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Designing Bidding Strategies. Dmytro Tykhonov. Seller. Buyer. Counter-offer?. Price: €500,000. buyer. Genius. Strategies. Preferences. seller. Opponent Preferences?. Partially shared. Open. Closed. Outcome Space. Price: €500,000. Pareto frontier. Price: €300,000. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Designing Bidding StrategiesDmytro Tykhonov
Counter-offer?
Seller
Price: €500,000
Buyer
Genius
Strategies
Preferences
buyer
seller
Opponent Preferences?
Open ClosedPartially shared
Outcome Space
My Utility
Util
ity o
f Opp
one
nt
Paretofrontier
Price: €500,000
Price: €300,000
Price: €350,000
5
Fundamental Problem of Negotiation
My Utility
Util
ity o
f Opp
one
nt
My Utility
Util
ity o
f Opp
one
nt
Agreement
Learn opponent’s preferences
Adapt strategy
6
Predictable versusUnpredictable Preferences
Predictable preferences• Most people prefer to have
more rather than less money.
Monotonic preference Logarithmic curve for money
Unpredictable preferences
• I like blue more than red, you like red more than blue.
Varies from person to personNot quite as well-behaved
money
utility
red
utility
blue green …
• Higher > Lower Grade• Less > More Work
• Peugeot > Ford• Swim > Cycle Ride
Learn opponent’s preferences
Learning Model of Opponent Preferences
My Utility
Util
ity o
f Opp
one
nt
Negotiation moves by Opponent
Util
ity
Hypotheses
delivery date
Learn opponent’s preferences
Nice Matching Strategy
My Utility
Uti
lity o
f O
pp
on
en
t
matches
Next bid on the Pareto
Pareto efficient frontier
Mirrored bid
Adapt strategy
Response to a selfish move
My Utility
Util
ity o
f O
ppon
ent
matches
Next bid on the Pareto
Pareto efficient frontier
Adapt strategy
Human vs Computer Negotiations
GENIUS
Future Work
• Explanation of bidding advice: • here is a trade-off• signaling (tit-for-tat)
• Multi-party negotiation
• Improving the strategy
• Competition of negotiating agents in GENIUS