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Depopulation in Romanian rural areas
Key drivers and territorial footprint
// Alina HUZUI-STOICULESCU//Ministry of Regional Development and Public Administration
2 5/24/2018
Rural depopulation in Romania
which are the drivers of rural demographic change?
which are the specific demographic characteristics at different territorial
levels?
which are the ways for improving the situation of the rural population??
Baseline situation.
Shrinking rural regions within their national context
5/24/20183 Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
4
Romania is part of a severe
shrinkage phenomenon in
Central and Eastern
Europe.
The working age population
group entered a downward
spiral, while the elderly
population increases.
Source: ESPON (2017) Policy Brief:
Shrinking rural regions in Europe
Main rural population changes in Romania, 2014-2020 (in thousand people)
5 5/24/2018
Further strains on government revenues derived from income taxes
Increasing demand for healthcare and elderly care services.
Age-groups Years Change 2014-2020
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0-14 3.133 3.127 3.117 3.116 3.117 3.113 3.110 -24
15-19 1.093 1.088 1.092 1.090 1.081 1.071 1.061 -32
20-64 12.464 12.368 12.270 12.174 12.083 12.002 11.907 -557
65+ 3.297 3.381 3.457 3.524 3.592 3.656 3.733 436
Total 19.987 19.964 19.936 19.904 19.873 19.842 19.811 -177
Data provided by the National Institute for Statistics
Ministry of Labor Family, Social Protection and Elderly (2016), National
Strategy on Social Inclusion and Poverty Reduction 2015-2020
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
6
Rural profile
the rural population has been constantly decreasing
the rural population growth rate has had increasingly
large negative values since 1990
the rural population has experienced a strong ageing process
the main drivers of population decline are the negative natural growth rate and
migration
7
The 2011 Census:
- 3,172 villages with fewer
than 200 inhabitants
- 3.4% of the total rural
population (nearly 312,000
people) lives in small
villages
Most of these small villages
are:
- peripheral within their
communes (sometimes
situated many kilometers
away from the central
village)
- have elderly populations
Rural areas in Romania are organized into 2,861 communes (administrative units)
that include 12,373 villages, comprising 46% of the total population
Data source: Population Census 2002
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
8
The 2011 Census:
- 3,172 villages with fewer
than 200 inhabitants
- 3.4% of the total rural
population (nearly 312,000
people) lives in small
villages
Most of these small villages
are:
- peripheral within their
communes (sometimes
situated many kilometers
away from the central
village)
- have elderly populations
Humancapital
Natural capital
Economic activities
Public utilitiesand
infrastructure
Socio-Economic Development Index - 2015
Source: Ministry of Agriculture (2015), Study on the Socio-
Economic Potential of Rural AreasFighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
9 5/24/2018
- Steady downward trend
in the number of people
(0.8 million inhabitants
in the period 1992-
2011)
- Population decline:
urban areas: -6.1% (1992-2002); -6.7% (2002-2011)
rural areas: -2.1% (1992-2002); -9.1% (2002-2011)
- Migration from rural to
urban areas decreased
from 50% in 1992 to
20% in 2011
Data source: Population Censuses 1992, 2002, 2011
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
10 5/24/2018
- The cumulative internal
migration flows, by source
and destination at the 2002
and 2011 censuses
- Urban-rural migration from
10% in 1992 to 30% in
2011
- Higher concentration of
rural population in the peri-
urban and suburban areas
Deindustrialization Return migration SuburbanizationTemporary migration
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
Natural decline and migration drive long-term shrinkage
5/24/201811
2
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
12
- Low fertility rates and
profund ageing in
deep rural areas
(Apuseni and Banat
Mountains, part of
Southern Romania
and Danube Delta)
- On this background, the
emigration of many
young people has the
potential to speed up
population ageing
Data source: Population Census 2011
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
13 5/24/2018
Negative natural growth rate values
in areas with:
1) low accessibility and low
economic development level
2) deep ruralism
3) strong industrial decline
Types of villages according to the
migration experience:
- high migration experience
- moderate migration experience
- relative imobility
Data source: Population Censuses 2002, 2011
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
Local Action Groups in Romania as an instrument of community development
5/24/201814
3
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
Build on place-specific characteristics could improve the performance of
development policies
15 5/24/2018
Area-based and people-based
interventions must be integrated
in a framework of participative
community development in order
to fight rural decline effectively.
Rate of participation in LAGs:
- 54% small (<2.000 inhab.)
and remote communes
- 63% small non-remote
communes
- 69% remote communes with
>2,000 inhab.
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
16 5/24/2018
The strategy focused on a
participatory model in creating
jobs for the inhabitants from
Țara Zarandului
Unemployment is high
considering that most locals
used to work for coal mining
companies which are now
closed.
Case study - “Țara Zarandului” Local Action Group
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 MayData source: Population Censuses 2002, 2011
The 17th CEMAT session addressed the issue of Functional areas –
capitalisation of local potential in territorial development policies over the
European continent.
17 5/24/2018
a study on functional areas, including a questionnaire that was filled by 25 Member
States of the Council of Europe.
specific spatial development conditions require a place-based cooperation models.
unlock the potential of functional areas and call upon other relevant actors to promote
such measures as well.
Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May
Identifying and defining functional
areas
Identifying and using endogenous
potential
Providing support for the development of functional areas
Ensuring Territorial Governance based on cooperation and
democratic principles
// Thank youAlina HUZUI-STOICULESCU, Ministry of Regional Development and Public Administration,
Romania
This presentation will be made available at: www.espon.eu/xxx