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JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruTsunami Group Meeting, 20 December, 2009
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
Developing Tsunami Damage Estimation and Mitigation Technologies
Tsunami Research Group G2
1
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruTsunami Group Meeting, 20 December, 2009
Banda Aceh Hambanthota Khao Lak
Let us imagine again the tsunami disasters.
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
Pangandaran CamanaLeone
2
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Objectives and goals
T th t ti l t i di t d
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
• To assess the potential tsunami disaster and its impact to the Peruvian coast
• To develop the practical technologies to mitigate tsunami risks in Peru
• To implement the strategic plans for disaster mitigation of Peruvian government
• To contribute the Pacific tsunami disaster mitigation strategies
3
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Tsunami group member• Dr. Shunichi Koshimura (Tohoku
Univ., Tsunami engineering, • Msc. Julio Kuroiwa (Leader,
CISMID)
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
, g g,Team Leader)
• Dr. Gaku Shoji (Univ. of Tsukuba, Structural and earthquake engineering)
• Dr. Yushiro Fujii (BRI, Seimology and Tsunami modeling)
)
• Guillermo Hasembank(Contralminarte, DHN)
• Gilberto Tacilla (Tec., DHN)
• Mr. Cesar Jiménez (Tsunami simulation, DHN)
C l M Vill (DHN)and Tsunami modeling)
• Dr. Yuji Yagi (Univ. of Tsukuba, Seismology)
• Dr. Hideaki Yanagisawa (TEPSCO, Tsunami modeling)
4
• Carlos Marcos Villanneva (DHN)
• Dr. Miguel Estrada (CISMID)
by Prof. Carlos Alberto Zavala Tóledoat the kickoff tsunami meeting
CISMID, Dec 20, 2009
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Research plan ‐ Scientific phase ‐• Assessing historical tsunami events and its impact in Peru
– Tsunami sources
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
Tsunami sources– Tsunami hazard (Tsunami generation, near‐shore propagation and coastal inundation)
– Damage (Casualties, structural damage)
• Indentifying potential tsunamis and the worst case scenarios– Tectonic settings and tsunami source scenarios– Potential tsunami exposure (Exposed population)– Potential impact
• Mapping tsunami hazard and its impact– Inundation modeling– Damage estimation (Casualties, structural damage)– Hazard maps, Cartography
5
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Research plan ‐ Implementation Phase ‐• Developing a fundamental procedure for mapping t i h d
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
tsunami hazard– Training program (Tsunami modeling and mapping)– Warning, guidance and public awareness
• Strategic planning to mitigate tsunami risks and damage– Tsunami disaster mitigation program for Peruvian governmentgovernment
– Tsunami countermeasures– Design for tsunami evacuation facilities– Tsunami evacuation strategies
6
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Past events in Peru
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
7
NGDC Tsunami Databasehttp://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Damage at Camana
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
Inundation level
8
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
2001 Tsunami ‐ Camana, Peru ‐Casualty House damage
Dead Missing Injury Major/Minor Collapsed
24 62 41 760 2915
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
24 62 41 760 2915
9
Affected area
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Modeling the 2001 Peruvian tsunamiTsunami source :
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
Kikuchi and Yamanaka (2001)
10
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Source process of 2007 Peru earthquake by inversion of tele‐seismic body waveSlip distribution (Map view) Focal mechanism, Source time fun.,
Sli di t ib ti f lt l
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
Slip distribution on fault plane
Yagi (2007)
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Tsunami Waveform Inversion Result
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
2010 Chile earthquake
1212
Length: 50 kmWidth: 50 kmfor each subfault
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Tsunami modeling technology• Tsunami Modeling techniques (Tsunami‐code to simulate tsunami generation off shore/near
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
simulate tsunami generation, off‐shore/near‐shore propagation and coastal inundation)
13
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Potential tsunami exposurePopulationGlobal/Regional Tsunami Model
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
Population (LandScan)
14
Tsunami height (m)
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Tsunami fragility curves
• Structural damage probabilities in terms of flow
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
depth, current velocity and hydrodynamic force
15
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Clarification of failure modes of a structural component by tsunamis
Shear cracking of
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
せん断ひび割れ
Shear cracking of brick masonry wall
Flexural failure of RC column
16Shear cracking of brick masonry wall
Tsunami wave
July 17, 2006 South Java
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Things to discuss are open based on the resolution at the kickoff tsunami meeting [1]
• Study area …
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
– One historical event for model verification/validation(Camana, Pisco)
– Two potential scenarios (Callao, Chimbote, Pisco, Ilo harbor ; important ports industrial commercial places and exposures)
• Data we need
– Merged bathymetry /topography grid in study areas (30 meter Merged bathymetry /topography grid in study areas (30 meter grid form North Pisco, South Pisco should be requested, Camana is already prepared)
– Field survey results for model validation (Pisco, Camana)
– Building polygon for structural damage estimation
– Population data for fatality estimation 17
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
• Human resources… who is going to work on tsunami modeling? h d l
Things to discuss are open based on the resolution at the kickoff tsunami meeting [2]
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
Schedule?
• What we are going to do in 2010 is
– Japan side
• Tsunami propagation modeling to identify what the worst‐case scenario is.
• Tsunami damage assessment (Koshimura Yanagisawa Shoji)Tsunami damage assessment (Koshimura, Yanagisawa, Shoji)
• Collecting field survey data (2001 Camana event)
– Peru side
• What has been done from Pisco and Camana.
• Tsunami issues in Peru (San Marcos Univ. Prof. Ocola, DHN , Mr. Jiménez) 18
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Engineered concrete block houseField survey
at Camana
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
Non‐engineered concrete block house
2.60m
in Dec 21‐22, 2009
Inundation depth
19
La Punta
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Field survey at Callao
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
in Dec 20, 2009
20
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Potential Tsunami Exposed‐Death
µ[ ]∑ ××=N
iHFrPopNPTE1
)()/1(
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
10°0
'0"S
0°0
'0"
µ=i 1
N : Number of Earthquake eventPop : Population per sell H : Maximum tsunami heightFr(x): Fragility function of human
damage
Koshimura et al.,(2009)
⎤⎡ 375H
21
90°0'0"W 80°0'0"W 70°0'0"W
20°0
'0"S
Population
100
0 LandScan 2008
Here, the earthquake probability in Northern area (> 9S°) is assumed to be 100 %.
⎥⎦⎤
⎢⎣⎡ −
Φ=72.0
37.5)(
HxFr
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
The tsunami risk in the coast of Peru – Tentative version ‐
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Chiclayo
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
!!LimaCallao
!
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!
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LimaCallao
Iquitos
Barranca
Trujillo
Chimbote
Chiclayo
Guayaquil
10°0
'0"S
5°0'
0"S
0 10 20 305km
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Trujillo
0 30 6015km
22
Potential Exposed-Death
" 0.01 - 10.0
" 10.0 - 50.0
" 50.0 - 100.0
" > 100.0
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!
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!Pisco Cuzco
Iquique
Arequipa
80°0'0"W 75°0'0"W 70°0'0"W
20°0
'0"S
15°0
'0"S
0 5025km
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0 5025km
0 10 205km
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Arequipa
0 50 10025km
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009
Objectives and goals
T th t ti l t i di t d
JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010
• To assess the potential tsunami disaster and its impact to the Peruvian coast
• To develop the practical technologies to mitigate tsunami risks in Peru
• To implement the strategic plans for disaster mitigation of Peruvian government
• To contribute the Pacific tsunami disaster mitigation strategies
23