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Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale
Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy)
carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
Emission Inventory
ProjectionFactors
Emissions Projection
System
Future Emission
s
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Background in the last year new European Union (EU)
air quality directives have been introduced
the Directives requires Member States to divide their territory into zones related to air quality standards
the directives requires Member States to adopt plan and programs inside zones when air quality standards are not respected
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Topics EU legislation and prescription for regional
plan and program for air quality management
methodologies and software used in regional and local level emissions projections
differences and synergies of national, regional and “zone” projection
detailed methodology case studies
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
EU air quality standards limit value, a level fixed with the aim of avoiding,
preventing or reducing harmful effects on human health and/or the environment as a whole
alert threshold, beyond which there is a risk to human health from brief exposure
margin of tolerance, the percentage of the limit value by which this value may be temporarily exceeded
upper (lower) assessment threshold, below which a combination of measurements and modeling techniques (modeling or objective-estimation techniques alone) may be used to assess air quality
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
EU legislation procedure Preliminary Air quality
assessment
Definition of zones and
agglomerations
Assessment of ambient air
quality requirements
Plan and
programs
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Assessment of ambient air quality
Air quality assessme
ntEmission
Inventory & Models
Definition of zones and
agglomerations
Zones where levels are
below the lower assessment threshold
Measurement
Agglomerations (>250.000
inhabitants) and Zones
where levels exceed upper assessment threshold
Zones where levels are between lower and upper assessment
threshold
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Plan and programs
plan or programme
attaining the limit value within the
specific time limit
higher than the limit
value plus the margin of tolerance
zones and agglomerations in which the levels of one or
more pollutants are:
below the limit values
maintain the levels of pollutants below the limit
values preserve the best ambient air quality, compatible with sustainable development
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Regional, National & EC planning
National Plans
Regional Plans
Measures at national scale
Local effects of measures at EC or
national scale
Specific measures inside zones
Measures at EC scale
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
National vs Regionalgeneral
activity trend
main point sources trend
technologies trend & national measures
Specific measure on smaller point sources inside zones
Specific trend inside zones
Specific measures for lines and area inside zones
National
Regional Plans
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Model
Emission Inventory
ProjectionDrivers
Scenario definition
in Emissions Projection
System
Future Emission
s
Area emissions
inside zones
Line emissions
inside zones
National point
sources emissions
Minor point
sources emissions
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Projection drivers: activity aα = Vα
k / Vα0
Vα0 (V
αk) activity levels at base (at future) year
examples: population, gross domestic product agricultural production, waste production number of road vehicles, number of takeoff/landing tons of freight transported by road and sea specific reduction of miles in zone by traffic limitation specific reduction of miles in zone by fuel limitation specific modification of single Point and Line sources activities
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Projection drivers: technology (EFs)
fβ = Vβk / V
β0
Vβ0 (V
βk) parameters which affect emission at
base year (at future year)examples: sulphur content of fuels new regulation limits on emissions from point sources and mobile sources solvent content of products (paints, inks, glues, etc.) application of Best Available Technologies – BATs at regional or single sources level application of Best Available Practices – BAPs at regional or single sources level
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Scenarios definition activity scenarios defined associating to selected activities, specific activity drivers at regional, zone, line and units of point source level technology scenarios defined associating to selected activities and pollutants, specific technology drivers at regional, zone, line and units of point source levelemissions scenarios obtained as combination of activity, technology and point sources scenarios
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Area emissionsEijkz = Eij0z a f a f+ Eijkz
Area emissions Eijkz of pollutant j at year k, in zone z, for the activity i are evaluated from
emissions at base year Eij0z and: driver for regional activity indicators
projection a driver for regional emission factors projection
f
driver for zone activity indicators projection a
driver for zone emission factors projection f
aditional emissions Eijkz for new absolute contribution (new activities in some zones)
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Point emissionsEijkup = Eij0up a f a f+ Eijklup
Point sources emissions Eijkp of pollutant j at year k, of unit u of source p, for the activity i are
evaluated from emissions at base year Eij0p and: driver for regional activity indicators projection
a
driver for regional emission factors projection f driver for unit activity indicators projection a driver for unit emission factors projection f
aditional emissions Eijkup for new absolute contribution (new units, new plants)
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Line emissionsEijkl = Eij0l a f a f+ Eijkl
Line emissions Eijkl of pollutant j at year k, on line l, for the activity i are evaluated from
emissions at base year Eij0l and: driver for regional activity indicators
projection a
driver for regional emission factors projection f
driver for line activity indicators projection a
driver for line emission factors projection f
additional emissions Eijkl for new lines (for examples new transport infrastructures)
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
PREM system
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995 2000 2005 2010
year
ind
ex (
19
95
=1
00
)
Carbon M onoxide
Volatile OrganicCompounds
Nitrogen Oxides
Suspended particles<10 micron
Sulphur Oxides
Carbon Dioxide
PREM Emissions Projection System
(Visual basic language)
APEX DB Advanced Pollutants
Emissions Computer System Data Base
PREM DB Emissions Projection System
Data Base
Future EmissionsReports
Future Emissions
Maps
Future Emissions
Graphs
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
PREM Main menu
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
PREM Report menu
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
TrentoBolzano
Friuli-Venezia Giulia
Liguria
Sicilia
Campania
Toscana
Umbria
Basilicata
Regional case studies in Italy
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Regional case study 1
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
CO CO2 VOC NOx PM10 SOx
Forest firesPortsHighway goods transport limitationCar PoolingVOC normative: area sourcesVOC normative: point sourcesPoint sources measuresDistrict heating + Energy savingEmissions after measures
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Regional case study 2
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
1997 2002 2007 2012
Do nothing scenario Plan scenario Kyoto scenario Sustainable development scenario
Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello
Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com
30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Conclusion A specific methodology is required for
evaluate emissions reduction scenarios at zones level in the frame of EU air quality directive plan and program
The methodology is complementary to European and National level planning
A specific tool are developed for zone emission projection
Methodology and tool are used in regional planning in Italy in the last years