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Developing a statistical-multispecies framework for a predator-prey system in the eastern Bering Sea:
Jesús Jurado-MolinaUniversity of Washington
Jim Ianelli, Patricia LivingstonAlaska Fisheries Science Center
Ecological considerations in fisheries management
Competition Predation Environmental Regime
Shifts Habitat alteration
Scientific Framework to provide ecosystem-based advice in the Bering Sea Main goals for protecting ecosystem
attributes:1. Maintain predator/prey relationships 2. Maintain energy flow and balance 3. Maintain diversity Tools:1. Multispecies models (biological interactions)2. Multispecies models (technological
interactions)3. Full ecosystem models (ECOPATH,
ECOSIM…)
Multispecies models (biological interactions)
Deterministic models:1. Multispecies virtual population
analysis (MSVPA)2. Multispecies forecasting model
(MSFOR) Statistical models:1. Multispecies statistical model
(MSM)
Multispecies VPA
Data
Population Dynamics Equations
Predation Equations
Point
Estimates
Data
MSVPA-MSFOR models
Statistical catch-at-age models
Data
Priors
Population Dynamics Equations
Objective Function
Posterior Distribution
Likelihood
Profile
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
Multispecies statistical model
Data
Prior
information
Population Dynamics
O bjective function
Predation equations
Posterior D istribution
Likelihood
Profile
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
Data
MSM: assumptions Separable fishing mortality
assumption (Fa,t = saFfull,t) M= M1+ M2 Constant annual predator ration Stomach content measured
without error
Advantages of MSM: Multispecies approach Measuring indirect effects of fishing We can use the tools used in single-species
stock assessments Likelihood profile Bayesian analysis (posterior distributions) Decision analysis Model selection (Akaike’s information
criterion,likelihood ratio ) Able to make comparisons with the single-species
stock assessment models in the same statistical framework
MSM (previous version) Included only two species (walleye
pollock and Pacific cod) Set up in Excel Fitted only to catch at age data,
total catch, bottom trawl survey and EIT survey
Updated to 2002 data
MSM (new version) Three species, walleye pollock, Pacific
cod and arrowtooth flounder Set up in AD model builder Fitted to total catch data, bottom trawl
survey, pollock age composition, Pacific cod and arrowtooth length composition (from fishery), survey age and size composition, EIT survey (pollock)
Updated to 2006 data
MSM system for the Bering Sea
Walleye pollock
Pacific codFishery
Arrowtooth flounder
Walleye pollock N3+
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
N3+
(10
00's
)
MSVPA MSM AFSC
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
N3+
(10
00's
)
Pacific cod N3+
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
N3+
(10
00's
)
MSVPA MSM AFSC
Bottom trawl survey fitWalleye pollock
0.00E+00
1.00E+06
2.00E+06
3.00E+06
4.00E+06
5.00E+06
6.00E+06
7.00E+06
8.00E+06
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Bio
ma
ss
(t0
Obs Est
Pacific cod
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Bio
ma
ss
(t)
Obs Est
Total catch fitPacific cod
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Bio
ma
ss
(t)
Obs Est
Walleye pollock
0.00E+00
5.00E+05
1.00E+06
1.50E+06
2.00E+06
2.50E+06
3.00E+06
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Cat
ch (
t)
Obs Est
Arrowtooth flounder
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Catc
h (
t)
Obs Est
Average predation mortality at age
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Age
Avg
. Pre
dat
ion
mo
rtal
ity
msvpa adm
Walleye pollock
Pacific cod
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 1 2 3 4 5
Age
Avg
. Pre
dat
ion
mo
rtal
ity
MSVPA MSM
Pollock predation mortality
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Pre
dat
ion
mo
rtal
ity
(yea
r-1)
MSVPA MSM
Comparison of age-1 pollock predation mortality
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Pre
dat
ion
mo
rtal
ity
(yea
r-1)
MSVPA MSM
Comparison of age-2 pollock predation mortality
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Pre
dat
ion
mo
rtal
ity
(yea
r-1)
MSVPA MSM
Comparison of age-3 pollock predation mortality
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Pre
dat
ion
mo
rtal
ity
(yea
r-1)
MSVPA MSM
Comparison of age-4 pollock predation mortality
Walleye pollock predation mortality in 1979 (from MCMC with 3 million iterations)
MSVPA
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7
Predation mortality
Po
ste
rio
r d
istr
ibu
tio
n
Age-1
MSVPA
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
Predation mortality
Po
ste
rio
r d
istr
ibu
tio
n
Age-2
Age-3
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03
Predation mortality
Po
ste
rio
r d
istr
ibu
tio
n
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Predation mortality
Po
ste
rio
r d
istr
ibu
tio
n
Age-1 Age-2 Age-3
Walleye predation mortality in 1979
Predation mortality comparison
Slope = 0.9±0.02
r2 = 0.92
Predation mortality
0.00E+00
5.00E-01
1.00E+00
1.50E+00
2.00E+00
2.50E+00
3.00E+00
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
MSVPA
MS
M
Comparison of causes of death (numbers) - Pollock
0.0E+00
2.0E+07
4.0E+07
6.0E+07
8.0E+07
1.0E+08
1.2E+08
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
Nu
mb
ers
(10
00
's)
Catch M1 M2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
% o
f d
eath
s (n
um
be
rs)
Catch M1 M2
Comparison of causes of death (biomass) - Pollock
0.0E+002.0E+064.0E+06
6.0E+068.0E+061.0E+071.2E+07
1.4E+071.6E+071.8E+07
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
Bio
mas
s (
t)
Catch M1 M2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
% o
f d
eath
s (b
iom
ass)
Catch M1 M2
Comparison of causes of death (spawning biomass) - Pollock
0.00E+00
5.00E+05
1.00E+06
1.50E+06
2.00E+06
2.50E+06
3.00E+06
3.50E+06
4.00E+06
4.50E+06
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
Sp
awn
ing
bio
mas
s (t
)
Catch M2 M1
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
% o
f d
eath
s (
SS
B)
Catch M2 M1
Walleye pollock Recruitment
0.0E+00
2.0E+07
4.0E+07
6.0E+07
8.0E+07
1.0E+08
1.2E+08
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
MSVPA MSM SSP
Year
Rec
rutm
ent
(100
0's)
Future tasks Addition of the complete set of
stomach content data Module for model projections Module for technological
interactions
Developing a statistical-multispecies framework for a predator-prey system in the eastern Bering Sea:
Jesús Jurado-MolinaUniversity of Washington
[email protected]@noaa.gov