Desert Xpress Aff 7WK

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1AC- InherencyObservation 1 is Inherency

Desert Xpress is asking for federal loans they are not sure if they will get them

OReiley 12- (Tim, DesertXpress project to California faces rising costs, The Las Vegas Review Journal, February 26, 2012,http://www.lvrj.com/business/desertxpress-project-to-california-faces-rising-costs-140473013.html)

DesertXpress executives four years ago pledged to secure 100 percent private funding, but cold markets forced

them to backtrack.Documents from the Federal Railroad Administration, which hired a consultant to review the company'sconfidential loan application, describe the potential sizeof the loan as $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion to be repaid over 35

years at government borrowing rates, which are generally lower than what commercial lenders charge. Adding DesertXpress to theportfolio would mark a departure for the federal loan program, which has generally financed existing smallfreight-rail projects such as laying new spur lines or reconfiguring switch yards . Its only passenger rail money has gone to Amtrakand for a station in Denver. DesertXpress hopes to borrow four times more than all loans made by the program since itscreation 10 years ago. DesertXpress has said it also expects to raise some private debt or equity, and to include"collateral that provides the appropriate amount of protection for the lender." However, it did not providespecifics, partly because the project is still in development.


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1AC Plan

Text The Federal Railroad Administration should approve loans for the construction ofDesert Xpress.


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1AC- California Economy

Our Advantage is the California Economy

Southern Californias Economy is on the brink right now unemployment is high, andimprovements are taking too long.

Reid 12 Reporter for Reuters (Tim, California economy to slowly improve in 2012: study, Reuters, 2/15/12, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/us-usa-economy-california-idUSTRE81E0G920120215)//Bwang

(Reuters) - California's economy, the biggest in the United States and the ninth-largest in the world, will see a slightimprovement in 2012 but a recovery in the crucial housing market is at least two years away, according to a report releasedon Wednesday. California was one of states hardest hit by the 2007-2009 recession and will continue to lag nationaleconomic indicators as the national picture improves, says the report by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC). Overall, thereport forecasts that California will see economic growth of 1.5 percent this year, and will add 200,000 jobs, with the unemployment rateaveraging 11.1 percent. That compares with a national average today of 8.3 percent unemployment , down from 9.1percent in January 2011. The Californian economy "will continue to heal but the process is uncomfortably long," thereport says. Unemployment will still be at 10.3 percent in 2013 , according to the LAEDC, a nonprofit economic development organization.The leading economic sectors in 2012 will be the booming technology sector centered around companies such as Google and Facebook in Silicon Valley, tourism, international

trade and the entertainment industry. But the crisis-hit housing sector in California, although expected to see some improvement, isstill a long way from full recovery, the study says. Southern California was particularly hard hit by the collapse in thehousing market and the financial crash of 2008, with an epidemic of foreclosures . Even today, 44 percent of homeowners in theregion owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. "As the calendar turned to 2012, the timeline for recovery in the housing market continued to be measured in

years and not in months," the report says. BUYERS WANTED A huge backlog of foreclosed homes that have yet to be sold continues to depress house prices, which increasesthe number of mortgage holders with negative equity. In 2011 home prices in California actually fell compared to 2010. "To date, rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and goodaffordability have not been enough to entice buyers back to the market," the report states. "What happens in 2012 will depend on how fast lenders work through theirforeclosure files." In addition, the report says, "tighter mortgage lending standards and fundamentals such as slow job growth and flagging consumer confidence have

dampened demand" in the housing sector. The LAEDC forecasts a better housing market for California in 2012 but with significant risks remaining ,especially if job growth fails to accelerate.Foreclosures and negative equity "remain significant hurdles torecovery," it adds. The Californian economy is so large that its performance is inextricably linked to the nationaland global economies, the reports says. California has fallen from eighth to ninth in the list of the world's largesteconomies, behind Brazil and Italy, but still ahead of India, Canada, Russia, Spain and Australia, according to the study

Specifically, Southern California and Nevadas economies are fragile jobs are key to recovery

Berns 11- (Dave, Southern California joblessness a drag on Las Vegas economy, Vegas Inc, June 20, 2011, http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2011/jul/20/southern-california-joblessness-drag-las-vegas-eco/)

Southern Nevada will continue to be hampered because Southern Californias economy is expected to remainmired in double-digit unemployment, although there are signs of improvement in the Golden State, which Las Vegas heavily depends on. Meantime,potentially higher interest rates sparked by the nations debt crisis could see consumers paying more foradjustable rate mortgages, outstanding home equity loans and credit cards that carry variable interest rates, allof which could further suppress regional consumer spending. All of that money is going to come out of(personal) income, and its certainly a threat to places like Las Vegas , said economic forecaster Jeremy Aguero of Las Vegas-based

Applied Analysis.A report released today by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. points to a rebound in entertainmentindustry employment, with a boost in filming, advertising, original cable TV programming and increasedinternational trade and tourism driving the numbers. Los Angeles Countys unemployment rate is expected to beno lower than 11.5 percent next year, which would be down from 11.9 percent in May, but would likely drag on the economic fortunes of the Strip, wheretourist visitation remain down from its record highs of 2007 when nearly 40 million people visited Las Vegas. A June report by UCLA Senior Economist Jerry Nickelsburg

noted thatjob growth will not push Californias unemployment rate below 10 percent until the second quarter of2013, reaching 9.2 percent by the end of that year. If those people are facing double-digit unemploymenttheyre certainly not going to come here, and theyre not going to spend the money like they used to , said AlanSchlottmann, UNLV economics professor. Travel trends between Southern California and Las Vegas have improved. Thirty-six percent of Southern Nevadas visitors are fromCalifornia. Half of them are from Southern California, and the vast majority drive to Las Vegas. The number of flights to McCarran International Airport is rising and vehicletraffic between the two regions has climbed during the past two years, approaching 2007 levels. Yet, visitors spend less than they did at the height of the boom years, and

casino play has become increasingly dependent on high rollers who prefer table games rather than slot machines. When we look at the economy from30,000 feet, it is going to look bad. Aguero said. When you look at it from a historical perspective, it is better but not good.

Improvements in Southern Californias economy will depend on Jobs and Fiscal Discipline

Lifsher 12 Economy reporter for the LA times (Marc, California economic reports forecast modest growth, LA times, 2/15/12,http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/15/business/la-fi-california-economy-20120215)//Bwang (Los Angeles County is in California)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/us-usa-economy-california-idUSTRE81E0G920120215http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/us-usa-economy-california-idUSTRE81E0G920120215http://www.reuters.com/places/australiahttp://www.reuters.com/places/australiahttp://www.vegasinc.com/news/2011/jul/20/southern-california-joblessness-drag-las-vegas-eco/http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2011/jul/20/southern-california-joblessness-drag-las-vegas-eco/http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/15/business/la-fi-california-economy-20120215)//Bwanghttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/us-usa-economy-california-idUSTRE81E0G920120215http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/us-usa-economy-california-idUSTRE81E0G920120215http://www.reuters.com/places/australiahttp://www.vegasinc.com/news/2011/jul/20/southern-california-joblessness-drag-las-vegas-eco/http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2011/jul/20/southern-california-joblessness-drag-las-vegas-eco/http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/15/business/la-fi-california-economy-20120215)//Bwang


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Reporting from Sacramento Things are looking up for California's beleaguered economy as the recovery from the recession hits a period of slow, modest growth this yearand next, according to two economic reports. Over the next two years, the state is poised to add nearly half a million jobs and drive the current 11.1% unemployment rate down

to nearly 10%, the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. said in an annual forecast scheduled to be released Wednesday. And on Tuesday, financialrating company Standard & Poor's upgraded its outlook on California's ability to repay its debts to "positive"from "stable." "We think the state is poised for credit improvement and potentially a higher rating," S&P said.An upgrade inthe state's credit rating would be "a powerful vote of confidence," Gov. Jerry Brown said. California's improvedfinancial condition , however, is based partly on continued budget cutting, which has fallen heavily ongovernment jobs and services. The state lost 85,500 local, state and federal government jobs since the start ofthe recession in December 2007. For Los Angeles County, the recovery is expected to come at "a painfully slowpace," taking years to make up about 300,000 private-sector and government jobs lost since the start of therecession, according to the forecast. Governments in the county are expected to shed 3,200 jobs this year ,according to the economic development company, a nonprofit that does economic research and promotes local business growth. In the private sector, the constructionindustry is expected to drop 3,300 jobs this year. But the losses in government and construction jobs should be offset by bigger gains in other industries, giving the county anet of 15,600 new jobs this year, the report said. The biggest gains in the county should be in health services, with 5,400 net new jobs; education, with 4,800; information,including television and film production, with 4,100; and leisure and hospitality, with 3,900. International trade through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and Los

Angeles International Airport jumped late last year and is ready to expand along with the national economy. But that projection would hold true only if there were nointernational political or economic crisis in Europe, the Middle East or elsewhere, the report said. Barring an international meltdown, the job picture for Los Angeles County

should brighten next year with the creation of about 22,700 jobs. The county created more than 10 times that many jobs in 2006, the year before the recession started. "LosAngeles County seems to be moving, but it's improving at a slower pace than the state as a whole and the rest ofthe nation as a whole," said the principal author of the report and chief economist at the developmentcompany, Robert Kleinhenz. This year, the country's economy should grow 1.1% and the state's 1.5%, while Los Angeles County's growth is forecast to be only0.6%, he said. Orange County, the first in Southern California to return to economic growth, in 2010, will lead the transition from recovery to a slow, steady expansion,fostered by its universities, high-tech industries and tourist attractions, the report said. Residential real estate in Orange County, particularly for lower-priced condominiums,could begin to turn around, "with prices bottoming out and a small upswing in sales and new home construction," the report said.

California economy key US economy large GDP and key to retail sales

Williams 09- (Juliet, California's Ailing Economy Could Prolong US Recession, Huffington Post, 6-29-09,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/29/californias-ailing-econom_n_222616.html)

SACRAMENTO, Calif. California faces a $24 billion budget shortfall, an eye-popping amount that dwarfs many states' entire annual spending plans. Beyond California'sborders, why should anyone care that the home of Google and the Walt Disney Co. might stop paying its bills this week? Virtually all states are suffering in the recession, some

worse than California. But none has the economic horsepower of the world's eighth-largest economy, home to one ineight Americans. California accounts for 12 percent of the nation's gross domestic product and the largest shareof retail sales of any state. It also sends far more in tax revenue to the federal government than it receives _giving a dollar for every 80 cents it gets back _ which means Californians are keeping social programs afloatacross the country. While the deficit only affects the state, California's deepening economic malaise could make it harder for the entire nation's economy to recover.

When the state stumbles, its sheer size _ 38.3 million people _ creates fallout for businesses from Texas to Michigan. "California is the key catalyst forU.S. retail sales, and if California falls further you will see the U.S. economy suffer significantly, " said retail consultantBurt P. Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group. He warned of more bankruptcies of national retail chains and brand suppliers. Even if California lawmakersolve the deficit quickly, there will likely be more government furloughs and layoffs and tens of billions of dollars in spending cuts. That will ripple through the state economy,sowing fear of even more job losses. Californians have already been scaling back for months as the state's unemployment rate has climbed to a record 11.5 percent in May.Increases to the income, sales and vehicle license taxes approved by lawmakers and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in February acted as a further drag on spending. Personalincome declined in California in 2008 for the first time since the Great Depression, and income tax revenue fell by 34 percent during the first five months of this year. Thedecrease in spending is especially evident in automobiles. California is the nation's largest single auto market, and sales are down 40 percent from last year. Auto dealers seelittle hope of a quick turnaround, especially after a 1 percentage point increase in the state sales tax and hike of the vehicle license fee. State agencies also canceled contracts fohundreds of new vehicles, retroactive to March, said Brian Maas, director of government affairs for the California New Car Dealers Association. Because California's $1.7

trillion annual economy is so important, the state's treasurer has asked for federal help_ in the form of a guarantee that would allow California and other states to take outshort-term loans at lower interest rates.

California growth is key to the world economy it drives global innovation

Henton 2008 Project manager for the start-up of the Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network, an innovative, results-oriented regional economic developmentalliance; consultant to the California Economic Strategy Panel, Californias first state economic strategy process linked to industry clusters and regions (Doug, GlobalEconomic Integration Monograph California Regional Economies Project, California Economic Strategy Panel, October 2008, http://www.coecon.com/Reports/GLOBAL%20CONNECT/CAGlobalEcon.pdf)

2 California: A Global Innovation Broker California is a central nexus in the global innovation network. Not only does theStates multifaceted and innovative economy attract people, business and investment from around the world,through its innovation infrastructure, it connects widely diverse players and interests from around the worldcreating new value in the form of new ideas, new products, and new levels of collaboration. In the globalinnovation economy, ideas drive growth. The recipe for economic success continues to evolve as the economyevolves. Two centuries ago, success was about building the biggest, most efficient farm. One century ago, it was about building the most efficient factory. Today,economic success is about ideas. New ideas are born out of diversity and a flexible environment that facilitatesnew connections and the exchange of ideas. Regions that become the wellsprings of ideas drive innovation inthe global marketplace.17 Californias role as a global innovation broker takes multiple forms. Three examples include theBay Area Science & Innovation Consortium (BASIC), Global CONNECT, and Californias recent invitation to be the highlight of the 2009 CeBIT. BASIC is dedicated toadvancing the San Francisco Bay Areas leadership in science, technology and innovation in the increasingly competitive national and international R&D environment. It is a
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collaboration of the regions major research universities, national laboratories, independent research institutions, and R&D-driven business. Its activities include developingregional and global innovation networks, supporting science-related projects, developing projects, connecting researchers and businesses, and educating the public. 18 CONNECT San Diego was created two decades ago to bring together business and local leaders to transform the region from Navy town to high-tech center. The organizationcollaborates with local scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs and venture capitalists to commercialize technology and foster the growth of successful companies. Building on thissuccess, Global CONNECT, associated with the University of California San Diego, was founded in 2003 to reach out around the world, linking innovative regions andsupporting the development of their innovation systems.19 CeBIT is the worlds largest technology trade show held annually in Hannover, Germany. Each year, a country ischosen as the official partner of CeBIT, and its information and communications technology businesses are highlighted. For the first time, a state will be the partner in 2009.

California was chosen for its global leadership in technology and especially in environmental technology. 2.1 TheStrength of Californias Global Connections and FlowsAs a central nexus in the global economy, California hosts huge volumes oftraffic of people and goods from around the world. As a global innovation broker, the State (its regions, firms, institutions,etc.)brings these varied and vibrant pieces together in a way that produces new connections and forms and

through which California creates and furthers a global innovation ecosystem. Californias ports handle 18% of total U.S. trade, and12% of all U.S. exports originate in California. The state attracts talent from around the globe to work in its companies and studyat its universities. The convergence of talent from around the world creates enduring connections between theState and other countries through individuals, companies, and universities. The discovery process is bringinggrowing numbers of researchers together from across borders as evidenced in co-patenting activity betweenCalifornians and non-U.S. residents. Foreign firms establish affiliates in California and the States firms open up shop abroad as well. Finally,

venture capital investment flows both to and from California not only in the form of dollars but also expertiseand networking. 2.1.1 California Industry Value Chains and Their Global Reach As part of the California Regional Economies Project, the California EconomicStrategy Panel has produced a series of studies of key industry groupings across the States eight economic regions

with the purpose of identifying areas of growth and opportunities for workforce development. These studies includeHealth Sciences & Services, The Food Chain, Manufacturing, Logistics and Infrastructure.20 (The studies were carried out separately at different points in time, so someoverlap in employment numbers displayed does exist.) Over the recent period from 2001 to 2006, employment increased in Health Sciences & Services and dropped slightly in

the manufacturing value chain. All industry value chains experienced growth in average annual earnings. These key California industry groups are

globally connected, and it is a far more complex story than simply offshoring production to countries with low-cost labor. Californias firms have affiliates abroad, and foreign firms locate business affiliates in California.The United Kingdom is our strongest partner in this respect. By industry group the manufacturing value chainaccounts by far for the largest number of both, California affiliates abroad and foreign-owned businesses inCalifornia. Making up the largest number of foreign affiliates in this group, 418 affiliates come from Japan. Californias firms in the manufacturing value chain have openedthe most locations in China (367) followed by the United Kingdom (292), Canada (278), Germany(261), and Japan (226). In terms of globalconnectedness,Japan jumps out with 55 California locations in the Food Chain, Two thirds of German affiliates inCalifornia are in the manufacturing value chain. Other Industries consist primarily of accommodations, restaurants, finance, and insurance.Californias exports are growing. Exports are not just about making a product here and selling it to a consumer overseas. As a result of the global distribution of the productionprocess, flows of intermediate goods such as materials and components as well as expertise crisscross the globe in container ships, cargo planes and first-class airline seats.Californias exports include complex production machinery, high-tech components to be assembled overseas into consumer products that will be sold around the world (e.g.the Ipod), and a very broad array of services including financial, legal, and business services. Service Exports Worldwide, service industries are growing relative tomanufacturing. Compared to the U.S., Californias economy is more oriented to services than manufacturing. In terms of employment, service industries make up 81.2% inCalifornia and 80.7% in the U.S. In terms of total output, or gross domestic product (GDP), service industries make up 79.9% of the California economy and 75.9% of the U.S.economy (Figure 3). Relative to 1997, total output from services increased 44% in California and 36% in the U.S. (Figure 4). Export data for services is available only for the

U.S. as a whole. State-level export data only exists for goods exports. Looking at trends in U.S. service exports can provide a rough approximation for California; however,given the fact that Californias economy is more service-intensive, this derivation very likely underestimates the States exports in services. Total U.S. exports valued $1.7trillion in 2007, and the export of services represented 29%.21 Setting this percentage relative to U.S. GDP from service industries and multiplying by California GDP fromservice industries, produces an estimated value of $69.4 billion for California exports in services in 2007. Since 2002, the value of service exports have increased at a fasterrate than goods exports in California, while the trends for each have been similar for the U.S. as a whole (Figure 5). Service exports consist of travel services, royalties andlicense fees, other transportation, and passenger fares and other private industry services. Including business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, andfinancial services, the segment of other private industry services has witnessed the strongest growth in export value since 2001 (Figure 6).

Economic decline triggers nuclear war

Harris and Burrows 9 (Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of theNICs Long Range Analysis Unit Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf, AM)

Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number ofintersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended consequences,

there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the Great

Depression is not likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledglingdemocracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateralinstitutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no reason to think that this would not be true in thetwenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that reason, the ways in which the potential for greater conflictcould growwould seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier.In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international

agenda. Terrorisms appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youthunemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will placesome of the worlds most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025will likely be a combination of descendants of long establishedgroups_inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks_and newly emergent

collections of the angry and disenfranchised thatbecome self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets thatwould become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost certainlybe the Middle East. Although Irans acquisition of nuclear
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weapons is not inevitable,worries about a nuclear-armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new securityarrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclearambitions . It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in theMiddle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensityconflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to anunintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The closeproximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also

will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclearattack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short warning and missile flight times, and uncertaintyof Iranianintentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentiallyleading to escalating crises. 36 Types of

conflict that the world continues to experience, such as over resources, could reemerge, particularly ifprotectionism growsand there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices. Perceptions ofrenewed energyscarcity will drive countries to take actionsto assure their future access to energy supplies. In the worst case, this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deemassured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime.Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and

modernization efforts, such as Chinas and Indias development of blue water naval capabilities. Ifthe fiscal stimulus focus for these countriesindeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup of regional navalcapabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves, but it also will create opportunities formultinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes.With water alsobecoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East,cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and

between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.

Slow growth makes the US uncooperative and desperate leads to hegemonic wars

Goldstein 7 - Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania, Avery Goldstein, Power transitions, institutions, and China's risein East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence,Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume30, Issue4 & 5August 2007, pages 639 682

Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for international politics of a shift in power between a dominant state and

a rising power. In War and Change in World Politics, Robert Gilpin suggested that peace prevails when a dominant states capabilities enable it to govern aninternational order that it has shaped. Over time, however, as economic and technological diffusion proceeds during eras of peace anddevelopment, other states are empowered. Moreover, the burdens of international governance drain and distract the reigning hegemon,and challengers eventuallyemergewho seek to rewrite the rules of governance. As the power advantage ofthe erstwhile hegemon ebbs, it may become desperate enough to resort to theultima ratio of international politics, force, toforestall the increasingly urgentdemands of a rising challenger. Or as the power of the challenger rises, it may betempted to press its case with threats to useforce. It is the rise and fall of the great powers that creates thecircumstances under which major wars, what Gilpin labels hegemonic wars, break out.13 Gilpins argument logically encourages pessimism about theimplications of a rising China. It leads to the expectation that international trade, investment, and technology transfer will result in a steady

diffusion ofAmerican economic power, benefiting the rapidly developing states of the world, including China. As the US simultaneouslyscurries to put out the many brushfires that threaten its far-flung global interests (i.e., the classic problem of overextension), itwill be unable to devotesufficient resources to maintain or restore its former advantage over emerging competitors like China.While the erosion ofthe once clearAmerican advantage plays itself out, the US will find it ever more difficult to preserve the order in

Asia that it created during its era of preponderance. The expectation is an increase in the likelihood for the use of force either by a Chinese challenger able to field a stronger military in support of its demands for greater influence over international arrangements in

Asia, or by a besiegedAmerican hegemon desperate to head off further decline.Among the trendsthat alarm those who would look at Asia through the lens of Gilpins theoryare Chinas expanding share of world trade and

wealth(much of it resulting from the gains made possible by the international economic order a dominant US established); its acquisitionof technology in key sectors that have both civilian and military applications (e.g., information, communications, and electronics linked with to forestall,and the challenger becomes increasingly determined to realize the transition to a new international orderwhose contours it will define. the revolution in military affairs);and an expanding military burden for the US (as it copes with the challenges of its global war on terrorism and especially its struggle in Iraq) that limits the resources it

can devote to preserving its interests in East Asia.14 Although similar to Gilpins work insofar as it emphasizes the importance of shifts in the capabilities of a dominantstate and a rising challenger, the power-transition theory A. F. K. Organski and Jacek Kugler present in The War Ledger focuses more closely on the allegedly dangerous

phenomenon of crossover the point at which a dissatisfied challenger is about to overtake the established leading state.15 In such cases,when the power gapnarrows, the dominant state becomes increasingly desperate. Though suggesting why a rising China may ultimately present gravedangers for international peace when its capabilities make it a peer competitor of America, Organski and Kuglers power-transition theoryis less clear aboutthe dangers while a potential challenger still lags far behind and faces a difficult struggle to catch up. This clarification is important in thinking about the theorysrelevance to interpreting Chinas rise because a broad consensus prevails among analysts that Chinese military capabilities are at a minimum two decades from putting it

in a league with the US in Asia.16 Their theory, then, points with alarm to trends in Chinas growing wealth and power relativeto the United States, but especiallylooks ahead to what it sees as the period of maximum danger that time when adissatisfied China could be in a position to overtake the US on dimensions believed crucial for assessingpower. Reportsbeginning in the mid-1990s that offered extrapolations suggesting Chinas growth would give it the worldslargest gross domestic product (GDP aggregate, not per capita) sometime in the first fewdecades of the twentieth centuryfed thesesorts of concerns about a potentially dangerous challenge to American leadership in Asia.17 The huge gap between Chinese and American military capabilities (especiallyin terms of technological sophistication) has so far discouraged prediction of comparably disquieting trends on this dimension, but inklings of similar concerns may be
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reflected in occasionally alarmist reports about purchases of advanced Russian air and naval equipment, as well as concern that Chinese espionage may have underminedthe American advantage in nuclear and missile technology, and speculation about the potential military purposes of Chinas manned space program.18

Moreover,because a dominant state may react to the prospect of a crossover and believe that it is wiserto embrace the logic of preventive war and act earlyto delay a transition while the task is more manageable ,Organski and Kuglers power-transition theoryalso provides grounds for concern about the period prior to thepossible crossover.19 pg. 647-650

Growth eliminates the only rational incentives for war

Gartzke 11 associate Professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego PhD from Iowa and B.A. from UCSF Erik, "SECURITY IN AN INSECUREWORLD"www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/09/erik-gartzke/security-in-an-insecure-world/

Almost as informative as the decline in warfare has been where this decline is occurring. Traditionally, nations were constrained by opportunity. Most nations did not fight

most others because they could not physically do so. Powerful nations, in contrast, tended to fight more often, and particularly to fight with other powerful states. Modernzones of peace are dominated by powerful, militarily capable countries. These countries could fight eachother, but are not inclined to do so.At the same time,weaker developing nations that continue to exercise force intraditional ways are incapable of projecting power against the developed world, with the exception of unconventional methods, such as terrorism.The world is thus divided between those who could use force but prefer not to (at least not against each other) and those who would be willing to fight but lack the material

means to fight far from home.Warfare in the modern world has thus become an activity involving weak(usuallyneighboring) nations, with intervention by powerful (geographically distant) states in a policing capacity. So, the riddle of peace boilsdown to why capable nations are not fighting each other. There are several explanations, as Mack has pointed out. The easiest, and I thinkthe best,explanation has to do with an absence of motive. Modern states find little incentive to bicker over tangible property, since armies areexpensive and the goods that can be looted are no longer of considerable value. Ironically, this is exactly the explanation thatNorman Angell famously supplied before the World Wars.Yet, todaythe evidence is abundant that the most prosperous, capable

nations prefer to buy rather than take. Decolonization, for example, divested European powers of territories that were increasingly expensive toadminister and which contained tangible assets of limited value. Of comparable importance is the move to substantialconsensus among powerful nations about how international affairs should be conducted. The great rivalries of thetwentieth centurywere ideological rather than territorial. These have been substantially resolved, as Francis Fukuyama haspointed out. The fact that remaining differences are moderate, while thebenefits of acting in concert are large (dueto economic interdependence in particular) means that nations prefer to deliberate rather thanfight. Differences remain, but for the most part the capable countries of the world have been in consensus, while the disgruntled developing world is incapable of acting onrespective nations dissatisfaction. While this version of events explains the partial peace bestowed on the developed world, it also poses challenges in terms of the

future. The rising nations of Asia in particular have not been equalbeneficiaries in the world politicalsystem. These nations have benefited from economic integration, and this has proved sufficient in thepast to pacify them. The question for the future is whether the benefits of tangible resources through markets are sufficient to compensate the rising powers fortheir lack of influence in the policy sphere. The danger is that established powers may be slow to accommodate or give way to the demands of rising powers from Asia andelsewhere, leading to divisions over the intangible domain of policy and politics. Optimists argue that at the same time that these nations are r ising in power, their domesticsituations are evolving in a way that makes their interests more similar to the West. Consumerism, democracy, and a market orientation all help to draw the rising powers in as

fellow travelers in an expanding zone of peace among the developed nations. Pessimists argue instead that capabilities among the rising powers are growing faster than theiraffinity for western values, or even that fundamental differences exist among the interests of first- and second-wave powers that cannot be bridged by the presence of market

mechanisms or McDonalds restaurants.If the peace observed amongwestern, developed nations is to prove durable, it mustbe because warfare proves futile as nations transition to prosperity. Whether this will happen depends on the rate of change in interestsand capabilities, a difficult thing to judge.We must hope that the optimistic view is correct, that what ended war in Europe can

be exported globally. Prosperity has made war expensive, while the fruits of conflict, both in terms of tangible andintangible spoils have declined in value. These forces are not guaranteed to prevail indefinitely. Already, research on robotic warfare promises to lower thecost of conquest. If in addition, fundamental differences among capable communities arise, then warfare over ideology or policy can also be resurrected. We must all hope that

the consolidating forces of prosperity prevail, thatwar becomes a durable anachronism.

California recession undermines agriculture because it turns off funding for irrigation

Campbell 11[27 April 2011, Kate Campbell, AgAlert the weekly newspaper for California Agriculture, Water shortages lead to record farmland losses,http://www.agalert.com/story/?id=2047, AZhang]

Even during a recession that slowed urbanization, the number of irrigated acres farmed in California droppedby a record amountand analysts said water shortages had a lot to do with the decrease. A new, two-year report from the stateDepartment of Conservation shows thatbetween 2006 and 2008, irrigated farmland in California decreased by a recordamount: 317 square miles, or more than 203,000 acres. The department manages two voluntary agricultural land conservation programs, theWilliamson Act and the California Farmland Conservancy Program, and closely tracks agricultural land use. The latest report, released last week, shows a slowdownfrom the record urbanization pace seen in the state during recent years. Even so, a record amount of irrigatedfarmland was idled, urbanized, or otherwise reclassified30 percent more than the total farmland taken out offood production between 2004 and 2006. The report noted a decline of almost 100,000 acres of the highest-quality agricultural soils, known as prime farmlandalso a record loss. Land idling was particularlynoteworthy in the southern San Joaquin Valley: Five of the region's eight counties saw at least 10,000 acres
http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/09/erik-gartzke/security-in-an-insecure-world/http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/09/erik-gartzke/security-in-an-insecure-world/http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/09/erik-gartzke/security-in-an-insecure-world/


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idled. More than 56,000 acres were idled in Fresno County alone. "Most of that was related to watereither todrought conditions or to high salinity," said Molly Penberth, manager of the department's Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program. "Becauseirrigation ceased on thousands of those acres, most of that land was reclassified to, for example, grazing land.""This report shows again thatwithout water, farmers can't farm," California Farm Bureau Federation President Paul Wenger said. "It's always disturbing tosee productive farmland forced out of production, and these figures underline the toll from water shortages caused by drought,regulations and court decisions." Wenger noted that fallowing of farmland results in lost jobs, lower taxrevenues and greater reliance on government support for hard-hit communities.

The collapse of U.S. agricultural competitiveness turns every impact and makes extinction

inevitable

Lugar, 4 U.S. Senator Indiana, (Richard, Plant Power Our Planet v. 14 n. 3, http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html

In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning nuclear threats and othercrises, it is easy to lose sight of the long-range challenges. But we do so at our peril. One of the most daunting ofthem is meeting the worlds need for food and energy in this century.At stake is not only preventing starvationand saving the environment, but also world peace and security. History tells us that states may go to war overaccess to resources, and that poverty and famine have often bred fanaticism and terrorism. Working to feed the

world will minimize factors that contribute to global instability and the proliferation of weapons of massdestruction. With the world population expected to grow from 6 billion people today to 9 billion by mid-century, the demand for affordable food will increase well

beyond current international production levels. People in rapidly developing nations will have the means greatly to improve their standard of living and caloric intake.Inevitably, that means eating more meat. This will raise demand for feed grain at the same time that the growing world population will need vastly more basic food to eat.Complicating a solution to this problem is a dynamic that must be better understood in the West: developing countries often use limited arable land to expand cities to house

their growing populations.As good land disappears, people destroy timber resources and even rainforests as they try tocreate more arable land to feed themselves. The long-term environmental consequences could be disastrous forthe entire globe. Productivity revolution To meet the expected demand for food over the next 50 years, we in the United States will have to grow roughly three timesmore food on the land we have. Thats a tall order. My farm in Marion County, Indiana, for example, yields on average 8.3 to 8.6 tonnes of corn per hectare typical for a farmin central Indiana. To triple our production by 2050, we will have to produce an annual average of 25 tonnes per hectare. Can we possibly boost output that much? Well, its

been done before. Advances in the use of fertilizer and water, improved machinery and better tilling techniques combined to generate a threefold increase in yields since 1935 on our farm back then, my dad produced 2.8 to 3 tonnes per hectare. Much US agriculture has seen similar increases. But of course there is no guarantee that we can achieve

those results again. Given the urgency of expanding food production to meet world demand, we must invest much more in scientificresearch and target that money toward projects that promise to have significant national and global impact. For the United States, that will mean a major shift in the way we conduct and

fund agricultural science. Fundamental research will generate the innovations that will be necessary to feed the world. The United States can take a leading positionin a productivity revolution. And our success at increasing food production may play a decisive humanitarianrole in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet .

Desert Xpress is key to revitalizing the Southwest Economy - well isolate Three internal links

1. Job Stimulus

Desert Xpress will boost Southern Californias economy by creating thousands of jobs. HighGas Prices will push riders to High Speed Rail

Velotta 12- (Richard N., DesertXpress inks deal to add train link from Victorville to Palmdale, making travel to L.A. possible, Vegas Inc, June 7, 2012,http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2012/jun/07/desertxpress-inks-deal-add-train-link-victorville-/)

A USC Dornsife-Los Angeles Times survey published last week found that 55 percent of the Californias voters want the bond issue for the system that was approved in 2008back on the ballot, and 59 percent would vote against it. DesertXpress officials hope to change perceptions by re-emphasizing the safety, environmental and employmentbenefits of train travel. The company has hired R&R Partners, the Las Vegas-based advertising and public relations firm used by the Las Vegas Convention and VisitorsAuthority, to update the train systems messaging. R&R Partners has begun hyping the fact that the train would use exclusive double track that it wouldn't share with freight

carriers and the line would include no grade crossings, reducing the possibility of collisions. Officials anticipate the train would divert 2 millioncar trips from congested Interstate 15 a year, reducing traffic by an estimated 25 percent. The all-electric

operation of the train is expected to reduce emissions by 40 percent along the I-15 corridor and save theequivalent of 8.5 million gallons of gasoline. Construction of the train line is expected to generate 80,000primary and secondary jobs. Most of the jobs would be in California because that's where most of the track

would be located. And while many experts have said one of the biggest challenges in building passenger trainridership would be to pry Californians out of their cars, the American Public Transportation Association saidearlier this week that higher gasoline prices have driven auto use down and train travel up . Szabo said there are 44 railprojects in 16 states that are under way or set to break ground. He added that Generation X and Generation Y consumers consider it a badge of honor not to own a car and torely on mass transit or bicycle sharing programs.

Desert Xpress is key to increase Nevada and California jobs Construction and Tourism

Wellington 11- Bachelor of Arts in Social Science Washington State University (Charles Alexander, The Viability and Necessity of DesertXpress and the Future ofLas Vegas, UNLV, 1-10-2011, http://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2165&context=thesesdissertations)
http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2012/jun/07/desertxpress-inks-deal-add-train-link-victorville-/http://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2165&context=thesesdissertationshttp://www.vegasinc.com/news/2012/jun/07/desertxpress-inks-deal-add-train-link-victorville-/http://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2165&context=thesesdissertations


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Three main sources of revenue that will be created in Victorville and Las Vegas will be from an increase in fuel sales as the car rentals in Las Vegas will increase, the

number of elderly or otherwise unable individuals visiting will increase as the drive time and distance has beenshortened, and groups will now be able to travel together while working together in preparation forconventions and such. DesertXpress will capture 22% of the Southern California market (Cambridge Systematics, Inc.,2008). Job Growth As of August, the current unemployment rate in Las Vegas was 14.2%. (United States Department of Labor, 2011)With the addition of theDesertXpress, jobs will be created from the construction of the rail line itself, and will also cause an increase ofstaffing in Las Vegas hotels, car rental staff, and will potentially create the need for expansions of resorts. Theseexpansions put people to work. Another positive fact is that there will be an increase in the length of time guests will stayto visit. Rather than turning in rather early so that they can prepare for the long drive, they can continue toenjoy the Las Vegas moments until time to depart to the rail station. Job growth is yet another positive aspectof the DesertXpress implementation. This job growth will be the result of an increase in tourism. This increase intourism will have a positive ripple 10 effect that Las Vegas has so badly needed. (An estimate of the potential unemployment drop % will be discussed here.) Safety With anytransportation mode of this size, safety is always a first thought. Studies have been completed to assist in codes and regulations that will help ensure the safety of thepassengers (DesertXpress, 2011).

2. Victorville

Desert Express will revitalize Victorville creating a transportation hub will promote citydevelopment

The Daily Mail, 2012 [Obama considers $4.9bn high-speed bullet train to connect California and Las Vegas By TRAVELMAIL REPORTER 26 Marchhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2120472/President-Obama-considers-high-speed-bullet-train-California-Las-Vegas.html Accessed Mar 29 2012]

Holidaymakers who may spend most of their trip journeying between Los Angeles and San Francisco, visiting vineyards and beaches in between, often make a quick dash fromCalifornia to Nevada to experience the glitz and glamour of Sin City. But while tourists currently have to drive across desert or fly to Las

Vegas, it could become easier to reach than ever before if plans for a new high-speed railway connectingCalifornia and Nevada goes ahead. Taking a gamble: An artist's impression of the proposed 150mph DesertXpress train, set to link up 100 miles from

Victorville in California to Las Vegas, NevadaA $4.9billion bullet train, which would reach speeds of 150mph, is being considered as a way tomake access to Las Vegas easier and boost the economy of a small town on the edge of the Mojave Desert,

where the train station would be built. The railway would be used as a 'park and ride', with tourists andCalifornians having to drive 100 miles out of Los Angeles to board a train outside the town of Victorville. Theregion has been devastated by America's housing crash and the Obama administration has considered lendingthe huge $4.9billion figure to company DesertXpress to build the line and rejuvenate the area. It is beingconsidered by some Washington heavyweights as a way to begin a modernisation of America's rail network,

which is often used more by tourists than by locals.

Victorville is a hub for travel all over Southern California

Antonovich 2012, [MTA Board Green-Lights Antonovich Plan to Upgrade Metrolink, March 22, 2012, Author: Mike Antonovich, Supervisor for SCV news,http://scvnews.com/?p=28174]

This unanimous vote is a step forward in our effort to provide a convenient, fast and cost-effective transitalternative for our residents in the Antelope, Santa Clarita and San Fernando Valleys who commute to BobHope Airport, Downtown Los Angeles and South all the way to San Diego, and from Ventura County to theCoachella Valley, said Antonovich. Palmdale stands poised to become a major rail hub with California High Speedrail moving south from 0Bakersfield, DesertXpress connecting Las Vegas to Victorville with a feeder line to Palmdale, and the Metrolink system comingnorth from Southern California, he added. Upgrading the Antelope Valley Line between Downtown Los Angeles andLancaster using $1 billion secured from the High Speed Rail Authority for rail improvements is the toppriority.

Independently, regional development from Desert Xpress enhances agriculture

Cohen, 4/2 Executive Director and cofounder of TransForm, a non-profit advocating of public transportation with awards from senators, environmental agencies,non-profit committees and more (Stuart, Moving Ahead with High Speed Rail, TransForm, 4/2/12,http://transformca.org/files/moving_ahead_with_high_speed_rail_june_13_2012_2.pdf)//JS

The implications of a future with HSR for the transportation system extends far beyond what new transportation infrastructure will be built. The implications of

continued investment in a highway/runwaybased system have potentially muchgreater significance for land use and theenvironment in terms ofencouraging sprawl. We know from experience that highway and airport investments dont typicallyleadto walkable mixedused developed focused in city centers, rather the opposite is true. Current trends indicate acontinual loss of land to sprawl, much of it farmland loss and some of it sensitive habitat. According to the American Farmland Trust report

Paving Paradise, starting in 2004, over 2,000,000 acres of landwill be lost to urbanization (sprawl, highway expansions, etc.) in
http://transformca.org/files/moving_ahead_with_high_speed_rail_june_13_2012_2.pdf)//JShttp://transformca.org/files/moving_ahead_with_high_speed_rail_june_13_2012_2.pdf)//JS


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has currentprojects and future costs. California by 2050, with a large percentage of that being agriculture land or highquality farmland. Some land will surely besensitive habitat as well.While HSR would cause some direct farmland loss around 5,000 acres according to Authority environmentaldocuments24 by catalyzing landuse change and revitalizing citiesand corridors leading to them, it may make it morefeasible for the cities in the Valleyto have thriving downtown focused economies and great places that more people will want to live in. Ideallythistakes the pressure offof constant farm and open space development. Additionally, the environmental mitigation programs being undertaken will

be set aside, possiblyresulting in significantly more acreage preserved than is lost. While the landmark legislation SB 375 (see TransFormfact sheet) will likely lead to some improvement in landuse and transportation planning, the new lawdoes not directly prohibit or stop sprawl. Rather it creates astrong framework to plan and provide incentives to encourage sustainable land use patterns and transportation investments. However, absent major investments insupporting alternative transportation, implementing SB 375 may be difficult.

3. High Speed Rail

Desert Xpress catalyzes a high speed rail industry demonstration effect and it provesridership by saving commuters money

DesertXpress.com 2012, [Benfits, April, 2012, Author: DesertXpress.com, http://www.desertxpress.com/benefits.html]

DesertXpress will serve as a catalyst for the high speed rail industry in the U.S. With this new industry thepublic benefits will be abundant. The construction and operation of DesertXpress will create substantialquantifiable net benefits to the public including creation of jobs, reduction of harmful emissions, reduction offossil fuel usage, increase in public safety, and encouragement of economic development in an economicallydepressed region. For most motorists, the diversion to DesertXpress will save money and time.24 The projected estimated cost to motorists per mile in 2017 is 69cents. Using this figure, the roundtrip drive between Las Vegas and Victorville would cost $248 in 2017. With an average fare of $89 (2017), DesertXpress willprovide substantial monetary savings to motorists in addition to the other significant benefits of increasedsafety, convenience, and time savings. For air passengers, the monetary savings are also substantial. One-way walk-up fares for air travel from any of thesix major Southern California airlines average between $155 and $179 and can be as much as $40026 on a low cost carrier, significantly higher than the DesertXpressestimated $89 (2017) round trip fare. In addition, the check-in process for high speed rail service is faster, easier, and less stressful than airport check-in and securityprocedures.

This is a key economic multiplier Desert Xpress promotes competitiveness through jobs andregional economic growth

US Department of Labor 2011, [Economic Impact, September 2011, Author: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Local AreaUnemployment Statistics Searchable Database, http://www.desertxpress.com/economic.html]

Countries around the world have proven the benefits of high speed rail and invested heavily in its developmentand implementation. High Speed Rail will promote international investment in American infrastructure and

energize domestic investment in our own economy. DesertXpress will provide an opportunity to strengthenAmerican competitiveness and expertise in high speed rail construction and operation. DesertXpress willgenerate major economic benefits, regionally and across the United States, during both the construction andoperations phases. Construction of DesertXpress will create direct jobs and provide a substantial indirecteconomic benefit through the supply of material and component orders placed with U.S. companies and theeconomic multiplier affect associated with large-scale infrastructure construction projects. Most of theconstruction will be performed by workers hired and trained locally. Californias and Nevadas unemployment rates are currently atelevated levels. Unemployment during the recession has disproportionately impacted certain demographics, specifically members of the middle class, particularly males intechnical and construction occupations without college degrees. In August 2011, the gap between employment and the labor force in Clark County was approximately 135,723persons and in San Bernardino County 113,479 persons, representing 14% of each of the workforces, a total of 249,202 persons seeking employment.8 DesertXpress

construction activities will offer skilled employment opportunities, at competitive wages and benefits, to tens of thousands of the mostimpacted middle class households currently struggling to get by as the national and regional economies slowlyrecover.


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1AC- Solvency

Private funding fails Federal subsidies are key to solvency

Delaware Online, 2012 [March 29 Harry Reids Vegas rail: Gamble or good thing By MICHAEL R. BLOOD Associated Press writerhttp://www.delawareonline.com/viewart/20120329/BUSINESS09/120328009/Harry-Reid-s-Vegas-rail-Gamble-good-thing-?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CBusiness%7Cp Accessed Mar 29, 2012]

DesertXpress officials once boasted they would build the line with private dollars, but they now plan to rely onFRA financing to cover the bulk of the cost. Mack didn't directly answer if the company turned to the FRA because private investors were unwilling to

take the risk, but said the loan terms are attractive. "When somebody comes and tells me I will build a system that pays for itself,I'm suspicious," said Hasan Ikhrata, executive director of the Southern California Association of Governments, which questioned ridership potential in a report lastyear. "There is no high-speed rail system in the world that operates without subsidies." The company is stillarranging as much as $1.6 billion needed to cover its share of the construction bill for the roughly 200-mileline. Investments could hinge on the loan approval, which requires the company to convince the FRA thattaxpayers won't get stiffed. In a worst-case scenario, the train would become government property if the company fails. The low-interest loan

would be about three times the combined amount the FRA loaned 32 other projects through the RailroadRehabilitation & Improvement Financing program since its inception in 2002. If successful, the train could be a forerunner in anational high-speed rail network, while bringing a rich return for investors and delivering visitors to Vegas. It would also give Nevada residents an option to SouthernCalifornia, albeit many miles from tourist hotspots like Hollywood or the beaches.

Federal support is key to ensure expansion of California rail options

Alpern, 2012,co-chair of the CD11 Transportation Advisory Committee [Transportation: From D.C.s House to YourHouse, 3/26/2012, Author: Ken Alpern, and chairs the nonprofit Transit Coalition, http://www.citywatchla.com/8box-left/2958-transportation-from-dcs-house-to-your-house]

So now the GOP dominates the Housebut while even conservative stalwarts like Senate Environment and Public Works Chair James Inhofe (R-OK) andHouse Transportation Committee Chair John Mica (R-FL) recognize that transportation/infrastructure is one of the few good things that Washington should be funding, toomany other Congressional Republicans believe that all transportation is just pork-barrel spending and a waste of the taxpayer dollar. Unfortunately, the Highway Trust Fund i

broke and the 18-cent/gallon gas tax is just not enough to fund it. Its a huge debate over whether House Speaker John Boehner is spot-on or just dead wrong when he links thKeystone XL pipeline and oil revenues to transportation spending, but ideally we need a long-term, FIVE-YEAR fix that includes both planning and funding for our nations

transportation needs. Add to the mix that too many Democratic leaders look at transportation spending as jobs bills that arefocused on short-term construction jobs and NOT on creating jobs by enhancing the growth of the privatesector-based economy(the heart of true job creation and federal tax revenues), and the Republican argument of transportationspending as welfare appears to be confirmed. One good case in point is the Desert Xpress project, which is seeking $4.9 billion in loans from theObama Administration to create a 150 mph high-speed rail train between Las Vegasand the remote city of Victorville. (Link) Questions abound as to thecost-effectiveness and fiscal self-sustainability of those promoting this project, which include transportation

officials and Vegas hobnobs, and which ideally would be connected to a future California High-Speed Rail(CAHSR) link to Palmdale (another project thats the source of innumerable fiscal debates). One particularly relevant question is whether Disney and Las Vegas are willing topony up their own billions to finish the ideal connection from Las Vegas to Southern California (ideally Anaheim). Most weekend Vegas getaway drivers know that just getting

to Victorville on the I-15 is a chore that cries for a rail option. And if those well-funded economic titans arent willing to pony up theirfunds, then why should the taxpayer? Fortunately, the Brown Administration is listening to the private sectorin refocusing the $10 billion in state-taxpayer-approved CAHSR bonds on Metrolink enhancements and theportion of the CAHSR project in and adjacent to the L.A. Basin (which could potentially link to the DesertXpress), but risks backlash and rejection of those bonds this November if Governor Brown cant fend off athreatened anti-CAHSR voter initiative.


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Extend: Inherency

Desert Xpress is seeking Federal loans now


Funding The DesertXpress is both a publicly and privately funded project. The company had stated that the project could be funded solely by private investors, but as of

February of 2011, DesertXpress had announced that they are seeking four and a half billion dollars in federal loans(Velotta, 2011).
http://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2165&context=thesesdissertationshttp://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2165&context=thesesdissertations


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Extend: Economy - Jobs

Desert Xpress improves the economy it reduces congestion and saves money


The benefits of mass transportation are numerous. Six major benefits are discussed below. The first benefit is personal opportunityenhancement which provides personal mobility and a greater freedom for everyone. This personal mobility

includes options to get to work, go to school, visit friends, or go to the doctors office. It also provides greateraccess to job opportunities for millions of Americans. The second benefit is that is saves fuel and reduces trafficcongestion. Americans living in areas served by public transportation save 785 million hours in travel time and 640 million gallons of fuel per year in congestionreduction alone. Lastly, there would be an additional $19 billion in cost caused by congestion without masstransportation. A third benefit is that it provides economic opportunities. For every single dollar that is invested intopublic transportation, four dollars in economic returns is generated. For every $1 billion invested, 36,000 jobs are created. Every $10

billion in capital investment in public transportation yields $30 million in increased business sales. Finally, every $10 million in operating investment yields $32 million in

increased business sales. The ripple effect of this revenue is vital to the revitalization of the economy (APTA, p. 1 -6, 2011) 7 A fourth benefit is that publictransportation saves money. Eighteen cents of every dollar is spent on transportation of which 94% goestoward purchasing, maintaining, and operating cars. This is the largest expenditure after housing. In addition, public transportation provides asafe and affordable alternative to driving. Lastly, households that are likely to utilize public transportation can potentially save approximately $10,000 per year.

Desert Xpress boosts the economy construction jobs and tourism

Kanigher 12- I-Team Reporter (Steve, Transportation Can Boost Las Vegas Economy, 8 News Now, March 27, 2012,http://www.8newsnow.com/story/17151912/transportation-can-boost-las-vegas-economy?clienttype=printable)

Another proposal that backers say would promote commerce in Southern Nevada is the DesertXpressEnterprises' high-speed train that would shuttle passengers between Las Vegas and Victorville, Calif., at 150miles an hour. Company officials have said that construction could begin by the end of this year, with completion possible by the end of 2016. It is estimated that a round-trip ticket in 2017 would cost $89, which the company says would make it far less expensive than airfare or even travel by car, when one accounts for wear and tear as well as

gas usage. DesertXpress Enterprises also says its project will create more than 80,000 construction-related jobs,both directly and indirectly, while also reducing pollutant emissions along Interstate 15 by 40 percent. The LasVegas station would be in the Strip corridor, meaning passengers would have access to taxis, limousines, busesand rental cars.

Desert Express is key to the economy it creates many jobs

CBS News, 2012 [KLAS-TV Las Vegas Transportation Can Boost Las Vegas Economy Mar 13, http://www.8newsnow.com/story/17151912/transportation-can-boost-las-vegas-economyBy Steve Kanigher News Anchor, Accessed Mar 29 2012]

Another proposal that backers say would promote commerce in Southern Nevada is the DesertXpress Enterprises' high-speed train that would shuttle passengers between LasVegas and Victorville, Calif., at 150 miles an hour. Company officials have said that construction could begin by the end of this year, with completion possible by the end of2016. It is estimated that a round-trip ticket in 2017 would cost $89, which the company says would make it far less expensive than airfare or even travel by car, when one

accounts for wear and tear as well as gas usage. DesertXpress Enterprises also says its project will create more than 80,000construction-related jobs, both directly and indirectly, while also reducing pollutant emissions along Interstate 15 by 40 percent. The Las Vegasstation would be in the Strip corridor, meaning passengers would have access to taxis, limousines, buses and rental cars.

Desert Express key to economy construction jobs and increased tourism

Watertown Daily Times, 2012 [Reject loan for Bullet trainhttp://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20120328/OPINION01/703289969/1036/opinion MARCH 28, Editorial Accessed March 29, 2012]

The Obama administration is reportedly ready to put down a $4.9 billion bet that a high-speed train can lure millions of visitors to the gambling resorts of Las Vegas. Thedubious plan has the earmarks of pork-barrel spending that fits well with President Obamas push to modernize the rail network but also rewards political backers of Nevada

Sen. Harry Reid, the powerful Senate majority leader, at great risk to taxpayers. The plan calls for the Federal Railroad Administration to loan DesertXpress $4.9 billionto build a 150-mph train from the struggling city of Victorville, Calif., to Las Vegas with promises of tens of thousands of jobs boosting theeconomy and thousands of visitors taking advantage of fast transportation rejuvenating Nevadas gamblingindustry. But the location of the train station in the Mojave Desert has skeptics calling it the train from nowhere.


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Extend: Economy - Victorville

Victorville is a key location ideal access to southern California

DesertXpress.com 2012, [Southern California Freeways Feed the Victorville Station, April 2012, Author: DesertXpress.com,http://www.desertxpress.com/project.html]

DesertXpress strategically selected Victorville, California as the optimal location for the Southern CaliforniaStation. It is located within a 30 to 45 minute drive of roughly 4-5 million people who live in the Inland Empire, and eastern Los Angeles County, and roughly anhour and a half drive from most of Southern Californias remaining 17-18 million residents .6All east/west

freeways serving the Southern California basin merge with the I-15 south of Victorville, requiring all driversoriginating in Southern California to pass through Victorville en-route to Las Vegas. This makes Victorville thenatural collection point for east-bound Southern California travelers.

Victorville is key to solvency it will develop as a city


A decision on the loan is not expected until mid-year, but the company has spent some $30 million sharpening its plan and refining ridership projections. Rising gas prices

and increasing traffic congestion could help ticket sales, and the company is touting reduced air pollution from fewer cars on the road. "It's Victorville thatmakes the project work," says chief executive Andrew Mack. Far from being a train from nowhere, company planners see thestruggling city of 115,000, once a stop on storied Route 66, as a collection point for millions of drivers heading

north to Las Vegas.Bringing the line deeper into the populous Los Angeles area would raise formidable challenges, Mack said, from crossing numerous freeways to

finding space for track. The lot now stippled with spindly creosote bushes has room for 15,000 parking spaces. Bagswould be checked through to hotel rooms. At peak hours, trains would depart every 20 minutes. Mack says anaverage round-trip fare could be as low as $75, though documents estimate $100. Mack says the train willdeliver convenience -- and for a price, luxury -- that studies show passengers want.


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Add-On Warming

Desert Xpress solves greenhouse it reduces gasoline consumption


The fifth benefit is that public transportation reduces gasoline consumption . Overall, public transportation saves theUnited States 4.2 billion gallons of gasoline annually which is more than 3 times the amount of gasolineimported from Kuwait. 4400 fewer miles are driven by households near public transits than those with no access to public transit. This is the equivalent to andindividual household reduction of 223 gallons per year. The sixth and final benefit of public transportation is the reduction of the carbon footprint.Communities that invest in public transportation reduce the nations carbon emissions by approximatelythirty-seven million metric tons annually. As an individual, he/she can reduce daily carbon emissions by twenty pounds or forty-eight hundred poundsper year. Lastly, taking public transportation can be 10 times greater in reducing harmful greenhouse gases (APTA, 2011,p. 7-9).


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AT: People wont drive to Victorville

Desert Xpress will eventually be extended to Los Angeles

Velotta 12- (Richard N., DesertXpress inks deal to add train link from Victorville to Palmdale, making travel to L.A. possible, Vegas Inc, June 7, 2012,http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2012/jun/07/desertxpress-inks-deal-add-train-link-victorville-/)

A seamless high-speed rail system linking Las Vegas with downtown Los Angeles is the goal adopted today byrepresentatives of DesertXpress and the Los Angeles Metropolitan Transit Authority. DesertXpress Enterprises

already is trying to build a high-speed rail line between Las Vegas and Victorville, Calif. A new agreementsigned today makes possible a second leg, linking Victorville to Palmdale, Calif., and eventually Los Angeles .DesertXpress and MTA representatives signed documents that open the door to the Las Vegas-Los Angeles route. The agreement includes a strategy to plan and build a 50-

mile high-speed line between Victorville and Palmdale,which would initially connect to Metrolink tracks and eventually be theconnection point to Californias planned high-speed rail system. The DesertXpress plan is part of a largerstrategy envisioned by the Las Vegas-centered Western High Speed Rail Alliance to eventually tie into aregional high-speed rail network with routes to Phoenix, Salt Lake City and Denver . Letters were signed by Tony Marnell II,founder, chairman and CEO of the Marnell Companies LLC, a partner in the DesertXpress project, and Los Angeles County Supervisor Michael Antonovich, the incoming

chairman of the MTA board. We really need to move forward on this, Antonovich said. Im frustrated that the United Statesspends billions of dollars in foreign aid that ends up in the pockets of third-world dictators. This project is aloan, so the money is being paid back and it keeps it in the United States and benefits American citizens. Whiledevelopers have several hurdles to clear and hundreds of details to outline, the plan has been hailed as a potential game-changer fortransportation between Southern California and Southern Nevada because it addresses the biggest flaw in

DesertXpress original plan - the use of Victorville as a southern end point to the route.Victorville is not an obstacle it is only the first step in a wider system

Kanigher 12- I-Team Reporter (Steve, Transportation Can Boost Las Vegas Economy, 8 News Now, March 27, 2012,http://www.8newsnow.com/story/17151912/transportation-can-boost-las-vegas-economy?clienttype=printable)

But the project has at least two public relations hurdles it continues to face. One is that many critics have questioned why the train would only go to Victorville instead of all the

way to Los Angeles. The company has said it believes most passengers live close enough to Victorville to make thatlocation worthwhile. There is also potential for the Victorville station to be linked to a future high-speed railsystem that would travel to other California cities. Another hurdle is that the company is seeking a federal loan to finance a substantial portion ofthe $6.5 billion project. What the future holds for DesertXpress is uncertain if that loan request is denied.

People will be willing to drive to Victorville cultural change


Victorville Mayor Ryan McEachron envisions a bustling transportation oasis with a hotel, restaurants, maybe evenhomes, on the proposed station site. He believes drivers can be enticed out of their cars, even in a region wherethe notion of rail travel can seem as distant as a New York subway. The company is "going to have to marketand market hard in order to get the ridership they need to support paying back the loan," the mayor says. "I think you canchange the thinking."
http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2012/jun/07/desertxpress-inks-deal-add-train-link-victorville-/http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2012/jun/07/desertxpress-inks-deal-add-train-link-victorville-/


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AT: Safety

Desert Xpress saves lives reducing congestion reduces traffic fatalities


In 2010, Americans took 10.2 billion trips on public transportation (American Public Transportation Association, 2011). By decreasing the amount of automobiles on theinterstate, multiple benefits will present themselves. Current data below has been given to show the number of visitors to Las Vegas from Southern California and the potential

number of travelers on the DesertXpress which will reflect the decrease in automobiles traveling on I-15. With any major transportationproject, public safety is always a concern. The DesertXpress high speed rail project will drastically change the number of automobiles

on the 8 interstate between Southern California and Southern Nevada. The ripple effect of this will include alower number of traffic fatalities, lost time on account of congestion, improved roadways, and easierconstruction progress as congestion on the I-15 shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Federal Railroad Administration, 2009 Forty-eight percent of visitors toLas Vegas 2010 drove their own automobiles. Twentysix percent of visitors to Las Vegas in 2010 were from Southern California. (GLS Research, 2010) The current potentialpaid-forecast of ridership per year is 6,490,000 which is 40% of traffic on the California border. This estimate is seen by some as unrealistic. (NewberryInfo, 2011)

Nevertheless, any reduction of congestion is positive. DesertXpress claims that the HRS would carry 1,350passengers during a typical peak hour in the first full year of operation and peak hour capacity could reach 5,000 (United States Department ofTransportation 2011A). This will most certainly reduce the travelers to Las Vegas by automobile . Lastly, there are a number9 of auto accidents on I-15 which are caused by reckless driver and congestion in which one or both causesrear-end collisions. The fatal accident rate within a portion of the I-15 in-between Barstow and the Nevada State Line exceeded statewide averages between 2003and 2005. In addition, nearly50% of traffic accidents between the Nevada State line and Spring Mountain road were infact rear end collisions (Federal Railroad Adminstration, 2011B). By reducing the number of autos on the road between thesetwo points, the interstate will be much safer.


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AT: Topicality - SubstantialDesert Xpress would increase High Speed Rail in the US by 100%


If built, DesertXpress would be the second high-speed rail line in the United States. Amtrak's Acela Express, whichruns the crowded Washington D.C.-Boston corridor, hits 150 mph.


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AT: Spending

Desert Xpress costs will decline construction and labor costs are falling


"DesertXpress, however, does expect that cost savings will occur as the final design is completed and theregulatory environment stabilizes." Other developers, while not building railroads, say construction costs havedropped due to the Las Vegas real estate collapse. Dennis Smith, president of the Las Vegas consulting company Home Builders Research Inc.,

estimates that the vertical costs of subdivisions -- excluding land -- have dropped about 40 percent in the past six years. John Knott, executive vicepresident of CB Richard Ellis, which handles commercial real estate, said, "The cost of construction has fallenfrom the peak because labor is less and there is less demand."


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AT: California CP

California wont fund Desert Express now they dont have the money

San Jose Mercury News, 2012 [By: Mike Rosenberg, Senior Staff Writer High speed rail chief: Bullet train won't cost $100 billion 3/14/2012 ;Accessed 3/26/12 http://www.mercurynews.com/california-high-speed-rail/ci_20168582/high-speed-rail-chief-bullet-train-wont-cost?source=googlenews&google_editors_picks=true ]

Richard did not shed light on the fact that California does not have about 85 percent of the funding needed to build the train."I don't think we'll be able to look (the Legislature) or the public in the eye and tell them that we have any

greater clarity about the funding today," Richard said. He did, however, defend estimates that enough passengers will ride the train to turn a profit.Richard testified before key Senate Democrats and a packed house at the 600-seat Mountain View Center for the Performing Arts during a rare Silicon Valley hearing on theproject.


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Elections Links - Unpopular

Desert Xpress is controversial neighborhood groups and bypassed communities


Public Opinion11 There is much debate on the viability, safety, and overall need for the DesertXpress. The followingsection is feedback from community sources. A larger question is whether Washington is ready to handle the rollout of high speed rails. It isunderstood that the administrations plan of a twenty-five year master project puts them into unchartedterritory(Demirjian, 2011). There are many entities however, that are against the DesertXpress project. As an example, the city of Barstow hasexplained their belief that they will lose rev