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Den teknologiske singularitet
Klaus Æ. Mogensen
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
“The ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue”
John von Neumann, 1950s
Matematisk singularitet
I morgen, singulariteten
“Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended”
“The Coming Technological
Singularity” Vernor Vinge, 1993
Ikke alle er enige…
“A Singularity has no business model, no major power group in our society is interested in provoking one, nobody who matters sees any reason to create one, there's no there there.”
Bruce Sterling (2013): “‘The Singularity’:
There's No There There”
Hurtigere computere Beregninger per sekund for $1000
Hjerne-computer interface
Kvantecomputere
Human Brain Project
Design via evolution
En tidsalder med uendelige muligheder
There’s no there there!
It will happen before 2030!
To ekstreme scenarier for 2030
Business As Usual
• Gradvis teknologisk udvikling
• Ingen større forandringer
• “Nutiden + 10 %”
• Let at planlægge efter
Singulariten
• Ekstreme teknologiske fremskridt
• Store omvæltninger i samfundet
• Uendelige muligheder
• Umulig at planlægge efter
Hvem arbejder for singulariteten?
“Singularity University is a benefit corporation that provides educational programs, innovative partnerships and a startup accelerator to help individuals, businesses, institutions, investors, NGOs and governments understand cutting-edge technologies, and how to utilize these technologies to positively impact billions of people. Our mission is to educate, inspire and empower leaders to apply exponential technologies to address humanity's grand challenges.”
Roko’s Basilisk
slate.me/Ueqdfo
På vej mod singulariteten
Bedre robotter
Baxter, en fleksibel robot til $25,000
Halvdelen af nuværende jobs kan være automati-serede om 20 år.
Kilde: Oxford Martin School of Economics
Centrale spørgsmål:
1. Vil nye jobs blive skabt i samme tempo som gamle jobs bliver automatiseret, eller vil vi se voksende arbejdsløshed?
2. Vil flertallet få glæde af den økonomiske vækst som automatiseringen skaber, eller kun en lille elite?
Scenarier for robotrevolutionen
Nye jobs Arbejdsløshed
Po
lariserin
g
Væ
kst fo
r alle
RISE OF THE PRECARIAT
SUPERSTAR ECONOMY
CREATIVE SOCIETY
ROBOT UTOPIA?
Rise of the Precariat
Creative Society
Superstar Economy
Robot Utopia?
Aladdin-syndromet
Transhumanisme
bit.ly/1hF6Vpe
SCENARIO Magazine
Scenariomagazine.com
