DEVELOPING THE PHILIPPINE

NATIONALLY DETERMINED

CONTRIBUTION (NDC)

Flordeliza M. Andres, Ph.D.

NDC Consultant – CCC-UNDP Low Emission Capacity

Building (LECB) Philippines Project

“Collectively shaping our NAMA for the Building Sector”

- CCC – Phil. Green Building Council Conference

21 November 2017

Sofitel Philippine Plaza

Outline

• NDC Context

• NDC Process

• INDC vs. NDC (tentative) targets

• Mitigation Options / Energy Efficiency

• Implementing and Financing the NDC

• Summary & Way Forward

Phil. INDC submitted-

Oct. 2015

PA adopted at UNFCCC COP 21 -Dec. 2015)

Entered into force - Nov. 2016)

President Duterte signed Instrument of Accession to the PA - Feb. 2017

Phil. Senate concurred in the Accession -March 2017)

PA Entered into force for the Philippines -Apr. 2017

1st NDC Due by 2020

Update NDC every 5 years

Paris Agreement – NDC Process Timeline

170 of 197 Parties to the UNFCCC have ratified the Paris Agreement Including the 10 ASEAN countries

Multi-stakeholder Forum on NDC Sectoral Targets (July 2017)

Updating of Adaptation and Mitigation Actions & Targets (Aug. – Dec. 2017)

Drafting of NDC (Start Q4 2017

Sectoral Action & Financial Planning (Start Q4 2017)

Stakeholder consultations to revisit INDC

Mainstreaming of NDC in national/sectoral planning & budgeting processes

Paris Agreement – Goals & Key Provisions

Long-term temperature goal - Limit global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts towards 1.5 °C

Adaptation - Enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change through support to developing countries.

NDC/Mitigation – All Parties required to submit “nationally determined contributions” (NDC), which must include domestic mitigation measures,

Climate Finance – Developed countries to provide financial resources to developing countries for adaptation and mitigation.

International Frameworks

National Context

“AWIT-FE”: Agriculture, Waste, Industry, Transport, Forestry, Agriculture & Energy

Phil. NDC Goal & Priority Areas

Climate-Resilient Low Carbon Development

Adaptation

Ecosystem-based

Adaptation for Water and Food Security

Sustainable Forestry

Climate Resilient

Agriculture

Resilience of the Built

Environment (Infrastructure, Buildings, etc.)

Mitigation

Sustainable Energy & Transport

Climate-Smart Industries &

Services (Greening

Industries , Waste

Management)

GOVERNANCE/CLIMATE FINANCE

Adaptation• Adaptation is a priority

• Financial resources, technology transfer and capacity building support are needed for the following priority adaptation measures:

• Downscaling climate change models, climate-scenario building, and climate monitoring and observation;

• Mainstreaming climate and disaster risk reduction in national and local development plans, programs and projects;

• Developing climate and disaster-resilient ecosystems

• Systematic transition to a climate and disaster-resilient social and economic growth; and

• Research and development on climate change, extremes and impacts for improved risk assessment and management

Loss-and-Damage• Ensure that Loss & Damage are minimized to ensure achievement of development goals

Mitigation• GHG emission reduction of about 70% relative to the business as usual scenario by 2030

• Mitigation actions will come from the energy, transport, waste, forestry and industry sectors; implementation conditional on the financing, including technology and capacity building support to be received from developed countries

• Reduction of emissions is conditional on the extent of financial resources including technology development and trasfer, capacity building support to be made available to the Philippines

Philippine INDC- Salient points

Proposed NDC Adaptation & Mitigation Actions[1]

• Energy Efficiency (Residential/Commercial)

• Renewable Energy/Other Clean Energy

• Vulnerability Assessment/Resiliency of Energy InfrastructureENERGY

• Improving Road Transport efficiency

• Promotion of Mass Transit Systems

• Shift to cleaner fuels and vehicles

• Greening Logistics and Aviation/Maritime Transport*

TRANSPORT

• Energy Efficiency/Fuel switching (Energy-intensive industries)

• Energy Efficiency/HFC Substitution w/Low-GHG RefrigerantsINDUSTRY

• Solid Waste Management

• Wastewater Treatment (Domestic and Industrial)WASTE

• Forest protection and Management

• Forest Restoration and RehabilitationFORESTRY

• National Color-Coded Agricultural Guide Map (NACCAG)

• Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA)

• Climate-Resilient Agriculture (CRA) Practices

• AMIA (Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative in Agriculture) Villages

• Climate Investment Program for Agriculture and Fisheries

AGRICULTURE

[1] Based on the NDC Multi-sectoral Forum, July 2017 Adaptation or A/M actions in blue font

INDC vs. NDC Mitigation Targets – All Options

INDC: 70% reduction vs. BAU scenario (2000-2030)

NDC (Tentative): 67% reduction vs. BAU scenario (2010-2030)

Data Sources: INDC : Phil. INDC, 2015; NDC (Tentative): CCC/USAID CBA Study, 2015

0 50 100 150 200 250

IncreaseGlassCulletUse

HomeLigh ngImprovements

Rail(MassTransit)

NREPOcean

NREPBiomass

CementWasteHeatRecovery

Conges onCharging

EnergyEfficientStreetLigh ng

NREPSolar

EnhancedBusServicesincludingBRT

MSWDiges on

MethaneRecoveryfromSanitaryLandfills

DriverTraining

HomeApplianceStandards

NREPSmallHydro

Compos ng

MethaneFlaring

MotorVehicleInspec on

Eco-EfficientCover

BiodieselBlendingTarget

JeepneyModerniza on

NREPWind

NaturalGasforCoal

BiomassCo-firinginpowergenera on

CementClinkerReduc on

BiomassforCementProduc on

NREPLargeHydro

NREPGeothermal

Biofuels

ForestProtec on

ForestRestora onandReforesta on

Philippine INDC Mitigation Options

Priority options only – 40% reduction from BAU

All options: 70% reduction from BAU scenario

Cumulative mitigation potential (in MtCO2e), 2000-2030

Source of Data: CCC/Philippine INDC, 2015.

INDC – Energy Sector

MITIGATION ACTIONS - INDCCum. Mitigation Potential, 2000-

2030 (MtCO2e)

ENERGY 265.1

Priority Options 242.9

Renewable Energy (NREP) 181.8

Natural Gas 24.1

Biodiesel Blending 20.1

Energy Efficiency 16.9

Additional Options 22.2

10 % Savings from Energy Efficiency 6.2

Heat Rate Improvement in Power Plants 4.5

Renewable Portfolio Standards 4.1

Shift to Clean Cook Stoves 4.0

System Loss reduction 3.1

50% SPUG generation to RE 0.3

Energy Efficiency – CBA Study

MITIGATION

OPTIONS DESCRIPTION/ASSUMPTIONS

Home lighting

improvements

By 2020, switching to more efficient compact fluorescent and

light-emitting diode (LED) technologies.

• Moratorium on sales of incandescent, linear fluorescent, and

circular fluorescent lightbulbs for use in residences. The

measure starts in 2020.

Home appliance

standards

By 2020, widespread switching to more efficient home appliances

• switching from both CRT and non-CRT televisions to highly efficient LED and liquid crystal display (LCD) models;

• introducing efficient refrigerators, freezers, and fans; and deploying efficient split and window air conditioning units.

Energy Efficiency

in Buildings*

Buildings comply with Building Code

Source: USAID/B-LEADERS (2015). Cost-Benefit Study of Mitigation Options

Energy Efficiency – CBA Study

MITIGATION

OPTIONS DESCRIPTION/ASSUMPTIONS

Energy Efficient Street Lighting

By 2025, 100% of street lamps (on- and off-grid) switch to more efficient lighting technology

• high-pressure sodium (HPS) or

• LED lighting technology

Energy

Efficiency in

Buildings*

Buildings comply with Building Code

*Potential Option

Mitigation Potential – Energy Efficiency Options

DATA SOURCES CCC/INDC USAID Study,

2015-2030 USAID Study, 2010-

2050 ADB Study 2010-

2050

MITIGATION OPTIONS

Cumulative Mitigation Potential (MtCO2e)

Share

Cumulative Mitigation Potential (MtCO2e)

Share

Cumulative Mitigation Potential (MtCO2e)

Share

Cumulative Mitigation Potential (MtCO2e)

Share

Energy Efficiency 16.9 6.4% 2.6 5.8% 115.3 8.5% 182.2 4.6%Home Appliance Standards 10.1 3.8% 1.7

3.8%81.3

6.0%156

4.0%

Refrigerators - 80

Air-conditioning Units

- 40

Electric Fans 21 TVs 15

Home Lighting Improvements

2.0 0.8% 0.3 1% 9.0 1% 26 1%

Energy Efficient Street Lighting 4.8

1.8%0.6

1%25.0

2%

Proposed for NDC - Energy Efficiency

• Energy Labeling For six (6) products:

• aircon (window & split type),

• refrigerators,

• compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs),

• linear fluorescent lamps,

• circular fluorescent lamps,

• fluorescent lamp ballasts

• Minimum Energy Performance Standards

(MEPS) Covers three (3) products:

• aircon (window & split type),

• compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs),

• linear fluorescent lamps

Proposed for NDC* - Energy Efficiency

• Government Energy Management Program

(GEMP)

• Deferred capacity from energy savings reached 2,547 MW

(2015-2016)

• Policy Development

• Implementing guidelines on the Philippine Energy

Standards and Labeling Program (PESLP)

• Directing Compliance of Commercial, Industrial and

Transport Establishments with the Philippine Minimum

Energy Performance Program

*By the DOE at the NDC Multi-stakeholder Forum, July 2017

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Mitigation Options

2010-2050 GHG baseline

scenario

Sector integration

Non-energy GHG reductions with

mitigation options

Cost-benefit of mitigation

Non-energy cost and co-

benefit analysis

Energy security & employment

benefits

Monetized health co-benefits

SECTORAL OVERSIGHT AGENCIES

GHG abatement potential & MACC for all sectors

CCC / NEDA

Sector Analysis: Agriculture, Waste, Industry, Forestry

Economy-wide Integrated Analysis Co-benefits

Source: CCC/USAID B-LEADERS ProjectLEAP- Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system

Non-EnergyTransportEnergy

Assessing GHG Impact of Energy Efficiency

Source: Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT). 2017. Buildings Efficiency Guidance (Draft)

Global Climate Finance in Context

Source: UNFCCC. Report of the Standing Committee on Finance to the COP22

The estimated cost of energy actions in INDCs is USD 1.1 trillion a year (IEA), less than 1/3 of the annual requirement for total energy investments, but is already 1.5 times the average global total climate finance ($714 bn) in 2013/2014.

• Mitigation activities accounted for an average of 93% of climate finance between 2015 and 2016, of which, 74% was for renewable energy generation.

• However, energy efficiency has overtaken renewable energy as the major focus of mitigation investment by the public sector, increasing its share from 24% during the 2013/2014 period to 35% for the 2015/2016 period (CPI Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2017)

Catalyzing Climate Finance for the NDC

Source: United Nations Development Programme. Catalyzing Climate Finance: A Guidebook on Policy and Financing Options to Support Green, Low-Emission and Climate-Resilient Development. April 2011

Catalyzing Climate Finance for the NDC

Way Forward for the NDC

• Adaptation – integration of plans with NDC

• Mitigation options and GHG reduction targets

▪ Prioritization

▪ Sectoral GHG targets/Economy-wide goal

▪ Conditionality?

• Implementation/Transition Planning

▪ Green jobs & safeguards for affected sectors

• Financial Planning

• Development of project pipeline

• MRV Systems

• Institutional arrangements and linkages

Country Overall GHG Emission Reduction TargetUnconditional/ Conditional

Component

PhilippinesReduce GHG emission by 70% by 2030 relative to BAU scenario of 2000–2030,

Entire 70% conditional

IndonesiaReduce GHG emission by up to 41% by 2030 relative to BAU level from 2010 to 2030

26% unconditional by 2020, additional 12% conditional by 2030

MalaysiaReduce GHG emission intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 relative to 2005 base year;

35% unconditional, 10% conditional

ThailandReduce GHG emission by 45% by 2030 relative to BAU level for 2005-2030

20% unconditional, 25% conditional

VietnamReduce GHG emissions by up to 33% compared with BAU and reduce emission intensity of GDP by 20% relative to 2010

Unconditional – 8% GHG emission reduction and 20% reduction in emission intensity of GDP relative to 2010; Conditional -additional 17% emission reduction by 2030

China Peak emissions by 2030 or earlier andreduce emission intensity of GDP by 60% to 65% by 2030 below 2005 level

No mention

IndiaReduce emission intensity of GDP by 33% to 35% by 2030 compared with 2005

Unconditional and conditional

USA 26-28% below its 2005 level by 2025 No mention

Mitigation Targets in Some INDCs

THANK YOU!