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REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES
DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENTErwin D. Sta. Ana
Deputy Treasurer of the Philippines
THE PHILIPPINE CASE
How does the Philippine National
Government manage its debt?
AN INTER-AGENCY EFFORT
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
• Mandated to recommend to the President the level of debt service on
top of the general expenditure program, economic and social
development, and national defense
• Major functions of DBCC:
• Assessment of reliability of revenue estimates
• Recommendations of appropriate tax, revenue measures, and
type of borrowings
• Conduct of periodic review and examination of costs
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
• Mandate: To efficiently and effectively manage
the financial resources of the government by
maximizing revenues from available funds and
minimizing costs of financing whenever possible.
• Objectives
• Meeting the financing requirement of the
National Government
• Development of the domestic capital
markets
• Address the current thin foreign
participation in the local debt market
• Efficient pricing of government and
corporate securities
WHERE WE ARE NOW
Favorable debt metrics from sound fiscal
policy and prudent debt management strategy
DOMESTIC VS. EXTERNAL DEBT
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Domestic External
• 65% of NG debt portfolio is from domestic sources.
EXTERNAL DEBT BY CURRENCY (2016)
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
• Majority of external debt is denominated in US dollar, followed by
Japanese yen and Philippine peso .
77.1%
14.0%
1.4% 6.0% 1.5%
US Dollar Japanese Yen Euro Philippine Peso Other Currencies
DEBT BY MATURITY
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
• Debt portfolio is predominantly composed of long-term debt.
• As of end-2016, 83.7% of the total NG debt are in long-term tenors.
-
750,000
1,500,000
2,250,000
3,000,000
3,750,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Long-Term Medium-Term Short-Term
83.7%
9.0%
7.3%
Long-Term Medium-Term Short-Term
DEBT-TO-GDP RATIOS
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
• Both NG debt-to-GDP and GG debt-to-GDP have steadily declined, at 40.6% and 32.6%
as of Q1 2017 respectively.
• Philippine NG debt-to-GDP ratio is well below ASEAN average of 52.9%.
• GG debt-to-GDP is down from a high of 68.0% in 2003.
• Indicator that NG has ample legroom for future borrowings.
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GG Debt-to-GDP NG Debt-to-GDP
CONTINUOUS PATH OF PROGRESS
Landmark transactions made to unlock
innovative sources of financing
TIMELINE: HIGHLIGHTS
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
First USD bond issuance1990
First JPY bond issuance1996
First EUR bond issuance1999
Regular global bond issuance1999-2008
First global peso note issuance2011
Investment grade rating2013
First one-day switch tender offer2015
Lowest coupon by ROP at 3.7% for 25-year debt2016
DECREASING CDS SPREAD
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
• The country’s CDS spread currently stands at 113.770, lower than most
ASEAN peers.
• Historical low CDS spread affirms a lower-risk environment for the country,
leading to higher inflows to domestic debt markets .
0
150
300
450
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
INVESTMENT GRADE RATING
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
• Starting 2011, the Philippines has undergone 24 positive credit rating actions
from major rating agencies.
• Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P have all maintained the country’s investment grade
rating this year (Moody’s and S&P: stable outlook; Fitch: positive outlook)
28-May-05 10-Oct-06 22-Feb-08 06-Jul-09 18-Nov-10 01-Apr-12 14-Aug-13 27-Dec-14 10-May-16
Fitch Moody's S&P Investment grade
Current credit rating
Moody’s Baa2 stable
S&P: BBB positive
Fitch: BBB- stable
DEBT AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Constant effort to proactively
manage NG debt portfolio
MINIMIZING FX RISK
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
58.08% 59.59%65.42% 67.50% 68.38% 67.02% 66.32% 67.07% 67.68% 69.16% 70.89% 72.72% 73.84%
41.92% 40.41%34.58% 32.50% 31.62% 32.98% 33.68% 32.93% 32.32% 30.84% 29.11% 27.28% 26.16%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
PHP FXC
IMPROVING BORROWING COSTS
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Average Interest Rates
External 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% 4.54%
Domestic 6.8% 6.5% 5.8% 5.7% 5.5% 5.24%
Total 6.0% 5.9% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 4.99%
5.16 5.01 4.96 5.06 4.904.67
4.54
7.096.84
6.47
5.78 5.695.46
5.24
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
External Domestic
MITIGATING INTEREST RATE RISK
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
93.39% 92.87% 93.46% 94.28% 93.16% 91.97% 91.36%
6.61% 7.13% 6.54% 5.72% 6.84% 8.03% 8.64%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Fixed Floating
ABILITY TO SERVICE DEBT
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
31.7%23.6% 22.6% 24.8% 24.4%
20.5% 20.4% 18.8% 16.8% 14.7% 13.8% 13.8% 12.9% 12.8% 12.4% 12.0% 11.7%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
IP/Revenue
Revenues allocated for interest service have declined steadily
29.7%23.3% 21.4% 19.6% 19.3% 17.9% 17.6% 17.2% 16.2% 13.9% 12.0% 11.5% 10.8% 10.7% 10.4% 10.1% 9.9%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
IP/Expenditure
Freeing fiscal space for productive spending
MATURITIES HAVE LENGTHENED
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jul 2017
Average Residual Maturity (Years)
External 10.96 10.89 11.13 11.86 12.17 12.35
Domestic 10.44 9.57 9.20 9.16 8.73 8.21
Total 10.87 10.03 9.90 10.04 10.05 10.02
43.65%31.53%
26.27%
22.33%
30.08%
46.15%
2010 2016
11 yearsonwards
6 to 10 years
Maturing inthe next 5years
WORKING TOWARD SUSTAINABILITY
Ensuring that NG debt portfolio
is sustainable in the long-run
TAX REFORM AND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
36.00%
38.00%
40.00%
42.00%
44.00%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Approved House Bill (HB 5636 with additional revenue of P133.8B)/1
Without CTRP /1
BORROWING PROGRAM
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
Particulars, in Million Pesos Actual 2016 Program 2017 Actual 1H 2017 Program 2018
GROSS FOREIGN BORROWINGS 149,253 182,770 139,209 176,269
Program Loans 35,598 42,470 18,011 84,214
Project Loans 18,789 30,300 21,632 41,055
Bonds and Other Inflows 95,136 110,000 99,566 51,000
Less: Amortization 173,636 139,600 111,054 61,923
NET FOREIGN BORROWINGS (24,113) 43,170 28,155 114,346
GROSS DOMESTIC BORROWINGS 357,497 544,969 366,551 711,958
Treasury Bills 23,501 54,969 29,879 71,958
Gross Flotation 215,520 327,332 147,332 500,000
Maturities 192,019 272,363 117,453 428,042
Fixed Rate Treasury Bonds 333,996 490,000 154,820 640,000
Less: Net Amortization 2,445 3,359 870 5,030
NET DOMESTIC BORROWINGS 355,052 541,610 365,681 706,928
NET FINANCING 330,939 584,780 393,836 821,274
GROSS BORROWINGS 507,020 727,739 505,760 888,227
FINANCING MIX
(DOMESTIC : EXTERNAL)71: 29 75 : 25 78 : 22 80 : 20
CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
Repo
Primary Dealer System
nRoss
Benchmark Reevaluation
Alternative Financing
Asset Registry
CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
CONSOLIDATION OF ISSUANCE
•Reduction in number of outstanding ISINs
•Increased trading volume and liquidity
•Reduced yield curve distortion
INTRODUCTION OF INNOVATIVE INSTRUMENTS
• Diversify investor base and provide alternative instruments to investors
PRIMARY DEALERSHIP PROGRAM
•Enhance the primary market
•Clear obligations and privileges of GSEDs
•Performance-based criteria
•Obligations to market-make
REPO PROGRAM
•Allow GS Dealers to market make
•Improve liquidity in the GS market and stabilize the yield curve
•Operations Manual and Standard Procedure for Repo Agreement
•Provide two-way quotes and encourage price discovery
THANK YOU!
REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES
DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE
BUREAU OF THE TREASURY
PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENTErwin D. Sta. Ana
Deputy Treasurer of the Philippines