Demography Informs Destiny! The Case of Greater · PDF fileDemography Informs Destiny! The Case of Greater Boston Dukakis Center for Urban & Regional Policy . Northeastern University

Demography Informs Destiny! The Case of Greater Boston

Dukakis Center for Urban & Regional Policy Northeastern University School of Public Policy & Urban Affairs www.northeastern.edu/dukakiscenter

A “Think and Do” Tank

Barry Bluestone, Director

New England Economic Partnership Fall Economic Outlook Conference

Boston Federal Reserve Bank November 14, 2013

Dukakis Center for Urban & Regional Policy www.northeastern.edu/dukakiscenter

281,421,906

295,507,134

308,935,581

321,363,000

333,896,000

346,407,000

358,471,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Projected Population 2000-2030

United States

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

3.7% 3.5%

Between 2015 and 2030, projected population growth: 37.1 million


65,873,000

43,439,000

14,670,000

37,108,000

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

Births Deaths Net Int'l Migration Population

Projected United States Population Growth by Component 2015-2030




3.1% 3.2% 4.0%

5.5%

9.1%

17.7%

18.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Connecticut Rhode Island Maine Massachusetts Vermont U.S. NewHampshire

Projected Population Growth 2010-2030

New England vs. United States


New England: Slow Population Growth … except for New Hampshire


38,181 98,164

-17,583 -163,992

42,973

-452,195

1,338,678

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Under 5 years 5 to 13 years 14 to 17 years 18 to 24 years 25 to 44 years 45 to 64 years 65 years and over

Projected Population Growth by Age Cohort 2010-2030

New England

And aging rapidly


13.4%

-18.5%

4.9%

-51.1%

134.6%

16.8% 20.6%

3.8%

16.2%

2.3%

50.7%

6.4%

-60%

-10%

40%

90%

140%

190%

Under 18 years 18-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years 65-84 years 85+ years

Share of Projected Population Growth by Age Cohort 2010-2030

New England United States

About 20% of projected U.S. population growth are children … in New England only 13%



13.4%

-18.5%

4.9%

-51.1%

134.6%

16.8% 20.6%

3.8%

16.2%

2.3%

50.7%

6.4%

-60%

-10%

40%

90%

140%

190%




New England’s Young Adult population will shrink by nearly 19 percent … while it grows modestly in the U.S.


13.4%

-18.5%

4.9%

-51.1%

134.6%

16.8% 20.6%

3.8%

16.2%

2.3%

50.7%

6.4%

-60%

-10%

40%

90%

140%

190%




New England’s Prime Age population will shrink dramatically … while the U.S. experiences growth



13.4%

-18.5%

4.9%

-51.1%

134.6%

16.8% 20.6%

3.8%

16.2%

2.3%

50.7%

6.4%

-60%

-10%

40%

90%

140%

190%




Meanwhile, New England’s senior population will expand rapidly … its share of total population increasing more than twice as fast as the U.S.


How Might a Slow Growing, Rapidly Aging Population Affect New England?

Labor Force New Business State & Local Finance Public Service


With slow population growth and a rapidly aging population, much of New England could begin to experience critical labor shortages

o Example: Massachusetts will need 100,000 replacement workers in manufacturing over the next ten years … where will they come from?

With tight labor markets, will firms relocate to regions with a

more plentiful labor supply?

Economic Challenges


With an aging population and a dearth of prime age workers, what might happen to state and local revenue?

With an aging population, what will happen to the demand for

and cost of public services?

Appropriate public transportation for seniors Medical costs for retiring public employees Medicaid Costs Elder Services

Political Challenges

Can Boston attract Young Households and Young Workers to Counter these Trends?


801,444

697,197

641,071

562,994 574,283 589,141 617,594 625,087

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011

City of Boston Population 1950-2011

Boston finally growing again

Migration Patterns

Within the New England states, recent migration rates vary from state to state Within Massachusetts, in-migrants are coming to Metro Boston – 70% of migrants into Massachusetts move into Metro Boston Within Metro Boston, strong net in-migration from Foreign countries, New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island But net out-migration to New Hampshire, Florida, California, and Texas


In-Migration Out-Migration

Ratio of In-Migration to Out-Migration

New Hampshire 50,484 38,696 1.30

Vermont 24,431 20,056 1.22

Rhode Island 33,446 30,498 1.10

Connecticut 80,311 87,023 0.92

Massachusetts 142,577 158,156 0.90

Maine 27,523 38,574 0.71

Interstate Migration 2011-2012


In-Migration Out-Migration Net

Migration

Foreign 76,095 33,265 42,830

New York 90,127 54,694 35,433

Connecticut 42,504 26,158 16,346

New Jersey 33,132 21,132 12,000

Pennsylvania 23,725 16,901 6,824

Rhode Island 26,102 22,712 3,390

Texas 18,388 18,940 -552

California 60,403 61,997 -1,594

Florida 46,942 83,986 -37,044

New Hampshire 83,444 150,381 -66,937

Total - All Regions 685,198 672,439 12,759

Net Migration – Metro Boston 1996/7-2007/8


In-Migration to Metro Boston

Out-Migration from Metro

Boston Net Migration

New Hampshire 83,444 150,381 -66,937

Maine 18,108 27,382 -9,274

Vermont 8,065 7,423 642

Rhode Island 26,102 22,712 3,390

Connecticut 42,504 26,158 16,346

Net Migration – Metro Boston vs. New England 1996/7 – 2007/8


From To Massachusetts To Metro Boston

% into Metro

Boston Pennsylvania 28,543 23,725 83.1% New Hampshire 102,984 83,444 81.0% New Jersey 41,231 33,132 80.4% California 76,053 60,403 79.4% Maine 23,955 18,108 75.6% Foreign Countries 102,331 76,095 74.4% New York 127,455 90,127 70.7% Florida 80,588 46,942 58.2% Connecticut 88,260 42,504 48.2% Rhode Island 76,779 26,102 34.0%

Total - All States 970,925 685,198 70.6%

Metro Boston dominates In-Migration into Massachusetts 1996/7 – 2007/8

Greater Boston Population Trends

With its strong academic, medical, bioscience, high tech, convention, and financial services, the Boston metro area would seem to be a population magnet What is the reality?


4,050,857

4,306,692

4,457,728

4,558,000

4,683,000 4,750,000

3,600,000

3,800,000

4,000,000

4,200,000

4,400,000

4,600,000

4,800,000

5,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Population Growth 1990-2040

Greater Boston Status Quo Projection

6.3%

3.5%

2.2%

2.7%

1.4%

Source: Metropolitan Area Planning Council


2,515,509 2,542,797 2,508,775 2,526,326

1,146,306 1,271,064

1,439,975 1,511,728

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040

Labor Force 2010-2040


In Labor Force Not in Labor Force Source: Metropolitan Area Planning Council

BUT … extremely modest increase in Labor Force by 2040: +10,000 (0.3%)


4,050,857

4,306,692

4,457,728

4,662,000

4,888,000

5,019,000

3,600,000

3,800,000

4,000,000

4,200,000

4,400,000

4,600,000

4,800,000

5,000,000

5,200,000

5,400,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Population Growth 1990-2040

Greater Boston Stronger Region Projection

6.3%

3.5%

4.6%

4.8%

2.7%


Population Growth 2010-2030: 9.6% +430,000 2010-2040: 12.6% +561,000


2,515,509 2,616,337 2,642,502 2,690,308

1,146,306

1,294,123

1,480,270 1,568,766

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040

Labor Force 2010-2040


In Labor Force Not in Labor Force Source: Metropolitan Area Planning Council

Under Stronger Growth Projection, Labor Force increases by 174,000 by 2040: 6.9%


9.8%

3.5% 3.5%

8.1%

2.2%

4.1%

7.4%

2.7%

4.8%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

United States Greater Boston Status Quo Greater Boston Stronger Region

Projected Population Growth: United States vs. Greater Boston (Status Quo/Stronger Region)

2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030

With Stronger Regional Growth, population expands faster each decade – better than U.S. trend


-133,424

-31,311 -27,542

10,790

474,055

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1-19 20-34 35-54 55-64 65+

Population Growth by Age Cohort 2010-2040



Under Status Quo projection, still lose prime age workforce


-73,590

28,221 7,717

30,043

437,761

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

1-19 20-34 35-54 55-64 65+

Population Growth by Age Cohort 2010-2030



Only with the Stronger Growth Projection is there an increase in the Prime Age Workforce

What Does this Mean for Greater Boston?

Only if Boston can continue to outpace the national economy in output and employment growth will it be in a position to retain young people already here and attract a large number of others from around the country and abroad This will take a major effort to maintain the region’s economic competitiveness … providing ample job opportunity for newcomers

What does this mean for New England?

It all depends on whether Boston drains the rest of New England of young people … or once here, young Bostonians look to other states for their future … as appears to be the case today in New Hampshire (and Maine)


Boston’s strong economy and its universities attract a large number

of young workers to Greater Boston who stay here for schooling and

jobs – giving us the Stronger Region Projection

But once many of these young workers have families, they find the

cost of housing prohibitive in Greater Boston

As a result, they seek more affordable housing outside of Greater

Boston – migrating to other parts of Massachusetts, southern New

Hampshire, southern Maine, and perhaps Rhode Island

In this case, Boston’s impact on New England’s prosperity is

benign and symbiotic

Bluestone’s “Conjecture”


And if you are of the Democratic Party persuasion in Greater

Boston, you take solace in your loss … as once RED states New

Hampshire and Maine continue to switch into BLUE ones … the

consequence of liberal-leaning BLUE state Greater Boston

young families migrating to these states and exercising their

voting franchise there!

Bluestone’s Conjecture (Con’t)

Thank You

The Kitty and Michael Dukakis Center for Urban & Regional Policy conducts interdisciplinary research, in collaboration with civic leaders and scholars both within and beyond Northeastern University, to identify and implement real solutions to the critical challenges facing urban areas throughout Greater Boston, the Commonwealth, and the nation. Founded in 1999 as a “think and do” tank, the Dukakis Center’s collaborative research and problem-solving model applies powerful data analysis, multidisciplinary research and evaluation techniques, and a policy-driven perspective to address a wide range of issues facing cities, towns, and suburbs, with a particular emphasis on the greater Boston region. The Dukakis Center works to catalyze broad-based efforts to solve urban problems, acting as both a convener and a trusted and committed partner to local, state, and national agencies and organizations. In November 2008 the Center was renamed in honor of Kitty and Michael Dukakis for the extraordinary work that both of them have done to make the City of Boston, the Commonwealth, and the nation a better place to live and work.

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Demography Informs Destiny! The Case of Greater · PDF fileDemography Informs Destiny! The Case of Greater Boston Dukakis Center for Urban & Regional Policy . Northeastern University