Development of the Electrical Power System in the Northwest

• Dependence on hydropower - Atlas p. 101

• Early non-federal projects - Skagit, Elwha

• Federal programs: Columbia/Snake R.– rural electrification– job creation– Columbia Basin Project– Bonneville Power Act - 1937– role of BPA vs. BuRec or COE – the BPA preference clause - (1) public utilities, (2) private utilities, (3) DSI’s

Public

InvestorOwnedSystems

Hydro System Principles & Development

• Annual water runoff probabilities

• “Critical water”

• Storage dams w/winter peak snowpack

• Canadian Storage Agreement

• Demand forecasts - PNUCC, BPA

• B:C Analysis & Congressional Support 1940’s through 1960’s

• Role of the Aluminum Industry & DSI’s.

An Historic Drawing of Dam Elevations on the Columbia / Snake

Hanford Reach

Source: Hyde, p. 10

1994 Firm Power Demand

COMMERCIAL 24%

OTHER 1%

RESIDENTIAL 35%

DSI FIRM 11%

NON-DSI FIRM 25%

IRRIGATION 4%

INDUSTRIAL

36%

Source: NWPPC 4th Electric Power Plan, Appendix D

Firm & Non-Firm Electricity Sales

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1990

1994

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Ave

rag

e M

egaw

atts

Non-Firm

Firm

Source: NWPPC 4th Electric Power Plan, Appendix D

Seasonal Load Patterns, 1995

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec.

Meg

awat

ts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Loa

d Fa

ctor

PeakAverage EnergyLoad Factor

Source: NWPPC 4th Electric Power Plan, Appendix D

Source: NWPCC 6th Northwest Power Plan, Appendix C

Source: NWPCC 6th Power Plan, Appendix C

Source: NPPC 5th Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan,Demand Forecast Appendix

Typical Winter and Summer Weekday Load Shapes

Winter Weekday Load Shape

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Hour of the Day

Meg

awat

ts

Summer Weekday Load Shape

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Hour of the Day

Megaw

att

s

Source: NWPPC 4th Electric Power Plan, Appendix D

Evolution of Planning

• PNUCC method of forecasting

• WEC lawsuit

• City Light Energy 1990 Study

• BPA studies vs. NRDC forecast

• Collapse of WPPSS projects - bond defaults in the wake of new forecasts

• Congress creates the NWPPC (Now NPCC)

• NPCC reliance on conservation

The Hydro-Thermal Program• Exhaustion of hydro sites by the late 1960’s

• The Northwest-Southwest Intertie

• Concept of the hydro-thermal program

• Washington Public Power Supply System 0r WPPSS

• BPA Notice of Insufficiency

• Impact of hydro-thermal system on river flows; fisheries/environmentalist lawsuits

BPA vs. NRDC Forecast

Forecast and Reality in Northwest Electrical Power Use

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1950

1960

1970

1975

1980

1990

1995

Actual

- 198

9

bil

lio

ns

of

kw

y/y

r

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Irrigation

Other

The Intertie ConnectionsWere JustifiedOn Grounds Related to SeasonalComplementaryDemands inCaliforniaAnd the Northwest:Winter space heating Demands in the PNW,Summer air conditioningDemands in California

Source: Draft 6th PWPCC Power Plan, Appendix C

Source: NWPCC 6th Northwest Power Plan, Appendix C

Forecast Demand Growth Compared to Long-term Historical Trends

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-94 Low Medlo Medium Medhi High

Ann

ual P

erce

nt G

row

th

1994-2015

Source: NWPPC Draft 4th Electric Power Plan, Appendix D

Source: PWPCC Draft 6th Power Plan, Appendix C

Source: NWPCC 6th Northwest Power Plan, Chapter 1

Source: NWPCC 6th Northwest Power Plan, Chapter 1

Source: NWPCC 6th Northwest Power Plan

Source: NWPCC 6th Northwest Power Plan, Chapter 3

Source: NWPCC Draft 6th Northwest Power Plan, Chapter 3

Source: NWPCC 6th Northwest Power Plan, Chapter 4

Source: NWPCC 6th Northwest Power Plan

Source: NWPCC 6th Northwest Power Plan, Chapter 1

Source: NWPCC 6th Northwest Power Plan, Chapter 2

RPS – Renewable Resource Portfolio Standard

An updated electricity demand forecast from PNPCC

This figure is from the NWPCCmidterm assessmentof the 6th Plan

Much wind power isexported to California

NWPCC expects slower growth in theseexports as photovoltaics areused to meetthe Californiarenewable resource requirement

Other Issues

• Firm versus Interruptible Power

• Traditional long-term sales contracts versus “spot markets”

• Alternative energy sources:–wind, solar, wood

• Deregulation & multi-source competition

• NPCC options approach

• Fish versus power

Old Slides

• The following slides are not for use in class

• They are kept for reference purposes only

Source: NPPC 5th Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan,Demand Forecast Appendix