Developing a Global Tsunami Warning

and Mitigation System:From Commitment to Action

Patricio A. Bernal, Executive Secretary of IOC, ADG UNESCOLaura Kong, Director, IOC ITICrev Sri Lanka Training, 3-7 April 2006

EWC-III, Scientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, 28 March 2006

UNESCAP Thailand Trust Fund BriefingBangkok, 28 March 2006

“We cannot stop natural calamities, but we can and must

better equip individuals and communities to withstand them.”

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan

A Call to Action … 26 December 2004

250,000 dead, 500,000 injured 1 million displaced

$8 billion in damages

Plate TectonicsActive subducting plate boundaries

• 1965 - response to 1960 Pacific-wide Chile tsunamiIOC established ICG/ITSU (now ICG/PTWS)Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Systemsuccessful & operational

Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System

• PTWC - Operational HQ• ITIC - Oversee and monitor effectiveness,

Facilitate to establish new systems, preparedness, outreach

IOC ICG/PTWS

28 member States (2005):Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, France,Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan,

Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Thailand, United States, Samoa, Vietnam.

• Successful Operational Tsunami Warning System > 40 yrs• Successful international scientific program• Pacific Basin monitoring of seismicity and sea levels• Direct humanitarian aim• Mitigate tsunami effects - save lives/property

IOC ICG/PTWS

PTWC Global Seismic Network

26 December 2004

200,000

Somalia - 4308,000

16,000

35,000

Myanmar - 100

Tanzania - 10

Seychelles - 3Kenya - 1

80

Maldives - 108

11 countries ~250,000 deaths1 million displaced

• 250,000 dead - Nations of the region act • IOC invited to lead TSUNAMI EWS establishment• UN/OCHA Project to ISDR started March 2005, $11m

• core system implementation - IOC lead• integrated risk knowledge• public awareness and education• community level approaches• project coordination

IOC in UN partnership

ISDR

IOC

WMO

Warning guidanceHazard assessmentMitigation

Communication (GTS)Multi-hazardPublic awareness

Preparedness

IOC: Core system implementation

• Governance– 2 intergovernmental coordination mtgs

• Capacity building– Expert advisory missions– Startup training programme

• Core system observational network– Interim advisory information service– Operational sea-level and seismic network

for tsunami monitoring

What is the System?

The system must be:

• Fully owned by Indian Ocean countries

• Based on international and multilateral cooperation

• Based on open and free data exchange

• Protect all countries in Indian Ocean

• Transparent and accountable to all countries

How does it function?

• Based on joint operation of international networks of detection connected with national tsunami warning centres

• High-level commitment by country with UN governance provided under the IOC

• Each nation is responsible for issuing warnings in their territory and for protecting its own population.

• National centres must have strong links with emergency preparedness authorities (national, provincial and local)

Indian Ocean Where are we now?

• A single system planned

All countries of the Indian Ocean participate• Interim Tsunami Advisory Information from centres

in Hawaii and Tokyo. • Natl 7/24 Tsunami Focal Points in 26 nations• Governance - UN/IOC through ICG/IOTWS• Full scope of task recognized:

multi-nation (28), multi-year (>3 to 10+ yrs) • Joint UN implementation:

IOC, WMO, ISDR, UNDP, UN-ESCAP

• March & April 2005: Considering the devastating tsunami on Dec 26th 2004, two International Coordination meetings on the Development of an IO TWS took place in Paris and Mauritius

Time schedule and milestones in 2005

Ja F M A M J Jul A S O N D

Implementation Interim System IOC-JMA-PTWC

16 National Assessment Missions WMO/ISDR/IOC/ADRC/JMA/UNESCAP

•March 3-8: UNESCO/IOC 1st Regional Technical Coordination Meeting, Paris•April 14-16: UNESCO/IOC 2nd Regional Coordination Meeting, Mauritius•June 21: IOC General Assembly, Paris: Formal establishment of ICG/IOTWS•August 3-5: ICG/IOTWS-I , Perth: focus on technical aspects•December 14-16: ICG/IOTWS-II, Hyderabad: recommendations & commitments

Sea level stations being deployed

Initial System for July 2006

Based on Existing:• Network of 26 (of 29) National Information Centres [7/24]• Tsunami Focal Points [7/24]Slowly evolving into a• Network of Tsunami Warning Centres in charge of National Mitigation Plans (Assessment, Warning, Preparedness)

Need to develop Regional Instrumental Networks:• Improved Seismographic network (faster and more accurate detection of earthquakes through denser network, better real-time source characterization)• Real-time network of sea-level stations (faster detection of tsunamis through denser network)

Core IOTWS Seismographic Network Agreed on Stations

Operational Planned

May-Sept, 2005: 16 missions

To be scheduled, 2006:

6 missions

Maldives, Djibouti,East Timor, Iran,

South Africa, Yemen

Not requesting: Australia, France,

India, Singapore, United Kingdom

IOTWS: National Assessment and Plans

Nat.AssesNational

Plan Nat.AssesNational

Plan

AUSTRALIA Not required Available MYANMAR Done Required

BANGLADESH Done Required OMAN Done Required

COMORES Done   Required PAKISTAN Done Required

DJIBOUTI 2006   Required TIMOR (EAST) 2006 Required

FRANCE Not required Available SAUDI ARABIA Not requested 

INDIA Not required Available SEYCHELLES Done Required

INDONESIA Done   Available SINGAPORE Not required Available

IRAN 2006   Required   SOMALIA Done Required

KENYA Done   Required SOUTH AFRICA 2006 Required

MADAGASCAR Done   Required SRI LANKA Done Required

MALAYSIA Done   Available UAE Not requested

MALDIVES 2006   Required TANZANIA Done Required

MAURITIUS Done   Required THAILAND Done Required

MOZAMBIQUE Done   Required UK Not required  

  YEMEN 2006 Required

Questionnaire sections5 Tsunami Mitigation Categories:

• Contact information

• Authority and coordination

• Warnings and tsunami monitoring

• Warning response and Emergency Action / Preparedness

• Hazard and risks

• Community/Individual awareness and preparedness

• Tsunami response to 28 march 2005 M8.5 earthquake off Sumatra, Indonesia

• Overall enhancement of national capabilities to mitigate impact of hazards (WMO)

Summary: Regional CB Needs

• Assistance - harmonize existing practices / protocolsData collection, monitoring, evaluation, warning commInternational standards and interoperability

• Assistance to establish real-time regional / local seismic and sea level networks with real-time data acquisition, display, and analysis to support the monitoring / detection

• Equipment upgrade and capacity building in Global Telecommunication System (GTS) to NMS

• Training and software for numerical modeling Inundation maps, Evaluation of hazards / vulnerability

Summary: Regional CB Needs

• Educational modules and training - multi-hazards Targeted various stakeholders, incl school curriculum

• Equipment upgrades / capacity building utilization of satellite information - Multi-hazard EWS incl tsunami

• Disseminate marine warnings

• Strengthen GIS capabilities and applications to disaster management to aid in planning, emergency response, and post-disaster recovery

• Electronic awareness materials Adaptable for language, culture, local commTsunamis and other disasters

The Challenge

• We essentially know what is needed at the country level in 16 countries

Work for rest of countries will be completed in 2006 (6 countries)

• ICG is requesting a Comprehensive IOTWS Plan, including the Country level

• Therefore, we need the development of the National Plans at the Country level.

EarthquakEarthquake Tsunamie Tsunami

Tsunami Tsunami Warning Warning CenterCenter

International - Regional Framework

National Warning System Public Awareness

National Government

Local Government

PeoplePeople

Mass Media

Where is Evacuation Route?

What is Tsunami?

TSUNAMI Early Warning Overview

Cabinet Office Japan

• Hazard Risk Assessment• Warning Guidance• Mitigation - Preparedness

A perfect warning will be useless

if people do not know what to do

in case of an emergency

Awareness and preparedness at the country level is essential

ICG/IOTWS Working Groups

WG 1: Seismic Measurements, Data Collection, and Exchange

WG 2: Sea Level Data Collection and Exchanges, including Deep-Ocean Tsunami Detection

WG 3: Risk assessment

WG 4: Modeling, Forecasting and Scenario Development

WG 5: Interoperable Advisory and Warning Centres

WG 6 (proposed): Mitigation, Preparedness and Response, incl NGO

WG 6: Mitigation, Preparedness and Response

• MS ensure development / DM officials participate in ICG / WG, incl Red Cross/Red Crescent, NGOs, community groups, private sector

• Develop overall strategy document based on initial ISDR initial draft – consistent with IOC core system implementation & WG TORs

ISDR to continue to work with IOC & partners

• National level, coordination with downstream stakeholders facilitated through DRR national platforms (Hyogo Framework 2005-2015) to ensure broader based ownership

Mitigation, Preparedness and Response: Terms of Reference

Focus national efforts for effective tsunami warning:

• Promote, mainstream good practices into development planning / practice: policies / institutions, sectors, risk mitigation, recovery

• Promote, support engagement of NTWC / experts in national platforms for DRR, all-hazard integration, DM

• Provide of guidelines, tools, best practices to DM sector: public information, education, training, communications, evacuation planning / drills, emergency mgmt

• Communicate ICG WG results to development and DM communities and vice versa (needs to WG)

:STAKEHOLDER COORDINATION

• June 21-30, 2005: the 23rd IOC General Assembly decided resolutions on the establishment of a global and three regional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups on TEWS (XXIII-12 to XXXIII-15) for

- the Indian Ocean (ICG/IOTWS)

- the Caribbean (ICG/CARTWS)

- the NE Atlantic and Med (ICG/NEAMTWS)

Three more regions to coordinate

• 03-05 Aug 2005: ICG/IOTWS-I, Perth• 21-22 Nov 2005: ICG/NEAMTWS-I, Rome• 14-16 Dec 2005: ICG/IOTWS-II, Hyderabad• 10-12 Jan 2006: ICG/CARTWS-I, Barbadosand to come:

• May 2006: ICG/ITSU-XXI, Melbourne• May 2006: ICG/NEAMTWS-II, Nice• July/August 2006: ICG/IOTWS-III, Bali• Dec 2006: ICG/CARTWS-II, Venezuela

Intergovernmental Coordination Group meetings

Beyond immediate response: Multi-Hazard Platforms

• Storm – surges (IOC, WMO, JCOMM)

• Tropical storms (WMO, JCOMM)

• Improving Storm and cyclones track forecasts (IOC, WMO, JCOMM)

• Ice Hazard (IOC, WMO, JCOMM)

• Oil Spills (IOC, WMO, UNEP)

For further information see:

http://ioc.unesco.org/indotsunami

http://ioc3.unesco.org/neamtws

http://ioc3.unesco.org/cartws

http://ioc3.unesco.org/ptws

International Tsunami Information Centre

http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic

IOC Executive Secretary: Dr. Patricio BernalIOC Executive Secretary: Dr. Patricio Bernal IOC Tsunami Unit: Dr. Uli Wolf Masahiro Yamamoto Bernardo Aliaga

IOC ITIC / Tsunami Unit: Dr. Laura Kong IOC ITIC / Tsunami Unit: Dr. Laura Kong PTWS Secretariat: l.kong@unesco.org PTWS Secretariat: l.kong@unesco.org

www.tsunamiwave.info www.tsunamiwave.info Chair, Vice-Chair: Chile, CanadaChair, Vice-Chair: Chile, Canada

IOTWS: ioc.unesco.org/indotsunamiIOTWS: ioc.unesco.org/indotsunami Secretariat: IOC Regional Office, PerthSecretariat: IOC Regional Office, Perth

Chair: IndiaChair: India Vice-Chairs: Indonesia, MauritiusVice-Chairs: Indonesia, Mauritius

IOC Activities – 2006

• Coordinated Implementation Plan - partners• ICG/IOTWS WGs (coordinate, facilitate,

synergize across other regions)• Upgrade/install GLOSS and other sea level,

seismic network - ongoing• TsunamiTeacher - May 2006

electronic, dynamic training modules + resources (Media, Education, Public/Private Sector)

• Customizeable awareness materials Adapt for language, culture, local communityIOC-ADRC Educational Curricula - Thailand, April 2006

IOC Activities –2006

Capacity Building / Training- Seismology – USGS, FDSN/IRIS GSN, AfricaArray

Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan, India, Maldives, East Africa /West IO

- Numerical Modeling – Expert scientists, I - Sources / Propagation, May (Malaysia, Belgium)II - Inundation / Evacuation, Sept-Dec

- TsunamiTeacher Workshops – up tp 8 countries, May- Tsunami Warning Operations and Emergency Response -

Indonesia, Thailand, Mozambique, Mauritius, etc- RANET Communications - warning centre to local

communities - May 2006- Risk and vulnerability assessment - use of GIS tools

ESRI - IOC, April, 2006

ICG/PTWS - South China Sea

• Synergies with ICG/IOTWS WGs

• Interim Tsunami Advisory Information ServiceJMA NW Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center expandsClose coordination with PTWCStart 1 April 2006

• IOC-Malaysia MOSTI, 27-28 April, Kuala LumpurRoundtable Symposium on Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards and Risks

• Pacific-wide Tsunami Drill, 16-17 May 2006PTWC initiated2 sources - Philippine (Pacific) and ChileUNDP to sponsor observers to Philippines