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Design & Management for the Built Environment in Design & Management for the Built Environment in Design & Management for the Built Environment in Design & Management for the Built Environment in
Response to Climate ChangeResponse to Climate ChangeResponse to Climate ChangeResponse to Climate ChangeDr Xiaoming WangDr Xiaoming WangDr Xiaoming WangDr Xiaoming Wang
Senior Principal Scientist and Adjunct ProfessorSenior Principal Scientist and Adjunct ProfessorSenior Principal Scientist and Adjunct ProfessorSenior Principal Scientist and Adjunct Professor
Theme Leader, Sustainable Cities and CoastsTheme Leader, Sustainable Cities and CoastsTheme Leader, Sustainable Cities and CoastsTheme Leader, Sustainable Cities and CoastsTheme Leader, Sustainable Cities and CoastsTheme Leader, Sustainable Cities and CoastsTheme Leader, Sustainable Cities and CoastsTheme Leader, Sustainable Cities and Coasts
National Climate Adaptation FlagshipNational Climate Adaptation FlagshipNational Climate Adaptation FlagshipNational Climate Adaptation Flagship
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation (CSIRO)(CSIRO)(CSIRO)(CSIRO)
AustraliaAustraliaAustraliaAustralia
In 2008, for the first time in history more than half of the world population
lived in cities. The most populous 600 cities in the world are home to 25%
of the world’s population and produce around 60% of global GDP...
By 2030, only 17 years from now, it is estimated that 5 billion people or 80%
of humanity will be urbanised. It is little wonder then that the current era
has been called the ‘Triumph of the City’
- from ‘State of Australian Cities Report 2013’
Reliable and durable built assets required to deliver
uninterrupted services for now and future
Climate change impact on infrastructure
durability - change in carbonation-induced
corrosion initiation
0.0E+00
5.0E-02
1.0E-01
1.5E-01
2.0E-01
2.5E-01
3.0E-01
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Ch
an
ge
in
In
itia
tio
n P
rob
ab
ilit
y
A1FI
GCMs-A1FI
A1B
GCMs-A1B
550ppm
GCMs-550ppm
0.0E+00
5.0E-02
1.0E-01
1.5E-01
2.0E-01
2.5E-01
3.0E-01
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
YearC
ha
ng
e i
n I
nit
iati
on
Pro
ba
bil
ity
A1FI
GCMs-A1FI
A1B
GCMs-A1B
550ppm
GCMs-550ppm
DARTropical
MELTemperate
1.5E-01
2.0E-01
2.5E-01
3.0E-01
Ch
an
ge
in
In
itia
tio
n P
rob
ab
ilit
y
A1FI
GCMs-A1FI
A1B
GCMs-A1B
550ppm
GCMs-550ppm
DAR
Year Year
0.0E+00
5.0E-02
1.0E-01
1.5E-01
2.0E-01
2.5E-01
3.0E-01
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Ch
an
ge
in
In
itia
tio
n P
rob
ab
ilit
y
A1FI
GCMs-A1FI
A1B
GCMs-A1B
550ppm
GCMs-550ppm
0.0E+00
5.0E-02
1.0E-01
1.5E-01
2.0E-01
2.5E-01
3.0E-01
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Ch
an
ge
in
In
itia
tio
n P
rob
ab
ilit
y
A1FI
GCMs-A1FI
A1B
GCMs-A1B
550ppm
GCMs-550ppm
SYDTemperate
HOBCold
Wang, X., M. Stewart, M Nguyen (2011). "Impact of climate change on corrosion and damage to concrete infrastructure in Australia." Climatic Change
110(3): 941-957.
0.0E+00
5.0E-02
1.0E-01
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Ch
an
ge
in
In
itia
tio
n P
rob
ab
ilit
y
Vulnerability of timber in ground
contact to fungal decay under
climate change
Change in median decay rate of class 3
timber materials at various emission
Scenario
Wang, C.-h. and X. Wang (2012). "Vulnerability of timber in ground contact to fungal decay under climate change." Climatic Change 115(777-794).
Vulnerability of metals to
corrosion under climate change
M Nguyen, X Wang, B Leicester (2012). An Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Atmospheric Corrosion Rates of Steel Structures. Corrosion
Engineering Science and Technology. 48(5): 359-369
Building energy efficiency
deteriorating in tropical and
temperate areas under increasingly
warming climate
Heating dominating
Cooling dominating
X Wang, D Chen and Z Ren (2011). Global warming and its implication to carbon emission reduction strategies for residential buildings. Building and Environment, 46: 871-883.
X Wang, D Chen and Z Ren (2010). Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Residential Building Heating and Cooling Energy Requirement in Australia. Building and Environment,
45(7), pp.1663-1682.
Cooling dominating
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000Change in YLL by Cold Days
Change in YLL by Hot Days
Ye
ar
of
Life
Lo
ss
(ye
ars
)
1oC 2oC 3oC 4oC
The Impact of Warming on Years of Life Lost in Brisbane
-6000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1 2 3 4oC oC oC oCTota
l Ye
ar
of
Life
Lo
ss
(ye
ars
)
C Huang, A G Barnett, X Wang, S Tong (2012). Years of Life Loss due to Cold and Hot Climates in Brisbane, Australia. Nature Climate Change, 2: 265-270.
A reliability assessment of railway
track buckling during an extreme
heatwave and implications of
climate change
Increasing
Intensity of
heatwave
Heatwave Load
Buckling of a railway track during the
January 2009 heatwave in Melbourne (Joe
Armao/Fairfax Syndication)
Critical Buckling Load
(capacity to resist bucking)
heatwave
Nguyen, M. N., X. Wang, CH Wang (2012). "A reliability assessment of railway track buckling during an extreme heatwave." Proceedings of the
Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit 226(5): 513-517
Failure
probability
Current and Future Risks of Transport
Infrastructure to Storm Surge
Current Risk to
Storm Surge
Future Risks to
Storm Surge
Khoo, Y B and Wang X. (2011). Assessment of Potential Inundation on Coastal Settlements and Transport Infrastructures of Selected Hotspots in
Queensland. CSIRO, Canberra. May, 2011
How could we build our built
environment, not only to minimise
the current risks, but also future
risks?
Integrate climate
adaptation into
development
Multi-scale Integration Of Climate
Adaptation into Build Asset Development
Systems
System of Systems
Policies
Regulations
National
Priorities
Engineering
En
ab
lin
g A
da
pta
tio
n t
o C
lim
ate
Ch
an
ge
Structures
Systems
Materials
Regulations
Planning
Standards En
ab
lin
g A
da
pta
tio
n t
o C
lim
ate
Ch
an
ge
Coastal inundation under sea
level rise in Southeast
Queensland (SEQ)
1
2
3
4
5
6
10 100 1000
Sto
rm T
ide (
m)
Average Recurrence Interval (Years)
Southeast Queensland Community Risk Reports, 2001
1.0 m sea level rise
0.8 m sea level rise
0.6 m sea level rise
0.4 m sea level rise
0.2 m sea level rise
Today
Increasing
magnitude
Increasing
frequency
Se
a le
vel
rise
X Wang, Y B Khoo and C-H Wang (2014). Risk Assessment and Decision-Making for Residential Housing Adapting to Increasing Storm-Tide Inundation due to Sea
Level Rise in Australia. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems
Current and future flood
risk profiles in SEQ
Current inundation map (1-
in-500 years)
X Wang, Y B Khoo and C-H Wang (2014). Risk Assessment and Decision-Making for Residential Housing Adapting to Increasing Storm-Tide Inundation due to Sea
Level Rise in Australia. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems
Impact of coastal inundation on
residential buildings in South East
Queensland, Australia
200
250
300
Mean Direct Loss
Dir
ec
t L
os
s (
AU
$),
mil
lio
n
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
0
50
100
150
Dir
ec
t L
os
s (
AU
$),
mil
lio
n
Year
X Wang, Y B Khoo and C-H Wang (2014). Risk Assessment and Decision-Making for Residential Housing Adapting to Increasing Storm-Tide Inundation due to Sea
Level Rise in Australia. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems
Effectiveness of structural
standard changes to reduce
future flood risks
20
40
60
80
Dir
ec
t L
os
s V
ari
ati
on
(%
)
Loss increase due to SLR
Loss reduction, floor height=1.57
Loss reduction, floor height=2.48
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Dir
ec
t L
os
s V
ari
ati
on
(%
)
Year
X Wang, Y B Khoo and C-H Wang (2014). Risk Assessment and Decision-Making for Residential Housing Adapting to Increasing Storm-Tide Inundation due to Sea
Level Rise in Australia. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems
Investment Decision-Making in Planning
Coastline
Sea
0
0.5
NP
V (
AU
D$B
)
Best long-term
return option
Best immediate
return option
Inundation The benefit of 2nd
option exceeds the 1st
optionprofit
Adaptation extent:
determine the spatial areas
where risk is high enough to
take adaptation actions
Land
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20601−
0.5− 1.00 m
1.82 m
2.00 m
Year
NP
V (
AU
D$B
)
Over-adaptation
option
‘South East Queensland Climate Adaption Research Initiatives‘ project , Sustainable Cities and Coasts, C H Wang, Yong Bing Khoo, X Wang
loss
Water security assessment integrating water supply and demand
modelling considering climate change in Makassar City
Stream FlowInflow-Demand/Mean Inflow
Scenario Assessment
• Climate change
• Population growth
• Demand per person
• Infrastructure serviceability
(leakage)
‘Sustainable Urban Development in Makassar City‘ project , CSIRO-DFAT Alliance, Dewi Kirono
Water supply infrastructure investment scenario planning
assessment considering population growth and demand increase
‘Sustainable Urban Development in Makassar City‘ project , CSIRO-DFAT Alliance, Dewi Kirono
Need more
investmentNeed more
investment
Development that meets the
needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own
needs.Brundtland Report (WCED, 1987)
Dr Xiaoming WangDr Xiaoming WangDr Xiaoming WangDr Xiaoming WangSenior Principal Scientist and Adjunct ProfessorSenior Principal Scientist and Adjunct ProfessorSenior Principal Scientist and Adjunct ProfessorSenior Principal Scientist and Adjunct Professor
Sustainable Cities and CoastsSustainable Cities and CoastsSustainable Cities and CoastsSustainable Cities and CoastsSustainable Cities and CoastsSustainable Cities and CoastsSustainable Cities and CoastsSustainable Cities and Coasts
CSIRO Climate Adaptation FlagshipCSIRO Climate Adaptation FlagshipCSIRO Climate Adaptation FlagshipCSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship
Graham Road, Highett, VIC 2190, AustraliaGraham Road, Highett, VIC 2190, AustraliaGraham Road, Highett, VIC 2190, AustraliaGraham Road, Highett, VIC 2190, Australia
EEEE: [email protected], TTTT: +61 3 9252 6328
