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Presented to the NZ Institute of Health Engineers, 2012, Queenstown, NZ
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12/04/2023 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 1
Design Frameworks for Analysis and Synthesis of
Complex SystemsHenk Roodt
NZ Institute of Healthcare Engineering - 2012
12/04/2023 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 2
Overview
FRAMEWORKS and MODELS?
Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic
Socio-Technical Systems are Complex
Design Frameworks to Cope with Complexity
Examples
Concluding Remarks
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Framework
Structure that underlies or support a system or a concept
Used for clarification and organisation
Highlights relationships between ideas, principles and rules
A collection of tools, metrics, processes that can be applied to a problem
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Model
A representation of reality*
A model is a representation of the appropriately selected characteristics of
a process or an entity**
To model a phenomenon is to construct a formal theory that describes and
explains it *Ackoff – 1968**Roodt - 2007
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Frameworks are related to Models
Frameworks
Construct
Models
Understand
Frameworks & models can help us to discover solutions to problems we face.
Both are core to design/systems engineering.
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Engineering is about Real Solutions
We do not like snake oil We appreciate templates
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Reminder from the French
If things were simple, word would have gotten round.
Jacques Derrida
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A Welsh Perspective
Cynefin Framework – Dave SnowdenCause and effect emerges, no right answer
Key: Patterns emergeProbe – Sense - Respond
Experts know thegood answers
Key: FactsSense - Analyse - Respond
Policy, process, rules, right answers (Best practice)
Things just happen
Key: High turbulanceAct - Sense - Respond
Catastrophic Breakdown
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Modern World – Socio-Technical
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Approach Philosophy
• Classic reductionism cannot work in a complex environment– The sum is greater than the parts (emergence)– Truncation/boundary setting problematic– Systems learn and adapt – no fixed target to try and resolve
• Use approaches that allow you to:– Probe– Sense– Respond
• Cascade the problem through successive analysis/synthesis loops to identify focus
• Relax – there will not be one right answer, only better and worse ones
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0: Solutions must fit User Requirements
Shortfall
Solution Definition
Solution Establishment
Solution Specification
Soluton Employment
OperationalEffectiveness
(OE)
RequiredOperationalCapability
(ROC)
FunctionalBaseline
(FBL)
OperatingBaseline
(OBL)
User Domain Solution Provider Domain
δ
Solution Life Cycle
Lifecycle framework from Oosthuizen and Roodt (2006)
Definition and design have long term impact
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1: Addressing the Need/Shortfall
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2: Model-based Engineering
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3: Cascading over Cynefin
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4: Qualitative Descriptions
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5: Develop Conceptual Functional Solutions
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6: V – Build it
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Summary Cascade
Grasp hierarchy of interactions• favour possibility above
probability (and thus allow for emergence)
• favour co-existence (consistency) above causality
• it must be able to rise above temporal truncation or bracketing (as complex systems are constantly evolving)
• embrace hierarchical relationships to allow for evolutionary development
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Cascade Qualitative
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Cascade Quantitative
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Brief Examples
• Developing a new military capability• Design of a new hospital facility • Frameworks for business
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Military
Need: Minimum Electronic Warfare Capability to deal with local and regional operations
CASCADE: Scenarios, Capabilities, Causalities
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Military
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Military
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Military
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Military
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Medical
Need (Hypothetical): PET facility for the SDHBCASCADE the socio-technical problemStage gate• Morphological Analysis of need
– Resources, societal needs, national situation, etc.• SOA synthesis• Pattern language design of facility• Agent based flow modelOutput:Development of final specification and project charter
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Medical
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Business
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Conclusion
• Design Engineering is often overlooked as a core process. • It is user-focussed if properly done.• It generates traceable output• It reduces risk significantly by surfacing issues when we
can still do something about it – at the start.• It has been shown that the design cycle may take only
20% of the full project time, but it impacts more than 80% of the total expenditure.
• Coupled to model based engineering, it allows try-before-buy and on-the-fly life cycle management.
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Questions
www.stonetostars.co.nz
Dunedin, NZ
For a full list of references to included material, contact [email protected]