Department of Infrastructure and Planning

Population trends and future prospects for Queensland communitiesAlison Taylor

Independent Schools Queensland 2009 state conference

Friday28th August 2009

Outline

•Recent trends in • population growth • births • deaths and • migration.

•Future prospects• Where is the population growth likely to be?• Ageing of the population

•How will Queensland’s future growth impact on the demand for school facilities?

Australia’s population growth surges…years ending December

0

100

200

300

400

500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

('000s)

Natural increase Net overseas migration

Natural increase up 37,000

NOM up 143,000 (accounting for 80% of additional growth)

Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat. No. 3101.0

Two-thirds of Australia’s population growth is in the 3 big statesaverage annual change, years ending December

Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat. No. 3105.0 and 3101.0

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

NSW Vic. Qld WA Bal. of Aus

1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008

10.2%

1.0%

7.4%

24.8%

20.1%

32.5%

2.3%

1.6%

SEQ*

13.8%

Victoria

ACT

New SouthWales

Tasmania

Queensland

Northern Territory

South Australia

Western Australia

Australia’s population distribution, by state and territory as at December 2008

Source: ABS CAT No 3101.0

2.2m

0.2m

1.6m

5.4m 0.5

m

0.3m

3.0m

4.3m

7.0m

*SEQ at June 2008

Net overseas migration is the main contributor to growthyear to December 2008

Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat No.3101.0

-40,000

-20,000

00,000

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

NSW VIC QLD WA Bal of Aus.

Natural Increase Overseas Migration Interstate Migration

Births, Queensland, 1901-2008

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

Baby boom

Baby boom echo

Record no. of births(63,131)

Source: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3301.0 Births Australia, various editions

2008 was also a record year for births at the national level

Longer term patterns of fertility, Australia and Queensland

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Bir

ths p

er

wo

man

Australia Queensland Replacement level

Source: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3301.0 Births Australia, various editions

End of WWII

Fertility peaked at 3.5 in 1961 Contraceptive

pill becomes freely available

Below replacement fertility for last 30 years

Baby boom

Great Depression

The impact of the pill in Australia…

The oral contraceptive pill was released in Australia in 1961 and for a time Doctors would only prescribe it for married women. By the mid-1970s however, the pill had become the most widely used method of contraception in Australia and Australian women were the highest users in the world. (Taking precautions: the story of contraception, Powerhouse Museum Sydney).

Life boils down to 2 questions…

Should I get a dog?

Or should I have children?

Deaths, Queensland, 1859-2008

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1859

1867

1875

1883

1891

1899

1907

1915

1923

1931

1939

1947

1955

1963

1971

1979

1987

1995

2003

Source: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3302.0 Deaths Australia, various editions

Life expectancy at birth, Queensland•1881-1890 males – 47.2 females - 50.9 (Australia)

•1920-1922 males – 59.2 females – 63.3 (Australia)

•1946-1948 males – 66.1 females – 70.6 (Australia)

•1971 males – 67.8 females – 74.7

•1991 males – 74.4 females – 80.5

•2001 males – 76.9 females – 82.3

•2006 males – 78.5 females – 83.4

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Male

FemaleSource: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3302.0 Deaths Australia, various editions

Life expectancy at selected ages

•At 25 years of age – male 54.9 years, female 59.3 years

•At 45 years of age – male 36.0 years, female 39.7 years

•At 50 years of age – male 31.4 years, female 35.2 years

•At 65 years of age – male 18.5 years, female 21.6 years

Source: ABS Cat no. 3302.0 Deaths Australia, 2007

Net overseas migration, Queenslandyears ending December

Source: ABS Cat no. 3101.0, various editions

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

QLD Net Overseas % Australia

Top 10 birthplace countries for settler arrivalsYear to June 2008

Rank Country of Birth Persons Per cent

1 New Zealand 13,009 40.0%

2 United Kingdom 5,954 18.3%

3 South Africa 1,570 4.8%

4 India 1,228 3.8%

5 Philippines 1,070 3.3%

6 China (Excl. SAR & Taiwan) 846 2.6%

7 Malaysia 500 1.5%

8 Korea 425 1.3%

9 Fiji 420 1.3%

10 Thailand 380 1.2%

Subtotal 25,402 78.2%

Total 32,496 100.0%

Source: Overseas migration to Queensland 2009, PIFU, July 2009

Net interstate migration, Queensland years ending December

Source: ABS Cat no. 3101.0, various editions

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Changing age distribution of net interstate migration, Queenslandyears ending June

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

(Th

ou

sa

nd

Pe

rso

ns)

2000 2008

Source: ABS Cat no. 3412.0, various editions

Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0

Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)

Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)

Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)

Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)

Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)

Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)

Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)

Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)

Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)

Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)

AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGION

South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)

East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)

Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)

Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)

4,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 200894,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual Change Change Change Change Change Change Change Change Change

971,793971,793971,793971,793971,793971,793971,793971,793971,793

73,29373,29373,29373,29373,29373,29373,29373,29373,293

402,941402,941402,941402,941402,941402,941402,941402,941402,941

2,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,02960,73160,73160,73160,73160,73160,73160,73160,73160,731

5,4325,4325,4325,4325,4325,4325,4325,4325,432

-372-372-372-372-372-372-372-372-372

22,44622,44622,44622,44622,44622,44622,44622,44622,446

(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary EstimateRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census data

Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:

10 fastest growing LGAs in Queenslandaverage annual growth, 2001-2006 and 2007-2008

Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0

NB: Excludes Indigenous councils.

    2001-2006 2007-2008

Rank LGA No. % No. %

1 Ipswich (C) 3,405 2.2% 6,104 4.1%

2 Cairns (R) 3,889 2.5% 5,985 3.9%

3 Moreton Bay (R) 9,266 2.6% 11,831 3.4%

4 Fraser Coast (R) 3,009 3.1% 3,124 3.4%

5 Gladstone (R) 1,514 2.6% 1,871 3.4%

6 Lockyer Valley (R) 653 1.9% 1,073 3.3%

7 Whitsunday (R) 685 2.1% 997 3.1%

8 Townsville (C) 4,098 2.3% 5,134 3.0%

9 Sunshine Coast (R) 9,583 3.1% 8,734 2.9%

10 Gold Coast (C) 15,866 3.2% 13,210 2.7%

10 largest growing LGAs in Queenslandaverage annual growth, 2001-2006 and 2007-2008

Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0

NB: Excludes Indigenous councils.

    2001-2006 2007-2008

Rank LGA No. % No. %

1 Brisbane (C) 18,922 1.9% 17,368 1.7%

2 Gold Coast (C) 15,866 3.4% 13,210 2.7%

3 Moreton Bay (R) 9,266 2.8% 11,831 3.4%

4 Sunshine Coast (R) 9,583 3.2% 8,734 2.9%

5 Ipswich (C) 3,405 2.4% 6,104 4.1%

6 Cairns (R) 3,889 2.6% 5,985 3.9%

7 Logan (C) 4,557 1.8% 5,225 2.0%

8 Townsville (C) 4,098 2.5% 5,134 3.0%

9 Fraser Coast (R) 3,009 3.4% 3,124 3.4%

10 Redland (C) 2,792 2.1% 2,876 2.1%

10 largest growing LGAs in Regional QueenslandAverage annual growth, 2001-2006, 2007-2008

Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0.

2001-2006 2007-2008

Rank LGA No. % No. %

1 Cairns (RC) 3,889 3.0 5,985 3.9

2 Townsville (C) 4,098 2.8 5,134 3.0

3 Fraser Coast (RC) 2,968 4.0 3,124 3.4

4 Mackay (RC) 3,250 3.6 2,650 2.4

5 Bundaberg (RC) 1,791 2.2 2,039 2.3

6 Gladstone (RC) 1,514 3.3 1,871 3.4

7 Toowoomba (RC) 2,741 1.8 1,657 1.1

8 Rockhampton (RC) 1,858 1.9 1,412 1.3

9 Gympie (RC) 1,115 2.9 1,084 2.4

10 Whitsunday (RC) 685 2.5 997 3.1

Three series of population projections are produced

•Low, medium and high series are produced

•These reflect more or less optimistic assumptions leading to a lower projected population in the low series and a higher projection in the high series

•We encourage use of a range (between the low and high outcomes), rather than a single number, to reflect variability

•Other outcomes may eventuate if any of the assumptions diverge from what has been assumed

Actual & projected population, Queensland1976 to 2056

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2056

Mill

ion

pe

rso

ns

Actual Projected

High

Medium

Low

4.1m in 2006

Between 5.5m - 6.4m

at 2026

Between 7m - 10m at 2056

Source: ABS Cat No 3311.3 & Department of Infrastructure and Planning population

projections, 2008 ed.

Key facts

• 4.1m in 2006, 5.9m in 20 years and 8m in 50 years if resemble the medium series

• Higher growth in next 20 years (1.8m) than last 20 (1.5m)• Highest growth projected in the short term –

95,000pa till 2016

1 million 1938

2 million 1974

3 million 1992

4 million 2006

5 million 2016

6 million 2028

7 million 2042

8 million 2057

Population milestones

Sources: ABS Cat No 3311.3 & Qld Government Population Projections, 2008 edition

Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)

Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)

Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)

Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)

Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)

Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)

Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)

Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)

Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)

Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)

Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)

Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)

Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)

Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)

Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)

Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)

Average Annual Population ChangeBy LGA, 2006-2031. Medium Series 2008 Ed.

10,000 to 12,900 (2)5,000 to 10,000 (4)1,000 to 5,000 (11)

100 to 1,000 (11)0 to 100 (22)

-100 to 0 (10)N/A (15)

Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)

Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)

Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)

Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)

Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)

Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)

Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)

Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)

Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)

Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold

Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)

Inset

225 0 225 450

Kilometres

Inset

10 largest growing LGAs in Queenslandprojected average annual growth, 2006-2031

Population Average annual population change

Rank LGA 2006 2031 No. %

1 Gold Coast (C) 466,433 788,231 12,872 2.1

2 Ipswich (C) 142,400 434,788 11,696 4.6

3 Brisbane (C) 991,260 1,220,543 9,171 0.8

4 Sunshine Coast (R) 295,084 501,179 8,244 2.1

5 Moreton Bay (R) 332,862 523,037 7,607 1.8

6 Logan (C) 260,081 425,918 6,633 2.0

7 Townsville (C) 165,278 270,500 4,209 2.0

8 Toowoomba (R) 151,297 228,461 3,087 1.7

9 Cairns (R) 147,538 222,640 3,004 1.7

10 Mackay (R) 107,332 172,993 2,626 1.9

Source: DIP Population Projections 2008 ed. medium series

South East Queensland*

•2.77m people in 2007•Growth last 25 years (1981-2006) =

1.34m• Average 1981-2006 - 53,700 each year

• Average 2001-2006 - 66,340 each year

•Projected growth next 25 years (2006-2031) = 1.60m to reach 4.43m

• Average 2006-2031 - 64,100 each year

• Average 2006-2011 – 66,850 each year

* SEQ Region including Toowoomba Statistical District

South East Queensland - outlook

•Prospects are for strong growth to continue •Migration will continue to be the main driver of growth - overseas•Main cities – Brisbane, Gold Coast, (Moreton Bay), Sunshine Coast•Growth will be split between

• major greenfield areas of Ipswich, Logan and West Moreton

• Brisbane inner city infill and redevelopment

• coastal cities of Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast

• TODs and other centres or nodes

•Population will continue to cluster along the coast although policy, affordability and planned infrastructure provision will favour the west

Eastern Regional Queensland

•1.34m people in 2007

•Growth last 25 years (1981-2006) = 451,500• 1981-2006 – average of 18,000 each year• 2001-2006 – average of 26,700 each year

•Projected growth next 25 years (2006-2031) = 614,300 to reach 1.93m

• 2006-2031 – average of 24,575 each year

Eastern Regional Queensland - outlook

•Strong relative advantages•Impact of ongoing resource activity

• Resident workers

• Expansion of businesses to service industry

•Strong industrial, educational and tourism sectors lead to job creation and continuing migration prospects

•Lifestyle destinations will continue to attract people•Future population will concentrate even further into key regional

cities and major towns and these will account for most of the growth•Smaller communities (ageing, rationalisation of agricultural

workforce, increased contracting) to have small declines

Western Regional Queensland

•74,876 people in 2007•Decline last 25 years (1981-2006) =

10,000• 1981-2006 average of -400 each year

• 2001-2006 average of -520 each year

•Projected growth next 25 years (2006-2031) = 6,900 to reach 78,095

• 2006-2031 – average of 275 each year

• Past decades 10 yrs to 1991 -238, 10 yrs to 2001 -603

• Future decades 10 yrs to 2011 will be 93, 10 yrs to 2021 will be 17

What’s going to be different in the future?

1. Population ageing 2. Changing household structure

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000

1986 2006 2026

Queensland age by sex, 1986, 2006, 2026

Source: ABS, Cat. No. 3201.0 & Department of Infrastructure and Planning population projections, 2008 edition, Medium series

Males Females

ERP Totals

1986 – 2,624,595

2006 – 4,091,412

2026 – 5,884,390

Population change by broad age groups, QLDdecades ending

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2016 2026 2036 2046 2056

0-14 15-44 45-64 65-84 85+

Source: ABS, Department of Infrastructure and Planning population projections, 2008 edition, Medium Series

Projected changes to Queensland’s age structure

Of the projected increase of 2.2m people over the next 25 years

• 36% (or 781,000 people) will be 65 and over

• 24% (or 519,500 people) will be between 45 and 64 years

• 20% (or 428,000 people) will be between 25 and 44 years

• 12% (or 275,250 people will be less than 15 years

• 8% (or 178,430 people) will be between 15 and 24 years

13%

8%

20%

24%

35%

0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65 and over

Households with and without children, Queensland, 2006-2031

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Ho

useh

old

s

Households with children Households without children

Source: PIFU Projections of households, dwellings and living arrangements, 2009 edition

Past and projected change to SEQ age structure

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+

10 years to 2001 10 years to 2011 10 years to 2021 10 years to 2031

Past and projected change to Eastern Regional Queensland age structure

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+

10 years to 2001 10 years to 2011 10 years to 2021 10 years to 2031

Past and projected change to Western Regional Queensland age structure

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+

10 years to 2001 10 years to 2011 10 years to 2021 10 years to 2031

Fastest growing areas projected school age population (5-14)

  Growth 2006 to 2011 Absolute Growth

Gold Coast City 2.2% 6,477

Ipswich City 1.9% 2,170

Isaac Regional Council 1.8% 316

Gladstone Regional Council 1.7% 776

Townsville City Council 1.4% 1,770

(LGAs excluded where growth over the 5 years is less than 100 persons)

  Growth 2011 to 2016 Absolute Growth

Ipswich City 4.6% 6,303

Scenic Rim Regional Council 4.0% 1,196

Isaac Regional Council 3.6% 714

Gold Coast City 2.2% 7,432

Townsville City 2.2% 2,972

(LGAs excluded where growth over the 5 years is less than 100 persons)

Source Data: Qld Government Population Projections, 2008 edition

Largest growing areas projected school age population (5-14)

  Absolute Change 2006 to 2011

Gold Coast City Council 6,477

Brisbane City Council 5,300

Sunshine Coast Regional Council 2,640

Moreton Bay Regional Council 2,578

Ipswich City Council 2,170

  Absolute Change 2011 to 2016

Brisbane City Council 8,093

Gold Coast City Council 7,432

Ipswich City Council 6,303

Moreton Bay Regional Council 4,409

Sunshine Coast Regional Council 4,192

Source Data: Qld Government Population Projections, 2008 edition

Summary

•Most of the future growth will be focused in the south east corner -particularly along the coast and in Ipswich

•Regional cities, also mostly along the coast except for Toowoomba, will also have continuing strong growth

•Smaller towns and localities, on or near the coast, adjacent to a larger centre or seen as lifestyle destinations, will grow

•Smaller centres inland or in western Queensland will have either stable populations or small declines

•Exceptions are locations near to resource development activity – if the associated workforce chooses to live locally

Queensland’s future population will be very different to the current one

•Size – will be much larger (2031 population will be 1.4 – 1.7 times larger than in 2006)

•Distribution – increasing concentration in SEQ but pace will slow as regional cities are the location of more growth than in past years. Western Queensland will continue to lose population but more slowly than in the past.

•Composition – ageing, ageing, ageing– Under 45 years 40% of growth– 45 years or more (60% of growth (one in three new people will be

aged 65 years or more)– More overseas born

Implications for the provision of school facilities

•School aged population to grow• Some areas will grow faster than others

• South East Queensland areas will record the largest amount of growth

•Projections are based on a set of assumptions• If people’s behaviour or influencing factors change, then the

assumptions may change altering the projection outcome

•Most growth will be in the older age groups• May be increased competition for resources

• More emphasis on flexibility and adaptability of facilities