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Designing Science Indicators
that relate to Output
and have Impact
Scott Tiffin
Director, Research & International Affairs
School of Business, Universidad Adolfo Ibanez, Santiago, Chile
Problems with Science Indicators in Latin America
• General public and industry are not interested in this topic, so there is very limited and erratic support to creating and diffusing them.
• Until this changes, there will be very few consistent, complete, accurate, detailed and useful data and indicators in the region.
• There are only limited signs of this changing
Solution
• Design simple science indicators focussing explicitly on outputs of competitive interest to political and commercial stakeholders
1. Measure Cities
• Research, innovation and knowledge-based employment occur almost exclusively in cities, and the the clusters based in cities
• Cities in LA are starting to compete against each other
• It is possible that some cities can be attracted to this area as a new vision more fully than states
Cities, Ranking and Business are Big News
2. Use ISI and US Patents
• Standardized data exist for all cities of the region over many years, measuring high quality scientific and technological activities in all domains, at the city level
• Recently measured 50 cities over 17 years, using Web resources, for as an introductory exercise, for possible publication in Scientometrics,
Where Research is Found
> 1,000/year> 100/year and < 1,000/year< 100/year
# ISI publications
Where Innovation is Found> 100> 25 and < 100< 25
Total # US patents 1986-2002
Trends of Research in Leading Cities
Graph 3 - Largest Producers
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Period 1986 - 2002
An
nu
al #
of
Pu
blic
atio
ns
Buenos Aires Santiago Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Mex icoCity Campinas
Innovation LeadersGraph 11 - Leading Patent Cities
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Period 1986 - 2002
# o
f P
aten
ts
Mex icoCity Monterrey Sao Paulo Rio de Janeiro
Buenos Aires Santiago Caracas
Small Innovation Performers
Graph 15 - Central America
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Period 1986 - 2002
# o
f P
aten
ts
San Jose San Salv ador Tegucigalpa Managua
Guatamela Panama City
Correlations and Testing Florida’s Hypothesis
Graph 18 - Correlations between Total Publications and Total Patents
Campinas
Santiago
Monterrey
Rio de Janerio
Caracas
Buenos Aires
Sao Paulo
Mexico City
Porto Alegre
Bogota
Leon
La Plata
R2 = 0.6701
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Total Patents
Tota
l Pu
blic
atio
ns
High-tech clustering is more likely in cities with diversity, tolerance and creative arts. Key proxy measures are concentration of artists and homosexuals
R2 hard science only = .679R2 all research = .670
Removing major outliers increases R2
& puts results slightly in favour of Florida
3. Create Rankings
• Ranking indices create regional marketplace and stimulate competition
• All ranking schemes are seriously flawed approximations, but the data behind them can be strong and support serious analysis
• Institutions invest significant free time to input their data to well known ranking systems and even compete to pay for entry into them
Cha
nge
in R
egio
nal
Res
earc
h M
arke
t Sha
re
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4
São PauloCampinas
São CarlosPorto AlegreMexicoCity
Rio de JaneiroBelo Horizonte
CuritibaCuernavaca
ViçosaSão Jose dos Campos
FlorianopolisPuebla
MontevideoFortaleza
BrasiliaHavanaBogota
LeonGuadalajara
MedellínSalvador
QuitoMaracaibo
TolucaTemuco
MonterreyLa Paz
CaliMaracay
GuayaquilAsuncion
San SalvadorCochabambaTegucigalpa
ManaguaSan Juan
Panama CityConcepcion
Santo DomingoValparaiso
Guatemala CitySan JoseLa Plata
MendozaLima
CordobaCaracasSantiago
Buenos Aires
City Rank
Performance Score (sum
of sub scores)
Regional Concentration
of Publications
Regional Concentration of Patents x 3
Publication Intensity x
500
Patent Intensity x
200,000Caracas 1 46.01 7.14 21.45 1.58 22.98Buenos Aires 2 36.58 25.01 27.63 1.41 7.54Sao Paulo 3 36.49 33.78 28.56 1.55 6.38Sao Carlos 4 34.34 4.82 0.84 18.28 15.22Viçosa 5 32.78 1.23 0.33 14.41 18.04Toluca 6 29.13 0.21 1.08 0.35 27.7Leon 7 22.91 1.5 5.73 0.88 16.3Campinas 8 22.68 9.97 4.08 6.24 12.36Monterrey 9 19.97 0.97 9.6 0.21 10.16Rio de Janeiro 10 19.89 16.02 14.64 0.97 4.28Santiago 11 14.98 16.08 8.07 2.01 4.9Cuernavaca 12 13.47 2.46 3.45 3.2 6.82México City 13 13.16 28.56 10.44 0.98 1.74Porto Alegre 14 12.26 5.53 4.71 1.47 6.08Sao Jose dos Campos 15 10.35 0.86 1.2 1.17 7.98San Jose 16 10.26 1.88 2.49 1.05 6.72Bogota 17 9.67 2.32 6.18 0.25 3.24La Plata 18 8.84 6.51 0.57 5.79 2.48Montevideo 19 7.66 2.61 2.1 1.12 4.42Mendoza 20 7.11 0.92 1.35 0.72 5.04Havana 21 6.2 4.61 2.1 1.28 2.82Cordoba 22 6.12 4.48 1.14 2.22 2.76Puebla 23 5.53 2.27 1.71 0.82 3Guadalajara 24 5.49 1.32 2.67 0.26 2.56Curitiba 25 5.19 2.07 1.77 0.66 2.76Panama City 26 4.86 0.62 0.84 0.54 3.48Lima 27 4.77 2.14 3.12 0.21 1.44Belo Horizonte 28 4.44 3.87 1.86 0.78 1.8Guatemala 29 4.35 0.82 1.35 0.34 2.66San Juan 30 4.07 2.04 0.84 1.09 2.14Maracaibo 31 4.03 0.98 1.14 0.43 2.46Quito 32 3.66 0.87 1.02 0.4 2.24Florianopolis 33 3.28 2.02 0.06 2.8 0.42Concepcion 34 2.81 2.22 0.24 1.65 0.92Cochabamba 35 2.58 0.1 0.39 0.11 2.08Brasilia 36 2.41 2.77 0.45 1.1 0.86Salvador 37 2.36 1.54 0.84 0.42 1.1Cali 38 2.27 1.56 0.69 0.5 1.08Valparaiso 39 2.17 1.23 0.24 0.97 0.96Temuco 40 2.01 0.48 0.06 1.19 0.76Guayaquil 41 1.97 0.2 0.75 0.06 1.16Maracay 42 1.87 0.34 0.33 0.28 1.26Medellin 43 1.64 0.91 0.63 0.23 0.78Santo Domingo 44 1.61 0.25 0.63 0.08 0.9Asuncion 45 1.6 0.23 0.33 0.17 1.1La Paz 46 1.41 0.54 0.33 0.28 0.8San Salvador 47 1.02 0.1 0.24 0.06 0.72Fortaleza 48 0.85 1.41 0.18 0.41 0.26Managua 49 0.63 0.2 0.12 0.13 0.38Tegucigalpa 50 0.37 0.16 0.06 0.11 0.2
Com
posi
te R
anki
ng
4. Measure Entrepreneurship
• Stakeholders are only interested in output measures that relate to jobs, enterprise creation and competitive advantage
• Entrepreneurship is a hot topic across LA
Growth of Incubators (Brazil)
Babson’s Global Entrepreneurship
Monitor• Started in 1999
• Annual
• Has grown to 41 countries
• Self-financing
• Entry cost is about 35$K US
• Results are headline news in major national newsmedia and commented on by presidential offices
The Task Ahead
• There is no urban data source for entrepreneurship comparable to ISI and US Patents
• I am promoting a proposal to build an Observatory for Urban Innovation and Entrepreneurship to generate and diffuse such information, and to gather research funding