17
Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways a Dr Maria Mikela Chatzimichailidou a Dr Arnab Majumdar b Dr Alberto MarDneE b,c Prof Leo Van Dongen a Imperial College London, UK, Dep of Civil & Env Eng, LRF Transport Risk Management Centre b University of Twente, NL, Dep of Design, ProducDon & Management, Maintenance Eng c NS-NedTrain, NL Imperial College London & Lloyd’s Register FoundaDon

Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    2

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

Design&PlanforMaintenance:ASTAMP-basedDissimilarityIndicator

forRailways

aDrMariaMikelaChatzimichailidouaDrArnabMajumdarbDrAlbertoMarDneEb,cProfLeoVanDongen

aImperialCollegeLondon,UK,DepofCivil&EnvEng,LRFTransportRiskManagementCentrebUniversityofTwente,NL,DepofDesign,ProducDon&Management,MaintenanceEngcNS-NedTrain,NL

ImperialCollegeLondon&Lloyd’sRegisterFoundaDon

Page 2: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

TheProject§  Partners-  ImperialCollegeLondon,UK-  UniversityofTwente,NL-  LuleaTechnicalUniversity,SE

§  DuraDon:October2016-June2018

§  1stprojectmeeDng:March2017

ICL&LRF

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

Page 3: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

ImportanceofMaintenance§  Inadequatemaintenanceàdisastrousconsequencesforlife&

property(Zerbstetal,2005)

§  Lifecyclecostsofrollingstock:highestcostsformaintenance≈1.5Dmes>newbuildingcar(VanDongen,2016)

§  Whysohigh?Withdrawalofcoachescauseshighcost,complaints&displeasure[Ex.LondonUnderground,3rdDec2016]

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

ICL&LRF

Page 4: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways
Page 5: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

§  (a)Fragmented(e.g.rollingstock,depots&tools;wide-spread);(b)highly(ifnotenDrely)dependentonhumanexperts

§  (a)Nodesignfocusonmaintainability;(b)nocriDcal&frequentqualitychecksonproduct

§  End-userdoesnotparDcipateinthedesign&producDonprocess§  RetrospecDvemeasures:nodesiredprojectresultsàmakechanges§  UnderesDmatedimpactofmaintainer&operatorindesign&

producDonprocessØ  Latemaintenanceàhighcosts;longleadDmesofrepairs;safety

Maintenanceas-isICL&LRF

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

Page 6: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

RailwayObjecDves§  Design&planformaintenance

§  Dynamicmaintenanceplanning;constantajenDonVSiniDalinvestment

§  Usewarningindicators;diagnosesymptoms&failures;real-Dmemonitoring(i.e.GOTCHAsystem)

§  Maintenancemanagementshallunderstandvarious“error”producingcondiDons&serveasaninputtomodifypolicies&developbejerguidelinesforrailwaymaintenancetasks

ICL&LRF

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

Page 7: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

“Thecorevalueofmaintenancedecisionmakingisthedetermina5onofthevaluesofallop5onsthedecisionmakerhastomakegoodtrade-offsbetweentheavailableop5ons”(Tiddensetal,2015)

“Advancedmaintenancetechniquesareprac5cesthatcansupportmaintenancedecisionmakingbytakingthecurrentandfuturestateofassetsintoaccount”(Tiddensetal,2015)

“Uncertain5esinthetechniqueanduncertain5esintheinputdataleadtouncertain5esinthepredic5on”(Boetal.,2010)

“resultsfromthetechnique,namelydetec5on,diagnosisandprognosiscanbeusedtoop5misemaintenancedecisions”(Tiddensetal,2015)

“predic5onsareespeciallyusefulwhenthesystemdeteriora5onvariesbetweenthevariousopera5onalsitua5onstheassetisexposedto”(Tiddensetal,2015)

“Degrada5on-basedpredic5onsoffertheopportunitytoassessthecurrentstateoftheequipmentand,basedonthetrendingoftheprognos5cparameter,makees5ma5onsoftheremaininglife”(Tiddensetal,2015)

“thequalityofthepredic5onhastobevery-high.”(Tiddensetal,2015)

Page 8: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

xDifferencebetweenthesystemas-imagined&

...

thesystemas-done

ProblemStatement

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

ICL&LRF

Design&Maintenance

xAddressingmaintenanceretrospecDvely

Page 9: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

Maintenance

SafetyOperaDonalexcellenceDesign

DESIGNFORSAFETYICL&LRF

“MaintenanceEngineeringmakesconnec5ons”(VanDongen,2016)

Page 10: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

TheNeedAnindicaDonofthedeviaDons,variability&thedifferencesbetweenthesystemstates/versionsaimingtoupdateoperators’(mental)models,adjust

thesystemprocesses&composiDon

ICL&LRF

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

by‘dragging’maintenance&systemmodificaDonsclosertothedesignphase

àproac/vemaintenance-orientedmethodology

Page 11: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

MaintenanceasaDriver

§  Maintenance-driven(re)designwithSTAMP

§  QuanDfythesystemstatesfortheenDresystem’slife-cycle§  Definethedesiredsystemstatetocomparewiththeactual

§  STPA&tools,e.g.ifunacceptableeventàCAST

ICL&LRF

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

Page 12: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

IndicaDonofDissimilarity

DisIn1DisIn3

DisIn4

DisIn2

ICL&LRF

(VanDongen,2016)

Page 13: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

ICL&LRF

*Designers&Engineers

poolofrequirements

*Operators*Passengers *Suppliers&

Techavailability

*Maintenance(STPA,CAST)

*Safety&Security(STPA,

STPA-sec)

*Humanfactors(EWaSAP,Dokasetal,2013)

*Businessanalysts&Lawers

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

Ideally

Page 14: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

NextSteps1.Definethestatusestobecompared

§  Thedesiredsystem-  STPA&toolslistsafety,security,maintenance,humanfactors

requirements-  Listotherrequirements(e.g.stakeholders,designers&engineers,

analysts&lawyers)àbringasapallinterestedparDestothetable

§  Thesystemas-is:matchittothedesiredone2.CalculatetheDisInd(s)3.Interpretthevalues4.Developastrategytorespondtodistantsystemstatuses

ICL&LRF

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

Page 15: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

AboutthisWork§  Preparatory&exploratory;notanotherapplicaDon,butasuggesDonofa

STAMP-basedstrategy&indicatorforrailwaymaintenance

§  DisInfollowstheRiskSOAP*logic;validaDonoftheraDonalemade

§  DisInbetweendifferentsystemstatusesasameasurementofthedeviaDonoftheonestatus(e.g.as-designed)fromtheother(e.g.as-built)

§  DisInsuccessivevaluesasanindicaDonofthesystem’sperformance,i.e.enhancementordegradaDonofsystemproperDesthroughoutitslife

*IntroducingRiskSOAPtocommunicatethedistributedsituaDonawarenessofasystemaboutsafetyissues:anapplicaDontoaroboDcsystem(ChatzimichailidouandDokas,Ergonomics,2015)

ICL&LRF

Page 16: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

AddedValueforIndustriesMaketheManagementhappy!Distanceofsystemversionsfromtheirbenchmarkinasinglenumber;improvement&maintenancestrategy§  DisInasa:-  selecDoncriterionbetweenalternaDveversionsofthesamesystem-  decision-makingtoolwhenevaluaDngsystemchangeswithreferenceto

thebenchmarksystem-  tooltoplansystemcomposiDonmodificaDonstoshortenthedistance

betweencomparedsystemstates/versions-  criterionforevaluaDngmodificaDonsthatmightaffecttheminimum

acceptableperformancelevelofthesystemunderconsideraDon

ICL&LRF

[email protected] March‘17– MITSTAMPWS

Page 17: Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based …psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/...Design & Plan for Maintenance: A STAMP-based Dissimilarity Indicator for Railways

ThankyouquesDons&suggesDons

DrMikelaChatzimichailidou

[email protected]@gmail.comhjp://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/m.chatzimichailidou

ImperialCollegeLondon&Lloyd’sRegisterFoundaDon