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DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Biofuels and Climate Change
Biofuelwatch
www.biofuelwatch.org.uk
introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Summary• Climate Change background -
urgency to avoid catastropic climate change
• Public policy debate has been sidelined
• Certification = no viable answer• Agrofuels / biofuels are accelerating
climate change• Descending the transport emissions
curve - Demand reduction is key
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Emission sources• Deforestation, agriculture and peat• Anthropogenic energy
From Stern
Report
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Arctic 2007 Summer Ice Melt
Non-linear effect?
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Descending the fossil emissions curve - Demand reduction is key
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1990 2000 2010 2020
Biofuels being sold at this level – BUT IS THE OPPOSITE
TRUE?
Energy efficiency and energy reduction
Carbon management – use less carbon
Decarbonise – switch from carbon completely
Current EU energy policy
90% carbon emission reduction needed
URGENTLY!
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
US / EU Biofuel Policy – going off the graph
EU – 10% by 2020 (1% now)
2010 2020
US – 20% by 2020 (4% now)
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Agrofuels – no public policy debate
• Even current 1% EU penetration has taken us into ‘downstream’ phase of implementation
• Yet, there has been no consistent or complete scientific and policy scrutiny
• Bypassed by Governments and industry
• Public policy debate is urgently needed – moratorium is needed to facilitate this
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Certification context• Governments’
response to no public policy debate is to develop ‘certification schemes’ or ‘sustainability criteria’
• Calls for international scheme (UK Govt., Ford etc)
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Certification schemes• Greenhouse gas (GHG) balances
– URGENT need for full lifecycle, whole system (macro) carbon balance studies
• Direct and indirect environmental impacts:Deforestation, loss of habitats / biodiversity,
water depletion, soil erosion, chemicals
• Direct and indirect social impacts:Poverty, land conflicts, human rights, labour,
food security and sovereignty
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Sustainability criteria• Driven by interests of industry and
government• Displacement / leakage not handled
– Existing agriculture displaced by agrofuels moves into new areas
• Macro impacts through commodity price shifts not handled– Amazon deforestation ←→ soy price
• US Corn for ethanol displaces US soy => soy price
– EU oilseed rape use causes palm oil prices causes palm oil expansion
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Do Agrofuels save emissions?• Agrofuel infrastructure is built on
Fossil Fuel infrastructure– Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based –
fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon emissions
– Feedstock transport, shipping, ports– Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ;
process chemicals
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
N20 needs further study• microbes convert N fertiliser to N2O
– NEW STUDY by Nobel prizewinner Paul Crutzen, August 2007 : 3 to 5 per cent = twice the widely accepted figure of 2 per cent used by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
• oilseed rape biodiesel, for example, is up to 70% worse for the climate than fossil fuel diesel (also corn ethanol)
• UK and EU Biofuels policy and certification schemes in scientific doubt
• N2O emissions – chemical fertilizer impact greater in tropics
• Both EU home grown biofuels and tropical imports
Massive destruction beyond N2O - Agrofuels are
accelerating climate change
Deforestation for oil palms, Colombia
Fires to clear land for palm oil, KalimantanPhoto by Nordin, Save our Borneo
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Peat drainage and destructionDrainage • Dry peat - oxidises and, over time, emits
all its carbon as CO2. 42-50 billion tonnes of carbon stored in those SE Asian peatlands.
Fires • Many set by plantation companies, greatly
accelerate the loss of carbon.
• Of the 27.1 million hectares of peatland in South-east Asia, 12 million hectares are deforested and mostly drained.
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Agrofuels as a new driver of peatland destruction
Indonesia plans 20 million hectares new oil palm plantations to meet biodiesel demand.
$17.4 billion investment deals in Indonesian palm oil agreed this year.
According to 2006 FAO report, growth in European rapeseed oil biodiesel has significantly pushed up global palm oil prices.
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Deforestation• “with partial deforestation the entire
landscape could become drier and a domino effect could occur producing a ‘tipping point’ affecting the whole forest”.
Conclusion of recent scientific conference
• Amazon drying out – die-back threat increasing - 120 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Amazon Deforestation and Drought
Deforestation in Novo Progreso, Brazil ; Alberto Cesar/Greenpeace/AP
Amazon drought 2005, Lake Rei
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Massive land-use change in global South, and crop commodity traffic
Massive emission exports from industralised nations to global South
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Emission trickery
Exporting emissions from Northern
transport to Southern agriculture and
landuse
NB: Soil + Peat not included
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1990 2000 2010 2020
Reduce vehicle emissions by 50%
- smaller, more efficient vehicles
Reduce journeys – planning, modal shift, decouple transport
from economy
Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids
Change Supply - Concentrating Solar
Power ?
Current EU energy policy
90% carbon emission reduction needed
URGENTLY!
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
The Climate Context• 1st generation biofuels
– Scientific doubt on N20 for all fuel supply chains including EU oilseed rape
– Already a climate disaster• Eg Indonesian peat lands• Deforestation tropics• Yet mass-scale infrastructure and investment
ready for• 2nd generation biofuels
– 15-20 years to develop– BUT emissions must be cut now– Biohazards (even now in R&D)– Deforestation boreal and temporate
Transport sector DEMAND REDUCTION
We are currently in ‘first generation’ world – there is a
gap to any viable second generation – ‘first generation’ problems must be addressed
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Networking• What factsheets, lobbying support would be useful for
your organisation?
• immediate moratorium call on EU incentives for agrofuels, EU imports of agrofuels and EU agroenergy monocultures. http://www.econexus.info/biofuels.html
• Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a blank email to [email protected]
• www.biofuelwatch.org.uk
• Email us at [email protected] if you would like to get more involved in the campaign.
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
DenmarkSeptember 2007
Biofuels and Climate Change
Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers• Government and corporate subsidy and
promotion• Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms
– Year-on-year economic growth– Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics
• Short term “energy security” fix– Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq– Stabilising Oil price?– EU / US “Oil independence”
• New global mega-industry and infrastructure– agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors – refining, tankage and shipping sectors – commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn)