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Desalination Trends
John TonnerWater Consultants International
1Desalination expert with experience from 1985. Patented inventor in field of desalination. Experienced engineer as well as Sales and Marketing Executive with several desalination manufacturers before joining WaterCI as Vice President in 2002. Member of the International Desalination Association board of directors 1999-2001 and 2001-2003 where the board elected him an Officer. With decades of prior experience Water Consultants International (WaterCI) was founded in January, 1991 and has built a solid reputation as a foremost consulting firm. In 2002, WaterCI merged with World-Wide-Water adding skills, experience and personnel.
WaterCI provides commercial and technical services which optimize• commercial agreements/contracts• materials of construction• pretreatment requirements, andenergy utilization/recoverywhich are key factors to achieving succesful products and projects.
Over 200 contracts have been directed and executed by the firm’s principals and associates. This team has special appreciation of the development, design, construction, and O & M of facilities ranging from sophisticated industrial sites to remote water-short areas of the world.
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Growth in desalination market
• Growth by region in the UN “International Year of Freshwater”– Consumption doubling every twenty
years
– Twice the rate of population growth
– By 2025 demand is expected to exceed supply by 56%
2Data: Blue Gold - the battle against corporate threat of the world’s water (Barlow & Clarke, Canada ISBN 1 85383 937X www.earthscan.co.uk)
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Desalination in North Africa
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
Tho
usan
ds C
ubic
Met
ers
per
Day
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Tho
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ds U
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North Africa
North Africa - trendline
3Data: IDA Inventory #17 and WaterCI database Includes plants under construction for operation in 2003. This region is part of a current World Bank study and will be shown to have an unusual trend when compared to later data.
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Desalination in Central Asia
0
20
40
60
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120
140
160
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
Tho
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ds C
ubic
Met
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per
Day
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Tho
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ds U
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ay Central Asia
4Data: IDA Inventory #17 and WaterCI database Includes plants under construction for operation in 2003.Sharp spike relates to several oil sector projects. This region is part of a current World Bank study.
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Desalination in Southern Europe
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
Tho
usan
ds C
ubic
Met
ers
per
Day
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Tho
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ds U
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ay
Southern Europe
5Data: IDA Inventory #17 and WaterCI database Includes plants under construction for operation in 2003.Continuous growth mostly for municipal water supply but industrial applications are also increasing.
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Global Desalination
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
Mill
ion
Cub
ic M
eter
s pe
r D
ay
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Mill
ion
US
Gal
lons
per
Day
Global
Middle East
6Data: IDA Inventory #17 and WaterCI database Includes plants under construction for operation in 2003.While many people believe only the “oil rich Arab states” can afford desalination this chart clearly shows that growth in the Middle East is lagging behind the global utilization of these processes.
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Technology/process market share and developments
By number of units
Other processes
1%Thermal22%
Membrane77%
7Data: IDA Inventory #17 and WaterCI database Includes plants under construction for operation in 2003.This is based only on the number of units installed and does not reflect total production capacity.
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Technology/process market share and developments
By installed capacity
Membrane45%
Thermal55%
Other processes
0%
8Data: IDA Inventory #17 and WaterCI database Includes plants under construction for operation in 2003.This chart represents the total installed production capacity. Clearly the bulk of processes utilize one of two broad technology types; thermal or membrane. Thermal processes include MSF, MED, MED-TC and MVC. Membrane processes include RO, ED and EDR.The Concise Environmental Engineering Dictionary and Directory definitions: (ED) electrodialysis The separation of a solution's ionic components through the use of semipermeable, ion-selective membranes operating in a DC electric field.(EDR) electrodialysis reversal A variation of the electrodialysis process using electrode polarity reversal to automatically clean membrane surfaces.(MED) multiple effect distillation A thin film evaporation process where the vapor formed in a chamber, or effect, condenses in the next, providing a heat source for further evaporation.(MED-TC) multiple effect distillation with thermal compression.(MSF) multistage flash evaporation A desalination process where a stream of brine flows through the bottom of chambers, or stages, each operating at a successively lower pressure, and a proportion of it flashes into steam and is then condensed.(MVC) mechanical vapor compression Evaporative system where vapor boiled off in the evaporator is mechanically compressed and reused as the heating medium.(RO) Reverse osmosis A method of separating water from dissolved salts by passing feedwater through a semipermeable membrane at a pressure greater than the osmotic pressure caused by the dissolved salts.
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Technology/process market share and developments
• Incremental development– Larger MSF
9
MSF plants are now operating with single unit capacities of over 55,000 m3/d (12 MIGD)MED-TC plants continue to take market share from MSF due to lower CAPEX and pumping
OPEX. Unit capacities now above 23,000 m3/d ( 5 MIGD)Better membrane performance, operating at lower pressures and improved salt rejection and lower CAPEX improve the water cost using the RO process.Energy is a significant OPEX cost and improvements in RO energy recovery have led to
significant reductions in specific energy consumption rates (kWh/m3). Energy recovery systems which were proprietary technology a few years ago are now available as components for all RO OEMs.
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Technology/process market share and developments
• Incremental development– Larger MED-TC
10
MSF plants are now operating with single unit capacities of over 55,000 m3/d (12 MIGD)MED-TC plants continue to take market share from MSF due to lower CAPEX and pumping
OPEX. Unit capacities now above 23,000 m3/d ( 5 MIGD)Better membrane performance, operating at lower pressures and improved salt rejection and lower CAPEX improve the water cost using the RO process.Energy is a significant OPEX cost and improvements in RO energy recovery have led to
significant reductions in specific energy consumption rates (kWh/m3). Energy recovery systems which were proprietary technology a few years ago are now available as components for all RO OEMs.
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Technology/process market share and developments
• Incremental development– Better membranes
11
MSF plants are now operating with single unit capacities of over 55,000 m3/d (12 MIGD)MED-TC plants continue to take market share from MSF due to lower CAPEX and pumping
OPEX. Unit capacities now above 23,000 m3/d ( 5 MIGD)Better membrane performance, operating at lower pressures and improved salt rejection and lower CAPEX improve the water cost using the RO process.Energy is a significant OPEX cost and improvements in RO energy recovery have led to
significant reductions in specific energy consumption rates (kWh/m3). Energy recovery systems which were proprietary technology a few years ago are now available as components for all RO OEMs.
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Technology/process market share and developments
• Incremental development– RO energy recovery
12
MSF plants are now operating with single unit capacities of over 55,000 m3/d (12 MIGD)MED-TC plants continue to take market share from MSF due to lower CAPEX and pumping
OPEX. Unit capacities now above 23,000 m3/d ( 5 MIGD)Better membrane performance, operating at lower pressures and improved salt rejection and lower CAPEX improve the water cost using the RO process.Energy is a significant OPEX cost and improvements in RO energy recovery have led to
significant reductions in specific energy consumption rates (kWh/m3). Energy recovery systems which were proprietary technology a few years ago are now available as components for all RO OEMs.
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Trends in Project Delivery Models• Municipal/potable market there is a
shift from Public Sector DBB to Private Sector DBOOT– Shift of risk/responsibility– Performance rather than Equipment
specification (requires less detail process knowledge for municipalities and banks not familiar with the technology).
13Much desal CAPEX and OPEX data was based on commercial financing schemes. New projects now utilize financing schemes similar to traditional water supply schemes (i.e. long term bonds) which greatly improves the competitiveness of desalination. New project delivery models make the transition to desalination technology commercially and technically simpler for the Offtaker.
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Design Bid Build (DBB)
14Typical DBB project delivery model.
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Design Build Own Operate Transfer (DBOOT)
15Typical DBOOT project delivery model.
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Changes in water pricing
• Commodification– True cost of traditional water identified
• Large scale commodified desalination– ≈US$0.50/m3 – Competitive with traditional sources in
many locations
16Commodification claimed to “hit the poor hard” Reality is that commodification identifies the real economic cost of water, no matter what process is used to treat the water. It is our believe that cost of water in many locations must be high, even excluding any profit in the selling price. However, we also believe that using subsidy to reduce the price below the cost to a point which “the poor” can afford is short sighted. The cost is the cost and if subsidy is required it should be open and transparent.
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Changes in water pricing
$0.25/m3
$0.45/m3
$0.65/m3
$0.85/m3
$1.05/m3
$1.25/m3
$1.45/m3
$1.65/m3
1991 1997 2000 2001 2003
Contract Yr
17Projects referenced; Santa Barabara, Bahamas, Dheklia, Larnaca, Point Lisas, Tampa, Ashkelon, Sulabiya, PUB SIN
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Dual purpose/Co-location• Co-locating Power and Desal
– Combined intake/outfall– Combined permitting/environmental issues
• Dual purpose– Integration of desalination into power process
• Increased thermodynamic efficiency
– Could also be applied to other non-power industries
– Regulatory structure must support dual purpose
18Co-location has been used for recently executed and planned projects in locations such as the USA. This has the obvious benefit of shared utilities (intake/outfall) and related environmental permits. Co-location does not permit the power generation and desalination processes to be integrated in a manner which improves thermodynamic efficiency and economics. In some markets the Regulatory structure does not favor or permit combined utilities - this is a primary reason why large dual purpose power/desal projects are not developed outside the Middle East. The heat normally rejected from power plants (via cooling towers or heat exchangers) is more usefully utilized in dual purpose projects - however any similar heat source from cooling of industrial or petrochemical can also be utilized.
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Dual purpose - hybrid
19A hybrid desalination - combined cycle power station. A gas turbine generator provides electricity while a special boiler (heat recovery steam generator) makes steam using the turbine’s hot exhaust gas. The steam is used to drive a steam turbine which is connected to a second generator. Combining these two thermodynamic processes yields improved efficiency. Some of the steam expanded through the turbine is usefully condensed by providing heat to a desalination process further improving efficiency. The thermal desalination process preheats feedwater for an RO desalination unit which also improves electricity. By having a desalination facility which utilizes both steam (in the distiller) and power (in the RO) the operator has greater flexibility in meeting the water and power demands. It is not uncommon for the ratio of power to water which is demanded by consumers to vary greatly on a seasonal basis; this hybrid approach gives greatest flexibility in achieving optimal economic performance.
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Decentralized Water• Desalination can make water where it is needed
– Avoids investment in unnecessary water transport infrastructure
– Reduces unaccounted for water (UFW)
• Decentralized power 7% of world’s total
– Some countries exceed 40%
– Double share by 2012• Predicted to reduce 720 M Tonnes of CO (25% of global
Kyoto objective)
• Decentralized dual purpose desalination– improve on this projection by increasing thermodynamic
efficiency
20COSPP Nov/Dec 2002; Maine (USA) 30+%, Denmark, Finland & Netherlands all 40+%. Studies and projections by World Survey of Decentralized Energy (WADE) [email protected] are many locations in the developing and developed world where waste heat can be used to “fuel” desalination processes. This can be both a centralized and decentralized method of operation which can be encouraged by Regulators and Financiers. There is a Caribbean example of 300MW of waste heat from single purpose gas turbine power plantwhich is not recovered or unused for any purpose - a single purpose desalination facility was installed with no energy integration at all because utilization of the waste heat while more efficient could not be “competitively tendered”. There are many exothermic industries which may have no need for their waste heat nor have demand for water - they should be encouraged to produce water for sale and use of others in their region. There are also examples of exothermic industries which demand large quantities of water. If the local water tariff is too low these industries will take “traditional water” often leaving little or none for the local community (examples - mining operations in Peru and Tunisia).
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Reclamation (Re)Use Water
• Desalination technologies are being used for direct and indirect potable reuse.– Activists say uncontrolled reuse is common
– Controlled reuse is better referred to as Controlled Use
– MF/RO is most common reclamation method offering double membrane barriers in processing
– Aquifer recharge is being used in some indirect reuse schemes• Lively debate on the risks and benefits of aquifer
recharge
21COSPP Nov/Dec 2002; Maine (USA) 30+%, Denmark, Finland & Netherlands all 40+%. Studies and projections by World Survey of Decentralized Energy (WADE) [email protected] are many locations in the developing and developed world where waste heat can be used to “fuel” desalination processes. This can be both a centralized and decentralized method of operation which can be encouraged by Regulators and Financiers. There is a Caribbean example of 300MW of waste heat from single purpose gas turbine power plantwhich is not recovered or unused for any purpose - a single purpose desalination facility was installed with no energy integration at all because utilization of the waste heat while more efficient could not be “competitively tendered”. There are many exothermic industries which may have no need for their waste heat nor have demand for water - they should be encouraged to produce water for sale and use of others in their region. There are also examples of exothermic industries which demand large quantities of water. If the local water tariff is too low these industries will take “traditional water” often leaving little or none for the local community (examples - mining operations in Peru and Tunisia).
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Other comments• Commodification of water yields
respect• Respect leads to better handling
– Privatized desalination tends to have lower UFW• Less than 5% loss is not uncommon• ...why....because the desalinated water is
treated as a valuable resource/commodity.
22CUC, WEB each confirmed losses of less than 5% with targets of 2.5-3%.
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Closing comments• Desalination is growing more rapidly globally than in
the regions where it is perceived to be most used.• Desalination is being selected in relatively wet
locations in direct commercial competition with traditional water sources.
• Stress on existing water supplies expected to grow by 56% by 2050
• Desalination is an important option which can be encouraged by Regulatory and Developmental Agencies
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