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Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems. Thomas Maxwell Robert Costanza University of Maryland. Motivation. Unbridled expansion of human enterprise. Depletion of natural life support systems. Resource depletion -> global tensions. Interacting complex systems. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic SystemsThomas MaxwellRobert Costanza University of Maryland
MotivationUnbridled expansion of human enterprise.Depletion of natural life support systems.Resource depletion -> global tensions.Interacting complex systems.Tremendous uncertainty.Potentially disastrous consequences.
Integrated Problem SolvingVisionState of the world.Possible future worlds (postitive & negative).What to tweak?Expected outcomes of policy adjustments.MethodologyHard problem science.Adaptive management.
Science in Service of SocietyComprehensive systems approachConceptual pluralismProblem driverMultiscaleIntegrated modelingLinks with policyModeling as consensus building toolCommunicating uncertainty
Collaborative (Visible) ModelingRealistic models require multiple teamsModelers typically not computer scientistsStake holders must be includedCommunication to a wide audience
Three Stage Modeling ProcessScoping modelsConsensus buildingResearch modelsUnderstanding dynamicsManagement modelsExploring scenarios
Modeling CollaboratoryConstructivist learning.Paradigm expansion.(narrow,linear,static) ->(broad,nonlinear,dynamic)Conflict resolution.Consensus building.Collective decision making.Develop management scenarios.
Supporting Collaborative ModelingGraphical modeling toolsModular model developmentTransparent high performance computingIntegrated data accessIntegrated visualizationVariety of formalisms and frames
Graphical ModelingModel viewed and manipulated graphically.Opens model development to non-programmers.Facilitates rapid development of models.Enforces modeling standards.Facilitates collaboration in model development.Graphical representation serves as a blackboard.
STELLA Model
Spatial Modeling Framework
CavernSoftCollaborativeEnvironmentEnvironmental Hydrology Applications TeamInputs to multiple models
Environmental Modeling Workbench
Integrated wirelessSensor webCoupledBio-HydroSimulationSpatial Modeling Environment
Two types of modulesEcological ModulesNo general theory.Primary focus on modeling.Examples: Macrophytes, Epiphytes, Consumers, PhytoplanktonModules developed in Stella/SME.
Physical ModulesTheory well known (e.g. Navier Stokes).Primary focus on computation.Examples: hydrodynamics, atmospheric dynamics.Modules developed externally and linked to SME.
Spatial Modeling Environment Collaborative Spatial Modeling Workbench Includes integrated support for:Icon-based unit module developmentModule archiving and reuseIntegration of multiple spatial representationsDistributed computingWeb-based modeling & simulationConfiguration, control, and visualization of remote simulations.Data access and visualizationReal-time links to other apps (e.g. Swarm).
Spatial Modeling EnvironmentSTELLA
PowerSim
SME ModuleEditorModuleConstructorSMML Module LibraryModuleRepositoryModuleBuilderSimulationDriverCode GeneratorHPCJavaPortalUnit modelSpatial modelGraphical modeling
Module Specification LanguageDeclarativeModularFully visible structure & dynamicsSupports encapsulation and specializationSeparate universal specs / site-specific configsPlatform and operating system independentFacilitates extensive simulation services
Simulation Module Markup Language XML-Based Declarative Language Simulation Module Specification Major Classes:Module: Reusable component.Variable: Simulation atomic object.Action: Performs computation or data IO.Event: Orders the execution of Actions.Frame: Defines a spatial topology.
( ( ( CONS_INGEST-CONS_EGEST )-CONS_MORT_BIOM ) ) CONS_RESPIRATION )
CARBON BIOMASS OF AN AGGREGATED CONSUMER. (KGC). CONSUMERS EXCLUDE THE MICRO ORGANISMS WHICH ARE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE RESPIRATION FLUXES ( ( P1_CONS_IC*0.001 )*CELL_SIZE )
SMML Example
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SMML Example
Typical State VariablesExamples of some typical state variables:(Dissolved Inorganic) Nitrogen, Phosphorus Water (Saturated, Unsaturated, Surface, Snow)DetritusMacrophyte (Non)Photosynthetic BiomassConsumersDeposited Organic MatterPhytoplanktonEpiphytes
Agent Based Modeling in SMESwarm agents can populate SME landscapes.SME-Swarm integration:http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/swarmsmeSwarm classes serve as wrappers for:SME model.SME grid layers.SME spatial variables.Two-way remote data transfer.Built on SNI simulation server architecture:http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/sni
Multi-Grid LibraryIntegrates multiple spatial representations Implements space in SME Major Components include:Cell: Spatially referenced area (or volume) element.Grid: Distributed set of Cells + links.Frame: Hierarchy of distributed Grids.Link: Connection between Cells.Intra-Grid: spatial contiguity.Inter-grid: scaling relations or mappings.Activation Layer: Subset of Cells in a Frame.Coverage: Mapping:: Activation Layer -> floats.
Spatial grid partitioned over processors
Highly parallel application
Recursive N-section: excellent load balancing
Fully transparent to userDistributed Processing
Model Calibration toolkitBuilt on MPE toolkit:http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/svp/Calculate performance measure (MPE)Estimate of match between model & system.Weighted sum of tests (Bounds, Theil, Freq, etc).Search parameter space to maximize MPE.Evolutionary and gradient searches.Params, tests, & searches configured in SME.
SME Java PortalDesktop access to remote supercomputing resourcesWeb-enabled ( using java servlets )Grid enabled ( using globus gram utility )Java applet Java servlet C++ appsPortal interfaces include:Workspace managementModule developmentModel configurationSimulation initialization, control, & visualization
WorkSpace Manager
Documentation PanelDocumentation of selected command
Model PanelHierarchical View of model objectsAssociated commands as boxes
Command PanelStructure of selected command
Property Panel Command ArgumentsConfiguration Manager
Parameter EditorEdit Simulation Parameters
Spreadsheet format
Simulation Control Control Execution View Model Structure Trace Dependencies View Model Equations Configure Visualization
Associates DataSets with Viewers
Creates Viewers
Manages DataSets
ViewServer Control Panel
2D Animation Viewer2D Animation Control Dynamic and manual rescaling ColorMap editor Data viewer (point/spreadsheet) Export as GIF or JPG
3D Animation ViewerDynamic Landscapes Variable1 -> Altitude Variable2 -> Color Mouse controlled navigation
Image Spreadsheet Simultaneous display of variables at multiple timesteps Useful for time series comparisons Configure: start time, time step, magnification, scaling, etc.
View spatial data Attach to vis panels Follows animation Export to Stat packages.Numerical Spreadsheet
Links components: Circulation (OM3) Ecology (SME)Atmospheric coupling Environmental Hydrology Applications TeamChesapeake Bay Model
Collaborative Virtual EnvironmentEnvironmental Hydrology Applications TeamChesapeake Bay data in CVE with Cave5D/Virtual Director
Example ApplicationsEverglades Landscape Modelhttp://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/esr/elm/intro/welcome.htmPatuxent Landscape Modelhttp://iee.umces.edu/PLMBaltimore Ecosystem Studyhttp://baltimore.umbc.edu/lterIllinois TES Modelshttp://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/
Environmental HydrologyEnvironmental Hydrology Applications Team
SME Distribution The SME home page:
http://iee.umces.edu/SME3
Includes:Overview.Technical documentation.Publications.Source code (C++ and java).Links