738 Rate Schedule Confidence Level 58% 65% 65% 65% 58% 43% 35% 50%3940 Cash True - Up - Est 1,324 2,118 3,833 4,569 2,021 (1,905) (3,193) (494) 618 150 (129) 135 729 1,629 2,118 2,263 1,267 (506) (1,583) (1,088) (458) (992) (828) (723) (482) 336 1,108 1,578 823 (185)41 - To Actual (92) (654) (593) 3,147 9,456 2,088 (5,808)42 Cash Change Next Month43 Cash Effect - Billing 1,232 1,464 3,240 7,716 11,477 183 (9,001) (494) 618 150 (129) 135 729 1,629 2,118 2,263 1,267 (506) (1,583) (1,088) (458) (992) (828) (723) (482) 336 1,108 1,578 823 (185)4445 Billing Determinants46 Demand 988 1,032 1,181 1,232 1,212 1,077 953 807 769 1,024 987 781 879 1,025 1,122 1,117 1,161 1,072 979 736 770 1,027 989 782 881 1,027 1,124 1,119 1,163 1,07447 Energy 410,755 491,253 560,555 619,338 600,866 535,239 471,957 376,654 412,592 421,138 366,445 398,651 407,367 466,823 520,373 561,499 569,891 502,791 447,822 377,354 413,249 421,764 366,933 389,569 415,505 467,435 521,002 562,437 571,086 515,36448 Transmission Others 728 758 865 905 889 795 683 613 604 783 762 596 655 762 830 829 857 795 725 563 604 784 763 596 655 762 830 829 857 79549 Transmission KUA 288 302 343 354 349 309 298 225 195 268 253 215 255 292 319 317 332 305 283 204 196 269 254 216 256 293 321 318 334 30750 Cost per Unit51 Demand 22.33 22.70 18.61 16.15 16.35 20.60 22.36 29.02 31.26 22.21 22.98 29.26 25.94 22.87 21.00 20.73 20.32 21.84 23.46 31.65 30.99 22.25 23.08 29.62 26.09 22.94 20.98 20.83 20.36 22.1352 Energy 16.46 16.49 20.97 26.49 23.53 26.16 24.71 23.41 28.45 30.80 31.58 30.87 31.21 30.93 31.09 31.25 31.27 30.73 31.20 30.06 31.61 30.80 30.92 31.28 26.32 25.23 25.51 27.23 27.14 25.9853 Transmission Others 2.78 2.76 3.43 2.74 2.89 2.86 2.86 2.71 2.83 2.75 2.66 2.87 2.77 2.65 2.66 2.66 2.67 2.68 2.79 3.05 2.93 2.83 2.74 2.96 2.86 2.74 2.71 2.71 2.72 2.725455 Rate if Cash Effect to Energy56 Demand 22.88 22.74 22.72 21.62 21.69 19.56 19.47 20.37 22.30 24.23 23.66 23.50 24.62 24.84 24.38 23.52 22.69 21.78 21.82 22.28 24.24 25.64 24.70 24.25 25.24 25.33 24.77 23.81 22.95 21.9957 Energy 19.87 20.57 27.54 32.98 26.81 22.73 17.51 22.10 29.94 31.16 31.23 31.21 33.00 34.42 35.16 35.28 33.49 29.73 27.67 27.17 30.50 28.44 28.66 29.42 25.16 25.95 27.63 30.03 28.58 25.6258 Transmission Others 2.34 2.42 2.47 2.69 2.66 2.71 2.74 2.73 2.69 2.69 2.67 2.64 2.65 2.64 2.62 2.60 2.59 2.58 2.65 2.66 2.71 2.72 2.72 2.69 2.72 2.71 2.69 2.67 2.65 2.635960 60% Load Factor All in Rate 78.25 78.81 85.85 89.25 83.18 74.28 68.92 75.56 87.80 93.46 92.20 91.70 96.12 98.03 97.65 95.74 92.00 86.11 84.32 84.91 92.87 94.11 92.12 91.79 89.88 90.87 91.20 91.34 87.85 82.6361 50% Load Factor All in Rate 89.93 90.46 97.51 100.51 94.45 84.59 79.20 86.25 99.37 105.92 104.39 103.80 108.75 110.76 110.14 107.83 103.70 97.38 95.65 96.45 105.35 107.24 104.82 104.26 102.82 103.85 103.91 103.60 99.70 94.0362 70% Load Factor All in Rate 69.91 70.49 77.52 81.21 75.12 66.92 61.58 67.93 79.53 84.56 83.49 83.06 87.10 88.95 88.72 87.10 83.64 78.05 76.22 76.66 83.96 84.73 83.06 82.88 80.63 81.59 82.12 82.58 79.38 74.486364 Shaded Values are Actuals6566 Under (Over) Collected Demand 1,445 1,401 (3,450) (10,185) (16,655) (15,537) (12,781) (5,801) 1,087 (978) (1,656) 2,850 4,014 1,994 (1,791) (4,901) (7,654) (7,583) (5,975) 919 6,120 2,635 1,033 5,235 5,983 3,531 (727) (4,062) (7,084) (6,940)6768 Under (Over) Collected Transmission (578) (422) 308 252 353 368 353 253 251 207 104 153 141 61 8 (38) (60) (72) (61) 71 119 112 36 108 114 42 (32) (92) (125) (144)6970 ARP All in Rate Cost / MWh 75.47 68.62 65.64 62.76 60.95 72.03 74.21 90.31 91.14 90.19 99.31 92.79 91.93 85.72 80.84 76.62 76.87 81.77 87.32 96.70 93.98 90.56 99.18 95.63 86.49 80.39 75.35 72.91 72.91 76.56

20182017

FMPAAll Requirements Project

November 2016 Rate Calculation - FYE 2017 Budget Rates and Rate Projection - Schedule B-1 Methodology - Four Month Spread of Rate/Cost & Liquidity Differences

2016

14 of 29

60% Load Factor

Apr 16 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep10.00% 78.25 78.81 85.85 89.25 83.18 74.28 68.92 75.57 88.63 86.92 82.03 83.08 88.27 89.83 89.70 88.10 85.07 78.16 76.93 76.00 79.80 82.33 84.37 85.41 86.43 87.15 87.78 85.74 82.45 77.4050.00% 78.25 78.81 85.85 89.25 83.18 74.28 68.92 75.57 89.79 92.98 86.74 88.50 94.58 96.36 96.44 94.53 90.87 84.60 83.51 84.10 92.23 94.72 91.18 90.98 90.50 91.68 91.39 91.26 87.30 82.4570.00% 78.25 78.81 85.85 89.25 83.18 74.28 68.92 75.57 90.29 95.57 88.90 91.02 97.31 99.42 99.53 97.50 93.93 87.93 86.68 87.98 98.75 101.50 94.31 93.59 92.14 93.81 93.71 93.82 89.51 84.9980.00% 78.25 78.81 85.85 89.25 83.18 74.28 68.92 75.57 90.59 97.16 90.20 92.67 99.02 101.44 101.16 99.69 95.94 90.08 88.86 90.30 103.55 105.74 96.63 95.34 93.28 94.99 95.09 95.78 91.41 86.6490.00% 78.25 78.81 85.85 89.25 83.18 74.28 68.92 75.57 91.01 99.40 92.10 94.73 101.48 104.10 104.08 103.02 99.45 93.12 91.23 94.11 111.61 113.12 100.35 97.85 94.54 97.47 96.96 98.35 94.29 89.02

50% Load Factor

10.00% 89.93 90.46 97.51 100.51 94.45 84.59 79.20 86.27 99.90 99.10 94.02 95.03 100.79 102.47 102.14 100.15 96.74 89.41 88.24 87.53 92.27 95.46 97.06 97.87 99.37 100.13 100.49 98.00 94.30 88.8050.00% 89.93 90.46 97.51 100.51 94.45 84.59 79.20 86.27 101.07 105.16 98.73 100.45 107.10 109.01 108.87 106.58 102.54 95.85 94.82 95.63 104.69 107.85 103.87 103.45 103.44 104.66 104.10 103.52 99.15 93.8570.00% 89.93 90.46 97.51 100.51 94.45 84.59 79.20 86.27 101.56 107.75 100.89 102.97 109.83 112.06 111.96 109.54 105.59 99.18 97.99 99.52 111.21 114.62 107.00 106.06 105.08 106.79 106.42 106.08 101.36 96.3980.00% 89.93 90.46 97.51 100.51 94.45 84.59 79.20 86.27 101.86 109.33 102.19 104.62 111.53 114.08 113.60 111.73 107.61 101.32 100.17 101.83 116.01 118.86 109.32 107.81 106.22 107.97 107.80 108.04 103.26 98.0490.00% 89.93 90.46 97.51 100.51 94.45 84.59 79.20 86.27 102.28 111.58 104.09 106.68 114.00 116.74 116.52 115.07 111.12 104.37 102.54 105.64 124.07 126.24 113.04 110.32 107.48 110.45 109.67 110.61 106.14 100.42

70% Load Factor

10.00% 69.91 70.49 77.52 81.21 75.12 66.92 61.58 67.93 80.58 78.22 73.47 74.54 79.33 80.80 80.81 79.50 76.74 70.13 68.85 67.76 70.90 72.96 75.31 76.50 77.18 77.88 78.70 76.98 73.98 69.2550.00% 69.91 70.49 77.52 81.21 75.12 66.92 61.58 67.93 81.74 84.29 78.18 79.96 85.64 87.33 87.55 85.92 82.54 76.57 75.43 75.86 83.33 85.35 82.12 82.08 81.25 82.40 82.31 82.51 78.83 74.3070.00% 69.91 70.49 77.52 81.21 75.12 66.92 61.58 67.93 82.23 86.87 80.34 82.48 88.37 90.39 90.64 88.89 85.60 79.90 78.60 79.75 89.85 92.12 85.25 84.68 82.90 84.54 84.63 85.07 81.04 76.8480.00% 69.91 70.49 77.52 81.21 75.12 66.92 61.58 67.93 82.54 88.46 81.64 84.13 90.07 92.40 92.28 91.08 87.61 82.04 80.78 82.06 94.65 96.37 87.57 86.43 84.04 85.71 86.01 87.02 82.94 78.5090.00% 69.91 70.49 77.52 81.21 75.12 66.92 61.58 67.93 82.96 90.71 83.54 86.19 92.54 95.07 95.20 94.42 91.12 85.09 83.15 85.87 102.71 103.74 91.29 88.95 85.30 88.19 87.88 89.59 85.83 80.87

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

Apr 16 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

$ pe

r MWH

All in Rate ‐ 60% Load Factorat Various Confidence Levels

10% CL

50% CL

70% CL

80% CL

90% CL

15 of 29

All in RateEnergy Demand Transmission Delivery CP W/O CP With

Excluded Excluded

BSH Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.722 79.48 73.60% 73.60%CLW Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.000 86.29 67.47% 62.98%FTP Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.000 84.46 71.07% 65.47%GCS Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.000 80.27 73.75% 70.86%HVA Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.000 69.85 90.45% 90.45%JXB Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.000 84.23 68.04% 65.92%KUA Dec-16 33.59 21.62 0.86 0.000 80.50 65.34% 64.15%KWS Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.000 76.40 75.92% 75.92%LBG Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.000 81.59 69.08% 68.14%NBY Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.722 83.53 68.74% 67.75%OCL Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.000 81.15 68.37% 68.37%STK Dec-16 33.59 21.62 2.72 0.000 83.36 74.41% 67.81%

Rate Load Factor

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Dec 1 Dec 3 Dec 5 Dec 7 Dec 9 Dec 11 Dec 13 Dec 15 Dec 17 Dec 19 Dec 21 Dec 23 Dec 25 Dec 27 Dec 29 Dec 31

ARP MW

Bushne

ll MW

Bushnell ‐ December 2016

Bushnell BSH Peak ARP ARP Peak

52.28% Non‐Coincident Peak Load Factor 73.60% Coincident Peak Load Factor

17 of 29

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ARP MW

Clew

iston

MW

Clewiston ‐ December 2016

Clewiston CLW Peak ARP ARP Peak


18 of 29

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ARP MW

Fort M

eade

MW

Fort Meade ‐ December 2016

Fort Meade FTM Peak ARP ARP Peak


19 of 29

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ARP MW

Fort Pierce MW

Fort Pierce ‐ December 2016

Fort Pierce FTP Peak ARP ARP Peak


20 of 29

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20


ARP MW

Green

Cov

e Sp

rings M

W

Green Cove Springs ‐ December 2016

Green Cove Springs GCS Peak ARP ARP Peak


21 of 29

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6


ARP MW

Havan

a MW

Havana ‐ December 2016

Havana HVA Peak ARP ARP Peak


22 of 29

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ARP MW

Beache

s Ene

rgy MW

Beaches Energy ‐ December 2016

Beaches Energy JXB Peak ARP ARP Peak


23 of 29

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ARP MW

Kissim

mee

Utility

Autho

rity MW

Kissimmee Utility Authority ‐ December 2016

Kissimmee Utility Authority KUA Peak ARP ARP Peak


24 of 29

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ARP MW

Keys Ene

rgy Services M

W

Keys Energy Services ‐ December 2016

Keys Energy Services KWS Peak ARP ARP Peak


25 of 29

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ARP MW

Leesbu

rg M

W

Leesburg ‐ December 2016

Leesburg LBG Peak ARP ARP Peak


26 of 29

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7


ARP MW

New

berry MW

Newberry ‐ December 2016

Newberry NBY Peak ARP ARP Peak


27 of 29

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ARP MW

Ocala M

W

Ocala ‐ December 2016

Ocala OCL Peak ARP ARP Peak


28 of 29

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ARP MW

Starke

MW

Starke ‐ December 2016

Starke STK Peak ARP ARP Peak


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Documents

DIAL-IN INFORMATION: 855-831-5534, Access Code … · Natural Gas Hedges and Interest Rate Swaps 5 of 29. ... (Bear Stearns Swaps) ARP 2011A1 (6,382,854) ... Source Actual Budget