DERBY COUNTDOWN

SATURDAY, MARCH 26, 2016

Louisiana Derby UAE Derby

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Gun RunnerPhoto by Coady Photography

DERBY COUNTDOWN

The top five finishers from last month’s Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes return to Fair Grounds for Saturday’s $1 million Louisiana Derby, the final stop on the New Orleans road to the Kentucky Derby. The nine-furlong Louisiana Derby offers Grade 2 black type as well as 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner.

MO TOM (6), third in the Risen Star, is taken to avenge that defeat. A one-run closer at the mercy of pace and racing luck, Mo Tom was stopped in the midst of his Risen Star stretch rally and forced to check severely. One could argue that he would have won with a cleaner trip. Mo Tom probably will lag far behind early in the Louisiana Derby, but his late kick is potent indeed.

GUN RUNNER (1) received a beautiful ride from Florent Geroux in the Risen Star. The pair saved ground over a track that was kinder to inside paths, eased out turning for home, and held gamely. Gun Runner has better positional speed than Mo Tom and likely will get the jump on that one again.

GREENPOINTCRUSADER (2) invades from Florida, where he finished a gallant second to leading 3-year-old Mohaymen in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes. Green-pointcrusader, the lone Grade 1 winner in this field, gets class relief and can work out a nice tracking trip.

FOREVAMO (11) rode the inside for most of the way at

40-1 odds in the Risen Star and was up for second after easing out in upper stretch. He boasts improving Beyer Speed Figures for his third start of his form cycle but must overcome a tough post.

CANDY MY BOY (5) faded to fifth in the Risen Star after setting the pace. He projects as the early leader once again, and his Beyers have gone up with every start for Roger Brueggemann.

BATTERY (3) is the lone entrant with prior form at this distance, as he handled a weak field of ‘n1x’ horses at Gulfstream Park for Todd Pletcher. He shouldn’t be too far away when the field straightens onto the back-stretch.

CONQUEST WINDYCITY (4) and DAZZLING GEM (9) both ship in sharp from Oaklawn Park for shrewd train-ers. The former looked good in his seasonal debut when downing the Grade 1-placed Rated R Superstar. The undefeated Dazzling Gem was forced to miss last week’s Rebel Stakes with a foot abscess but has displayed enor-mous potential.

TOM’S READY (7) and UNCLE WALTER (8) finished up the track in the Risen Star, but both might have been compromised by racing well off the rail.

ZAPPERINI (10), fifth in the Risen Star, his first start against winners, completes the field.

Louisiana Derby Analysis BY DAN ILLMAN

TENTH RACE Probable Post 5:12 CDT1 1/8 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. LaDerby (Grade 2). Purse: $1,000,000PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L.

6 Mo Tom ...........................Lanerie C J ................ 122 ........5-21 Gun Runner .....................Geroux F .................... 122 ........3-12 Greenpointcrusader .......Velazquez J R ........... 122 ........7-23 Battery .............................Castellano J J ........... 122 ......10-111 Forevamo ........................Hernandez C J .......... 122 ......10-19 Dazzling Gem ..................Bridgmohan S X ....... 122 ......12-14 Conquest Windycity ......Rocco J S Jr.............. 122 ......15-15 Candy My Boy ................Torres F C .................. 122 ......15-17 Tom’s Ready ...................Hernandez B J Jr ...... 122 ......15-18 Uncle Walter ...................Albarado R J ............. 122 ......20-110 Zapperini .........................Leparoux J R ............ 122 ......20-1Blinkers On: Uncle Walter

DERBY COUNTDOWN

GUN RUNNER (Record: 4-3-0-0, 51 Derby points)Best Beyer: 90Trainer: Steve Asmussen (Asmussen has won this race twice, the last in 2008 with Pyro.)Jockey: Florent Geroux Formulator Facts: Asmussen is 5 for 44 or 11 percent the last 5 years with second-off-the-layoff sophomores in a graded stakes, and 11 ran second. Outlook: There has been only one off effort for this runner so far and he caught the slop that day. He beat a pretty nice horse in his second career start as the show horse that day took a $75,000 stakes and then was second to Destin, the eventual Tampa Bay Derby winner with a 100 Beyer. The place horse in this runner’s 2015 finale took a Grade 1, won the Grade 3 Lewis, and was a troubled second in the San Felipe on March 12. Value: Primed for his 2016 debut here about five weeks ago, this racer broke a half-step slowly, was shuffled, and although he raced on the best part of the track, he was impressive in victory. Value: His tactical speed should give him the first run on the deep closers today, and a price of 3-1 or 7-2 would be acceptable.

GREENPOINTCRUSADER (Record: 5-2-2-0, 14 Derby points)Best Beyer: 94Trainer: Dominick Schettino Jockey: John Velazquez (Velazquez was with Circular Quay in 2007.)Formulator Facts: Schettino is 0 for 9 the last 5 years with runners off 31 to 60 days in a graded stakes, but two ran in the money, at 12-1 and 16-1.

Outlook: This is the leading money earner in the field. He lost his best chance in his only poor effort, which came vs. Nyquist when forced to race eight wide. He was given time to recover from that solid effort and ran well in defeat in the Holy Bull. He was flattered when the winner of the Holy Bull took the Fountain of Youth and will likely take his unbeaten record into the Florida Derby on April 2. He proved his class taking the Champagne last year. Value: He pushed a moderate pace in the Holy Bull and will need to show he can excel as the distances increase. If you figure he just needed the last race, you can make a case for a move forward, and 4-1 or so would appear to be a good value for him.

BATTERY (Record: 4-2-1-0, 0 Derby points)Best Beyer: 86Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Pletcher won this race 3 times, the last in 2013 with Revolutionary.)Jockey: Javier Castellano (Castellano rode Revolutionary in 2013.)Formulator Facts: Pletcher is 10 for 67 or 15 percent the last five years with third-off-the-layoff sophomores in graded stakes with median odds of 7-2.Outlook: This $350,000 purchase was off slowly on the synthetic track at Woodbine in his debut. He lost ground late in his 2016 opener and was not exactly flattered by the winner, who was fourth in the Rebel Stakes in his next start. Value: He has an edge on the field as the only runner that has won at this nine-furlong distance, and his tracking style fits well. A price of 8-1 or 10-1 would be solid value for him today.

CONQUEST WINDYCITY (Record: 4-2-1-0, 1 Derby points)Best Beyer: 76Trainer: Mark CasseJockey: Joe Rocco Formulator Facts: Casse is 9 for 92 the last five years with second-off-the-layoff runners in a graded stakes with a median price of $13.Outlook: Primed for his first start of the year, this son of Tiznow earned his career-top Beyer. He has recorded bullet workouts since. In his second career start, he got a hot pace to close into and made a nice middle move, but could not carry on with the momentum.

There are stamina issues to address. He lost a bit of ground late in his maiden win going a sixteenth of a mile shorter than today’s event. And not sure he was beating anybody last time as the place horse that day returned to again run second, beaten two lengths.Value: With his closing style, he is at the mercy of how the race unfolds, and even at 15-1 or so, he will need every-thing to break just right.

Louisiana Derby Super Looks BY BRIAN MULLIGAN

DERBY COUNTDOWN

CANDY MY BOY (Record: 7-2-2-0, 5 Derby points)Best Beyer: 86Trainer: Roger BrueggemannJockey: Francisco Torres Outlook: This reformed claimer ran fourth to Gun Runner last time. He recorded a bullet workout eight days ago that was a tick the best over double winner and stablemate Doggerwinii. Value: There is not a ton of front-running speed in this race and this colt is best when sent along, but he has also lost ground late in both of the wins. One could envision him getting a contested lead, but since he has been tiring, 12-1 or 15-1 would seem to be the right value for him today.

MO TOM (Record: 6-3-0-3, 22 Derby points)Best Beyer: 88Trainer: Tom Amoss Jockey: Corey Lanerie Formulator Facts: Amoss is 1 for 9 the last five years with third-off-the-layoff runners in a graded stakes. That runner paid over $17 and two others ran in the money. Outlook: Consistency has been this runner’s calling card. He was left with a bit too much to do last time, but the way he finished suggests he’ll relish this distance. He was also forced to check sharply last time by the ninth-place finisher. He was agile enough to overcome hitting the gate in his 2016 opener and has drilled forwardly since his last race. Value: This youngster has shown he can quicken and the pace figures to be honest today if somebody pushes Candy My Boy. The colt seems to be improving, and even at 2-1 he would be solid value.

TOM’S READY (Record: 8-1-3-0, 4 Derby points)Best Beyer: 84Trainer: Dallas Stewart (Stewart won this race in 1999.)Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Formulator Facts: Stewart is only 1 for 54 the last five years with 3-year-olds in a graded stakes, but eight of his runners ran second at odds between 8-5 and 37-1. Outlook: This $145,000 purchase is in good hands, and his connections thought enough of him to try the Grade 1 Hopeful early in his career. The concern is that he has had a tough time in the stakes attempts so far. He is reunited with the rider from his lone win.Value: This son of More Than Ready was hung wide last time, when the inside of the track was the place to be. Since this runner has not demonstrated that killer instinct, taking 20-1 or so would be honest value.

UNCLE WALTER (Record: 4-1-1-1, 2 Derby points) Best Beyer: 84Trainer: Mike Maker (Maker has won this race in 2014 and also last year with International Star.)Jockey: Robby Albarado (Albarado won this in 1999 with Kimberlite Pipe.)Formulator Facts: Maker is 1 for 5 the last five years with sophomores using first-time blinkers in a graded stakes. Outlook: This racer closed about two lengths in the stretch to win his debut by a neck as the second choice. He prob-ably his lost best chance in his last race when he landed post 10.

The competition he has faced is iffy. The runner that beat him in his 2015 finale has lost twice since. The trainer adds the blinkers today. Value: With only one win and the fact that he has been

beaten by a number of today’s runners, even at 25-1 or 30-1 would be stretching his value.

DAZZLING GEM (Record: 2-2-0-0, 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 83Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan (Bridgmohan won this race in 2008 with Pyro.)Formulator Facts: Cox is 19 for 77 or 25 percent the last five years with last-out winning sophomores, and 12 ran second. Outlook: He has made no mistakes so far and has been professional in both wins. Put in a bullet workout on March 15, tied with 10-time winner Crooked as Can Be and stakes winner Ghost Locket. This colt’s most recent race was live as the show horse took a $62,500 optional claimer and the seventh finisher beat an entry-level allowance group at Houston. Value: This runner could very well sit a nice stalk-and-pounce trip here, but he has a lot to prove today against proven stakes winners. Considering the step up, a price of 15-1 or so would be fair value.

Louisiana Derby Super Looks CONTINUED

DERBY COUNTDOWN

ZAPPERINI (Record: 3-1-1-0, 0 Derby points)Best Beyer: 74Trainer: Greg Foley Jockey: Julien Leparoux Outlook: Backers have to hope his try in the stakes last time will help him along, but he was the longest shot on the tote board and basically just passed a few tired horse. He has been fit enough to work a couple of times since the last effort.Value: One could envision the rider today taking a little hold, trying to get the runner to settle, and then getting him to make the one run. Since things would need to unfold nearly perfectly, 20-1 would be about right.

FOREVAMO (Record: 6-1-3-0, 20 Derby points)Best Beyer: 89Trainer: Albert Stall Jockey: Colby Hernandez Formulator Facts: Stall is 1 for 13 the last five years with third-off-the-layoff runners in a graded stakes. That runner was 7-2, and six others ran in the money. Outlook: This colt stretched out from seven furlongs to a mile and won his maiden in a stakes at Delta Downs in the slop.

He could have been intimidated by the rail in his next race in the Delta Downs Jackpot. Four exited that race to win next out, including Whitmore, who placed in stakes twice since, and Sunny Ridge, who took the Withers and then was fourth in the Gotham. The way Forevamo closed last time at 40-1 suggests he is improving. Value: He did get a pretty good trip last time against Gun Runner, but could not quicken in time. If you figure the last race was not a fluke, taking 10-1 or 12-1 would seem to be logical.

Louisiana Derby Super Looks CONTINUED

DERBY COUNTDOWN

GUN RUNNERPedigree: Candy Ride – Quiet Giant (by Giant’s Causeway)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 6.96 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 59Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 1,033 foals of racing age, 5.3% SWs, 2.4% GSWsDam’s produce record: 1 foal of racing age, 1 starter, 1 winnerDam’s progeny average winning distance: 8.2 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 90

GREENPOINTCRUSADERPedigree: Bernardini – Ava Knowsthecode (by Crypto-clearance)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 7.6 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 59Sire history: 7 crops, 1,240 foals, 4% SWs, 2.6% GSWsDam’s produce record: 13 foals, 9 starters, 8 winners. Dam of Grade 1 winner Justin Phillip, Grade 2 winner Keyed Entry, Grade 3 winners Algorithms and Successful Mission, stakes winner Alex’s Allure Dam’s progeny average winning distance: 7 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 97

BATTERYBernardini – Flawless Diamond (by Saint Ballado)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 7.6 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 59Sire history: 7 crops, 1,240 foals, 4% SWs, 2.6% GSWsDam’s produce record: 9 foals, 8 starters, 8 winners. Dam of stakes winner Blue Heart, Grade 3-placed Heshin Hero, stakes-placed Final Redemption, Diamondaire Dam’s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 71.7

CONQUEST WINDYCITYPedigree: Tiznow – Lasting Appeal (by A.P. Indy)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 7.6 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 59Sire history: 12 crops, 1,223 foals, 5% SWs, 3% GSWsDam’s produce record: 6 foals, 4 starters, 4 winnersDam’s progeny average winning distance: 7.7 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 73.5

CANDY MY BOY Pedigree: Candy Ride – Runway Rosie (by Include)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 6.96 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 59Sire history: 9 crops, 1,033 foals, 5.3% SWs, 2.4% GSWsDam’s produce record: 4 foals, 4 starters, 4 winnersDam’s progeny average winning distance: 7.6 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 77.5

MO TOM Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Caroni (by Rubiano)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 49Sire history: 2 crops, 323 foals, 2.2% SWs, 1.2% GSWsDam’s produce record: 9 foals, 7 starters, 6 winners. Dam of stakes winners Beautician, Bella CastaniDam’s progeny average winning distance: 7.6 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 79.2

TOM’S READYPedigree: More Than Ready – Goodbye Stranger (by Broad Brush)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 6.87 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 58Sire history: 13 crops of racing age, 2,510 foals, 6.3% SWs, 2.8% GSWsDam’s produce record: 4 foals, 4 starters, 4 winnersDam’s progeny average winning distance: 6.5 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 72.7

UNCLE WALTERPedigree: Uncle Mo – Look for Good (by Unbridled’s Song)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 49Sire history: 2 crops, 323 foals, 2.2% SWs, 1.2% GSWsDam’s produce record: 9 foals, 8 starters, 7 winners. Dam of stakes-placed Mis Vizcaya and JagatiDam’s progeny average winning distance: 6.2 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 70

DAZZLING GEM Pedigree: Misremembered – Dazzler (by Vindication)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 6.5 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 39Sire history: 2 crops, 57 foals, 4% SWs, 2% GSWsDam’s produce record: 4 foals, 3 starters, 3 winnersDam’s progeny average winning distance: 6.7 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 86

Louisiana Derby Pedigree BY NICOLE RUSSO

DERBY COUNTDOWN

ZAPPERINI Pedigree: Ghostzapper – Bobby’s Babe (by Smart Strike)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 7.19 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 56Sire history: 8 crops, 632 foals, 8.4% SWs, 4.3% GSWsDam’s produce record: 5 foals, 4 starters, 3 winnersDam’s progeny average winning distance: 6.6 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 73

FOREVAMOPedigree: Uncle Mo – Candlelightdinner (by Slew Gin Fizz)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 49Sire history: 3 crops, 323 foals, 2.2% SWs, 1.2% GSWsDam’s produce record: 7 foals, 7 starters, 5 winners. Dam of champion female sprinter Musical Romance, Puerto Rican champion Vuelve Ruben M.Dam’s progeny average winning distance: 7.5 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 65.3

Louisiana Derby Pedigree CONTINUED

DERBY COUNTDOWN

Gun Runner

Greenpointcrusader

Battery

Conquest Windycity

Candy My Boy

Mo Tom

Tom’s Ready

Uncle Walter

Dazzling Gem

Zapperini

Forevamo

Louisiana Derby Beyer ChartCareer-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field AVERAGE

WINNING BEYER 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95BEYER SPEED FIGURES 97.72

Track’s mornling line odds

FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: 94.40

WINNERS 2011: Pants On Fire, 94 2012: Hero of Order, 90 2013: Revolutionary, 95 2014: Vicar’s in Trouble, 97 2015: International Star, 96

DERBY COUNTDOWN

Louisiana Derby Pace Projection

PACE 2 3/4 mile

START

FINISH

FAIR GROUNDS, 1 1/8 miles

1st: Mo Tom

2nd: Gun Runner

3rd: Greenpointcrusader

PACE 1 1/2 mile

DERBY COUNTDOWN

FRANK CONVERSATION (1), the winner of the $100,000 California Derby and Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby, both contested over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate Fields, attempts to earn his way into the Kentucky Derby with a big performance in Saturday’s Grade 2 UAE Derby at 1 3/16 miles on dirt at Meydan. The UAE Derby offers a purse of $2 million, with the winner receiving 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points.

Frank Conversation has run twice on dirt without much success, but handicappers will note that there were extenuating circumstances. In his career debut, he raced at a distance short of his best. In the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, the Quality Road colt was put on the lead and, perhaps out of his element. He hasn’t beaten the top 3-year-olds in North America but seems like a nice fit in the UAE Derby despite having to race without Lasix.

If Frank Conversation is to win, he must down the undefeated filly POLAR RIVER (2), who grabbed the UAE Oaks over the course and distance March 3. Polar River won the Oaks by only three-quarters of a length but was geared down after taking over two furlongs from home. Also, she had suffered from some minor

issues going into the race. Polar River has excellent tactical speed and is the one to beat.

VALE DORI (5) could play the role of spoiler. A South-ern Hemisphere 4-year-old filly by UAE Derby winner Asiatic Boy, Vale Dori returned from an injury-induced layoff to finish a game second in the UAE Oaks. Her good speed could play very well, and she likely will be much fitter for this assignment.

LAZZAM (7) settles for minor awards, as evidenced by his 8-1-5-1 record. He broke slowly in the listed Al Bastakiya Stakes on March 5 and was no match for the favored winner. He seems best utilized at the bottom of exotics.

Three Japanese-based horses shoot for this year’s UAE Derby. LANI (3), a son of Tapit and Tenno Sho winner Heavenly Romance, has hinted at potential but gets a strong class test. Look for him to rally late.

YU CHANGE (4) tries dirt after racing exclusively on turf. Distance won’t be an issue as his dam was third in the Japanese Oaks. ON THE ROCKS (6) bombed in his sole start on dirt, but he raced freely on the lead, and his connections have hinted at a change in tactics. He must improve.

UAE Derby Analysis BY DAN ILLMAN

FOURTH RACE Probable Post 9:35 a.m. EDTAbout 1 3/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. Stakes. Purse: $2,000,000PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L.

2 Polar River.......................Dobbs P J ...................117 ........3-55 Vale Dori ..........................Soumillon C ...............127 ........9-21 Frank Conversation ........Gutierrez Mario .........121 ........8-14 Yu Change .......................Moreira J ....................121 ........8-13 Lani ..................................Take Y .........................121 ......10-16 On the Rocks ..................Demuro M ..................121 ......30-17 Lazzam ............................Dettori L .....................121 ......30-1

DERBY COUNTDOWN

FRANK CONVERSATION (Record: 6-3-0-1, 10 Derby points)Trainer: Doug O’NeillJockey: Mario Gutierrez Outlook: Two years ago, when Meydan Racecourse in Dubai had a synthetic track, Frank Conversation would have rated a major player. He’s 2 for 2 on all-weather surfaces, and managed to overcome post 11 to beat 12 rivals last out in the Grade 3 El Camino Real, staying nine furlongs, just 110 yards short of this distance. But Meydan is dirt now, and Frank Conversation’s lone dirt race, a well-beaten fifth in the Los Alamitos Futurity, was some-what worse than his prior turf form, and far worse than his subsequent synthetic form. In defense of the race, the competition was stronger than this, and he disputed the pace while probably best as a stalking type. Value: Even as the lone U.S. horse in North American pools, he could offer value, since Polar River has a follow-ing and is going to be the overwhelming favorite. If you think he’s better than his lone dirt try, have at it, because he’s as good a chance as any to take down the chalk.

POLAR RIVER (Record: 4-4-0-0, 0 Derby points)Trainer: Doug Watson Jockey: Patrick Dobbs Outlook: Her jockey, Pat Dobbs, rides for Richard Hannon in England, and the Hannon yard has more 2-year-olds, plenty of them very good, than any in England. Dobbs knows what a smart young horse feels like, and trainer Watson reports that after Dobbs worked this filly for the first time last November – just a moderate half-mile – he came back looking dumbfounded. She’s good – maybe really good, and I buy the excuses being attached to her workmanlike showing last time, which still was a win. Find her tough to oppose here. As for the Derby – forge about it. She’s an outside shot for the Kentucky Oaks, if

anything, that weekend.Value: Nil If you like to pound 2-5 shots coming off a subpar showing, have at it. Otherwise, choose between Vale Dori and Frank Conversation to oppose, or sit back and watch.

LANI (Record: 5-2-1-0, 0 Derby points)Trainer: Mikio Matsunaga Jockey: Yutaka TakeOutlook: The Japanese 3-year-old ranks are hardly littered with dirt horses worthy of U.S. stakes races. This horse, by Tapit, could be all right, but have to think it would take a standout to prove good enough to win or place in the UAE Derby and go on to Kentucky, rather than a horse who’s 2 for 4 without a truly superior win. Connections did think enough of him to nominate early to Triple Crown.Value: Will be a big price, 20-1 at least, and if you’re a believer you’re likely to find the odds appealing.

YU CHANGE (Record: 6-1-1-1, 0 Derby points)Trainer: Hideyuki Mori Jockey: Joao Moreira Outlook: Not nearly good enough, from the appearance of things, and has yet to try a dirt race of any sort.Value: It’s difficult to assign fair value to a runner who appears to have little realistic path to victory.

VALE DORI (Record: 4-2-2-0, 0 Derby points)Trainer: Mike de Kock - 6 UAE Derby winsJockey: Christophe Soumillon – 2 UAE Derby winsOutlook: Argentine-bred is a 4-year-old filly on Northern Hemisphere time, so pretty sure we’re not seeing her Run for the Roses. Her trainer, obviously, is a kingpin in this race: Won it last year with Mubtaahij, and won it in 2007 with her sire, Asiatic Boy. She was getting to Polar River last time in a comeback race she had to need for fitness – but Polar River can do better than that, as well.

Value: In North American pari-mutuel pools she’s probably third choice behind Polar River and Frank Conversation, and maybe she deserves to be second choice. Minor win pool value if you’re a believer, and she’s not impossible.

ON THE ROCKS (Record: 9-1-1-1, 0 Derby Points)Trainer: Hideyuki Mori Jockey: Mirco Demoru Outlook: With nine runs, it’s fair to say he’s pretty well generally exposed, though to be fair, only one of those races came on dirt, and to be fairer still, that dirt was muddy. That said, he finished seventh, beaten 15 lengths, in that race, and it’s not like the turf form is going to knock your socks off. Not Triple Crown-nominated. Not, realisti-cally, going to win or place here, either.Value: It’s difficult to assign fair value to a runner who appears to have little realistic path to victory.

LAZZAM (Record: 8-1-5-1, 0 Derby Points)Trainer: Marco Botti Jockey: Frankie Dettori – 2 UAE Derby winsOutlook: Market Rally was supposed to be the major local challenger to Polar River, but he was withdrawn from consideration for this race a couple weeks ago. Market Rally smoked this horse in the March 5 UAE Derby prep, and while Lazzam was second, there were but two others in the race. Untested at the distance, he probably has a considerably better chance than the three Japanese horses and a considerably worse chance than Vale Dori and Frank Conversation to take down the favorite.Value: Even with vaguely competitive form, it’s hard to see him attracting much betting action. If you think Polar River’s last says she’s vulnerable, that Vale Dori is going to bounce, and that Frank Conversation has to have an all-weather track for his best, you’ll get your price here.

UAE Derby Super Looks ANALYSIS BY MARCUS HERSH

DERBY COUNTDOWN

POLAR RIVERPedigree: Congrats – Bayou Tortuga (by Empire Maker)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 6.76 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 55Sire history: 7 crops of racing age, 877 foals, 3.9% SWs, 1.2% GSWsDam’s produce record: 2 foals of racing age, 1 winner, 1 SWDam’s progeny average winning distance: NADam’s progeny average best Beyer: NA

VALE DORIPedigree: Asiatic Boy – Valerina (by Halo Sunshine)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 7.50 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: NASire history: 3 crops of racing age, 152 foals, 2% SWs, 2% GSWsDam’s produce record: 4 foals of racing age, 2 winners, 1 SWDam’s progeny average winning distance: 6.79 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: NA

YU CHANGEPedigree: Swift Current – Yu Carat (by Winning Ticket)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 6.91 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: NASire history: 3 crops of racing age, 85 foals, 0% SWsDam’s produce record: 7 foals of racing age, 6 winnersDam’s progeny average winning distance: 6.90 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: NA

FRANK CONVERSATIONPedigree: Quality Road – Rushen Heat (by Unusual Heat)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 7.0 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 61Sire history: 3 crops of racing age, 277 foals, 2.5% SWs, 1% GSWsDam’s produce record: 5 foals of racing age, 3 winners, 1 SWDam’s progeny average winning distance: 7.29 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: 80

ON THE ROCKSPedigree: Samurai Heart– Belmont Hermes (by Timber Country)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 6.94 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: NASire history: 6 crops of racing age, 376 foals, 0% SWsDam’s produce record: 1 foal of racing age, 1 winnerDam’s progeny average winning distance: NADam’s progeny average best Beyer: NA

LANIPedigree: Tapit – Heavenly Romance (by Sunday Silence)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 7.47 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: 67Sire history: 9 crops of racing age, 1,013 foals, 7.4% SWs, 4.7% GSWsDam’s produce record: 7 foals of racing age, 6 winners, incl. Japan Group 3 stakes winner Awardee, Japan stakes winner Amour BrillerDam’s progeny average winning distance: 9.39 furlongsDam’s progeny average best Beyer: NA

LAZZAMPedigree: Archipenko – Empire Rose (by Sunray Spirit)Sire’s progeny average winning distance: 8.86 furlongsSire’s progeny average 2016 best Beyer: NASire history: 4 crops of racing age, 261 foals, 3.1% SWs, 1.1% GSWsDam’s produce record: 2 foals of racing age, 1 winnerDam’s progeny average winning distance: NADam’s progeny average best Beyer: NA

UAE Derby Pedigree PROFILES BY MARK SIMON

DERBY COUNTDOWN

UAE Derby Pace Projection

PACE 2 3/4 mile

START

FINISH

MEYDAN, 1 3/16 miles

1st: Vale Dori

2nd: Polar River

3rd: Frank Conversation

PACE 1 1/2 mile

DERBY COUNTDOWN

DATE .............RACE .......................................... DISTANCE .................TRACK ................................. WINNER ..............................BEYER .................................................................................................1ST .... 2ND .... 3RD ....4TH

Sept. 12 .... Iroquois ............................. 1 1/16M ............. Churchill Downs ..........Cocked and Loaded .... 82 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Sept. 26 .... FrontRunner ...................... 1 1/16M ............. Santa Anita ..................Nyquist ......................... 79 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Oct. 3 ........ Breeders’ Futurity ............. 1 1/16M ............. Keeneland ...................Brody’s Cause .............. 88 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Oct. 3 ........ Champagne ...................... 1M ..................... Belmont .......................Greenpointcrusader ..... 94 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Oct. 4 ........ Grey .................................. 1 1/16M (S) ....... Woodbine ....................Riker ............................. 85 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Oct. 31 ...... BC Juvenile ....................... 1 1/16M ............. Keeneland ...................Nyquist ......................... 89 .................................................................................. 20 ......8 ...... 4 .......2

Nov. 21 ..... Delta Downs Jackpot ........ 1 1/16M ............. Delta Downs ................Exaggerator .................. 92 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Nov. 28 ..... Remsen ............................. 1 1/8M ............... Aqueduct .....................Mohaymen .................... 94 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Nov. 28 ..... Kentucky Jockey Club ...... 1 1/16M ............. Churchill Downs ..........Airoforce ....................... 87 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Dec. 19 ..... Los Alamitos Futurity ........ 1 1/16M ............. Los Alamitos ................Mor Spirit ...................... 88 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Jan. 2 ........ Jerome .............................. 1 mile 70 yds ..... Aqueduct .....................Flexibility ....................... 90 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Jan. 9 ........ Sham ................................. 1M ..................... Santa Anita ..................Collected ...................... 80 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Jan. 16 ...... Lecomte ............................ 1 mile 70 yds ...... Fair Grounds ................Mo Tom ......................... 88 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Jan. 18 ...... Smarty Jones .................... 1M ..................... Oaklawn Park ..............Discreetness................. 83 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Jan. 30 ...... Holy Bull ............................ 1 1/16M ............. Gulfstream ...................Mohaymen .................... 95 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Jan. 30 ...... Withers .............................. 1 1/16M ............. Aqueduct .....................Sunny Ridge ................. 87 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Feb. 6 ....... Robert B. Lewis ................ 1 1/16M ............. Santa Anita Park ..........Mor Spirit ...................... 92 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Feb. 13 ..... El Camino Real Deby ........ 1 1/8M ................ Golden Gate ................Frank Conversation ...... 86 ...........................................................................................10 ...... 4 .......2 1

Feb. 15 ..... Southwest ......................... 1 1/16M ............. Oaklawn Park ..............Suddenbreakingnews .. 93 ...........................................................................................10 ...... 4 .......2 1

Road to the 2016 Kentucky Derby

DERBY COUNTDOWN

DATE .............RACE .......................................... DISTANCE .................TRACK ..............................WINNER ...................................... BEYER ............................................................................................1ST .... 2ND ....3RD ..4TH

Feb. 20 ..... Risen Star ......................... 1 1/16M ............. Fair Grounds .............Gun Runner ............................90 .......................................................................... 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

Feb. 27 ..... Fountain of Youth ............. 1 1/16M ............. Gulfstream ................Mohaymen ..............................95 .......................................................................... 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

March 5 .... Gotham ............................. 1 1/16M ............. Aqueduct ..................Shagaf .....................................87 .......................................................................... 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

March 12 .. Tampa Bay Derby ............. 1 1/16M ............. Tampa Bay Downs ....Destin ....................................100 .......................................................................... 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

March 12 .. San Felipe ......................... 1 1/16M ............. Santa Anita ...............Danzing Candy .....................100 .......................................................................... 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

March 19 .. Rebel ................................ 1 1/16M ............. Oaklawn ....................Cupid ......................................95 .......................................................................... 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

March 26 .. Louisiana Derby ................ 1 1/8M ............... Fair Grounds ........................................................................................................................................... 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

March 26 .. UAE Derby ........................ 1 3/16M ............. Meydan ................................................................................................................................................... 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

April 2 ....... Florida Derby .................... 1 1/8M ................ Gulfstream .............................................................................................................................................. 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

April 2 ....... Spiral ................................. 1 1/8M ................ Turfway Park ............................................................................................................................................. 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

April 9 ....... Wood Memorial ................. 1 1/8M ............... Aqueduct ................................................................................................................................................ 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

April 9 ....... Blue Grass ........................ 1 1/8M ............... Keeneland .............................................................................................................................................. 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

April 9 ....... Santa Anita Derby ............. 1 1/8M ............... Santa Anita ............................................................................................................................................. 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

April 16 ..... Arkansas Derby ................ 1 1/8M ............... Oaklawn Park ......................................................................................................................................... 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

April 16 ..... Lexington .......................... 1 1/16M .............. Keeneland ................................................................................................................................................ 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Kentucky Derby Championship Series

DERBY COUNTDOWN

1................Mohaymen ..............................Kiaran McLaughlin .................70 ..........................$760,3502................Destin ......................................Todd Pletcher .........................51 ..........................$338,0003................Gun Runner .............................Steve Asmussen ....................51 ..........................$249,2004................Cupid ......................................Bob Baffert .............................50 ..........................$540,0005................Danzing Candy .......................Cliff Sise Jr..............................50 ..........................$240,000

(Career: $308,650)6................ Shagaf .....................................Chad Brown ...........................50 ..........................$240,000

(Career: $298,800)7................Mor Spirit .................................Bob Baffert .............................44 ..........................$416,8008................Nyquist ....................................Doug O’Neill ...........................30 .......................$1,700,0009................ Exaggerator ............................Keith Desormeaux .................26 .......................$1,028,00010..............Whitmore .................................Ron Moquett...........................24 ..........................$300,00011.............. Sunny Ridge ........................... Jason Servis ...........................23 ..........................$525,60012..............Mo Tom ...................................Tom Amoss.............................22 ..........................$288,32613.............. Laoban ....................................Eric Guillot ..............................22 ............................$92,00014.............. Forevamo ................................Al Stall Jr. ...............................20 ..........................$210,00015.............. Zulu .........................................Todd Pletcher .........................20 ............................$79,20016..............Outwork ...................................Todd Pletcher .........................20 ............................$70,00017.............. Flexibility .................................Chad Brown ...........................15 ..........................$232,50018..............Brody’s Cause .........................Dale Romans..........................14 ..........................$500,00019..............Greenpointcrusader ................Dominick Schettino ................14 ..........................$369,30020.............. Swipe ......................................Keith Desormeaux .................12 ..........................$597,13021.............. Fellowship ...............................Stanley Gold...........................12 ..........................$115,59022..............Adventist .................................Leah Gyarmati .......................12 ............................$65,00023..............Collected .................................Bob Baffert .............................11 ..........................$105,00024..............Airoforce ..................................Mark Casse ............................10 ..........................$444,08025.............. Suddenbreakingnews .............Donnie Von Hemel .................10 ..........................$437,00026..............Cocked and Loaded ...............Larry Rivelli ............................10 ..........................$280,84027..............Discreetness ...........................Williams Fires .........................10 ..........................$248,15328.............. Frank Conversation .................Doug O’Neill ...........................10 ..........................$199,00029..............Riker ........................................Marc Casse ............................10 ..........................$189,37530..............Creator ....................................Steve Asmussen ....................10 ............................$90,00031.............. Star Hill ....................................Rusty Arnold II .......................10 ............................$36,50032..............Uncle Lino ...............................Gary Sherlock ..........................9 ............................$54,00033.............. Voricity .................................... James Lawrence II ...................8 ..........................$150,000

34..............Rated R Superstar ..................Kenny McPeek .........................6 ............................$80,20035..............Kasseopia ...............................Graham Motion ........................6 ............................$46,80936..............Awesome Speed .....................Alan Goldberg..........................5 ..........................$140,560 .................+Rafting ..................................Graham Motion ........................5 ..........................$103,07037..............Cherry Wine ............................Dale Romans............................5 ............................$45,00038..............Candy My Boy ........................Roger Brueggemann ...............5 ............................$16,00039.............. Toews on Ice ...........................Bob Baffert ...............................4 ..........................$228,90040.............. Tom’s Ready ............................Dallas Stewart ..........................4 ............................$70,670 .................+Tusk ......................................Graham Motion ........................4 ............................$40,250 .................+Gordy Florida ........................Kenny Smith .............................4 ............................$31,11141.............. Let’s Meet in Rio ......................Bob Baffert ...............................4 ............................$23,00042..............Harlan Punch ..........................Tom Amoss...............................2 ..........................$138,00043.............. Found Money ..........................Doug O’Neill .............................2 ..........................$135,000 .................+Hollywood Don .....................Peter Miller ...............................2 ............................$96,25044.............. I’malreadythere ....................... Jerry Hollendorfer ....................2 ............................$88,00045.............. Sail Ahoy .................................Shug McGaughey III ................2 ............................$60,00046..............American Dubai ......................Rodney Richards .....................2 ............................$52,000 .................+Portfolio Manager .................Chad Brown .............................2 ............................$50,000 .................+Tizzarunner ...........................Mark Casse ..............................2 ............................$40,94847..............Gift Box ...................................Chad Brown .............................2 ............................$40,00048.............. In Equality ...............................Leah Gyarmati .........................2 ............................$24,00049..............Uncle Walter ............................Mike Maker...............................2 ............................$20,00050.............. I Will Score .............................. Jerry Hollendorfer ....................2 ............................$18,45751.............. Synchrony ...............................Donnie Von Hemel ...................2 ............................$16,11252..............Unbridled Outlaw ....................Dale Romans............................2 ............................$14,10053..............Dressed in Hermes ................. Janet Armstrong.......................1 ..........................$238,84554..............Bird of Trey .............................. John Servis...............................1 ............................$41,11155.............. Van Damme ............................Robert Gorham ........................1 ............................$31,790 .................+Rare Candy ...........................David Hofmans ........................1 ............................$30,25056..............Conquest Big E .......................Mark Casse ..............................1 ............................$29,325 .................+Sticksstatelydude .................Greg Burchell ...........................1 ............................$25,00057..............Urlacher ..................................Eoin Harty ................................1 ............................$21,000 .................+San Dimas ............................Eoin Harty ................................1 ............................$12,00058.............. Luna de Loco ..........................Steve Asmussen ......................1 ..............................$8,61159..............Conquest Windycity ................Mark Casse ..............................1 ..............................$7,050

Kentucky Derby 2016 Point Standings (through March 23)

NON-RESTRICTEDRANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS

NON-RESTRICTEDRANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS

+ - not nominated to Triple Crown